Article: Twins Request Final Offers For Dozier

[snepp]

 

Do any of guys think we could get the dodgers to give up kershaw? That would solve our pitching problem and presumably help them with their money situation. Their view of their prospects is that their window is in 3-4 years. Maybe instead of going the dozier route, maybe we take the bring kershaw to dozier route.

We have the pieces. I think Tyler Jay, Felix Jorge, Daniel Palka and a guy like JT chargois would be enough

 

While the prospect of Clayton Kershaw on the Twins makes me tingly in all manner of ways indescribable due to the forum's terms of service, no, I don't think we could get Kershaw for anything remotely reasonable.

[snepp]

And if I'm the Dodgers, I start the conversation with Buxton + Sano, or GTFO.

[AZTwin]

And if I'm the Dodgers, I start the conversation with Buxton + Sano, or GTFO.

Those are off limits. We want to win now if we acquire kershaw and those are the key pieces.

[ken]

Gambling on Dozier's streakiness worries me considerably. But I question whether position players are all that valuable any more mid-season. When's the last one significant move? Cespedes? And that wasn't necessarily a "haul".

 

I think off-season is the time to do this and I consider it a mini-disaster if we can't find a way to make that happen. We'll have lost a considerable asset's peak value.

Didn't the Tigers get this year's rookie of the year in the Cespedes? Waiting seemed to still get them a very good prospect.

[USAFChief]

Proudly! LOOOL.

Careful, you'll get labeled a "LOOOLGY" and there's no big money in that.

[tobi0040]

I think waiting is dangerous. Dozier had two years left and 1 plus 2 months at the deadline. Plus he has been streaky.

 

I think his value erodes from here. Even if he plays well the amount of time he gets falls.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Didn't the Tigers get this year's rookie of the year in the Cespedes? Waiting seemed to still get them a very good prospect.

 

They didn't wait, they decided to firesale.  And they got two pieces back.  My point was that it wasn't a "haul" by any stretch.

[chpettit19]

 

They didn't wait, they decided to firesale.  And they got two pieces back.  My point was that it wasn't a "haul" by any stretch.

 

I don't think the Twins or anyone here is asking for a "haul." But the Tigers got 2 good pitching prospects in return. That seems reasonable for Dozier and appears to be what the Twins are asking for. Fullmer was the rookie of the year and Cessa is holding his own in the bigs at the age of 24 and looks to have a little more in him. That's a 1 and 3 starter. If you think De Leon is a 1 you should be asking for one of their other top 10 prospects with him and that appears to be what's happening. A proven MLB all-star position player should never be traded in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I don't think the Twins or anyone here is asking for a "haul." But the Tigers got 2 good pitching prospects in return. That seems reasonable for Dozier and appears to be what the Twins are asking for. Fullmer was the rookie of the year and Cessa is holding his own in the bigs at the age of 24 and looks to have a little more in him. That's a 1 and 3 starter. If you think De Leon is a 1 you should be asking for one of their other top 10 prospects with him and that appears to be what's happening. A proven MLB all-star position player should never be traded in a 1 for 1 deal for a prospect.

 

Fullmer was an injury prone player who was the Mets 7th best prospect.  (He was 98th on the 100 list at midseason before being traded) Cessa was 16th, in the Mets system.  That's akin to us taking Buehler and Stewart.

 

I would say most people are looking for more of a haul than that.  

Edited December 31, 2016 by TheLeviathan

[Platoon]

Careful, you'll get labeled a "LOOOLGY" and there's no big money in that.

For the MLB minimum, approx $550,000 I will learn to throw LH til I can hit the mid 80's, and provide veteran leadership till the cows come home! And since I still have my Class A license, I could even drive the team bus on occasion.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You are completely not understanding. The best way to tell the Dodgers that you are going to walk away if they don't adjust the offer soon is to pick up the phone and tell them directly. You don't toss the story to your beat reporter and walk away. This is bad business and a n00b action. The likelihood of this working out in the Twins favor is near zero. If a deal gets done it will be in spite of this behavior, not because of it. And future GMs aren't going to want to do business with the Twins if they are going to cry to the media if a deal isn't going in their favor.

 

Note that baseball has very strong rules about leaking negotiations for players to the press. If the Dodgers are feeling particularly snarky they could file a grievance with the commissioner.

 

Whoever is negotiating this on behalf of the Twins has clearly never negotiated before. This move smacks of desperation and shows that they really want to move Dozier and the Dodgers are holding all the cards, in spite of them saying the opposite to their on staff beat reporter. 

 

I highly doubt that the Twins haven't told Friedman to put up or shut up.  Using the press is just as much for the fans as it is for the Dodgers.  It also makes it really hard for Falvey and company to come back and take JDL straight up for Dozier when they said they would not.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

You are completely not understanding. The best way to tell the Dodgers that you are going to walk away if they don't adjust the offer soon is to pick up the phone and tell them directly. You don't toss the story to your beat reporter and walk away. This is bad business and a n00b action. The likelihood of this working out in the Twins favor is near zero. If a deal gets done it will be in spite of this behavior, not because of it. And future GMs aren't going to want to do business with the Twins if they are going to cry to the media if a deal isn't going in their favor.

 

Note that baseball has very strong rules about leaking negotiations for players to the press. If the Dodgers are feeling particularly snarky they could file a grievance with the commissioner.

 

Whoever is negotiating this on behalf of the Twins has clearly never negotiated before. This move smacks of desperation and shows that they really want to move Dozier and the Dodgers are holding all the cards, in spite of them saying the opposite to their on staff beat reporter.

the Twins haven't operated like this i the past, but seems like normal hot stove stuff to me.

[mudcat14]

Been out of the loop for the past several days, so forgive me if I'm echoing other's expressed opinions.  But I have zero problem with the Twins holding on to Dozier, rather than accepting an inferior return over fear of his value depreciating.  While his economic value will indeed lessen with every game played, I fully expect his on-field production to enhance his worth to desperate, post-season seekers during the 2017 campaign.  

 

 

[darin617]

Sweet first 2017 post until it gets removed from topic. I just hope however this Dozier deal turns out or if we keep he is not what the new brain trust will be known for.  I am not a fan of the deadline talk for a deal to get done. 

[Linus]

I think most posters are vastly over rating Doziers value. Obviously we don't know what's being offered but I think keeping Dozier has very little upside for the Twins.

[terrydactyls]

haha. I work in inventory liquidity (supply and demand management) for a multinational manufacturing company. In this case we're trading contracts like securities instead of cash for goods like some of these market making discussions tend to be centered around.

But as I said, that's the real world, not the world of professional sports team ownership. A championship, not money, drives these egos. If I have to overpay, tough noogies. I'm going to do it if I think I can win it all.

[Mr. Brooks]

But as I said, that's the real world, not the world of professional sports team ownership. A championship, not money, drives these egos. If I have to overpay, tough noogies. I'm going to do it if I think I can win it all.

Dodgers ownership isn't the GM though.

 

There may be some GM's who could be meddled by ownership- ours for example.

But I doubt Andrew Friedman is one of them. I'm guessing he has enough clout that ownership isn't going to meddle in his trade negotiations.

[terrydactyls]

Dodgers ownership isn't the GM though.

There may be some GM's who could be meddled by ownership- ours for example.

But I doubt Andrew Friedman is one of them. I'm guessing he has enough clout that ownership isn't going to meddle in his trade negotiations.

Are you agreeing with me? I can't tell what you point is. Sorry

[ewen21]

I think most posters are vastly over rating Doziers value. Obviously we don't know what's being offered but I think keeping Dozier has very little upside for the Twins.

Agreed. If this were a major league forum with fans from around the country then there would be a whole lot more objectivity as to what his worth is. We are only an isolated minority. The harsh reality is teams know the Twins situation. They understand (as you sat) the Twins benefit very little by holding Dozier. The Twins and a lot Twins fans really need to get over it and move on. We become far too attached to "our guys". I hear the tag "face of the franchise" being thrown around. Seriously? A face of the franchise on a 103 loss team? Did we not see the second half of 2015 and the first half of last year? Dozier is so damn streaky. The second half of last year could be a mirage, but I see a lot of Twins fans thinking Dozier is Josh Donaldson 2.0. He isn't. I like him, but come on....where is he in the big picture? Anyone seriously thinking he needs a multi year deal after the 2018 is up? Unless we are totally of that--and there is no way to be sure--he should not be held. Which is why I think this "get your final offers on the table" power play is a joke. Reminds me of Bill Smith during the Johan negotiations. Any team could wait the Twins out and see what happens this year. We are not in a position of strength here, I'm sad to say.

 

As far as what the Sox got for Eaton, we really need to stop prentending that we could get that kind of haul. The market for second baseman is tiny. There are so many good ones now all of a sudden. For some odd reason these factors aren't being considered nearly enough.

 

And please....

 

Don't anyone go saying I want to get rid of Dozier for a bag of peanuts. The market has spoken for better or worse. Two highly prospects seems to be the going rate. After much consideration I take that

[ewen21]

But as I said, that's the real world, not the world of professional sports team ownership. A championship, not money, drives these egos. If I have to overpay, tough noogies. I'm going to do it if I think I can win it all.

So the Dodgers should just give the Twins more than market value?

[Mr. Brooks]

Are you agreeing with me? I can't tell what you point is. Sorry

Disagree.

You are saying that sports owners sometimes make emotional rather than rational decisions.

 

I'm saying in this case the Dodgers ownership has nothing to do with it. Andrew Friedman is in charge of the trade negotiations, and he is going to act rationally, not emotionally.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

But as I said, that's the real world, not the world of professional sports team ownership. A championship, not money, drives these egos. If I have to overpay, tough noogies. I'm going to do it if I think I can win it all.

kind of. As RB stated it, we're predicting markets. One has to assume rational decision making, we just need to put parameters around the rationale.

 

Money may not be the currency and the payout may not be a tidy nest egg directly. It's still a market, and we're still attempting to predict economy.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

So the Dodgers should just give the Twins more than market value?

no such thing. This market behaves independently. Every player is unique in value and once a player is drafted, there is no longer an exchange.

[drivlikejehu]

There is no objective analysis where in De Leon straight up for Dozier is even close to a fair return. Maybe 60% if you're being generous. It's so bad that the Twins really can't accept it even if they desperately want to deal Dozier.

[ewen21]

no such thing. This market behaves independently. Every player is unique in value and once a player is drafted, there is no longer an exchange.

You agree with me

[ewen21]

There is no objective analysis where in De Leon straight up for Dozier is even close to a fair return. Maybe 60% if you're being generous. It's so bad that the Twins really can't accept it even if they desperately want to deal Dozier.

Who ever said that? All I'm saying is that if what Dave is telling us is true the Twins are being silly

[jorgenswest]

The Dodgers don't need to offer the Twins an equivalent return. It just needs to be better than any other club is willing to offer. They don't need to outbid themselves. They know the Twins need pitching long term and Dozier is controlled for the short term.

[Doomtints]

 

There is no objective analysis where in De Leon straight up for Dozier is even close to a fair return. Maybe 60% if you're being generous. It's so bad that the Twins really can't accept it even if they desperately want to deal Dozier.

 

If you think Dozier is going to hit 40 home runs a year, sure. But what if he goes back to hitting 25?

 

Which player has more WAR ahead of them in their careers? Dozier or De Leon? What about the WAR for rest of their contracts?

Edited January 1, 2017 by Doomtints

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Which player has more WAR ahead of them in their careers? Dozier or De Leon? What about the WAR for rest of their contracts?

But that's not really how this works. Dozier is a known commodity while De Leon has risk.

 

Sure, it's likely De Leon ends up with a higher WAR over the next six years compared to Dozier's two years but it's also possible De Leon ends up with 0 WAR while it's highly unlikely Dozier posts no value over the next two seasons.

 

The two aren't equal because of that risk.

[drjim]

But that's not really how this works. Dozier is a known commodity while De Leon has risk.

 

Sure, it's likely De Leon ends up with a higher WAR over the next six years compared to Dozier's two years but it's also possible De Leon ends up with 0 WAR while it's highly unlikely Dozier posts no value over the next two seasons.

 

The two aren't equal because of that risk.

I would bet on the under of De Leon over 6 years vs Dozier next 2.

 

I like De Leon as a prospect and he's a worthy centerpiece in return, but there's so much more risk with pitchers. Has to mitigated to move Dozier