Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[nicksaviking]

 

Who is going to make a better offer than De Leon + whatever?

 

We're not sure yet, which I guess is why we wait.

 

I like De Leon but I don't have nearly enough confidence in him to not get additional decent prospects.

 

There's also some future value in not getting pantsed by the Dodgers in front of the whole class the first day of school.

[Mike Sixel]

 

We're not sure yet, which I guess is why we wait.

 

I like De Leon but I don't have nearly enough confidence in him to not get additional decent prospects.

 

top 10-20 prospect in the game (if I am reading the posts people are making here correctly), at SP.....good luck with that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

top 10-20 prospect in the game (if I am reading the posts people are making here correctly), at SP.....good luck with that.

 

I could be wrong here, but weren't you one of the ones being upset about Span for Meyer b/c it was a one for one swap?  It's really the same issue here.  De Leon + junk is well... junk.  Too much risk.  I'd keep Dozier in that situation too.  I understand that we have a need for more SP, but trading our best asset for one potentially decent SP and a couple of C prospects is the wrong way to do it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I could be wrong here, but weren't you one of the ones being upset about Span for Meyer b/c it was a one for one swap?  It's really the same issue here.  De Leon + junk is well... junk.  Too much risk.  I'd keep Dozier in that situation too.  I understand that we have a need for more SP, but trading our best asset for one potentially decent SP and a couple of C prospects is the wrong way to do it.

 

My main beef with Span for Meyer was that Meyer was 6 foot 9, and you can count on 1 finger the guys that tall that have been good. But yes, I was opposed to a 1:1 deal. I don't like a 1:1 deal here either, but I'm wondering if that's better than nothing. Also, people learn over time, and my thoughts are evolving. Heck, they are evolving over the last month, as I think thru the ramifications of not trading Dozier. 

 

It's really about trust, do you trust the FO to ID a legit SP in this deal. And odds. 

 

I think I liked the Span deal, but admitted I knew nothing of Meyer, and that we could only judge if the GM was right after the fact. I'm not in love with saying that....but I think that's what I said. OTOH, I think a GM should be held to a higher standard in this realm than a random guy posting on the internet, so outcomes should matter, especially if there is a pattern.

[nicksaviking]

top 10-20 prospect in the game (if I am reading the posts people are making here correctly), at SP.....good luck with that.

I get it and that's tempting when you look at it in terms of prospect rankings. But I'm inclined to look at this as a 24-year-old right handed rookie with a 92-93 mph fastball and a very questionable breaking pitch. That seems like a much more risky proposition than most top 30 arms, he doesn't have much margin of error. At least in terms of finding an ace.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

My main beef with Span for Meyer was that Meyer was 6 foot 9, and you can count on 1 finger the guys that tall that have been good. But yes, I was opposed to a 1:1 deal. I don't like a 1:1 deal here either, but I'm wondering if that's better than nothing. Also, people learn over time, and my thoughts are evolving. Heck, they are evolving over the last month, as I think thru the ramifications of not trading Dozier. 

 

It's really about trust, do you trust the FO to ID a legit SP in this deal. And odds. 

 

I think I liked the Span deal, but admitted I knew nothing of Meyer, and that we could only judge if the GM was right after the fact. I'm not in love with saying that....but I think that's what I said. OTOH, I think a GM should be held to a higher standard in this realm than a random guy posting on the internet, so outcomes should matter, especially if there is a pattern.

 

It's not as simple as trust. They could do all the right things and have all the right people on it, and JDL could bust.  That's how pitching prospects in particular work.

 

Then you have the other side of it.  If they pull a Bill Smith trade, they are only going to get Bill Smith offers.  You've got to say no to a bad deal.  That is also a big part in making good, long term moves.

[jimmer]

What's worse?  Taking a chance prospect many experts rate as a very high prospect to help a horrible rotation, or Dozier leaving for nothing in two years?

[drjim]

 

What's worse?  Taking a chance prospect many experts rate as a very high prospect to help a horrible rotation, or Dozier leaving for nothing in two years?

 

There are more potential outcomes than listed here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's not as simple as trust. They could do all the right things and have all the right people on it, and JDL could bust.  That's how pitching prospects in particular work.

 

Then you have the other side of it.  If they pull a Bill Smith trade, they are only going to get Bill Smith offers.  You've got to say no to a bad deal.  That is also a big part in making good, long term moves.

 

You also have the side of not trading, and the SP staff not having enough guys that are good over the next 5 years. And Dozier walking, and getting nothing but a 2nd or 3rd round comp pick (however that works now). 

[jimmer]

 

There are more potential outcomes than listed here.

He loses value if being traded at deadline or next offseason.  His highest value is right now, with two years left, at a great price, after a great season.  

 

I highly doubt the Twins re-sign him, but it could happen.  Shouldn't happen, but could.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There are more potential outcomes than listed here.

 

as diehard and others point out.....odds, what are the odds they are offered more than JDL going forward?

[jimmer]

 

You also have the side of not trading, and the SP staff not having enough guys that are good over the next 5 years. And Dozier walking, and getting nothing but a 2nd or 3rd round comp pick (however that works now).

assuming we even offer a likely 18.5M QO  when he becomes a FA

[nicksaviking]

What's worse?  Taking a chance prospect many experts rate as a very high prospect to help a horrible rotation, or Dozier leaving for nothing in two years?

What are the odds De Leon ends up a #1 or #2? Maybe 10%?

 

The Twins odds of getting the same or better deal later is likely still higher than that.

[jimmer]

 

What are the odds De Leon ends up a #1 or #2? Maybe 10%?

The Twins odds of getting the same or better deal later is likely still higher than that.

That's the odds of every pitcher.  There are no guarantees, ever.

 

I doubt the bold is true.

[drjim]

 

He loses value if being traded at deadline or next offseason.  His highest value is right now, with two years left, at a great price, after a great season.  

 

I highly doubt the Twins re-sign him, but it could happen.  Shouldn't happen, but could.

 

He could lose value but his market could also expand significantly. Lots of outcomes.

 

If Dozier performs similarly to last year I think a De Leon type will be on the table again.

[jimmer]

 

He could lose value but his market could also expand significantly. Lots of outcomes.

 

If Dozier performs similarly to last year I think a De Leon type will be on the table again.

I have so little belief that any of that could possible happen, I don't even consider it.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He could lose value but his market could also expand significantly. Lots of outcomes.

 

If Dozier performs similarly to last year I think a De Leon type will be on the table again.

 

Well, De Leon and at least 1 more legit prospect and one more prospect, other wise it's not worth doing....

 

And who has excess JDL types to deal, and needs a 2B?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I get it and that's tempting when you look at it in terms of prospect rankings. But I'm inclined to look at this as a 24-year-old right handed rookie with a 92-93 mph fastball and a very questionable breaking pitch. That seems like a much more risky proposition than most top 30 arms, he doesn't have much margin of error.

Aren't those the kind of things already factored into a subjective prospect ranking?

[ashbury]

The fishwrap in Boston has an exploration of the difficulty free-agent sluggers are having in finding new contracts. It focuses on low-OBP/defense-challenged guys, which in 2016 wasn't Dozier's issue, so the point of looking at it is just the insight that home-run power currently is not as highly esteemed by front offices as we would hope, where it comes to getting value in return for our guy.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Well, De Leon and at least 1 more legit prospect and one more prospect, other wise it's not worth doing....
 
And who has excess JDL types to deal, and needs a 2B?

 
Based on the DodgerBlue reports, there weren't any other legit prospects in the deal.  No Alvarez (sorry Dave).  No Stewart.  No Bellinger.  No Verdugo.  That equates to a whole lot of risk given the potential reward.  To be honest, your reasoning here is why I feel it necessary to caveat my desire to trade Dozier with the "you don't trade him unless a good deal comes along."  Dozier for De Leon and spare change is not a good deal.  I don't care what his prospect ranking is. He's hardly a sure thing, and plenty of highly ranked prospects bust (see Young, Delmon, who I might add Friedman traded to us).  Just look at every other trade that has happened this year. Far more than a single De Leon type player changed hands.
 
I get there's risk on this end, and I get that we need pitching. The Dodgers know full well they are probably the only team negotiating and so they are bluffing. The Twins should (rightfully) call that bluff. LAD won't get Forsyth for De Leon plus change. They might get Kinsler, though there's this small problem of a no trade clause forcing them to extend him, the fact that he's much more expensive now, and the fact that he's a far greater risk to drop off or get hurt than Dozier in which case they are taking on far more risk.  If they were that concerned about Dozier's risk, they would be going after Kinsler.
 
The deal as the media is presenting it is absolute garbage.  I don't believe Alvarez is on the table for the simple reason that no one else close to the negotiations is reporting it, and LAD has every reason to leak that to someone other than Dave to paint the Twins as unreasonable. 

[drjim]

 

I have so little belief that any of that could possible happen, I don't even consider it.

 You don't think another team could need a 2b some time in the next 2 years?

[Otto von Ballpark]

You don't think another team could need a 2b some time in the next 2 years?

With a MLB ready top 20 SP prospect available, perhaps not.

[nicksaviking]

That's the odds of every pitcher.  There are no guarantees, ever.

 

I doubt the bold is true.

The odds that the Twins get offered a better deal later are less than 10%?

 

It's unlikely, but not that unlikely.

[drjim]

 

With a MLB ready top 20 SP prospect available, perhaps not.

 That I agree with, but I don't think the Twins would have to limit the return to only a mlb ready pitcher.

[nicksaviking]

Aren't those the kind of things already factored into a subjective prospect ranking?

Yes but so are things like floor vs ceiling. The Twins need an ace, they need high ceiling guys. Seems to me De Leon is valued more on his high floor.

 

Not all top 20 prospects are the same.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 That I agree with, but I don't think the Twins would have to limit the return to only a mlb ready pitcher.

 

I would hope, if we deal Dozier, we are targeting pitching.  And the closer to the bigs the better.  

 

I really think you're looking past some pretty simple probabilities to conclude waiting is anything other than a gigantic risk.

[dbminn]

If I was a Dodger fan, I would be pretty upset if they passed on Dozier. Right now, FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to be roughly even with the Cubs. That's with an estimated 0.5 WAR from the best of their available 2B. Their budget this year is well north of $200 million. They're committed. The Dodgers have a deep farm system. They can risk two real prospects for a relatively cheap Dozier.

 

What are the Dodger options?

• Kinsler, who's 34 years old and has a no-trade clause. He has said he'll waive the clause only if he gets a contract extension.
• Forsythe, who'd cost less but would bring less performance (6.8 WAR, past two years).
• Jace Peterson of the Braves has been mentioned too. He's amassed 1.0 WAR over the past two years and 1,000 PA.

I think Friedman will call back as spring training nears.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

That I agree with, but I don't think the Twins would have to limit the return to only a mlb ready pitcher.

Any top 20 SP prospect then. Teams are usually pretty stingy with those guys. Or if they are dealt, it is for a guy with wider demand like an ace.

[Otto von Ballpark]

If I was a Dodger fan, I would be pretty upset if they passed on Dozier. Right now, FanGraphs projects the Dodgers to be roughly even with the Cubs. That's with an estimated 0.5 WAR from the best of their available 2B. Their budget this year is well north of $200 million. They're committed. The Dodgers have a deep farm system. They can risk two real prospects for a relatively cheap Dozier.

 

What are the Dodger options?

• Kinsler, who's 34 years old and has a no-trade clause. He has said he'll waive the clause only if he gets a contract extension.
• Forsythe, who'd cost less but would bring less performance (6.8 WAR, past two years).
• Jace Peterson of the Braves has been mentioned too. He's amassed 1.0 WAR over the past two years and 1,000 PA.

I think Friedman will call back as spring training nears.

The Dodgers don't get a prize for besting the Cubs in projected Fangraphs WAR.

 

By B-Ref WAR, Forsythe actually has 8.4 WAR the past 2 years, at a higher per PA rate than Dozier over the same period. Tampa loves shedding payroll and might have a rotation opening with Smyly traded...

[Riverbrian]

I keep reading that Dozier's value will never be higher. 

 

This is obviously not true if you consider that the Dodgers were seemingly the only team bidding and seemingly low balling.