2017 Staff Compared to 2018

[mikelink45]

 

Pitchers and catchers report in 3 days. They’ll sign Chris Tillman to be the 4th starter and bring up Slegers when they need a 5th starter

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year.  Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?

[mikelink45]

One quote in this string is that rookie pitchers do not do well in their first year.  If that is the case, lets get that out of the way - play to win what we can this year and play for much more in 2019.  Get the young arms in and give them some opportunities to learn their final lessons.  Hope that Gibson remembers the lessons that gave him a decent last half of the year, hope Mejia is past his rookie jitters and improves, and see if Gonsalves and Romero have what it takes. 

​We do not have much room to maneuver now.  The FA pitching class is as poor as we suspected and the market shows it.  We either need a good trade for Archer or someone of that quality or we use our young arms until Santana returns and hope that 2 of the 3 - Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia - are ready.  And if not them - Enns, Sleger, Jorge.  Keep putting the arms out their until we find what we want.

[Teddy]

Listen, I'm not going to panic because the front office wouldn't over pay a pitcher to get him to come to what must be considered a non-premium destination. 

 

Instead, I'm going to look at track record, specifically of Derek Falvey. How was the Indians' rotation acquired?

 

Josh Tomlin, SP: Drafted 19th Rd ’06

Danny Salazar, SP/RP: International Free Agent (D.R.) July ’08

Carlos Carrasco, SP: July ’09 (PHI) — Acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies.

Corey Kluber, SP: July ’10 (SD) — Acquired in the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ludwick to the Padres and Jake Westbrook and Nick Greenwood to the Cardinals.

Trevor Bauer, SP: December ’12 (ARZ) — Acquired in the trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald to the Reds and Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson to the Diamondbacks.

Mike Clevinger, SP: August ’14 (LAA) — Acquired in the trade that sent Vinnie Pestano to the Angels.

 

Matter of fact, if you look at their roster last year, only one player was a big-time Free Agent, that being Edwin Encarnacion, who signed just a three-year deal.  In other words, the Indians' front office did not overpay for ANYBODY like we're clamoring for the Twins to do with Darvish.

 

So I'm going to be patient and watch what happens, and support the guys they put on the field.

[jorgenswest]

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year.  Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?

No. I also don’t think it is very wise to make future projections based on one injury filled shortened season. I sure hope that isn’t how the front office is projecting players.

 

His injury may have changed his skill. He may no longer be the pitcher he was the previous 4 years. If he is not, their commitment will be minimal at 1 year and they can move on. If he does find his preinjury form, they will have a useful asset that can help them.

[Twinfan & Dad]

First off for all of the Darvich fans, im sorry he didnt sign with the Twins. I speculate if he really wanted to sign here, HE WOULD HAVE. Falvey made the offer, the highest offer the Twins have ever made for a pitcher, we lost. Moving forward if you think that Falvey doesnt have a Plan B and a Plan C then again we are in disagreement. We know when healthy Santana is our 1 at this point. Berrios is our 2. Both of these pitchers could regress I guess and if so, we are in a world of hurt. If however Santana continues to pitch like he has with a WAR higher than Darvich and Berrios continues to move closer to being our ace then we are on our way. Gibson put some good starts together in the second half of last season. Is this the new version of what we will see moving forward, I hope so. If not then it time to move on from him because enough is enough. We have been teased for too long. These 3 will be in the rotation if healthy. This is where the confidence that I have in Falvey comes in. I think what he did in his first draft was nothing short of Brilliant. I know that only time will tell because a few of these draft picks have to hit the Majors for it to truely be a success but the way he navigated his selections was well thought out. He had a plan and he executed. IMO Falvey will get us another arm SOON. With Darvich off the board hopefully the rest of the free agents will come off the board quickly. Personally, I would prefer the trade route to find a quality, team controlled, young and affortable arm. We would have to move young assets to acquire but we dont have room for all of them anyways. Lewis is off limits though. Gonsalves and Romero will both get looks in Spring Training and my hope is that Gonsalves sticks. The guy can pitch. Teams have to give the ball to the young prospects at some point and see how they respond. Bottom line, if you know how to pitch and you have good stuff, repitition makes you better. I think he will stick this year. May will be back in May hopefully. Pitch count I imagine but with an improved bullpen if we could get him up to 75 pitches early maybe we can get 5 innings out of him. Again high hopes. As you might have noticed there is a lot of hope and if's in what I've said but isnt that true every preseason. Every player has question marks entering a new season. Can younger players make the jump up, will aging players regress and stay healthy, will players such as a Gibson be a contender or a pretender? I do know that I prefer to believe in this front office moving forward. I became a Twins Fan when I was 7 years old listening to the radio with my Dad and that was 50 years ago. I have been frustrated in the past as many of you feel now, but I am HOPEFUL that what we started last year with the young nucleus of studs continues and that Falvey fills in the holes. GO TWINS!

[Jham]

We either need a good trade for Archer or someone of that quality or we use our young arms until Santana returns and hope that 2 of the 3 - Romero, Gonsalves, Mejia - are ready. And if not them - Enns, Sleger, Jorge. Keep putting the arms out their until we find what we want.

It's not that rookie pitchers can't be good. It's that none of the guys you mention other than Romero are projected to be better than Kyle Gibson at their peaks. Romero should be conserved for innings and probably debut putt of the pen.

 

The only reason this stings is because the opportunity to sign a Darvish doesn't come along very often for a team with our self-imposed budget restraints.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Look at the opening series rotation. How is that fixable at this point? Cobb/Lynn do nothing significant to help, they aren’t signing Arrieta, and in any case they needed to add two starters better than Berrios to be serious postseason contenders.

 

“A competent SP” is way short of that, and I remind you even THAT hasn’t happened yet. I will not be happy with “a competent SP” even if it does happen. What’s the goal here? Keep the WC game closer?

Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high.

 

Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Tillman had a -2.2 WAR last year. Do you really think our rookie pitchers would be worse?

im not a big fan of Tillman, but he could be a fine lotto ticket on a team with a solid 1-4 rotation. The Twins don’t fit that profile do they?

 

The rookies won’t have a long enough leash to accumulate -2.2 WAR but yes, they will most certainly be on that pace in shorter stretches. None of them have near enough experience past high A nor have they gotten any of the short term call ups to the bigs.

 

Throwing them into the deep end will be painful. It can help develop for the future, but now is not the time for that as the hitting side of the game is ready now. Now is the time to acquire a veteran rotation

[notoriousgod71]

 

Listen, I'm not going to panic because the front office wouldn't over pay a pitcher to get him to come to what must be considered a non-premium destination. 

 

Instead, I'm going to look at track record, specifically of Derek Falvey. How was the Indians' rotation acquired?

 

Josh Tomlin, SP: Drafted 19th Rd ’06

Danny Salazar, SP/RP: International Free Agent (D.R.) July ’08

Carlos Carrasco, SP: July ’09 (PHI) — Acquired in the trade that sent Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies.

Corey Kluber, SP: July ’10 (SD) — Acquired in the three-team trade that sent Ryan Ludwick to the Padres and Jake Westbrook and Nick Greenwood to the Cardinals.

Trevor Bauer, SP: December ’12 (ARZ) — Acquired in the trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald to the Reds and Didi Gregorius, Tony Sipp and Lars Anderson to the Diamondbacks.

Mike Clevinger, SP: August ’14 (LAA) — Acquired in the trade that sent Vinnie Pestano to the Angels.

 

Matter of fact, if you look at their roster last year, only one player was a big-time Free Agent, that being Edwin Encarnacion, who signed just a three-year deal.  In other words, the Indians' front office did not overpay for ANYBODY like we're clamoring for the Twins to do with Darvish.

 

So I'm going to be patient and watch what happens, and support the guys they put on the field.

 

We don't have a Cliff Lee or Shin-Soo Choo to trade for any one.

 

Nor should we be rebuilding at this point.

[notoriousgod71]

 

 

First off for all of the Darvich fans, im sorry he didnt sign with the Twins. I speculate if he really wanted to sign here, HE WOULD HAVE. Falvey made the offer, the highest offer the Twins have ever made for a pitcher, we lost. Moving forward if you think that Falvey doesnt have a Plan B and a Plan C then again we are in disagreement.

 

The thing is Plan B and C are not as good as Plan A. Otherwise they would be Plan A.

[Mike Sixel]

Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high.

 

Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.

How about better than Slegers.... Or Mejia?

 

Everyone was nervous about the last years of yu's deal, but those same people are saying Santana will be good after surgery?

 

Nothing has been done in nearly two off seasons to fix the starting pitching while the core is here. I hope that changes soon, I don't expect it to

[Brock Beauchamp]

How about better than Slegers.... Or Mejia?

 

Everyone was nervous about the last years of yu's deal, but those same people are saying Santana will be good after surgery?

 

Nothing has been done in nearly two off seasons to fix the starting pitching while the core is here. I hope that changes soon, I don't expect it to

I’ll be very disappointed if we enter the season with the current rotation. I don’t like any of the available free agent options much but doing nothing is worse than paying a bit too much for mediocrity.

[Twinfan & Dad]

The thing is Plan B and C are not as good as Plan A. Otherwise they would be Plan A.

 

Sometimes Plan A ends up being a disaster while Plan B and C work out much better. Plan A is usually spot on when written on paper but results dont follow.

Again, time will tell.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Sometimes Plan A ends up being a disaster while Plan B and C work out much better. Plan A is usually spot on when written on paper but results dont follow.
Again, time will tell.

 

That's called luck.

[Twinfan & Dad]

That's called luck.

If that is your opinion then I HOPE WE AE REALLY LUCKY.

[USAFChief]

Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high.

Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.

They could have Darvish and Garrett Cole slotted 1-2 right now, had they chosen to make it happen, at reasonable cost.

 

I do not buy the argument that there wasn’t opportunity.

[USAFChief]

Sometimes Plan A ends up being a disaster while Plan B and C work out much better. Plan A is usually spot on when written on paper but results dont follow.

Again, time will tell.

If plan B is better than plan A very often, you need a new planner.

[notoriousgod71]

 

If that is your opinion then I HOPE WE AE REALLY LUCKY.

 

Yes I hope we sign Trevor Cahill and he luckily turns into Tom Seaver.

[bighat]

 

Everyone is forgetting Tyler Duffey.  Could he be the pleasant surprise we all have been waiting for?  

 

Good point, I did forget him. I don't think he'll be a "pleasant surprise" - but I can picture him going 4.2 innings and giving up 3 runs in a couple April starts. He'll have a good game in there somewhere, but I think we should keep our expectations realistic.  But you are right, he's certainly an option.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Yes I hope we sign Trevor Cahill and he luckily turns into Tom Seaver.

 

Sing along with me "The sun will come out tommorrow".

[Twinfan & Dad]

If plan B is better than plan A very often, you need a new planner.

Or your plan A is really a wolf in sheeps clothing.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If plan B is better than plan A very often, you need a new planner.

That’s not even a little bit true. We’re dealing with single data points with high rates of failure.

 

If plan A has a 68% chance of success and plan B has a 42% chance of success, it’s not a failure if plan B ends up working better than plan A. Obviously, you want the plan with the highest chance of success but nothing is guaranteed in this sport, just look at Johan Santana’s career with the Mets.

[rdehring]

 

Do people not get how dramatic a fall off it is from Darvish to whoever we throw out there? Duffy? Gonsalves? Gonsalves profiles almost identically to Mejia no? At least as a prospect? Arguably worse stuff? Romero is most likely a bull pen guy. May couldn't clearly beat out Pelfry. There is some hope there. But realistically no chance in hell any one or combination of those arms can replace the production of a Darvish. I'd actually bet on Hughes to have an impact over any of those other options and I'm not even sure he has any ribs left.

Not to mention we'll probably spend that money anyway. On worse components. And if we don't, we're certainly not banking it for next year or for any other signing or extension.

We need to get over it.  Darvish didn't want to come here for reasons we don't know.  Yes, the Cubs gave him more $$$ and more years.  Personally, I am glad the Twins didn't go that far out with big dollars to a good pitcher...but not a real ACE.  There were other reasons, perhaps including the lack of a Japanese community in Minneapolis.

 

Would Darvish be better than whomever we have as our #5.  Maybe...Probably.  But who knows, the decline we saw in the World Series may accelerate this year.  Or he may go on the DL next month and miss half the year.  Personally, I am glad we didn't restrict future contracts to our young kids by giving him a sixth of the maximum budget we can expect...for the next 6 years. 

 

As for performance by Duffey or anyone else, we'll know how they are doing in a couple months.  May be Duffey, hell, Jorge may earn the 5th starter slot.  Let's give all these young guys who were breaking in last year a chance to give'em hell this year.  I love this team and I will still love them if we don't sign another player.

[strumdatjaguar]

The original post forgot about Michael Pineda coming back in 2019.

[Vanimal46]

I don't see 2018's rotation being any better than 2017. In fact, I see a decline as it is right now.

 

We loved to rip on Santiago while he was here. He was projected to be a competent back end starter in February last year. They foolishly relied on Hughes in 2017, and they could be doing the same thing this year!

 

Now Mejia, with less than 140 MLB innings is slotted in at #3, Gibson #2. This is a failure in my book. Go out and sign a SP...

[jimmer]

Yeah, this rotation is bad.  Like it was in 2017.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

im not a big fan of Tillman, but he could be a fine lotto ticket on a team with a solid 1-4 rotation. The Twins don’t fit that profile do they?

 

The rookies won’t have a long enough leash to accumulate -2.2 WAR but yes, they will most certainly be on that pace in shorter stretches. None of them have near enough experience past high A nor have they gotten any of the short term call ups to the bigs.

 

Throwing them into the deep end will be painful. It can help develop for the future, but now is not the time for that as the hitting side of the game is ready now. Now is the time to acquire a veteran rotation

I'm not necessarily arguing against taking a shot on Tillman.

But, these signings aren't black and white.

In addition to the two options of him either bouncing back, or being terrible and easy to cut, there is also the grey area where he's bad enough to hurt you a little but, but not awful enough to give up on quickly.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sometimes Plan A ends up being a disaster while Plan B and C work out much better. Plan A is usually spot on when written on paper but results dont follow.

Again, time will tell.

By this logic, couldn't you just as easily and accurately say that sometimes Plan B is a disaster, and Plan A really works out better?

[ashbury]

If plan A has a 68% chance of success and plan B has a 42% chance of success

I always want to see 110% in regard to our FO.

 

But if anything, you understated it. Each "Plan" consists of known unknowns and unknown unknowns, and they fit together as a larger framework that is actually The Plan. What we think of as Plan B doesn't even come into focus until some events unfold, and this off-season has been a bit unique.

 

Further events look like they will unfold at a much more rapid pace now, and I'm still in Jury's-Still-Out mode to see what transpires. RB hit most of the points, in his post, that guide my thinking for now.

 

For Now.

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

That’s not even a little bit true. We’re dealing with single data points with high rates of failure.

 

If plan A has a 68% chance of success and plan B has a 42% chance of success, it’s not a failure if plan B ends up working better than plan A. Obviously, you want the plan with the highest chance of success but nothing is guaranteed in this sport, just look at Johan Santana’s career with the Mets.

That's true of any one individual decision.

Over the long run, Plan A should work out better than Plan B about 50% more often, using your hypothetical figures.

I don't want to speak for Chief but I think he used the word often intentionally.