2017 Twins......for real?

[DocBauer]

Okokok....we're only 9 games in. I get it. But remember where this team was 9 games in last season? It was the first chapter in a season long horror show that not even Wes Craven could dream up! Now there is a whole lot of season to be played. I get that. But the 2016 "nightmare" Twins were projected to win approximately 70 something games with Sano in the OF, Plouffe at 3B, "I don't give a damn" at SS, Suzuki at catcher, a questionable rotation, a pen that was NOT re-worked, etc, etc. And at times, it looked like Freddy Kruger and his knife-blade hands was pitching, or playing defense. And if not doing either of those two things, he was inflicting various pain and injury to the roster.

 

I maintain this is simply not the same team that began the '16 season, however, as some have vented. This OF is simply better, and Sano is "home" at 3B despite being a bit of a work in progress. The pen has been at least marginally tweaked. The swing and miss air conditioning attempts at the plate have been dialed down, and we've even seen some plate discipline thus far.

 

This team is still "haunted" by two obvious factors:

1] The starting rotation is still...err...questionable.

2] Youth...and all the highs and lows that come with it.

 

Defensively, the OF has shined, the catching has been excellent, and the INF, even with the huge left side question, has been solid to occassionally very good here and there.

 

Santana has looked excellent leading the rotation thus far. Hughes has already looked far, far better than I expected. I thought he'd be on rehab or EST. What if he keeps gaining even a little velocity while getting a better feel for his new change? Smoke and mirrors or not, Santiago finished 2016 solid and has looked pretty good thus far. Gibson and Mejia are both question marks. One shows flashes, but needs consistency and needs to attack more...(can he do it?)...and the other needs to settle down after one poor start. The pen, thus far, has been quality and seemingly used better.

 

The offense has produced surprising discipline at the plate, (yes some opposing pitchers have been wild, but come on, the wind power last season from SO totals could power a small city), we've seen situational ball played better, scored runs, and we don't even have everyone grooving yet, (especially Buxton).

 

But we're 6-3 as of this writing and playing solid, competitive ball. We still need to get a few guys going, at the plate and on the mound. We're still a bat short, and still have a super-utility guy looking more like Shoeshine Boy than Underdog. But this roster, I believe, is still in flux, and will remain somewhat so for a good portion of the season. But we're playing quality ball, winning, and just looking like a different ballclub.

 

I'm not expecting contention this season at all. But winning is, you know, better than losing.

[Linus]

Doc - I love ya but calm yourself.

[jorgenswest]

It is fun. They will probably have a few other 6-3 stretches this season. Gives hope when you start the season with one.

[Rosterman]

We have only faced team three in the division, someone who is playing on par, if not better, than us. Have to see what happens with the Indians and the rest of the month...then play against other teams.

 

By then, Molitor MAY have a pretty set lineup that doesn't have Dozier leading of, Grossman batting second, and a real place for Mauer, assuming anyone in the outfield DOES start to hit.

[akmanak]

I think it is entirely to early to gauge how this team will be. The start has been refreshing this year, but we still have these lingering problems:

 

1. Our back end of the rotation still is very questionable. We wont know where we stand until we go through it a couple more times.

 

2. We still havent seen what our lineup is going to do. Buxton, Rosario, Santana, and Mauer are all batting pretty crappy right now.

 

3. I still believe our closer is a question mark. He has not been lights out and has made the 9th inning a little stressfull at times.

 

Hopefully by the end of this month we still are well above .500 and it is so much more enjoyable to watch compared to last year.

[Blake]

 

Okokok....we're only 9 games in. I get it. But remember where this team was 9 games in last season? It was the first chapter in a season long horror show that not even Wes Craven could dream up! Now there is a whole lot of season to be played. I get that. But the 2016 "nightmare" Twins were projected to win approximately 70 something games with Sano in the OF, Plouffe at 3B, "I don't give a damn" at SS, Suzuki at catcher, a questionable rotation, a pen that was NOT re-worked, etc, etc. And at times, it looked like Freddy Kruger and his knife-blade hands was pitching, or playing defense. And if not doing either of those two things, he was inflicting various pain and injury to the roster.

I maintain this is simply not the same team that began the '16 season, however, as some have vented. This OF is simply better, and Sano is "home" at 3B despite being a bit of a work in progress. The pen has been at least marginally tweaked. The swing and miss air conditioning attempts at the plate have been dialed down, and we've even seen some plate discipline thus far.

This team is still "haunted" by two obvious factors:
1] The starting rotation is still...err...questionable.
2] Youth...and all the highs and lows that come with it.

Defensively, the OF has shined, the catching has been excellent, and the INF, even with the huge left side question, has been solid to occassionally very good here and there.

Santana has looked excellent leading the rotation thus far. Hughes has already looked far, far better than I expected. I thought he'd be on rehab or EST. What if he keeps gaining even a little velocity while getting a better feel for his new change? Smoke and mirrors or not, Santiago finished 2016 solid and has looked pretty good thus far. Gibson and Mejia are both question marks. One shows flashes, but needs consistency and needs to attack more...(can he do it?)...and the other needs to settle down after one poor start. The pen, thus far, has been quality and seemingly used better.

The offense has produced surprising discipline at the plate, (yes some opposing pitchers have been wild, but come on, the wind power last season from SO totals could power a small city), we've seen situational ball played better, scored runs, and we don't even have everyone grooving yet, (especially Buxton).

But we're 6-3 as of this writing and playing solid, competitive ball. We still need to get a few guys going, at the plate and on the mound. We're still a bat short, and still have a super-utility guy looking more like Shoeshine Boy than Underdog. But this roster, I believe, is still in flux, and will remain somewhat so for a good portion of the season. But we're playing quality ball, winning, and just looking like a different ballclub.

I'm not expecting contention this season at all. But winning is, you know, better than losing.

Practicing for a game thread?

[TheLeviathan]

Let's just appreciate that the first 10 games haven't been utter misery.

[Shaitan]

It's something all baseball fans have known since the beginning of time, but it's all about the starting pitching. The bullpen has holes, but if you get consistent 6-7 inning starts it won't be exposed.

[mikecgrimes]

The difference between 57 wins and 100 as a winning percentage isn't that huge.  Baseball can change on some really small things.  The bad news is the difference between 6 wins and zero wins also isn't much even if it can mean everything at the end of the season.  It takes a couple months to be able to bank enough wins to be able to survive a slump.  Still need Buxton to step up a little and a pitcher to emerge.  Maybe Santana is doing that but he's 34 years old and has never been an ace before so he'll probably regress.

[Mr. Brooks]

The difference between 57 wins and 100 as a winning percentage isn't that huge. Baseball can change on some really small things. The bad news is the difference between 6 wins and zero wins also isn't much even if it can mean everything at the end of the season. It takes a couple months to be able to bank enough wins to be able to survive a slump. Still need Buxton to step up a little and a pitcher to emerge. Maybe Santana is doing that but he's 34 years old and has never been an ace before so he'll probably regress.

57 wins is a .352 winning %.

100 wins is a .617 winning %.

 

That is a massive difference.

[Guest]

Sano, Polanco and Castro are better than what started 2016 at their positions (no names). The bullpen isn't great, but it's way better than the gascan that started 2016 (no names). The outfield defense is much better than 2016. Dozier started horribly in 2016. Even if everything else is a push, those four improvements over 2016 make a big difference.

 

Now, the season can be a success if these gains are maintained, Kepler and Buxton play decently, and Berrios solidifies a spot in the rotation. If all of those things happen, I'll consider anything else to be gravy.

 

A first bonus would be for all the hyped relievers in the minors to take a big step forward, but it's hard to hold much hope for player development this year when (1) none of them are pitching right now and (2) the same player development instructors are in place.

[mikecgrimes]

 

57 wins is a .352 winning %.
100 wins is a .617 winning %.

That is a massive difference.

 

It's about a win every 4th day, and that's the difference between a best season in 50+ years and worst

[theBOMisthebomb]

Enjoy the moment and a good start for a change instead of a train wreck on top of a car crash like 2016. The starting pitching will have to prove itself and it would be great if Buxton picked up the pace.

[nytwinsfan]

Folks, as of 8:27 Eastern Time, on April 14, Miguel Sano has the highest qualifying OPS in all of Baseball with 1.253. Can we all just take a moment to appreciate that?  http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/sortable.jsp#elem=%5Bobject+Object%5D&tab_level=child&click_text=Sortable+Player+hitting&game_type='R'&season=2017&season_type=ANY&league_code='MLB'&sectionType=sp&statType=hitting&page=1&ts=1492172739759&sortColumn=ops&sortOrder='desc'&extended=0

 

Also the highest wRC+  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d  (basically adjusts for park and league).

[Brock Beauchamp]

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic.

 

1. Sano looks like a legit 1.000 OPS guy right now. He's doing everything right.

 

2. Hughes has been a surprise. He's using the new change and it's far more effective than I anticipated. What I worry about most is how hitters will adjust once they get a pile of film exposing the new pitch.

 

3. Santana is rolling again.

 

4. Polanco looks great with the stick and adequate with the glove.

 

5. Thus far, it appears the Castro/Gimenez influence behind the plate has been invaluable.

 

But this team is still playing over its head. There's no way I can explain the bullpen. Parts of the rotation are still question marks. I still believe this team is going to need some significant turnover as the season progresses for them to stay near .500, much less in the postseason hunt.

[nytwinsfan]

 

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic.

 

1. Sano looks like a legit 1.000 OPS guy right now. He's doing everything right.

 

2. Hughes has been a surprise. He's using the new change and it's far more effective than I anticipated. What I worry about most is how hitters will adjust once they get a pile of film exposing the new pitch.

 

3. Santana is rolling again.

 

4. Polanco looks great with the stick and adequate with the glove.

 

5. Thus far, it appears the Castro/Gimenez influence behind the plate has been invaluable.

 

But this team is still playing over its head. There's no way I can explain the bullpen. Parts of the rotation are still question marks. I still believe this team is going to need some significant turnover as the season progresses for them to stay near .500, much less in the postseason hunt.

Agreed. Good summary. Berrios and Buxton stepping up and reaching a good part of their potential would be what it might take to make this team to be for real. Right now, that's not happening at the major league level.

[lukeduke1980]

Bring back the dance party?

[DocBauer]

Don't look now...(yes, actually do go look at the milb thread if you haven't already)...but young Mr. Berrios may be putting Gibson and Mejia on notice.

[bighat]

 

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic.

 

1. Sano looks like a legit 1.000 OPS guy right now. He's doing everything right.

 

2. Hughes has been a surprise. He's using the new change and it's far more effective than I anticipated. What I worry about most is how hitters will adjust once they get a pile of film exposing the new pitch.

 

3. Santana is rolling again.

 

4. Polanco looks great with the stick and adequate with the glove.

 

5. Thus far, it appears the Castro/Gimenez influence behind the plate has been invaluable.

 

But this team is still playing over its head. There's no way I can explain the bullpen. Parts of the rotation are still question marks. I still believe this team is going to need some significant turnover as the season progresses for them to stay near .500, much less in the postseason hunt.

 

Agree with this post to a tee, great summary indeed.  Sano is legit and is truly arriving this year.  

 

Huge question marks regarding the rotation.  Gibson.  For some reason, we've been drinking the kool-aid on this guy for years, believing him to be "solid".   Why?  We'd all love to see Berrios step up and shine, but alas he's got a case of the Buxtons and hasn't performed at the MLB level.  This rotation needs a major shakeup in the 2-5 spots for this team to think about contending. 

 

Still fun to be able to say the word "contending".  I'll take 6-3 right now and be quite happy with it. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, I'll be much more confident in the team long term if we can get Buxton fixed at the plate...  Liking what I see so far, so that's good, but I'd like to see how they fare against better competition.  I said before that this team could win 85. I still believe that.

[DaveW]

Don't look now...(yes, actually do go look at the milb thread if you haven't already)...but young Mr. Berrios may be putting Gibson and Mejia on notice.

I think Gibby needs to be the first to go, this guy has been pretty bad the last year+ plus he is already 30 years old I believe, so it's not like there is a whole lot of upside left.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Don't look now...(yes, actually do go look at the milb thread if you haven't already)...but young Mr. Berrios may be putting Gibson and Mejia on notice.

 

he's doing exactly what he did last year, and this should surprise no one. He's better than MiLB players. Right now, he's just wasting pitches in AAA. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think Gibby needs to be the first to go, this guy has been pretty bad the last year+ plus he is already 30 years old I believe, so it's not like there is a whole lot of upside left.

He's 29. But yes, not young.

 

I wouldn't pull the plug on Gibson quite yet. I'm just as wary of Hughes and Mejia as I am Gibson.

 

And Gibson has been solid in two starts with one awful inning in each outing.

 

That's the kind of thing that gives me pause. Maybe he's just that guy, I don't know... but I'm willing to give him a bit more leash before yanking him.

 

Not a lot, though. I'd consider pulling him after six starts if he continues the trend.

[DaveW]

He's 29. But yes, not young.

 

I wouldn't pull the plug on Gibson quite yet. I'm just as wary of Hughes and Mejia as I am Gibson.

 

And Gibson has been solid in two starts with one awful inning in each outing.

 

That's the kind of thing that gives me pause. Maybe he's just that guy, I don't know... but I'm willing to give him a bit more leash before yanking him.

 

Not a lot, though. I'd consider pulling him after six starts if he continues the trend.

being awful in 20% of your innings pitched is not a good thing at all. He doesn't limit damage, which is estential at the major league level.

 

Hughes for all his faults, never seems to just melt down on the mound like Gibson seemingly has his entire career.

 

In fact I'd wager that Gibson has lost more 3+ run leads then any starting pitcher the Twins have had the last decade.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

being awful in 20% of your innings pitched is not a good thing at all. He doesn't limit damage, which is estential at the major league level.

Hughes for all his faults, never seems to just melt down on the mound like Gibson seemingly has his entire career.

In fact I'd wager that Gibson has lost more 3+ run leads then any starting pitcher the Twins have had the last decade.

No, it's not a good thing, but it's the kind of thing that gives me pause when considering pulling a guy from a rotation.

 

It's two starts. If he doesn't melt down in one of those starts, he looks okay out there.

 

I'm not willing to pull a guy out of the rotation based on two innings.

[drjim]

There are certainly reasons to be optimistic.

 

1. Sano looks like a legit 1.000 OPS guy right now. He's doing everything right.

 

2. Hughes has been a surprise. He's using the new change and it's far more effective than I anticipated. What I worry about most is how hitters will adjust once they get a pile of film exposing the new pitch.

 

3. Santana is rolling again.

 

4. Polanco looks great with the stick and adequate with the glove.

 

5. Thus far, it appears the Castro/Gimenez influence behind the plate has been invaluable.

 

But this team is still playing over its head. There's no way I can explain the bullpen. Parts of the rotation are still question marks. I still believe this team is going to need some significant turnover as the season progresses for them to stay near .500, much less in the postseason hunt.

This is probably close to best scenario, but I think the bullpen is at least explainable.

 

Pressly, Rogers, Kintzler are representative in my mind. They'll give up runs eventually, but no reason they can't be pretty good this year. Duffey is a nice wildcard, used like has been he can bring some value. That's a nice core, and the rest can fill in around it.

 

Obviously the pen will give up more runs, but it can still be a strength going forward.

[FormerMinnasotan]

He's 29. But yes, not young.

 

I wouldn't pull the plug on Gibson quite yet. I'm just as wary of Hughes and Mejia as I am Gibson.

 

And Gibson has been solid in two starts with one awful inning in each outing.

 

That's the kind of thing that gives me pause. Maybe he's just that guy, I don't know... but I'm willing to give him a bit more leash before yanking him.

 

Not a lot, though. I'd consider pulling him after six starts if he continues the trend.

I am with him this year, but if he even gets back to being mediocre I want to see him gone before the 2018 season.

[Pardon My Dinger]

We've endured so much bloody losing...I think it's great to get excited about being 6-3. I won't take wins for granted anymore. Not after last year. Fun is fun. 

[ashbury]

Let's just appreciate that the first 10 games haven't been utter misery.

A thoroughly Minnesotan post. I recall hearing similar, midway through the 1987 League Championship Series. "Waal, at least dey didn't embarrass us, dontcha know."