Article: BOS 3, MIN 0: Fenway Free Fall Continues

[Tom Froemming]

Doesn’t Thursday night feel like so long ago? The Twins won 2-1 in Boston behind an superb start from Kyle Gibson. Then came the trades. Then the walk-off loss. Then the blowout loss. To complete the three-day nosedive, the Twins got shut out Sunday afternoon. It’s worth noting the Red Sox are the best team in baseball, but this was still a depressing weekend to endure.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Jose Berrios: 41 Game Score, 4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K, 3 BB, 57.5% strikes

Home Runs: None.

Multi-Hit Games: None.

WPA of 0.1 or higher: None

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Dozier -.193

Download attachment: WinChart729.png

Let’s go around the horn …

 

First Base

Just back on July 13, the Twins dismantled Nathan Eovaldi, who was pitching for the Rays at the time. They scored eight runs and forced him to throw 65 pitches in just 2 ⅔ innings. We sure this was the same guy?

 

Eovaldi, making his debut with the Red Sox, was an absolute buzzsaw Sunday afternoon. He threw seven shutout innings, giving up just four hits without walking a single batter. It took him just 82 pitches, 62 of which were strikes (76.8 percent).

 

Second Base

Jose Berrios was on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. He lasted just 4 2/3 innings and needed 106 pitches to do so. He only gave up three runs, but it could’ve been much worse. The Red Sox tallied nine hits and drew three walks off Jose. A moral victory isn’t much of a consolation, but it was nice to see him wiggle out of some trouble.

 

Third Base

Adalberto Mejia was impressive. Even with Berrios struggling, this was still a winnable game. Gabriel Moya recorded the last out of the fifth inning before Mejia kept the best lineup in baseball silent for the final three frames. He gave up just one hit, did not walk a batter and struck out four.

 

I’d be willing to bet for his efforts Mejia will get a one-way ticket back to Rochester. Seems to be the way things have been going this year.

 

Home Plate

The bats couldn’t get anything going. Miguel Sano is going to be under the microscope, and deservingly so. He was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, but it’s not like his teammates did much better. The Twins had just four hits: singles from Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman and Jake Cave to go with a double by Eddie Rosario.

 

So ends a series which started so positive and ends on a low. One brilliant game from the Twins followed by a walk off, a blowout and now this frustrating affair. There’s not much to say in losing a series to a great Red Sox team in Fenway, but toss the trades into the equation (even if they brought back good value) and these last three days have been a tough pill to swallow.

 

Knowing this 2018 Twins team, they’ll probably follow this up by sweeping Cleveland.

 

Bullpen Usage

Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Download attachment: Bullpen729.png

AL Central Standings

CLE 56-47

MIN 48-56 (-8.5)

DET 45-61 (-12.5)

CHW 37-67 (-19.5)

KE 32-72 (-24.5)

 

Next Three Games

Mon vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: Ervin Santana vs. Shane Bieber

Tue vs. CLE, 7:10 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Trevor Bauer

Wed vs. CLE, 12:10 pm CT: Lance Lynn vs. Carlos Carrasco

 

Last Three Games

BOS 10, MIN 4: Twins Blow Lead in Spectacular Fashion

BOS 4, MIN 3: No Escobar, but at Least We Still Have Belisle

MIN 2, BOS 1: Gibby the Great

 

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[ashbury]

Knowing this 2018 Twins team, they’ll probably follow this up by sweeping Cleveland.

Knowing this 2018 Twins team, you're going to make any prediction at all?

[mickeymental]

remember that second game in puerto rico? that was awesome!

[Han Joelo]

Good thing those trades brought valu back.  Always go with the value pack of wall hangers, even if it means trading your best painting to get them.

 

On the plus side--they look new and shiny!

[mikelink45]

Speechless.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I know long relief stats are suspect, but:

 

When this start was still "to be determined", I thought they might use Mejia so they could use Berrios against Cleveland tomorrow. Maybe they should have... (It did seem weird to give Berrios so much rest before his first start coming out of the break, then carry 6 starters but not give him an extra day before his second start.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

So Morris's Hall of Fame induction ceremony was today (Sunday).

 

Why did Molitor have to miss Saturday's game too?

 

For that matter, why did he have to miss any? They played against each other in Legion ball as teenagers, and with each other during Morris's dreadful penultimate season of 1993. Not really seeing the personal connection worth missing two games as manager right before the trade deadline, and during a potential pennant race. (And before anyone cracks wise about the Twins current place in the standings, it was apparently announced some time ago that Molitor would miss these games.) Was it just for a photo op? Boston is only an hour away from Cooperstown by plane, they could have done that Saturday and gotten Molitor back in plenty of time for the 7 PM EST game. If he wants to talk at the ceremony on Sunday, he could Skype.

 

I actually think more managers/coaches/players should probably miss games for certain family activities, but this struck me as unnecessary.

 

Edit to add: But maybe I'm just in a bad mood about the 2018 season...

Edited July 29, 2018 by spycake

[7r4de me]

 

So Morris's Hall of Fame induction ceremony was today (Sunday).

Why did Molitor have to miss Saturday's game too?

For that matter, why did he have to miss any? 

he probably is trying to avoid having to tell guys they won't be suiting up for the twins anymore

the real question is why hasn't the fire sale continued? at this point, probably another half dozen guys that either need to or should be traded.

[Brandon]

Someone should make a Falvine I Surrender shirt.....i surrendered in 2017, and 2018, and got a head start on surrendering in 2019 by trading Pressley....

[h2oface]

It will be nice when Jose becomes more consistent. We need him to. He looked intimidated today.

 

Is Rodney traded yet?

[Ultima Ratio]

Free fall? Yep.  Definitely feels like 9.8m/s² of accelerating sadness.  Can't watch and if you open your eyes, you may have a heart attack before impact.

[VATwinsFan]

Meanwhile, Sano's strikeout rate is increasing:

 

For his last 30 games it is:       42.9%

 

For his last 15 games it is:       46.7%

 

For his last 7 games it is:         53.8%

 

For the season it is:                 45.8%

 

Ricky Vaughn question:                                   might he need glasses??

Edited July 30, 2018 by VATwinsFan

[mngopherguy]

We're blaming losses on the trades now?  Anyone remember Kansas City?  The FO absolutely did the right thing.  The Twins are not even .500!  

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

We're blaming losses on the trades now? Anyone remember Kansas City? The FO absolutely did the right thing. The Twins are not even .500!

Nor have they been since early May.

[Otto von Ballpark]

We're blaming losses on the trades now? Anyone remember Kansas City? The FO absolutely did the right thing. The Twins are not even .500!

Was .500 the required threshold? We were 13-8 and gained 2 games on Cleveland since Polanco came back (and that's not too cherry-picked, since we lost the first 3 games of that sample and fell 3 games further back, before making up 5).

 

If the front office required us to go 18-3 over that stretch to avoid selling... well, maybe we should have started selling sooner. (I guess many here will agree with that statement anyway but a lot us did want to see how the team responded once Polanco came back in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and the response from the team so far had been good. Erv too. Not perfect, but arguably enough to stave off selling.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

the real question is why hasn't the fire sale continued? at this point, probably another half dozen guys that either need to or should be traded.

It is the same all over the league. The best guys have pretty much all been dealt, and buyers can afford to wait it out with the remains until the deadline or into August.

[Danchat]

 

Someone should make a Falvine I Surrender shirt.....i surrendered in 2017, and 2018, and got a head start on surrendering in 2019 by trading Pressley....

Well, you'll have to get the presses ready for the other Surrender shirts for GMs. The Cardinals are above .500 and they're selling, I guess I'll make a Mike Girsch I Surrender t-shirt as well. 

 

I don't have any problems with surrendering at this point. This team (and last year's team) is clearly not ready to contend. Yeah, it sucks that they aren't and it's on the FO that this team wasn't competitive this season. We are 8 games below .500 and 9 games out; we are not a contender, and thus, trading away assets makes sense. I mean, unless you'd like Escobar to play baseball here in August and September for some reason, but my focus would be on winning the World Series, and Escobar being on a below .500 team in 2018 isn't pushing towards that goal. Acquiring 3 prospects for that much of Eddie at least gives us a chance to have players can that can contribute in seasons where we are competitive - yes, I know that doesn't push the needle much, but it's better than sitting on your hands and letting Escobar finish the 2018 season in Minnesota.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, you'll have to get the presses ready for the other Surrender shirts for GMs. The Cardinals are above .500 and they're selling, I guess I'll make a Mike Girsch I Surrender t-shirt as well.

Cardinals aren't really selling, at least not like the Twins. They traded away one reliever (with a below league average K rate) in one deal, and acquired a MLB reliever (and another MLB-ready one) in another trade. They also DFA'd two veteran relievers and promoted a couple top pitching prospects. Seems to be a reload/reorganization.

 

San Fran and Pittsburgh haven't sold yet either, and have been rumored to be buyers.

 

The Twins were pretty much the closest contenders to really sell, so far.

[mngopherguy]

 

Was .500 the required threshold? We were 13-8 and gained 2 games on Cleveland since Polanco came back (and that's not too cherry-picked, since we lost the first 3 games of that sample and fell 3 games further back, before making up 5).

If the front office required us to go 18-3 over that stretch to avoid selling... well, maybe we should have started selling sooner. (I guess many here will agree with that statement anyway but a lot us did want to see how the team responded once Polanco came back in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and the response from the team so far had been good. Erv too. Not perfect, but arguably enough to stave off selling.)

 

Yes. .500 is my first threshold.  The Twins have been under .500 for months, this is not anything new.  The non waiver trade deadline is in a few days, moves have to be made.  How anyone thinks we are contending 6-8 games under .500 is fooling themselves.   

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I have a hard time seeing a team as a contender if they can't win more games than they lose over 100 games.

 

And if you're not a contender....why act like one?

[Otto von Ballpark]

How anyone thinks we are contending 6-8 games under .500 is fooling themselves.

To be fair, we were only 5 games under when we traded Escobar. I think the further back we are, the easier it becomes, which is why it hurt a bit to do it at that exact point, after we had gained since Polanco's return.

 

I wonder what players Arizona and Houston were ready to move on to, because it would have been nice to take it up to the actual deadline, finishing the Boston challenge and getting one crack at Cleveland. Although if the FO was going to sell anyway, it may have hurt then even more.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess I have a hard time seeing a team as a contender if they can't win more games than they lose over 100 games.

 

It's tricky for Twins fans, because they do remember 2017, 2009, and 2003. All 3 of those years, the Twins made the postseason after failing win more than they lost through 100 games. So it seems a bit more complicated than that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And if you're not a contender....why act like one?

Also, there are degrees of acting like a contender. Personally, I wasn't advocating buying at this point, unless perhaps there was a real bargain to be had upgrading a weak spot like Morrison. Mostly just the lowest form of "acting like a contender": making some internal moves (Polanco and Ervin?) and keeping the roster together.

Edited July 30, 2018 by spycake

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Also, there are degrees of acting like a contender. Personally, I wasn't advocating buying at this point, unless perhaps there was a real bargain to be had upgrading a weak spot like Morrison. Mostly just the lowest form of "acting like a contender": making some internal moves (Polanco and Ervin?) and keeping the roster together.

 

I think moving on from some of the vets and giving some of our AAA guys a chance to succeed might actually be a bit of addition by subtraction personally. That means guys like Lynn and Santana are expendable in favor of Mejia, Gonsalves, Romero, etc. Same with the guys in the pen. The bats are a bit different story, as Rochester is rather lacking in that area.

 

I'll say what I said earlier, I'm not terribly in favor of moving on from controllable guys like Gibson (admittedly, the return on Pressley was pretty good), as I think they have a real chance of competing in 2019.  

[terrydactyls]

There is a possibility (maybe remote but still possible) that the 2019 starting pitchers are Berrios, Gibson, Gonsalves, Romero, and Thorpe. And if this lineup has any chance of becoming a reality, I would like to see it happen this year at the September expansion time. And add Curtiss, Jay, Anderson, and Bard to the bullpen to see if they will be part of the 2019 bullpen.

[Rosterman]

LOADS OF INTERESTING COMMENTS. Some Back --

 

You don't wait until the last minute to sell. Your players aren't the only ones out there. You do it when the opportunity arises.

 

It would be wonderful to trade assets like Lynn, Dozier, Morrison, Duke, Rodney. But there are other equal, if not better, players floating out there. A team has to WANT this player for their contending roster. Your next step in the August waiver wire where a team HAS to take the player if they claim them, which can offer you salary relief and the potential to play someone in future plans, if you choose to let the player walk. You might be able to get a very minor prospect back in a deal. Again, the end of July dedline allows you to play teams against each other, or MAYBE you have to pay some of the outstanding salary to lose the player.

 

Paul Molitor is a Hall of Fame person. That he can't take a couple of days to do festivities in Cooperstown, promoting the great game of baseball, should never be questioned. I'm sure arrangements are made, and the fact that the Twins are on a roadtrip close to the area also comes into play. This is an extended family thing. That he is still on the field for a team is a plus for the team, as well as baseball (although many of us MIGHT wish that he was not the field manager anymore). Should the Hall of fame have a better schedule for their induction ceremonies? Probably NOT on the final days of trading in July. Yes, maybe it should happen on the last day of the All-Star break, or the weekend before the All-Star game. whatever. But Hall of Famers is a unique club of a small amount of players and allowing them ALL to gather, if able, is a plus for baseball!

 

People seem to forget that the Twins could have a decent rotation in 2019. They have Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi. You forget that Pineda may be coming back for some innings in September. That three of these guys will be in walk years is the bigger question for the front office in the off-season. We also have Romero, Goncalves, Slegers, Mejia, Littell in the wings. And he potential exists that Ervin Santana could have his option picked uo for a modest $14 million.

 

And, finally, how much stock should you always put in minor league numbers? Would nick Gordon flounder if he came up? Would Bent Rooker be in a chase game of "who strikes out the most" with Sano if he would jump from AA ball, a jump that has happened repeatedly in the past in the Twins organization? Would a player be hungry enough to shine shine shine if given a chance in the majors for more than a game or a week? And, then, will the coaches work and the players be willing to work to become a better player at the major league level? You don't know until you give it a shot.