Twins projected arb salaries

[gunnarthor]

From mlbtrade rumors,

 

They project the Twins to spend 38.3m on arb for 10 players. It that is accurate, that would put the teams total payroll at just shy of 70m.* Assuming ownership keeps payroll roughly even, they'd have about 55-60m to spend in FA this offseason.

 

Jake Odorizzi – $9.4MM
Kyle Gibson – $7.9MM
Eddie Rosario – $5.0MM
Robbie Grossman – $4.0MM
Max Kepler – $3.2MM
Miguel Sano – $3.1MM
Ehire Adrianza – $1.8MM
Taylor Rogers – $1.6MM
Byron Buxton – $1.2MM
Trevor May – $1.1MM

 

Grossman (4m) and Adrianaza (1.8m) seem the most likely to be released out of the list although Odorizzi is making a lot of money, too.

 

 

* Assuming Morrison's contract is not picked up and counting the 5m+ for Hughes.

[Mike Sixel]

Zero reason to keep Grossman at that price. Zero. He's replacement level. If Wade or Cave or whomever is meh, for 500K, that's a much better use of resources. Plus, if you have guys with options, you can do something with them, as opposed to Grossman. Zero reason he should be on the roster at that price. 

 

I'd probably keep Odo, though if Pineda is healthy, I'm good with him being traded for almost anything, and using that money on a better option. I'm not good with just pocketing that money......

 

The rest are keepers, imo.

[MABB1959]

Since next year may be similar to this I would not keep Odorizzi and bring up Romero instead. 

[old nurse]

I would expect Grossman and Adrianza will be offered a slight raise and if they do not take it the will be released.

[Vanimal46]

Grossman at $4 million is laughable. No way no how should he get a contract like that. Adrianza is still cheap for a utility guy but I would aim higher for a real rotating starter who can play all over the field like Marwin Gonzalez.

[Thrylos]

 

I would expect Grossman and Adrianza will be offered a slight raise and if they do not take it the will be released.

 

It does not work like that.  You either offer them arbitration (and make a deal or exchange figures) or you non-tender them.   Cannot offer them something and then if they don't like it non-tender them.  Any offer is binding to accept arbitration. 

 

That's the whole idea behind the arbitration system.

[howeda7]

I don't want Grossman back at any price. He's a bad defender and has no power. When he was hitting over .300 the second half he was tolerable, but we all know he's not doing that for a full season.

 

I would also pass on Odorizzi at that price. I'm guessing he gets more like $5m as free agent.

[howeda7]

 

 

It does not work like that.  You either offer them arbitration (and make a deal or exchange figures) or you non-tender them.   Cannot offer them something and then if they don't like it non-tender them.  Any offer is binding to accept arbitration. 

 

That's the whole idea behind the arbitration system.

If we non-tender Odorizzi, can we make him an offer afterwards just like every other team? IIRC it used to be that you couldn't re-sign your own free agents that you non-tendered until May 1st. Or at least they couldn't play until then. Not sure if that rule still exists.

[Winston Smith]

 

It does not work like that.  You either offer them arbitration (and make a deal or exchange figures) or you non-tender them.   Cannot offer them something and then if they don't like it non-tender them.  Any offer is binding to accept arbitration. 

 

That's the whole idea behind the arbitration system.

The team can get out of most of the contract during the spring by cutting the player, happens a lot.

 

Players on arbitration contracts who are cut on or before the 16th day of Spring Training are owed 30 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). A player cut between the 16th day and the end of Spring Training is owed 45 days' termination pay (based on the prorated version of his agreed-upon arbitration salary). The arbitration salary becomes guaranteed if the player is on the 25-man roster when the season begins.

[jorgenswest]

I would not tender Grossman either but I do think he will be projected to have a better OPS next year than either Cave or certainly Wade.

 

I think the Twins need to seek a clear upgrade and that player isn’t on the roster.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I would not tender Grossman either but I do think he will be projected to have a better OPS next year than either Cave or certainly Wade.

I think the Twins need to seek a clear upgrade and that player isn’t on the roster.

 

great, what about his defense, and expense compared to them? And, there is ZERO upside, at least Cave or Wade could surprise us......

 

edit: I'm sure he'll switch bats, adopt a launch angle approach, and hit 30 bombs.....on another team.....but I'm willing to take that chance....

[howeda7]

 

great, what about his defense, and expense compared to them? And, there is ZERO upside, at least Cave or Wade could surprise us......

And as far as his OPS, his breathtaking ability to draw a walk with a runner on 3rd and one out is appreciated and all, but it's over-rated.

[ND-Fan]

If they keep these people plus some pre arb people I figured there salary already around about 69 million for next year before they add any people. Even filling in their needs for next year their salary is going to at least 80 million quite easily. If they sign any major free agents or trade for a proven player their payroll could easily reach  100 million. Which I think where ownership doesn't want to me for next year I believe they want to be around the 80 million mark. This leads me to that the Twins are not going to be in the free agent market except for their basic needs to be filled on the team.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If they keep these people plus some pre arb people I figured there salary already around about 69 million for next year before they add any people. Even filling in their needs for next year their salary is going to at least 80 million quite easily. If they sign any major free agents or trade for a proven player their payroll could easily reach  100 million. Which I think where ownership doesn't want to me for next year I believe they want to be around the 80 million mark. This leads me to that the Twins are not going to be in the free agent market except for their basic needs to be filled on the team.

 

If they are at 80MM....wow. that would be sad and bad. But, hey, they can buy another yacht or two.....with their tax subsidized stadium....

[ewen21]

 

Zero reason to keep Grossman at that price. Zero. He's replacement level. 

I know some Twins fans who have so kind of cult hero thing going on with Grossman.  We really need to get away from that kind of thing as a fanbase.  IT was sort of the same thing going on with Punto.  Mediocre players who held in high esteem.  Are we trying to be the cutest team in baseball?

Sheesh

[Thrylos]

 

If they are at 80MM....wow. that would be sad and bad. But, hey, they can buy another yacht or two.....with their tax subsidized stadium....

 

Their stadium is going to buy them a yacht (or two?)

[old nurse]

 

It does not work like that.  You either offer them arbitration (and make a deal or exchange figures) or you non-tender them.   Cannot offer them something and then if they don't like it non-tender them.  Any offer is binding to accept arbitration. 

 

That's the whole idea behind the arbitration system.

I was not aware that a team could not negotiate with a player before the December date to offer arbitration. I really don't think that is the case. When players loke Ortiz were released, Ryan did not talk to them about contracts first?

[TheLeviathan]

Grossman at $4 million is laughable. No way no how should he get a contract like that. Adrianza is still cheap for a utility guy but I would aim higher for a real rotating starter who can play all over the field like Marwin Gonzalez.

If you sign Marwin Gonzalez it does literally nothing to change Adrianza's status. He's a fine bench piece.

 

I probably tender all of them but Grossman.

 

That's only 33M for a third of your roster. Another third is making pennies. Leaving a lot of money to play with.

[Dozier's Glorious Hair]

Dang, Grossman's taking a beating here. To be clear: Grossman has had a .371 OBP over the past three seasons and that certainly has value. That said, I'm not sure where he fits on the 2019 Twins roster, particularly at $4 million.

 

All of the other guys should remain with the team, even the surprisingly pricey Odorizzi.

[yarnivek1972]

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

[jorgenswest]

great, what about his defense, and expense compared to them? And, there is ZERO upside, at least Cave or Wade could surprise us......

 

edit: I'm sure he'll switch bats, adopt a launch angle approach, and hit 30 bombs.....on another team.....but I'm willing to take that chance....

Huh? I would not tender Grossman so I really don’t get the response. I want a clear upgrade. I want a really good bat.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Non-tender Grossman and trade-for/ sign a RF push Kepler into the 4th outfielder role/Buxton insurance.

 

Non-tender Adrianza. There’s a bunch of middle infield FAs available this offseason. Forsythe as utility isn’t all bad. There’s options.

 

The bullpen needs improvement badly, as do SS and 3b/1b but that’s another subject

[Winston Smith]

 

Non-tender Grossman and trade-for/ sign a RF push Kepler into the 4th outfielder role/Buxton insurance.

Non-tender Adrianza. There’s a bunch of middle infield FAs available this offseason. Forsythe as utility isn’t all bad. There’s options.

The bullpen needs improvement badly, as do SS and 3b/1b but that’s another subject

Sign Cutch he's still a decent player, let Cave, Buxton and Kepler fight it out in the spring 2 make the team one goes to AAA as ins.

[Seth Stohs]

 

I was not aware that a team could not negotiate with a player before the December date to offer arbitration. I really don't think that is the case. When players loke Ortiz were released, Ryan did not talk to them about contracts first?

 

They absolutely can negotiate before offering arbitration. Teams do it often, even if not official. 

 

Using Adrianza as an example, maybe the Twins go to his representatives and say "We'll offer 1 year, $1.4 million." The representative can say Yes and accept that deal. Or, the representative/agent can talk to Adrianza and they decide not to accept that offer. Then the Twins would non-tender him rather than tender him a contract on that particular day. He'd then be a free agent. 

 

Once they offer arbitration, they can't go back on it, though as other people have said, those arbitration agreements are not fully guaranteed until whatever day it is before the season starts. 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Kinda curious as to what kind of track record mlbtraderumors has for this. Kepler and Sano seem pretty high for two guys that haven’t done much. Sano at his best in 2017 was a 2.5 bWAR. He was a train wreck this year. Kepler was 2.0 in 2017 and 2.8 in 2018. I was figuring about $2.25 mil or so for each.

 

2.5 WAR is a pretty valuable player, easily worthy of that number... And Kepler was at 2.8 fWAR this year despite the low batting average. 

 

MLB Trade Rumors has a really good track record. I'm sure there is some plus-minus factor, but they use arbitration history and other things to figure it all out. 

[beckmt]

Odorizzi and Rosario seemed high to me, but do not totally know the market.  Twins need to take care of the core and that means signing Rosario and Berrios to extensions before they get too close to free agency.  

I would look long and hard at whether I would tender Oderrizi at that rate, my guess is the Twins will and see what happens.  They can cut there losses in spring training or with a trade if better options appear.

[RatherBeGolfing]

Grossman lol

 

Thanks for the memories buddy, but no way

[rdehring]

I don't get all the dislike of Grossman.  If memory serves, and it doesn't always anymore, he hit much better during the later part of the season when he was getting regular playing time.  Many gripe about his defense.  OK, he isn't great.  But he also doesn't seem to be as bad as he was a couple years ago when his D was a liability.  So I don't see his D as a liability, just not a positive.

 

As for his place on this team, I see him as the last guy on the squad.  If they can keep 13 position players next year, he either has a spot or is fighting with Astudillo for that last spot.  Expect those decisions get made the end of March...not now.  If he doesn't make the cut, they can either release him or work out a deal with someone who values what he brings to the team.

[diehardtwinsfan]

not sure where I put Grossman. I think Cave has earned that spot to be honest. I guess the question for me is what is the plan with Buxton. I'd probably start him in the minors, but I don't think I want Grossman as my primary backup or Cave as my primary starter in that scenario. I'd probably get someone on a 1 year make good deal, non-tender Grossman, and let Cave have another year as the 4th OF. Grossman is getting a bit too expensive, and he was a black hole to start 2018. Maybe it was just bad luck, but he was always marginal talent and is at an age where his talent may not get him by like it has the last few seasons.

 

On the flip side, they should have a good 40M to spend. I hope they do what they did last year and pick up a bunch of guys that can help them contend. Worst case, they can flip them at the deadline again.. at least the ones on short deals. I do hope they pick up a couple of longer term deals. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

BTW, Adrianza as a backup is fine. His bat isn't bad for a SS and he has a decent glove. I woudln't want to count on him as a starter, but he's a much better option than a lot of MI backups around the league.