Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jimmer]

As long as we remember the market value in baseball is set by the teams looking to buy, not the sellers (I mean, if a trade is to actually happen).  Just like a player's value is based on what teams are willing to spend on a player's talent (and if too high, maybe that player doesn't get signed)..

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Rosenthal has never been known to be a shill for anyone.

 

I'm then sure he brought up his small market concerns when reporting on trades or free agent moves involving CC Sabbathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Carlos Beltran, Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, David Price and Matt Holiday as well.

[Steve Lein]

 

What if the dodgers aren't low balling the twins, but the twins are trying to rip off the dodgers, or are asking for to much in return.

Ultimately we have no idea whats been offered beyond JDL.

 

Since we have no idea what's been offered beyond JDL, that tells me it's nothing worth talking about. 

[jimmer]

 

How hard is it to find players with "veteran presence"

Trying to wrap my head around the idea that a guy with 4 years service time is a veteran baseball player, myself :-)  

 

Dozier does fit under the role model category though.  He's definitely a player others should look up to in regards to perseverance and professionalism, along with being an all around good guy and good with the media.  He's the new Cuddyer.

[drjim]

 

As long as we remember the market value in baseball is set by the teams looking to buy, not the sellers (I mean, if a trade is to actually happen).  Just like a player's value is based on what teams are willing to spend on a player's talent (and if too high, maybe that player doesn't get signed)..

 

Sure, but number and quality of buyers is fluid. It appears that it was a cool market for 2b. That could easily change in the next 18 months.

[drivlikejehu]

In the Wild Card era, lots of teams go into the season looking to contend, with varying degrees of confidence and investment. Some teams will be surprised one way or another about how the season is going, all teams will have injuries . . . I ultimately expect he will be dealt before the trade deadline, but it will depend on the combination of events that play out in the months leading up to that.

[gunnarthor]

From the fangraphs chat last night

 

Dr Evil: While the Twins may not have a huge # of options for Dozier beyond the Dodgers, should they hold out for a significant 2nd piece beyond Deleon?
9:13
Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely. The Dodgers are bluffing. They’re not starting Kike Hernandez at second all year.

 

anonymous: Does Joe Panik + the tire fire that is the Giants top-of-farm prospects get them anywhere close to Dozier? LA and SF like to try to snipe each other on stuff like this
9:53
Paul Swydan: I don’t see why the Giants would want to trade Panik-plus for Dozier unless they’re convinced that Panik will not be healthy long-term.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Dave Cameron is pretty bullish about this trade:

Zonk

12:21 Is Jose Deleon a reasonable return for Brian Dozier? Are the Twins being too cute here?

 

Dave Cameron
12:21 Yeah, I think Minnesota is making a mistake. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/

[nicksaviking]

 

Dave Cameron is pretty bullish about this trade:

Zonk

12:21 Is Jose Deleon a reasonable return for Brian Dozier? Are the Twins being too cute here?

 

Dave Cameron
12:21 Yeah, I think Minnesota is making a mistake. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/

 

The link was to Cameron's article about De Leon from a couple weeks ago to be clear. Cameron is bullish on De Leon, it's not that he's low on Dozier.

 

But here is where his argument raised red flags with me:

 

"In swapping Dozier for De Leon (and whatever else they can get), the Twins would be turning a relatively safe asset into a risky one, but De Leon probably has more upside than one might think just based on his repertoire. Change-up guys who miss bats without a big breaking ball are often underrated as prospects,"

 

I'm going to need some examples before I take his word on it. And lots of them, not a couple of guys who may or may not fit that profile. And what does a "big" breaking ball mean? Does that mean no breaking ball? Or guys who don't use one much? Or guys who use one but get little break? Or guys who use one but it's not a very highly rated pitch?

 

Also, the word underrated is a bit vague in this case. Are they underrated because hardly any guys without a good breaking pitch are overrated? If that's the case it would make any pitcher without a breaking pitch but who even sniffs success underrated.

 

[goliath]

Retaining Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, hiring Toby Gardenhire, inability to trade Dozier when he is at peak value, pursuing a declining DH type in Jose Bautista, the big off season moves-a Rule 5 draft pick and signing suspect pitch to contact players like Vogelsong and Tepesch, instead of Falvine as a nickname, shouldn't Falvey and Levine be called Terry and Ryan.

[gunnarthor]

 

Retaining Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, hiring Toby Gardenhire, inability to trade Dozier when he is at peak value, pursuing a declining DH type in Jose Bautista, the big off season moves-a Rule 5 draft pick and signing suspect pitch to contact players like Vogelsong and Tepesch, instead of Falvine as a nickname, shouldn't Falvey and Levine be called Terry and Ryan.

Or it's probably more or a realization that the Twins offensive core is, more or less, set and that fixing the pitching staff isn't a quick fix.  They'll need some players to improve, they need to find fair trades, they need to improve the defense and the catcher and the bullpen.  

 

As for Molitor, I still think this is his last year and Levine hires a good manager when Molitor's contract runs out.  Molitor is still here because of ownership.

[Rhino and Compass]

You guys, as long as Dave still has his Twitter account, I'm not ready to give up on this trade

[nicksaviking]

 

Retaining Paul Molitor and Neil Allen, hiring Toby Gardenhire, inability to trade Dozier when he is at peak value, pursuing a declining DH type in Jose Bautista, the big off season moves-a Rule 5 draft pick and signing suspect pitch to contact players like Vogelsong and Tepesch, instead of Falvine as a nickname, shouldn't Falvey and Levine be called Terry and Ryan.

 

Keeping Molitor is the only thing on that list that I question, though from the owner's own mouth, that was out of the GM's hands even before he was hired.

 

Neil Allen appears to truly have a difference of opinion on pitching than the crew he worked with last year and Gardenhire is basically just an instructor. Falvey can't force other teams to trade for Dozier; hardly any contenders have a need at 2B. Bautista is a pipe dream at best and frankly hearing that the new guys are calling big name free agents should be welcomed, there's never harm in calling, there can be in NOT calling. Vogelsong and Tepesch are getting minor league deals, there's also no harm there either.

 

This is stuff all teams do.

[goliath]

 

Keeping Molitor is the only thing on that list that I question, though from the owner's own mouth, that was out of the GM's hands even before he was hired.

 

Neil Allen appears to truly have a difference of opinion on pitching than the crew he worked with last year and Gardenhire is basically just an instructor. Falvey can't force other teams to trade for Dozier; hardly any contenders have a need at 2B. Bautista is a pipe dream at best and frankly hearing that the new guys are calling big name free agents should be welcomed, there's never harm in calling, there can be in NOT calling. Vogelsong and Tepesh are getting minor league deals, there's also no harm there either.

 

This is stuff all teams do.

Thanks, my post was mainly in jest pointing out for all the hype of the new regime and the hope of sweeping changes not much has changed.  That's all.

[DaveW]

Alvarez and JDL were certainly on the table, the Twins wanted and remain to Want more.

 

If it was a JDL for Dozier swap the deal would have been rejected immediately (like months ago)

 

So much spin coming out from both camps.

 

The trade will happen.

[gunnarthor]

 

Alvarez and JDL were certainly on the table, the Twins wanted and remain to Want more.

If it was a JDL for Dozier swap the deal would have been rejected immediately (like months ago)

So much spin coming out from both camps.

The trade will happen.

I salute your dedication to this.

[Aaron Cross]

Monumental mistake turning down JDL and Alvarez. Franchise altering mistake. And now it would appear that offer is off the table. Very reminiscent of the Santana trade. Turning down excellent offers from the Yankees and redsox trying to get them in a bidding war, then both teams backing out and having to settle for the Mets offer.

[gunnarthor]

 

Monumental mistake turning down JDL and Alvarez. Franchise altering mistake.

Well pretty much every professional reporter who reported on the Dodger Twins discussions established that Alvarez was not being offered.  Outside of Dave, no one suggested it.  So it's unlikely they turned that down.

[laloesch]

 

Alvarez and JDL were certainly on the table, the Twins wanted and remain to Want more.

If it was a JDL for Dozier swap the deal would have been rejected immediately (like months ago)

So much spin coming out from both camps.

The trade will happen.

 

A matter of when. 

[Aaron Cross]

Well pretty much every professional reporter who reported on the Dodger Twins discussions established that Alvarez was not being offered.  Outside of Dave, no one suggested it.  So it's unlikely they turned that down.

I should have said "if they turned it down". But I think I'm going to give Dave the benefit of the doubt. He seems legit.

[nicksaviking]

I'd think if Alvarez was actually on the table the Dodgers would have leaked it by now knowing it would make the Twins look unreasonable not to take their offer.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know if Alvarez is on the table or not.  But I'm confident there wouldn't be this much smoke, for this many weeks, if this was only DeLeon.

 

I think most of this "all other credible reporters have said..." stuff is giving too much credit.  Most sports reporting is hearing something, recycling it in their own feed, and calling it confirmation.  We have Lavelle giving some sloppy run down and it has been repeated too often.

 

I don't think Alvarez + DeLeon passes the smell test either, but the fact that we've had over a month of rumors about this tells me the idea that only DeLeon is on the table is total bunk.  I'd sooner believe they've offered us Bellinger, Alvarez, and Urias than that he's the only one on the table.  

 

Something else is going on.  It may be that we're being too greedy or they're being too stingy, but DeLeon only is nonsense from the smell test.

[gunnarthor]

Well, my guess is that both sides agreed that De Leon was in the trade but both had a list of players that could go with him and the names didn't match.  Both sides figured the other side would budge.  That seems like the simplest answer.

[TooSmartForEweNow]

Not sure I buy DeLeon AND Alvarez being offered.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Well, my guess is that both sides agreed that De Leon was in the trade but both had a list of players that could go with him and the names didn't match.  Both sides figured the other side would budge.  That seems like the simplest answer.

 

Yes, but that means pretty much every credible media person is talking out of their rear end on this.  

[gunnarthor]

 

Yes, but that means pretty much every credible media person is talking out of their rear end on this.  

Isn't that close to what mlbtraderumors was saying?  I swear I read that somewhere (the list exchange of names).

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Isn't that close to what mlbtraderumors was saying?  I swear I read that somewhere (the list exchange of names).

Probably just more conjecture on someone's part.

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Isn't that close to what mlbtraderumors was saying?  I swear I read that somewhere (the list exchange of names).

 

MLBTR I thought took it straight from LEN.

 

Once LEN phrased it confusingly it seems to have spread like wildfire.  And I just don't buy it.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Alvarez and JDL were certainly on the table, the Twins wanted and remain to Want more.

If it was a JDL for Dozier swap the deal would have been rejected immediately (like months ago)

So much spin coming out from both camps.

The trade will happen.

I certainly hope the trade works out. 

From what I've been reading here, the opinion of JDL range from a 2-3 to 3-4 type pitcher with a changeup as his best pitch.  I just can't believe that JDL was the ONLY thing offered.  I like the addition of Alvarez, but let's face facts.  For all the talk about his upside, Alvarez ended the year in A-ball.  I mean, that's still a long ways away.

 

Based on this, I'd say JDL and Alvarez is just not enough.

 

[DodgerFan1234]

 

Alvarez and JDL were certainly on the table, the Twins wanted and remain to Want more.

If it was a JDL for Dozier swap the deal would have been rejected immediately (like months ago)

So much spin coming out from both camps.

The trade will happen.

 

I honestly applaud your dedication to this at this point.  Call me a skeptic.  Mostly because I am a David and I have a natural distrust of anybody that chooses to go by Dave   .