Lev's Blueprint

[TheLeviathan]

Offseason:

 

Sign Marwin Gonzalez 3y/39M

Sign Brian Dozier 1y/8M

Sign RP Cody Allen 2 years/20M

Sign RP Kelvin Herrera 2 years/20M

Total additions by Free Agency - 41M

Trade:

Send SP Stephen Gonsalves, 1B Lewis Diaz, C Jason Castro, 2B Travis Blankenthorn to Arizona for Zack Grienke and 20M in salary relief (10M each of the next two years)

Send OF Trevor Larnoch, SP Blayne Enlow, SP Zack Littell to Texas for 1B/3B/OF Joey Gallo

Total financial additions by trade - 17M

Total offseason - 58M

Roster: (28.9M)

Catcher: Garver 600k

1B - Gallo 600k

2B - Dozier 8M

3B - Gonzalez 13M

SS - Polanco 600k

DH - Sano 3.1M

OF - Kepler 3.2M

OF - Buxton 1.2M

OF - Rosario 5M

Bench: Cave, Adrianza, Austin, Austidillo (Total 3.6M)

 

vs. RHP - Dozier, Polanco, Gallo, Sano, Rosario, Gonzalez, Kepler, Garver, Buxton

vs. LHP - Dozier, Polanco, Sano, Gonzalez, Austin, Buxton, Rosario, Austidillo, Kepler

Rotation: (47.4)

Grienke 21.5M (10M from D-backs)

Berrios 600k

Gibson 7.9M

Odorizzi 9.4M

Pineda/Romero/Mejia 8M

Bullpen (32.5)

Allen 10

Herrera 10

Rogers 1.6

Hildy 600k

Reed 8.5

May 1.1

Moya 600k

 

Total payroll - $124M (According to the blueprint tvangle made for me!)

[luckylager]

Let's move on from Dozier. 

[Mr. Brooks]

No thanks to Dozier, especially for $8 million. I think he's cooked. Maybe a non guaranteed ST invite, but nothing more.

[Squirrel]

I’m going to ask this with everyone’s blueprint, as I just did above in the blueprint thread ... where is Mejia? He’s out of options and too good to just let go, yet isn’t ‘top end’ guy but he’s a lefty. He will have to slot in somewhere.

 

And I agree with the no thanks to Dozier. I’d rather see Lowrie or Forsythe at this point, but I think moving Polanco to 2nd and acquiring a better SS will give us better strength up the middle.

[RedBull34]

Would AZ accept that deal for Grienke?  Color me skeptical.  If MN took on the whole salary then yea, but Castro is basically in there as salary offset as well...

[USAFChief]

Not bad, but agree AZ isnt helping with salary AND taking Castro. I do think Grienke is workable though, and IMO someone's going to get a bargain on Dozier, might as well be us.

[gunnarthor]

I think the trades are a bit light but I like the general idea of seeing if Gallo is available. 

[Riverbrian]

I think the plan is solid. I have no problem with Dozier coming back on a one year deal but as I have stated numerous times... Not without an alternative for the three months that he struggles.

 

I’d like to see you add a player for that purpose replacing Adrianaza and you left enough money room on the books to do it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Not bad, but agree AZ isnt helping with salary AND taking Castro. I do think Grienke is workable though, and IMO someone's going to get a bargain on Dozier, might as well be us.

 

tend to agree. Think Dozier could be a bargain. One bad season does not equal cooked. And I agree we can get Zach.

 

I'd have a tougher time with the Gallo trade though 

[nicksaviking]

Whether we want Dozier or not, I kind of feel he'd like to move on. 

 

I'm probably on an island on this one, but I'm not a big Gallo fan. I think he goes from Khris Davis to Chris Davis before too long.

[TheLeviathan]

I think Dozier might be cooked too, but I'm just looking for a place-holder that might have some value.  I'll roll the dice.

 

It's always hard to predict trade costs, but I don't think I'm as far off as people think on Grienke.  It's a ton of money to take on.  (And AZ has a black hole at catch, Castro isn't a straight dump)

[zenser]

Do the Twins have room to add more of a financial commitment to a Greinke deal?  If so, what would a trade look like to take on 70/80/90/100 percent of his contract?  Doesn't he have approximately 3 years, 100 million left?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Do the Twins have room to add more of a financial commitment to a Greinke deal?  If so, what would a trade look like to take on 70/80/90/100 percent of his contract?  Doesn't he have approximately 3 years, 100 million left?

 

Yes, easily.  My blueprint has him and the payroll sits at 125M.  Nick's was 150M without Grienke.

[RedBull34]

 

Whether we want Dozier or not, I kind of feel he'd like to move on. 

 

I'm probably on an island on this one, but I'm not a big Gallo fan. I think he goes from Khris Davis to Chris Davis before too long.

Nah, I'm right there with you.  I'm definetly a bigger fan of OBP then AVG, but I just can't ever see myself wanting to sign someone whose career average is less then .225. (His career OBP is .317, so it's not that impressive)

[Mike Sixel]

Gallo is a tough call......I am not sure how I feel about that.

 

I like the Greinke idea, just another guy they could have had before just for money.......

 

I have zero interest in a Dozier reunion. Not a fan at this point, and he'll just be unhappy being on a team that "doesn't care about winning" enough for him....IMO.

[nicksaviking]

It would be nice if we had a beat writer who could find out if Greinke would waive is no-trade clause to come to Minnesota. I'd like him, but I have my doubts he likes Minnesota.

 

But this team doesn't have any beat writers any more so I guess we'll have to rely on other markets to get our intel second hand.

[TheLeviathan]

On Gallo - I like htat he is an option at 1B, 3B, LF, RF.  Along with Gonzalez that gives the Twins a ton of flexibility.  And a legit slugger.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I’m going to ask this with everyone’s blueprint, as I just did above in the blueprint thread ... where is Mejia? He’s out of options and too good to just let go, yet isn’t ‘top end’ guy but he’s a lefty. He will have to slot in somewhere.

And I agree with the no thanks to Dozier. I’d rather see Lowrie or Forsythe at this point, but I think moving Polanco to 2nd and acquiring a better SS will give us better strength up the middle.

 

Mejia is in the mix for the fifth starter spot on my roster.  

 

I did think about Iglesias over Dozier.  You might even be able to swap them under this plan for about the same price.  But I do like the possibility of Dozier having one last gasp here and I see a spot needed for Lewis or Gordon soon.  I'm not sure I want to lock into a guy like Iglesias who is not a good hitter and his defense may start to erode soon.

[lukeduke1980]

I applaud any blueprint because they take thought to put together and they're fun to read and easy to sit on the sidelines and pick apart...that being said I think this team strikes out 800 times just between Gallo, Sano, Buxton, and Dozier

[Lonestar]

You're way overpaying for Gallo

[TheLeviathan]

If I did this again...I'd for sure be trading for Sonny Gray.  Some team is going to rescue him from the NY bandbox and get themselves a helluva pitcher for a decent price.

[gunnarthor]

 

If I did this again...I'd for sure be trading for Sonny Gray.  Some team is going to rescue him from the NY bandbox and get themselves a helluva pitcher for a decent price.

That's what they said about Phil Hughes ...

[TheLeviathan]

 

That's what they said about Phil Hughes ...

 

Fair, but check out his splits.  It's dramatic.

[AndrewG]

It would be nice if we had a beat writer who could find out if Greinke would waive is no-trade clause to come to Minnesota. I'd like him, but I have my doubts he likes Minnesota.

 

But this team doesn't have any beat writers any more so I guess we'll have to rely on other markets to get our intel second hand.

From my memory, he liked Milwaukee, so Minnesota shouldnt be much of a difference. I do know he likes to bat which would make him more likely to pick a national league team. And I believe he prefers going to smaller markets because of the pressure from big market media gives him bad anxiety. I thought I read that a few years ago but I’m not 100% certain on that though.

[AndrewG]

That's what they said about Phil Hughes ...

And we got him out of there and it worked... at first. Then the injuries came...

[rv78]

I'm not sure what the fascination is with Marwin Gonzalez. Outside of his 2017 season he isn't anything special. I'd much rather see the Twins pursue a outfielder like Michael Brantley or even Nick Markakis. Offensively they bring much more to the table. At this point with Cave and the signing of Reed I would consider both Grossman and Kepler expendable if you bring in Brantley or Markakis. Again, Cave showed more offensively than either one. The only reason why I would consider keeping Kepler is if Buxton ends up a bust again this season. Don't get me wrong, great defense is important but does it really do any good to save a run or two when you yourself can't score? I'd rather win 5 to 4 than lose 3 to 1. There were WAY TOO MANY games this year where the offense was pathetic. If Rosario or Escobar didn't produce they didn't score. Need to think run production and manufacturing runs. Waiting for the 3 run bomb when you can't get anyone on base doesn't work.

[Major League Ready]

This team looks to be about 7-8 wins better if all of the free agents perform. Allen and Herrera would both need to bounce back too because they had poor seasons. If it all works out that gets us to 84 wins. If Buxton and Sano both bounce back we would have a legit shot at winning the central which would be an incredible advancement in just 1 year.

 

I had to think about this plan overnight because it’s no small feat to put together a plan that can accomplish this within a viable payroll. My problem with this plan is two-fold. One is the overall risk and specifically the risk associated with Greinke. Betting on age 36-38 seasons for SPs is a very low probability bet. The second is trading away that many prospects for a very low probability of making the playoffs. None of the FA performed last year and all would have to perform plus Buxton and Sano would have to both bounce back significantly. The odds of all of these players performing as we would hope are very low.

 

I would go with Charlie Morton instead of Greinke, especially if he could be signed for 2 years. That would be his age 35-36 seasons as compared to age 36-38 for Greinke. Replace Gallo with Daniel Murphy and keep a role model around for the younger guys. Your original plan is 1-1.5 wins better if Greinke and Morton regress at the same rate but history would suggest Greinke’s regression would be more significant. These adjustments surrender no prospects, eliminates Greinke’s age 38 season, and adds veteran leadership.

 

*** There are a couple other viable 1B options I just like the idea of Murphy setting a good example. We have some guys prone to take really bad ABs and Mauer is not going to be around to demonstrate how it should be done.

[Squirrel]

This team looks to be about 7-8 wins better if all of the free agents perform. Allen and Herrera would both need to bounce back too because they had poor seasons. If it all works out that gets us to 84 wins. If Buxton and Sano both bounce back we would have a legit shot at winning the central which would be an incredible advancement in just 1 year.

 

I had to think about this plan overnight because it’s no small feat to put together a plan that can accomplish this within a viable payroll. My problem with this plan is two-fold. One is the overall risk and specifically the risk associated with Greinke. Betting on age 36-38 seasons for SPs is a very low probability bet. The second is trading away that many prospects for a very low probability of making the playoffs. None of the FA performed last year and all would have to perform plus Buxton and Sano would have to both bounce back significantly. The odds of all of these players performing as we would hope are very low.

 

I would go with Charlie Morton instead of Greinke, especially if he could be signed for 2 years. That would be his age 35-36 seasons as compared to age 36-38 for Greinke. Replace Gallo with Daniel Murphy and keep a role model around for the younger guys. Your original plan is 1-1.5 wins better if Greinke and Morton regress at the same rate but history would suggest Greinke’s regression would be more significant. These adjustments surrender no prospects, eliminates Greinke’s age 38 season, and adds veteran leadership.

 

*** There are a couple other viable 1B options I just like the idea of Murphy setting a good example. We have some guys prone to take really bad ABs and Mauer is not going to be around to demonstrate how it should be done.

This very well could be how they go, but I’m not sure what you consider a viable payroll? Could you set a budget and show where you’ve allocated your budget and to whom?

 

Also, I’m not against Murphy, completely, as a player. But he’s not a role model, imo, and should never be that given his stance on outside issues.

[nicksaviking]

 

From my memory, he liked Milwaukee, so Minnesota shouldnt be much of a difference. I do know he likes to bat which would make him more likely to pick a national league team. And I believe he prefers going to smaller markets because of the pressure from big market media gives him bad anxiety. I thought I read that a few years ago but I’m not 100% certain on that though.

 

I thought it was the opposite. I thought he wanted out of KC and wasn't thrilled when it turned out he was going to Milwaukee and even made a fuss about them not giving him his old uniform number.

 

But I could be wrong about all of that, my mental archives aren't maintained like they used to be when I could recall every baseball anecdote and list in order every member of the 3000 hit club.

[bird]

 

 

But I could be wrong about all of that, my mental archives aren't maintained like they used to be when I could recall every baseball anecdote and list in order every member of the 3000 hit club.

 

When my spouse first noticed this about me, I let her continue to think it was a case of improved priorities.