Article: With Machado Gone, Eduardo Escobar Becomes The Best Shortstop Available

[ahart10]

Trade EE. I fail to see the drawbacks of adding prospect depth by shipping out an expiring contract at peak value. The “losers” of the Machado deal need a fall back option.

The cupboard isn’t barren in the infield, Adrianza, Polanco, Gordon, and Sano will all be here going forward. It’s not like we can’t find a replacement in the offseason, possibly EE himself.

[Thrylos]

 

The Twins will only trade him if it nets a good return.  It will depend on what teams are willing to pay in prospect value to pry him loose.  I suspect it will take players in a teams top 10 to get him, but we will see.

 

I just have a hard time getting the logic that any return for Escobar (or Dozier, or Lynn, or Morrison,  or Rodney or Duke, etc) at this point is not better than nothing in return at all.

 

2018 is gone.  Nothing prohibits the Twins of signing Escobar as a free agent for 2019 (and beyond.)

[Dman]

 

I just have a hard time getting the logic that any return for Escobar (or Dozier, or Lynn, or Morrison,  or Rodney or Duke, etc) at this point is not better than nothing in return at all.

 

2018 is gone.  Nothing prohibits the Twins of signing Escobar as a free agent for 2019 (and beyond.)

 

If they can't find a return they like I don't see the sense in rolling over, they still have August to get something done.  I don't think they want to just trade him for a bag of chips.  Just my opinion.  Hopefully they get something good and get him back in the off-season.

[Jham]

I just don't see the logic of trading for "whatever we can get". If all we're gonna get is trash or 40 man cast-offs then it doesn't really matter whether we keep or trade. This is how we end up with tons of AAA and AAAA guys we can't get away from, don't know enough about, or have to be released.

 

I don't see how tanking or trading guys for suspect returns helps foster a winning culture, send a message about the importance of winning to young players, or give any reason to sign here as a FA or accept an extension.

 

I don't think having a reputation of caving helps future bargaining either.

 

Sometimes you try your best and it doesn't work out. High character means you don't quit absent a darn good reason. "Whatever we can get" isn't a good enough reason, imo. It's ok to demand a fair or even favorable offer. It's ok to play it out and let guys walk if the return isn't there.

[jimbo92107]

I'd trade Esco to a contender for his sake, not the Twins'. He has earned a shot at a ring, so let him go see what he can do at the top level of baseball. The team can get him back next year if both sides want it.

 

Meanwhile, this team needs to get game experience for Nick Gordon. They should shuffle him around the infield along with Polanco and Adrianza. Assuming Dozier is gone, I could see Adranza at 3b, Gordon SS and Polanco at 2B, swapping freely among them. 

[caninatl04]

In my mind, the only justification for NOT trading Escobar is if the Twins have already made the decision that they are willing to QO him.

 

I think it's arguable whether the team would/should feel that Escobar is worth a QO for 2019.  Dozier, Sano, Gordon...even Polanco and Adrianza...a lot of decisions and moving pieces.  It makes for great speculation.

I appreciate your opinions, but I disagree that EE is worth an $18 million QO.

[jkcarew]

 

I appreciate your opinions, but I disagree that EE is worth an $18 million QO.

That opinion isn't in my post .  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

 

You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

[ashbury]

I disagree that EE is worth an $18 million QO.

Concur. You don't give a QO because you want a draft pick. You give the offer because you want the player for a season at that price, and if he turns you down you get the draft pick as a consolation.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Agreed. The window of contention is open for the next 2-3 years. trading EE for some team's 10th ranked prospect in high A and 25th ranked prospect in AA does nothing for me. Trading him for a MLB ready starting quality Catcher gets me excited enough to require me to change underwear. The question is where in between we can wind up and if it ain't good, no trade. We need talent that can play in the Majors next year, not guys who might 3-5 years out. We got the latter guys, we don't got much of the former.  I'm tired of being a development franchise for other teams. 

 

If your option is to keep EE and then let him go in FA, or offer him 18MM next year.....or trade him for a guy further away than you want, I trade him for a guy further away than I want. I doubt the option is to get a guy that will help in a meaningful way next year.

[Mike Sixel]

I guess I see a 4th option - signing him to a 2-3 year deal at an AAV of less than the QO, probably significantly less. That's the option I would employ. My second choice would be the QO.

Sure, but you can trade him and likely do that. I am truly surprised anyone would pay him 18 million for one year, especially for a year that had a low shot at being a playoff year.

[twins_89]

I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick. 

 

I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.

[caninatl04]

That opinion isn't in my post .  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

 

You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

You re right, Sir and I apologize for any confusion, I was respectfully disagreeing the grey part. I wish EE all the. EST, but not $18 per

[caninatl04]

Agreed. The window of contention is open for the next 2-3 years. trading EE for some team's 10th ranked prospect in high A and 25th ranked prospect in AA does nothing for me. Trading him for a MLB ready starting quality Catcher gets me excited enough to require me to change underwear. The question is where in between we can wind up and if it ain't good, no trade. We need talent that can play in the Majors next year, not guys who might 3-5 years out. We got the latter guys, we don't got much of the former.  I'm tired of being a development franchise for other teams.

 

I disagree. I would take most team’s 10 th best prospect for EE.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd be very comfortable offering Esobar a qualifying offer. If he accepts the Twins get a valuable guy who can fill in at multiple positions on a one year contract (overpaying for one season doesn't hurt the team much if at all). If he declines Minnesota gets a compensatory draft pick.

 

I wouldn't consider any trade offers that have less value than the potential pick (a fangraphs article I saw valued a pick in the 30-40 range around 2.5 WAR pre-FA) plus the value of having Escobar for the rest of this season (extrapolates to around 0.9 WAR not counting playoffs). Based on fangraphs research, a value of 3.4 WAR should be worth a 50 grade hitter or a 55 grade pitcher (based on fangraphs prospect ratings). As an example, in a deal with the Brewers that would be Tristen Lutz or Corbin Burnes.

Escobar would have to sign a $50+ mil FA deal to get a comp pick in the 30-40 range. Otherwise it would be in 70-80 range, like the pick we sold to San Diego.

 

But of course, the far more likely outcome of a QO is you would get him on a 1/18 contract and no comp pick.

[twins_89]

 

Escobar would have to sign a $50+ mil FA deal to get a comp pick in the 30-40 range. Otherwise it would be in 70-80 range, like the pick we sold to San Diego.

But of course, the far more likely outcome of a QO is you would get him on a 1/18 contract and no comp pick.

 

You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick. 

 

I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick.

 

I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero.

 

If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered.

 

Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).

[Mike Sixel]

You are right about the comp pick, there's a decent chance it would end up as as comp B pick.

 

I think Escobar accepting the QO is the third most likely scenario if it's offered. Declining the offer or signing a multi-year deal with the Twins seem more likely to me.

Why would he turn it down? Take 18 million, then sign a two year deal after that. That's way more money than he'll get on a three year deal this year. Not even close, imo Edited July 21, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[TheLeviathan]

This QO talk really doesn't make sense guys. Especially for Escobar.

 

If you want to give him 18 million, you better do it over 2 or 3 years.

[Riverbrian]

 

Dozier's chances at a $50 mil deal are not great, but possible. Escobar's chance is virtually zero.

If Escobar turns down the QO, he instantly loses ~$4-5 mil from his bargaining position with other teams. His track record doesn't warrant a QO either -- keep in mind this is the first season of his career where he's been meaningfully above average with the bat. I think he takes it, if offered.

Absent the qualifying offer, he probably gets contract offers like 2/20 or 3/24, either of which would be preferable for the Twins compared to a 1/18 deal (which would not only be an overpay for 2019, but it would basically make him untradeable unless we ate a lot of cash).

 

I agree and I hope it is the Twins that offer that 2/20 or 3/24 and bring him back home. 

 

[jimmer]

 

I agree and I hope it is the Twins that offer that 2/20 or 3/24 and bring him back home. 

yeah, cause I don't see us as having a real replacement for him.

[jimmer]

 

Only if that prospect is MLB ready. IF that prospect is in A ball or just got to AA he won't be much help for at least 2-3 years or more. 

EE has given us so much value.  He seems to step up in crucial hitting situations more than most and he plays good/decent defense everywhere.  He's also not going to cost much when taking into salaries we see in today's game.  Letting him go would be a mistake.

Edited July 22, 2018 by jimmer

[Riverbrian]

EE has given us so much value. He seems to step up in crucial hitting situations more than most and he plays good defense everywhere. He's also not going to cost much when taking into salaries we see in today's game. Letting him go would be a mistake.

My desire to retain Escobar would be the same if he wasn’t having the year he is having. I wouldn’t offer him a QO but We better be a top bidder to bring him back. We need the position flexibility.

[jimmer]

 

My desire to retain Escobar would be the same if he wasn’t having the year he is having. I wouldn’t offer him a QO but We better be a top bidder to bring him back. We need the position flexibility.

In the last five seasons, he has only had one bad season.  He's made the most of his opportunities with us. He's not a superstar, of course, but his versatility and his ability to come up big as often as practically anyone else on this team makes him valuable for us. I hope we keep him.  

Edited July 22, 2018 by jimmer

[Riverbrian]

In the last five seasons, he has only had one bad season. He's made the most of his opportunities with us. He's not a superstar, of course, but his versatility and his ability to come up big as often as practically anyone else on this team makes him valuable for us. I hope we keep him.

And he has taken over for someone injured each of those years. I’m assuming that need will never change.

[jimmer]

 

And he has taken over for someone injured each of those years. I’m assuming that need will never change.

exactly.

[caninatl04]

That opinion isn't in my post .  Just stated the willingness on the part of the Twins to make that offer would be the only justification (IMO) for not trading him.  Or, another way of saying the same thing..."if you're not willing to offer the QO, you HAVE to trade him."  (Assuming the Twins consider themselves sellers by the deadline.)

 

You're not going to extend him at this point, months away from hitting the open market and having a career year.

Thank you for the clarification.