Article: Buxton a Star in Center and 9th

[akmanak]

We know that Buxton has a problem with the head games sometimes. He is a streaky player and I think it is to early to move him anywhere yet. If he continues doing what he is doing for the month of May than move him up a couple of spots, but it is nice to have someone who can bat at the bottom of the order.

[twins1095]

I’m fine with him staying where he is for a few more weeks to continue to allow him to build moment in a low stress way.

 

I do like playing around with some ideas that I think we could see as the season goes on if Buxton can continue to hit .265+ or so.

 

- Leadoff against LHPs. Baldelli has explored moving Kepler down against LHPs. Could be a nice strategy to give Buxton a feel for the leadoff spot and see how he handles it.

 

-#7? when the roster is healthy, against RHPs

 

Kepler, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Cruz, Cron, Buxton, Garver, Schoop

 

That would be interesting.

 

Buxton, Polanco, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Cron, Garver, Schoop looks DEEP.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's a streaky hitter. In case anyone has forgotten, his BA had regressed to below .250 just a week ago; now he's been on fire. Now that he's hot, there is all this clamoring for him to be the leadoff hitter.

League non-pitcher BA is .249 this year. I don't think "regressing below .250" is all that meaningful, especially when you're still picking up walks and XBH.

 

Buxton's only once had consecutive hitless starts this season, when the whole lineup was cold vs Houston (and he only had 3 PA in each of those games, by virtue of batting 9th). I don't think he's been particularly streaky this year at all.

[Thebigalguy]

If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. Yes, Kepler’s OBP isn’t sky high, but Polanco compensates in the two spot. Kepler as leadoff is an odd choice, but we can’t argue with the results so far. I say tinker with the lineup when the inevitable team slump comes to pass. Until then? Play ball!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Don't look now but Byron Buxton is 15th among all MLB position players in fWAR (1.8) with about 40 fewer PA than most of those ahead of him. On pace to be a 6+ WAR player.

I swear I just checked yesterday and it said he was 1.3 fWAR for the season, which is about a 5 WAR full season pace. I guess he did increase his season total of wRAA (weighted runs above average) by almost 30% last night. Was there anything special about his 5 putouts in the field?

[Yossarian]

Just swap Kepler and Bux between the 1- and 9-holes versus righties and lefties.  Can't ignore the L/R splits on these two guys.  Rocco's resting Max against lefties anyway.

[nicksaviking]

I was an advocate for Buxton to move up early, but since everyone is hitting, I don't know that I much care. If I was going to move him up, I'd probably put him in the #2 hole and have Polanco lead off though.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I swear I just checked yesterday and it said he was 1.3 fWAR for the season, which is about a 5 WAR full season pace. I guess he did increase his season total of wRAA (weighted runs above average) by almost 30% last night. Was there anything special about his 5 putouts in the field?

You are correct. It was a strange jump. Maybe they got some new statcast data or updated their algorithm? I mean, he had a good game, but not THAT good.

[Don Walcott]

Kepler is not leading off against lefties at all. So we should only be using his statistics against righties to analyze his position in the batting order. Not that I'm a huge fan of Kepler batting leadoff. In fact, I've already made my opinion known elsewhere that Buxton should be leading off. Just want the debate to be based on accurate information.

[Joe A. Preusser]

If he keeps hitting like he has in the month of May for the majority of the remaining season, yes... I agree. His April wasn't bad either, and certainly light years above his previous Aprils, but it wasn't exceptional. I still think calling him a star is a pre-mature. I'd like to see more out of him than good numbers over a month and a half being propelled by a 2 week hot streak before I start using that term. I've seen too many comparisons to Trout over the years to let a good 6 week start get me overly excited.

 

Right now, he wouldn't be the top MVP candidate on this team. That would be Polanco, and I suspect Garver would be rated higher in the national circuits as well (at least until the recent injury).

Oh, I agree, there's definately a longevity component to "Star" status and MVP consideration. I only meant that if his slash line ends the year what it is now, and his counting stats continue to count, I would expect his name to figure prominantly in the MVP discussion. As to your point about Garver amd Polanco...I agree, and I would just say that sometimes it feels real, real good to have problems like that

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Oh, I agree, there's definately a longevity component to "Star" status and MVP consideration. I only meant that if his slash line ends the year what it is now, and his counting stats continue to count, I would expect his name to figure prominantly in the MVP discussion. As to your point about Garver amd Polanco...I agree, and I would just say that sometimes it feels real, real good to have problems like that

 

It feels great.... I hope we get this feeling all season long. 

[Craig Arko]

I-I-I...

I’m hooked on a feeling,

I’m high on believing,

 

That you’re my MVP!

[Riverbrian]

Managers will often put a decent bat in the 9 spot to feed the top of the order.

 

This makes perfect sense but it only makes sense if you have a crappy 8 hitter that isn't capable of feeding the top of the order. We don't seem to have a crappy 8 hitter at the moment. 

 

And it only makes sense if the #1 #2 and #3 hitters are good enough to be fed. This point becomes really debatable when the #9 hitter is out hitting the #1 hitter. 

 

I honestly think we are looking at a manager who likes consistency in the batting order and I don't care much for that.

 

I Just don't see the damage caused by moving players around in the batting order. 

[Doomtints]

Give him at least half a year before moving him up.

[Don Walcott]

Against RHP, Kepler's OBP is .336. His OPS is .853. He doesn't lead off against lefties.

 

Against RHP, Buxton's OBP is .314. His OPS is .827.

 

I still think Buxton should be leading off. But these statistics don't demand that he replace Kepler against righties.

Edited May 17, 2019 by Don Walcott

[Mr. Brooks]

Against RHP, Kepler's OBP is .336. His OPS is .853. He doesn't lead off against lefties.

 

Against RHP, Buxton's OBP is .314. His OPS is .827.

 

I still think Buxton should be leading off. But these statistics don't demand that he replace Kepler against righties.

Sure, but why not against lefties?

[Don Walcott]

 

Sure, but why not against lefties?

Why not, period? DIdn't I just say that I think Buxton should be leading off?

[Mr. Brooks]

Why not, period? DIdn't I just say that I think Buxton should be leading off?

Sorry, missed that the first time.

[ewen21]

 

Me thinks it's a bit too early to use the term Star and Buxton in the same sentence. He's got elite defense and (right now) a better than average bat in SSS... I'd like to seem more July-Sept 2017 Buxton before I use the term star to describe him. 

I agree.  STAR to me is if he can do what he did at the end of 2017 through an entire season. 

We are six weeks into the season.  Can we wait and see where he is as we head into the dog days of summer?  Last year he hit about what I weighed as a sophomore in high school.  The stench of that is quickly subsiding, but can we pump the breaks on needing to label him STAR?

 

 

 

[Don Walcott]

 

I agree.  STAR to me is if he can do what he did at the end of 2017 through an entire season. 

We are six weeks into the season.  Can we wait and see where he is as we head into the dog days of summer?  Last year he hit about what I weighed as a sophomore in high school.  The stench of that is quickly subsiding, but can we pump the breaks on needing to label him STAR?

I'd like to see what he's doing now, through the end of the season. I think he's a star. Obviously, if you don't like him you never have to call him a star . . . ever.

[USAFChief]

I-I-I...

I’m hooked on a feeling,

I’m high on believing,

 

That you’re my MVP!

Ooh ga chah ga

Ooh ga chah ga

[jokin]

 

>I like Kepler and like his potential but having him lead off may be putting too much pressure on him - kind of like when Molitor batted Buxton 3rd. 

 

>I say move Kepler down the lineup and either Gonzalez or Buxton up. I like Gonzalez in the 2 hole behind Polanco with Kepler hitting 6 or 7.  

 

THESE! (for now, anyway, or Arraez, if he sticks past today.)

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Managers will often put a decent bat in the 9 spot to feed the top of the order.

 

 

What?

[Riverbrian]

What?

Since Managers tend to put their best hitters at the top of the order. Many Managers will put a guy with some talent in the 9 spot to feed the ultra talented guys at the top of the order. There are many managers who put their worst hitter in the 8 spot instead.

 

Larussa and Maddon would/will frequently bar their pitcher in the 8th spot as a dramatic example.

[SwainZag]

 

Since Managers tend to put their best hitters at the top of the order. Many Managers will put a guy with some talent in the 9 spot to feed the ultra talented guys at the top of the order. There are many managers who put their worst hitter in the 8 spot instead.

Larussa and Maddon would/will frequently bar their pitcher in the 8th spot as a dramatic example.

 

Which is why I shake my head when I see suggestions that Buck be moved up to 7th in the lineup.  If he isn't batting in the top two positions in the lineup I would much rather see him at 9 where is batting in front of those guys.

[Riverbrian]

Which is why I shake my head when I see suggestions that Buck be moved up to 7th in the lineup. If he isn't batting in the top two positions in the lineup I would much rather see him at 9 where is batting in front of those guys.

I always type the disclaimer that I don’t care about the batting order that much.

 

With that said. I absolutely get the concept and have no problem with it in theory but in our case. Does Kepler fit that ultra top of order mold to be fed by a Buxton in the 9 hole. Polanco and Cruz you bet. When your 9 is out producing your 1... you got it backwards. Especially when Cruz is our and now Buxton is feeding Kepler and Marwin. In that case you just have Buxton hitting after Adrianza for example and Buxton our producing the guys he is trying to feed.

 

But... in the end I don’t worry about the order that much. My thing that I watch is a somewhat permanent slotting or a template that is only deviated from slightly. I just don’t see any harm batting Buxton wherever in an effort to get him an extra PA during a given game.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Since Managers tend to put their best hitters at the top of the order. Many Managers will put a guy with some talent in the 9 spot to feed the ultra talented guys at the top of the order. There are many managers who put their worst hitter in the 8 spot instead.

Larussa and Maddon would/will frequently bar their pitcher in the 8th spot as a dramatic example.

 

Your example is admittedly somewhat common in the NL because of the unique rules. There is basically no advantage to this in the AL.

[Riverbrian]

Your example is admittedly somewhat common in the NL because of the unique rules. There is basically no advantage to this in the AL.

If true... there is no reason for Buxton to bat 9th. He is currently out performing players slotted ahead of him.

 

I’d assume that AL teams have weaker hitters as well. Most Catchers for example and the 8th spot is where most catchers hit.

[SwainZag]

 

I always type the disclaimer that I don’t care about the batting order that much.

With that said. I absolutely get the concept and have no problem with it in theory but in our case. Does Kepler fit that ultra top of order mold to be fed by a Buxton in the 9 hole. Polanco and Cruz you bet. When your 9 is out producing your 1... you got it backwards. Especially when Cruz is our and now Buxton is feeding Kepler and Marwin. In that case you just have Buxton hitting after Adrianza for example and Buxton our producing the guys he is trying to feed.

But... in the end I don’t worry about the order that much. My thing that I watch is a somewhat permanent slotting or a template that is only deviated from slightly. I just don’t see any harm batting Buxton wherever in an effort to get him an extra PA during a given game.

 

Here are their 2019 stats against RHP.

 

Kepler - .258/.349/.508   with 22 K's in 149 PA 15%

Buxton - .238/.301/.467  with 31 K's in 133 PA or 24%

 

So no, against right handed pitching, Buxton is not outproducing Kepler while striking out nearly 10% less.  Now, Buxton is crushing left handed pitching this year, the problem is the Twins have seen very little left handed starting pitching.

Edited May 23, 2019 by SwainZag

[Riverbrian]

Here are their 2019 stats against RHP.

 

Kepler - .258/.349/.508 with 22 K's in 149 PA 15%

Buxton - .238/.301/.467 with 31 K's in 133 PA or 24%

 

So no, against right handed pitching, Buxton is not outproducing Kepler while striking out nearly 10% less. Now, Buxton is crushing left handed pitching this year, the problem is the Twins have seen very little left handed starting pitching.

We’ve seen enough left handed pitching for Buxton to overtake Kepler in overall stats and When we face lefthanders... Buxton still hits behind Kepler... If they are watching the splits.