Lev's Blueprint

[jkcarew]

Nice piece!  Takes a good approach, IMO, for committing to go for it in 2019.

 

Gallo would be my nitpick.  Definitely addresses an immediate need.  But, either spend that package (or more) for something better than Gallo.  Or, spend less on Gallo.  At least I'd try hard for either of those outcomes, before I'd offer this package for Gallo.  He's not that valuable...OPS+ 108 (107 in 2018)...defensive flexibility large muted by the fact that he's a poor defender in the outfield.  

[Teddy]

 

Trade:

Send SP Stephen Gonsalves, 1B Lewis Diaz, C Jason Castro, 2B Travis Blankenthorn to Arizona for Zack Grienke and 20M in salary relief (10M each of the next two years)

 

Send OF Trevor Larnoch, SP Blayne Enlow, SP Zack Littell to Texas for 1B/3B/OF Joey Gallo

 

 

Neither of these trades make much sense to me. I'd have no problem giving up the four guys you mentioned in the first trade proposal, but I would rather offer that package for JT Realmuto than Greinke.

 

The second one gives up two top-15 prospects and a solid starter prospect for a strikeout machine.  No thanks.  Plenty of those types of guys available on the FA market looking for a one-year deal.

[mazeville]

 

I think he goes from Khris Davis to Chris Davis before too long.

 

Just came here to applaud this line. Bravo, sir. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Neither of these trades make much sense to me. I'd have no problem giving up the four guys you mentioned in the first trade proposal, but I would rather offer that package for JT Realmuto than Greinke.

 

The second one gives up two top-15 prospects and a solid starter prospect for a strikeout machine.  No thanks.  Plenty of those types of guys available on the FA market looking for a one-year deal.

 

Gallo is also a power hitting machine.  And I'd love ot get Realmuto for these packages too!

 

But that isn't realistic.  Realmuto is going to cost a LOT more.  I made a deliberate effort not to be the fan-boy poster who said "I know, let's get Bonds for a bag of peanuts!"  Most trade ideas on here are lowballs, I made a point to make sure my trades would be accepted by the other team.  If you think they're too high, that might be a reflection that they're realistic.

 

Though I understand not liking hte target.

[Major League Ready]

 

This very well could be how they go, but I’m not sure what you consider a viable payroll? Could you set a budget and show where you’ve allocated your budget and to whom?

Also, I’m not against Murphy, completely, as a player. But he’s not a role model, imo, and should never be that given his stance on outside issues.

 

Lev has already allocated the $$. I just made a couple adjustments that would leave the overall spend roughly the same depending on Arizona's willingness to eat salary.

 

In terms of what's a reasonable budget, Forbes old revenue and profit reports are no longer available. Averaging several years made it possible to make a fairly reasonable estimate of operating costs. I did find 2017 revenue and profits and of course we can always find starting payroll. What I don't have is 2018 revenue so I compared 2018 playoff teams against 2017 revenue. Of course, some of the teams like Milwaukee increased revenue in 2018 which overstates payroll as a percentage of income. Here's what we do know.

 

*** Payroll for all 30 teams averaged 45% of revenue in 2017 and 43% in 2018.

*** The 8 playoff teams from 2018 average 39.5 of 2017 revenue.

*** One team was over 50% (Astros 56.6) but I would guess their 2018 revenue increased from 2017. 

*** All others were under 50%

*** Five teams above 55% in 2017 (Miami 73% / Detroit 71% / Baltimore 63% / Toronto 57% KC 57%) 

 

I would say we should consider 50% fairly aggressive spending. The teams above 55% were train wrecks that had been competitive and generating high revenue and then fell off rapidly.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This team looks to be about 7-8 wins better if all of the free agents perform. Allen and Herrera would both need to bounce back too because they had poor seasons. If it all works out that gets us to 84 wins. If Buxton and Sano both bounce back we would have a legit shot at winning the central which would be an incredible advancement in just 1 year.

 

I had to think about this plan overnight because it’s no small feat to put together a plan that can accomplish this within a viable payroll. My problem with this plan is two-fold. One is the overall risk and specifically the risk associated with Greinke. Betting on age 36-38 seasons for SPs is a very low probability bet. The second is trading away that many prospects for a very low probability of making the playoffs. None of the FA performed last year and all would have to perform plus Buxton and Sano would have to both bounce back significantly. The odds of all of these players performing as we would hope are very low.

 

I would go with Charlie Morton instead of Greinke, especially if he could be signed for 2 years. That would be his age 35-36 seasons as compared to age 36-38 for Greinke. Replace Gallo with Daniel Murphy and keep a role model around for the younger guys. Your original plan is 1-1.5 wins better if Greinke and Morton regress at the same rate but history would suggest Greinke’s regression would be more significant. These adjustments surrender no prospects, eliminates Greinke’s age 38 season, and adds veteran leadership.

 

*** There are a couple other viable 1B options I just like the idea of Murphy setting a good example. We have some guys prone to take really bad ABs and Mauer is not going to be around to demonstrate how it should be done.

 

Honestly, this feels too Terry Ryan-ish to me.  People may not like my blueprint, but I went for upside.  

 

Morton and Murphy are floor-focused acquisitions.  I want ceiling-focused.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Nice piece!  Takes a good approach, IMO, for committing to go for it in 2019.

 

Gallo would be my nitpick.  Definitely addresses an immediate need.  But, either spend that package (or more) for something better than Gallo.  Or, spend less on Gallo.  At least I'd try hard for either of those outcomes, before I'd offer this package for Gallo.  He's not that valuable...OPS+ 108 (107 in 2018)...defensive flexibility large muted by the fact that he's a poor defender in the outfield.  

 

Fair points, but I think there is still room for Gallo to find that mega-stud he was once thought to be.  (His prospect rankings were Buxton-like) He's young with a ton of team control.

 

I think there is still a diamond there to be mined.  I'm gambling on upside.

[h2oface]

I feel sorry for Dozier. And that is not sarcasm. He didn't get paid when he was worth a hell of a lot more for three years before this last one, and now, with last year's performance, he isn't worth much going forward.

 

He might have to settle for around 5 million to play baseball this season. Damn. 5 million. And that is sarcasm... 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Too big a risk to trade Castro due to 1) Garver's concussion this past season and due to 2) the drop-off in the Twins' depth chart after Astudillo...and 3) Astudillo is a little iffy if he were to become our primary catcher out of necessity. Don't get me wrong, I really like Astudillo, but I'm not ready to hand him the primary catcher job.

[Major League Ready]

 

Honestly, this feels too Terry Ryan-ish to me.  People may not like my blueprint, but I went for upside.  

 

Morton and Murphy are floor-focused acquisitions.  I want ceiling-focused.

 

I usually agree with you but not where Greinke is concerned. What are the odds of a SP not declining during his age 36-38 seasons? That's not an upside play. We heard the same arguments about trading Nolasco for Shields. Occasionally you get a Verlander or Clemens but the vast majority of times, age 36-38 is a downward spiral. He was good for 3.5 WAR last year at 35. 

 

You are right about Murphy vs Gallo. Gallo could conceivably improve his contact rate. Therefore, he could improve. Their is also a possibility he becomes Chris Davis as others have suggested. Davis was much better than Gallo and now he is one of the worst hitters in the league. I just can't justify trading away several prospects to get a 2.8 WAR player with serious warts when we already have a similar player in Austin, plus one of the best 1B prospects close to being ready in a year when these acquisitions are are unlikely to elevate us to win the division and when we would be decided underdogs against whomever we are up against in the playoffs. 

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

There are risks with every player.  Much like flexibility is RB's mantra, mine is "Invest in Upside"

 

Daniel Murphy is the milquetoast of 1B options and Morton is the same for SP.  I doubt Milwaukee was thrilled to give 1B to Jesus Aguilar....but how'd that turn out?  Hell, the Twins weren't bending over backwards to give Escobar or Dozier chances and look how that turned out.  

 

When you have an opening, I'd much rather invest that opportunity into a player that might make a big impact rather than a serviceable place-holder.  My blueprint is filled with upside - Sano, Buxton, Gallo, Dozier, Austidillo, Sonny Gray, Cody Allen, etc.  That also means the downside is larger, but I'm cool with that.  I'm done being safe with signings, I'd rather miss or hit big.

[darin617]

 

You're way overpaying for Gallo

Yup, besides the fact of he struck out twice as often as he got a hit. .206 BA no thanks.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I usually agree with you but not where Greinke is concerned. What are the odds of a SP not declining during his age 36-38 seasons? That's not an upside play. We heard the same arguments about trading Nolasco for Shields. Occasionally you get a Verlander or Clemens but the vast majority of times, age 36-38 is a downward spiral. He was good for 3.5 WAR last year at 35. 

 

You are right about Murphy vs Gallo. Gallo could conceivably improve his contact rate. Therefore, he could improve. Their is also a possibility he becomes Chris Davis as others have suggested. Davis was much better than Gallo and now he is one of the worst hitters in the league. I just can't justify trading away several prospects to get a 2.8 WAR player with serious warts when we already have a similar player in Austin, plus one of the best 1B prospects close to being ready in a year when these acquisitions are are unlikely to elevate us to win the division and when we would be decided underdogs against whomever we are up against in the playoffs. 

 

You rarely seem to want to add anyone in FA or trades (since it is usually only older players available).....not doing that has netted the Twins zero playoff round victories in decades.