Article: 2017 Twins Player Predictions: Eddie Rosario

[Seth Stohs]

Confidence is something that Eddie Rosario has never really lacked, especially on the baseball field. As Paul Molitor said earlier this spring after Rosario had a three-hit night for Puerto Rico in the WBC “we all know it, Rosie loves the big lights.” That goes back to his days in Elizabethton where he and Miguel Sano put on an incredible power display and Rosario was named Appy League MVP.

 

Rosario moved up the ranks quickly until his 50-game suspension before the 2014 season. However, he was called up early in 2015 and finished 6th in the American League Rookie of the Year voting and had double-digits in many offensive and defensive categories. However, early in 2016, Rosario was sent down to Rochester for a month, needing to reclaim his game. He came back and was better.

 

He was a star on the Puerto Rican WBC team, performing well both offensively and defensively. He hit for power, provided a game-winning RBI in the semi-finals game in extra innings, and showed off his rocket arm. Twins fans knew of Rosario, but the WBC made him a household name.Can the WBC performance push Rosario to a big season for the Twins in 2017? We shall see, but let’s at least put together some predictions and see how we look at the end of the season. Below you will find my predictions (or guesses, if you prefer) for Eddie Rosario’s 2017 season. Consider posting your thoughts and your predictions into the comments below. It’s always fun to take a look at the end of the season and see how our predictions look.

 

 

KEY NUMBERS

 

3.2, 3.4 - These are the walk rates for Rosario in his first two MLB seasons. That is remarkably low. His IsoD (Isolated Discipline) is just .024 over those two years. As interesting, or maybe more interesting, Rosario has swung at an incredible 46% of pitches that are outside of the strike zone according to Pitch F/X.

 

.738, .724 - Rosario has posted a .738 OPS against right-handers and a .724 OPS against left-handers. To this point, he has not shown a significant platoon split.

 

 

PREDICTIONS

 

Eddie Rosario: 516 at-bats, .274/.306/.452 (.749), 29 doubles, 6 triples, 17 home runs.

 

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Because of Rosario’s lack of platoon splits, he should be able to play most every day. However, they need to get other guys some playing time and I think that will happen primarily in left field (as opposed to center or right, and often if the centerfielder gets the day off, Rosario can take over there).

 

Because of his extreme aggressiveness and lack of strike zone knowledge, he is certainly more likely to have some extreme streaks in the season. But I do believe he will take a step forward in 2017. He is now 25 and has more playing time. Hopefully he learned from playing with the likes of Carlos Beltran, Angel Pagan and Yadier Molina in the WBC. I think he can show more power, particularly doubles power.

 

In 2016, Rosario showed his inconsistency and over-aggressiveness on offense and defense. While he has a strong arm, he was more erratic. Hopefully he’ll be able to maintain his energy while finding a way to relax a bit more and not try to do too much.

 

YOUR TURN

 

Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Eddie Rosario in 2017. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

 

 

PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS

 

Jason Castro

Joe Mauer

Brian Dozier

Miguel Sano

Jorge Polanco

Eddie Rosario

 

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[Mike Sixel]

why do the have to get other guys playing time? Help me out here.

 

I'd say your numbers are about correct.

[gunnarthor]

For some reason, I think Rosario is either going to be amazing or horrible.  No in between this year.  I'm hoping for a huge .300+ avg with pop great defense and solid baserunning but he could also do .260/.290/.450.  I just think it'll be one of the two.  So let's hope for something like .303/.333/.470

[Willihammer]

No idea if Rosario will be good or bad overall, but I suspect he'll be at his best against Team Cuba the White Sox.

[Seth Stohs]

 

why do the have to get other guys playing time? Help me out here.

 

I'd say your numbers are about correct.

 

Because it's a team game... And guys need days off for physical, mental or other reasons. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Because it's a team game... And guys need days off for physical, mental or other reasons. 

 

Don't most regulars play around 150-155 games? do other teams bench starters more than that, to keep guys on the bench fresh? I actually don't know, hence the question.

 

I assumed you meant he'd be benched a lot more than that.

[baumannmd]

I dig Rosario and hope that management allows him to just play his game. His aggressiveness at the plate makes for some ugly BB/SO numbers, but I'd love to see the coaching staff just get out of the way of our outfielders and let them do their thing. They're a young group. Experience will be a good teacher. They don't need to compete this year. They need to grow and figure out their own way to find success.

[Respy]

I like what Rosario could bring to this team, especially with the great outfield arm I didn't know he had before his call-up.  He's no Vlad Guerrero, so I hope he learns to hone his eye at the plate a bit as he matures.  I find it interesting that he had decent walk rates in the lower minors, yet also always had a reputation among his minors teammates of being a free swinger who could hit every good and bad pitch. As miserable as he could be to watch at the plate sometimes last year, I think he batted in 2016 somewhere near his floor, so I think he can only go up from here.  Just how far up is yet to be seen.  If he can improve to a .300 hitter, people won't care as much about the walks.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Respy

[Ryan Atkins]

 

Eddie Rosario: 516 at-bats, .274/.306/.452 (.749), 29 doubles, 6 triples, 17 home runs.

 

I think we would all be thrilled with that.

 

I also hope he improves on his 50% career success rate on attempted steals.

 

It would be great if at least one of Rosario/Buxton/Sano had a major breakout season.

[jimbo92107]

I'm a big Eddie fan, so I have to temper my enthusiasm. I think Seth has hit the exact middle of the range of Rosario's performance this season.

 

"Eddie Rosario: 516 at-bats, .274/.306/.452 (.749), 29 doubles, 6 triples, 17 home runs."

 

Of those numbers, I suspect Rosario can beat 6 triples easily. His gap power is excellent, and he can spray the ball into corners, getting difficult bounces. Eddie has shown that he has quick recognition of weakness when an outfielder is off balance, misjudging a ball or bobbling a ball, and his speed is sufficient for adding an extra base. I have seen him bluff slowing down to 2nd base several times, then turn on the jets to reach 3rd. 

 

29 doubles actually may be a tad high, partly because I expect Eddie to push for 3rd base whenever it seems possible, meaning fewer doubles and a few more times gunned down at 3rd. 

 

This brings me to the reason I love Eddie Rosario: He loves the game of baseball. Not just the attention and the money, but the contest to see who can find a way to win. Rosario looks for the little things, like an outfielder that lags just a bit when fielding, or a pitcher that isn't paying attention to the runner. He sees those things and looks to spring traps on people that aren't fully engaged. 

 

For this reason it's difficult to capture what Rosario represents with a string of statistics. He may "swing at everything" most of the time, but then, at some key point in a game...maybe he won't. Rosario's reputation as a free swinger is well known among pitchers, who may decide to dangle a high heater or an outside curve at a crucial moment, 3 and 2 with a couple runners on, tie game. Rosario knows this, and he's always looking to take advantage...

 

What will he do? Eddie Rosario knows the game well enough to operate at the level of an expert poker player. He masks his own intentions with an impassive poker face, while reading his opponents for any signs of their intentions. This is so cool, I can hardly tell you. I love Eddie Rosario. He's a real player. 

[Doomtints]

Projection systems don't look favorably on Rosario. 

 

I think he is currently underrated, but as to how much he is underrated I have no idea.

 

We seem to have him rated higher than the projection systems do. We usually overrate our players but Rosario isn't usually a benefactor of that.

 

My gut tells me that he is a 17 HR, .280 BA, .780 OPS guy, but this is near the upper edge of the spectrum of what the algorithms are spitting out.

Edited March 30, 2017 by Doomtints

[Bark's Lounge]

Like Jimbo, I am also big on Rosario. I have made predictions on other threads, I am not going to reference them for this thread.

 

.288BA • 22HRs • 21SB • .800OPS - this includes a trip to the All Star Game.

[mikelink45]

I think he continues with the same average and production that he has had in the past.  He is not going to have a big peak or a low point.  If the phrase - he is what he is - applies to anyone, it is Rosario.  No big peaks and valleys.  If you like what he has give good, if not, he is not goint to be anything else. 

[DocBauer]

I'm a big Eddie fan, so I have to temper my enthusiasm. I think Seth has hit the exact middle of the range of Rosario's performance this season.

 

"Eddie Rosario: 516 at-bats, .274/.306/.452 (.749), 29 doubles, 6 triples, 17 home runs."

 

Of those numbers, I suspect Rosario can beat 6 triples easily. His gap power is excellent, and he can spray the ball into corners, getting difficult bounces. Eddie has shown that he has quick recognition of weakness when an outfielder is off balance, misjudging a ball or bobbling a ball, and his speed is sufficient for adding an extra base. I have seen him bluff slowing down to 2nd base several times, then turn on the jets to reach 3rd. 

 

29 doubles actually may be a tad high, partly because I expect Eddie to push for 3rd base whenever it seems possible, meaning fewer doubles and a few more times gunned down at 3rd. 

 

This brings me to the reason I love Eddie Rosario: He loves the game of baseball. Not just the attention and the money, but the contest to see who can find a way to win. Rosario looks for the little things, like an outfielder that lags just a bit when fielding, or a pitcher that isn't paying attention to the runner. He sees those things and looks to spring traps on people that aren't fully engaged. 

 

For this reason it's difficult to capture what Rosario represents with a string of statistics. He may "swing at everything" most of the time, but then, at some key point in a game...maybe he won't. Rosario's reputation as a free swinger is well known among pitchers, who may decide to dangle a high heater or an outside curve at a crucial moment, 3 and 2 with a couple runners on, tie game. Rosario knows this, and he's always looking to take advantage...

 

What will he do? Eddie Rosario knows the game well enough to operate at the level of an expert poker player. He masks his own intentions with an impassive poker face, while reading his opponents for any signs of their intentions. This is so cool, I can hardly tell you. I love Eddie Rosario. He's a real player.

 

Absolutely love and agree with this! I believe his biggest problems are still lack of experience and trying too hard to be great. (Something I think he shares with a couple talented young Twins). I want to laugh when I read he should be traded or is dismissed as a 4th OF when so young an inexperienced. When you watch him, much like Buxton, you can see the talent, the instincts and the enthusiasm in his game. Just give him some time to learn, grow and mature.

 

I have said for some time that I believe he could be a consistent 20HR hitter when given time to settle in. I still believe that. Will it be this year? I'm not sure. I would argue the triples/doubles debate though. He has the speed and pop to hit double digit triples again, and maybe again, but triples are very hard to predict or expect based on placement within ballparks, OF ability and alignment and the such. But I think he is absolutely a .270-low .280 hitter with a .310-.315 OB hitter who should easily hit 30+ doubles...Unless he turns them in to triples.

[gil4]

 

I think he continues with the same average and production that he has had in the past.  He is not going to have a big peak or a low point.  If the phrase - he is what he is - applies to anyone, it is Rosario...

I haven't been as high on Rosario as some others, but at age 25 there is still reason to believe he can take a large step forward.  I wouldn't expect him to lead the league in OBP anytime soon, but he was had decent production even with amazingly bad plate discipline.  If he is able to improve that aspect from  horrendous to merely below average, he could be very good. 

[The Wise One]

 

Don't most regulars play around 150-155 games? do other teams bench starters more than that, to keep guys on the bench fresh? I actually don't know, hence the question.

 

I assumed you meant he'd be benched a lot more than that.

Is about 90 players or so league wide most players?

[specialiststeve]

Eddie has GREAT tools! He has the ability to be a very good  player but.....

 

Why in the world haven't the hitting coaches over the years worked with him to get the "hitch" out of  his swing? This directly is the reason that his  pitch recognition is bad and he strikes out way to much.

 

Some  will try to say it is a timing mechanism... hooy! Timing mechanisms are intended to at the end be in the correct hitting position. His hands are going backwards while the pitch is coming at him!  Watched over and  over again last year... drove me nuts! He makes the slight change to where his hands are back at the release of the pitch and I tell you he has a chance to be fairly special ... if not he is just another 4th outfielder type.

 

I had a hitch in HS and was blessed  to have a guy that had played minor league  ball help me get rid of it. As a coach later helped kids  get  rid  of  it and made the  world of difference. I think it would for him to.... c'mon Mr. Bill Smith you can do it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is about 90 players or so league wide most players?

 

Hence my question, thanks for the polite reply.

[AKTwins]

For some reason, I think Rosario is either going to be amazing or horrible.  No in between this year.  I'm hoping for a huge .300+ avg with pop great defense and solid baserunning but he could also do .260/.290/.450.  I just think it'll be one of the two.  So let's hope for something like .303/.333/.470

 

I completely agree it will be one extreme or the other. I also agree that he will be very streaky. I just hope during the down times he does not let his issues at the plate affect his defense. It always brought up he had more RBIs in the Appy league than Sano. I wish his walk rate was a little better. It would be nice to put his RHB between Dozier and Sano or Park and Sano.

 

I'm looking at .245/290/440. 25 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not really sold on 17 home runs but that's a minor quibble. Those numbers look about right to me.

[RichReese]

Rosario is lucky that, as well as he has been hitting, he hasn't been sent down.

[hybridbear]

I'm interested in his defense. It seemed to be worse last year than in 2015. I hope he can play great defense to help make the Twins OF trio one of the best in MLB. I remember the days of great defense with Torii & Jacque Jones.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Eddie isn't a guy that needs a sexy K/BB ratio to be a good player as his contact skills are exceptional.  A few ticks on each side of that equation will be more than enough to lead to much better numbers overall.  Problem is that I don't see if that Eddie will show up... Hope he does. We need it.  A Rosario, Buxton, Kepler OF would be pretty defensively, and if Eddie can improve at the plate, it would improve the other half of that equation too. 

[twinssporto]

I actually think this kid is great.  He's a guy when at the plate can really make things happen.  He's only 25 this year and has matured a lot.  This will be his big breakout year.  Trust me:

 

525 at-bats:  .290/.331/.481  28 doubles/6 triples/22 HR's

[bighat]

Don't forget all of those outfield assists.  This kid has one of the best arms in the majors and it'll be fun to watch him cut down runners all over the infield this season. 

[Dakota Diver]

Agree with twinssporto, Eddie can be great! If he can learn to layoff bad pitches and make the pitcher pitch to him his ceiling is very high. Most players hit way better with a 2-0 count instead of 0-2. If he can get some plate discipline he could hit .300 with 28-30 HR and 20 steals. Rosario, Buxton, Kepler should make an excellent defensive OF which will help are meager pitching staff.i