Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[diehardtwinsfan]

Untrue. The initial reports had a giant blank going back to the Twins. After a few days that blank was filled in. For the most part, journalists updated their reports and moved on. However, Ryan was asked about it in the interim and, yes, as the trade was originally submitted the Twins were getting nothing out of it other than the cash dump associated with getting rid of a veteran player that they no longer wanted.

 

Me thinks you were reading in the wrong places.... or just mis-remembering.

 

This was published on 8/1/2004.

 

This was published on 7/31/2004. 

 

And for fun, here is the game recap for that day. 

 

I think there is a lot of assuming going on, especially when it fits the "Twins FO is incompetent" idea that we love to take for granted here (don't get me wrong, they've earned that to an extent)... kind of like what's going on currently with what is or is not on the table with the BD trade.  Trades don't work that way. That data is faxed into the league office by the deadline. If there was nothing on it, it would have been a PTBNL or cash considerations.  The big gripe coming out of this trade was reports that came out a bit later indicating that the Twins were supposed to get a second prospect from (I believe) the Red Sox.

[dgwills]

Well, it was fun following this for the last few weeks =/. If the deal was JDL and Alverez then I'm mad that the Twin's  passed. If it was JDL and lesser prospects then I'm pissed that the Dodgers wasted everyone's time.  Dozier was top ten in the American league in WAR last year. Almost all of it being offensive WAR, so you really can't say it was not justified. Your just not going to get a guy like that for one pretty good pitching prospect. If it's two, then you have to blame the Twins for worrying to much about a 3rd piece that will have little chance of ever having an impact on the major league club.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Well, it was fun following this for the last few weeks =/. If the deal was JDL and Alverez then I'm mad that the Twin's  passed. If it was JDL and lesser prospects then I'm pissed that the Dodgers wasted everyone's time.  Dozier was top ten in the American league in WAR last year. Almost all of it being offensive WAR, so you really can't say it was not justified. Your just not going to get a guy like that for one pretty good pitching prospect. If it's two, then you have to blame the Twins for worrying to much about a 3rd piece that will have little chance of ever having an impact on the major league club.

If this thing is really dead, I'm sure the names will leak out eventually.  

[twins_89]

If De Leon was the only good prospect on the table I'm happy that the Twins passed. Taking 60 cents on the dollar in trade never made much sense to me. I'd rather see them roll the dice and see if Dozier can have an average or better first half of next season, if so I suspect the offers at the trade deadline have a reasonably good chance of being better than what is currently being offered.. I'm not going to fault the new Twins front office for not accepting a low-ball offer for their first big move.

[gunnarthor]

From mlbtraderumors chat transcript

 

Brian Dozier
3:33
What's the impasse?
Steve Adams
3:34
Dodgers don't seem to want to offer up any legitimate prospects beyond Jose De Leon. Twins want multiple well-regarded prospsects.

 

Prich
4:13
Who do you think 'blinks' in the Dozier talks: Dodgers or Twins?
Steve Adams
4:13
The Twins aren't trading Dozier for De Leon and junk or just for De Leon straight up. Dodgers will either up their offer or the Twins will hold onto him. Right now, the latter looks considerably more likely

 

Other than Dave, not a single reporter has suggested anything other than De Leon and very little or nothing else.

[drivlikejehu]

I don't believe De Leon + Alvarez was ever on the table. Maybe the Dodgers made them both available as the main piece, i.e., the Twins could get De Leon +, or Alvarez +. If the Dodgers were willing to give up both De Leon and Alvarez, the teams would have made it work. 

 

This thread in hindsight was much ado about nothing, because giving Dozier away is pointless. His chance of busting is much, much lower than the Dodgers' pitching prospects. Taking 60 cents on the dollar isn't very enticing when next winter they have a decent chance of getting 50 cents on the dollar (i.e., he will have half as much time under contract remaining). 

 

I get where the Dodgers are coming from, because quantity is important when it comes to pitching, and they already are one of the few best teams in baseball. I think the more surprising thing is that some other teams aren't interested (or seriously interested) that really should be. The Royals' window is closing hard - if they aren't going to jump into rebuilding, they need to get better, and that's by far the most logical way they could. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well, this is a bummer but I guess you take the cards dealt to you.

 

It's a risk to hold on to Dozier but if the Dodgers are offering 50-70% of his on-field value right now, the risk diminishes quite a bit.

 

It's a lot easier to duplicate 50-70% of Dozier's value in July.

 

And if he's heading toward the break with 20+ homers, then you might just get more for him.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I don't believe De Leon + Alvarez was ever on the table. Maybe the Dodgers made them both available as the main piece, i.e., the Twins could get De Leon +, or Alvarez +. If the Dodgers were willing to give up both De Leon and Alvarez, the teams would have made it work. 

 

This thread in hindsight was much ado about nothing, because giving Dozier away is pointless. His chance of busting is much, much lower than the Dodgers' pitching prospects. Taking 60 cents on the dollar isn't very enticing when next winter they have a decent chance of getting 50 cents on the dollar (i.e., he will have half as much time under contract remaining). 

 

I get where the Dodgers are coming from, because quantity is important when it comes to pitching, and they already are one of the few best teams in baseball. I think the more surprising thing is that some other teams aren't interested (or seriously interested) that really should be. The Royals' window is closing hard - if they aren't going to jump into rebuilding, they need to get better, and that's by far the most logical way they could. 

I know Dozier is inexpensive, but the Royals basically just gave away Dyson because they're out of money.  They don't have much left in the minors after the Cueto deal is my understanding.  I doubt the Royals would offer more than the JDL package.  I'm surprised more AL teams don't look at Dozier as a DH if they're set at 2B.  

[nicksaviking]

According to Rosenthal, Dodgers discounted Dozier compared to Twins a bit b/c last season was an outlier, he strikes out too much and hasn't had exposure to a large market.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/dodgers-brian-dozier-second-baseman-trade-twins-011017

I'm not sure if Friedman said those things or if that's just Rosenthal being a shill for them, publicly discounting Dozier to their benefit.. If Friedman did say that stuff I hope Falvey asked Friedman if he took a discount coming from Tampa. Being a small market and all.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

I'm not sure if Friedman said those things or if that's just Rosenthal being a shill for them publicly discounting Dozier to their benefit.. If Friedman did say that stuff I hope Falvey asked Friedman if he took a discount coming from Tampa. Being a small market and all.

"The Dodgers were willing to part with De Leon and more knowing that Dozier’s season was an outlier, that he has never played in a large market, that he strikes out above the league average."

 

Seems like that was Rosenthal's summary of much of the same things that we have all debated and considered the last few weeks.   

[drivlikejehu]

The Dodgers low-balled the Twins for a reasonable projection of Dozier. Their reported offer was a complete joke for the optimistic version of Dozier, 20 cents on the dollar. So pointing out his flaws is pretty meaningless in this context.

[Riverbrian]

The Twins settle for a lesser prospect package

 

Or... the Dodgers settle for a lesser 2B. 

 

The Dodgers will be the team settling and I'm perfectly happy with that. 

 

We WIN!!! 

[nicksaviking]

"The Dodgers were willing to part with De Leon and more knowing that Dozier’s season was an outlier, that he has never played in a large market, that he strikes out above the league average."

 

Seems like that was Rosenthal's summary of much of the same things that we have all debated and considered the last few weeks.

 

Well except for the small market bit. That part sounded more like Rosenthal pulling demerits out of his butt and pretending like they are commonly used criteria in trade discussions. Has a team or free agent EVER taken a discount because of market size? Rosenthal expects the Twins to set and accept that precedent? That was bad journalism.

[drjim]

I know Dozier is inexpensive, but the Royals basically just gave away Dyson because they're out of money. They don't have much left in the minors after the Cueto deal is my understanding. I doubt the Royals would offer more than the JDL package. I'm surprised more AL teams don't look at Dozier as a DH if they're set at 2B.

Or even as a 3b. There seems to he ways to make Dozier work on a team.

[Riverbrian]

 

Well except for the small market bit. That part sounded more like Rosenthal pulling demerits out of his butt and pretending like they are commonly used criteria in trade discussions. Has a team or free agent EVER taken a discount because of market size? Rosenthal expects the Twins to set and accept that precedent? That was bad journalism.

 

Yep

 

I used to like Rosenthal

 

He's not getting a Xmas Card from the Riverbrian's next Easter

[Riverbrian]

 

Or even as a 3b. There seems to he ways to make Dozier work on a team.

 

Yep

 

Any GM that can't think outside the box is going to remain in the box while the others enjoy the clear advantage of operating with room to spare. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"The Dodgers were willing to part with De Leon and more knowing that Dozier’s season was an outlier, that he has never played in a large market, that he strikes out above the league average."

 

Seems like that was Rosenthal's summary of much of the same things that we have all debated and considered the last few weeks.

 

eh? I have read just about all of the 626,832 posts in these 720 Dozier threads this past month, and I do not recall a Dozier-wilts-in-the-big-market angle ever being debated for more than a post or two, or even being mentioned at all, quite honestly. And anyone who has followed Dozier knows that he does not wilt in big moments. He hit a pinch-hit home run in the All Star Game, fer pete's sake

[TheLeviathan]

Why do we think Dozier would be a good third baseman?

[jimmer]

 

Why do we think Dozier would be a good third baseman?

Because of his weak arm?

[ashbury]

"The Dodgers were willing to part with De Leon and more knowing that Dozier’s season was an outlier, that he has never played in a large market, that he strikes out above the league average."

We know that the Dodgers made an offer of one sort or another, and it's very unlikely they would be floating this kind of narrative had they acquired him. Therefore, this sounds an awful lot like, "meh, the grapes were sour, anyway." A surprisingly bitter take, from professionals.

[diehardtwinsfan]

well if it's done, it's done... when can we lock the thread? 

 

I kid of course... sort of.  Not sure what to say if LA is out. Friedman likes his prospects I guess.  I always assumed they acquired the assets to also get more if needed. They will still be a favorite, but with a gaping hole at 2B that would be much better plugged by BD.  Oh well. 

[DodgerFan1234]

eh? I have read just about all of the 626,832 posts in these 720 Dozier threads this past month, and I do not recall a Dozier-wilts-in-the-big-market angle ever being debated for more than a post or two, or even being mentioned at all, quite honestly. And anyone who has followed Dozier knows that he does not wilt in big moments. He hit a pinch-hit home run in the All Star Game, fer pete's sake

Wait. I only read 626,831 posts. I missed one? Now I gotta go searching. Crap!

[LewFordLives]

Does anyone really believe the Rays are going to cut their former GM a good deal on Logan Forsythe?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Wait. I only read 626,831 posts. I missed one? Now I gotta go searching. Crap!

 

I'm sure the Dozier wilts in the big market angle was the one you missed. 

 

Goodness....  we absolutely discussed this to death and that's what was released?  No, "Dozier is just too streaky for my taste" comments at all?  You'd think these guys don't even surf the net.  I thought all execs did that. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Does anyone really believe the Rays are going to cut their former GM a good deal on Logan Forsythe?

 

Considering they probably consider themselves a fair bet at contention... I'm guessing no. 

 

LA can enjoy Chase Utely again at 2nd... or they can pay De Leon and change to the Tigers for the rights to lock up Kinsler long term.... except that change will probably be more than what they wanted to offer us.

[Riverbrian]

 

Because of his weak arm?

 

He can't throw it that far? 

[markos]

Dave's reports notwithstanding, I really do think that the Dodgers were lowballing the Twins with regard to Dozier, and offering nothing much other than De Leon. From the Dodgers perspective:
- Dozier is a luxury, not a need, for them. They are heavy favorites for the division without him.
- Dozier is arguably more helpful for playoff success, but the Dodgers don't need to acquire him now for the playoffs. They can wait until July.
- Dozier's value is unlikely to increase between now and July 31. Even if he demonstrates that his new performance level is for real, that is counterbalanced by having less service time remaining. So it is really unlikely that they would have to pay significantly more in July.
- They have a pretty good idea that they are the only bidder right now, and given the distribution of 2B talent, they probably expect that to continue throughout the season.
- The Dodgers are pretty stacked with prospects, so it is unlikely that they will be outbid in July if they don't want to be. For example, let's say that Daniel Murphy goes down with a season ending injury, and all of a sudden the Nationals want Dozier. It is highly unlikely at this point that the Nats would be able to outbid the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the prospect advantage over almost every other club right now, so they aren't in a position where they will miss out on Dozier if they don't act now.

 

But if the Twins actually did turn down De Leon and Alvarez, well that's just crazy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'll add that I don't know that the Dodgers "lowballed" the Twins, to the point where we should be offended or hostile. I think the Dodgers and Twins had discussions, and each side said what they were comfortable giving and receiving at this time, and there wasn't a match. There is nothing wrong with that.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I just want to thank the Dodger fans who ioined us in these pages and gave us the viewpoint from a Dodger fan's perspective. Also the background, to some extent, of the Dodger FO.

 

I have no ill will regarding the trade not happening.

 

I hope the Dodgers have a great year. And, of course, that Dozier rakes.

 

Peace

[USAFChief]

I'll add that I don't know that the Dodgers "lowballed" the Twins, to the point where we should be offended or hostile. I think the Dodgers and Twins had discussions, and each side said what they were comfortable giving and receiving at this time, and there wasn't a match. There is nothing wrong with that.

Well that's no fun. You can't sell a script in Hollywood without a villain.