Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TheLeviathan]

 

The chances of Dozier busting are much, much lower than De Leon, who has a much higher chance of getting hurt, plus a much higher chance of just not being very good. 

 

You don't assess value by saying, well, anyone could bust, so let's not worry about it. Future value is determined based on a probability distribution. If fictional player A has a 90% chance of 3 WAR and 10% chance of 0 WAR, and fictional player B has a 45% chance of 3 WAR and a 55% chance of 0 WAR, then all else being equal, player A is twice as valuable as player B.

 

De Leon's chances of being a successful starting pitcher are way, way below 50%, even if his prospect status is fully justified. That's the problem with being so short on pitching - De Leon is, from a probability standpoint, basically 1/4th of a starting pitcher, maybe 1/3rd if you want to be unreasonably optimistic.

 

Trading Dozier for 1/3rd of a starting pitcher just does nothing for me. 

 

Brian Dozier has already been that pumpkin.  He played like it for half a season in 2014 and a third of a season in 2015.  And let's be clear, he doesn't even have to turn into a pumpkin for him to lose tremendous amounts of value.  All he has to do is confirm 2016 was an outlier by regressing to career norms.  Or age.  Or have less team control.  And any combination of the above multiplies the effect.

 

The rest of your post implies we shouldn't trade him for anything that will ever be on the table (prospects) and continue to roll with this pitching staff.  We'll never get more than a, to use your terms I don't agree with, a 1/3 pitcher.  It won't happen.  So you've clearly ruled out trading Dozier at all.  So the question of the day goes back to you - how do you fix this pitching staff?  Since you have clearly ruled out that option.

 

And don't tell me a couple lesser prospects mitigates the risk you just laid out.  1/4 of a pitcher and two 1/8 pitchers doesn't magically make it a good deal.  

 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

Not really, it's not as though his contract is going to get longer or more team friendly from this point, he isn't suddenly going to become more valuable going forward.

And it's not as though only one team that is trying to compete was interested in him, the problem is the other teams were like the Giants and Angels.

Lets say at the deadline you have 4 teams in need of a 2nd basemen, the giants, angels, orioles and marlins, so you have a bidding war, big deal. None of the teams have anything remotely as good as Deleon to offer.

 

Yeah... That Use By This Date stamp on his forehead has been mentioned in this thread 1,249 times. 

 

Circumstances change.

 

Neil Walker gets hurt again... The Braves are 1st place in the East on June 1. Sam Coonrod develops a bugs bunny change and shoots up those prospect rankings.  

 

Things will look different... the landscape will move and I know this because it always does. 

 

and in the end... if Brian Dozier spoils in our arms... so be it. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

 

But what if they trade for Dozier and they experience a bunch of injuries to their starting rotation, and Dozier goes 0-fer in the playoffs, then the choras would be, "should have kept deleon, should have kept deleon" etc etc.

 

Then it would be a bad deal for the Dodgers

 

and now you get to keep him so you don't have to worry about that anymore. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I love that Twins fans continue with the narrative that Jose De Leon is a "24 year old"(age 23 season) with a negative connotation tied to age when the player they are trying to peddle didn't do bupkis until his age 26 season.  Fact is JDL was playing against older competition in AAA and had the highest strikeout rate in 4 years of any pitcher with a minimum of 15 starts. Not every pitcher develops at 18 like Urias or King Felix. That doesn't mean they are without value.

No one is saying JDL has no value.  No one. They just recognize that there's quite a bit of risk, which like it or not, there is.  He's not a sure thing, and he has plenty of question marks. I like JDL.  I'd take a package involving JDL and Stewart (I would ask for other pieces there), but that still keeps your pitching depth strong and gives you what you need.

 

Heck, if you needed to offload some bad contract to make it work, I'd be open to that too.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

They should target players they like.  And they should like players they are confident in.

 

I mean, what's the alternative to what I'm suggesting?  That FO run around blindly hoping?  What's the point of even having a scouting department then?

 

Isn't that what they did?  Isn't that why we are at an impasse?

 

I guess the question is what other prospects did they target (or were on the table).  It doesn't sound like Stewart, Alvarez, Verdugo, or Bellinger were there...  so what other prospects would you take? 

[TheLeviathan]

Isn't that what they did?  Isn't that why we are at an impasse?

 

I guess the question is what other prospects did they target (or were on the table).  It doesn't sound like Stewart, Alvarez, Verdugo, or Bellinger were there...  so what other prospects would you take?

 

Honestly, I don't know their prospects well enough. My point was just that if the Twins like DeLeon, then they should consider the trade a win already. I'd be greedy about things for risk and all that, but I wouldn't go crazy in what I demand.

 

What I'm trading is an asset with serious shelf life and serious risk of deflating, so to land a needed piece I really like is going to temper my expectations.

[dbminn]

 

I think most Dodgers fans would say no thanks to adding Alvarez, Buehler, or Bellinger to the deal and a lot would say no to Stewart as well.  Considering the second year of Kinsler's deal is a club option, it is very doable to get something worked out.  I think the Dodgers should talk to Texas about Profar too.  He's blocked and needs to play.  A deal including Harrison and McCutchen is a possibility.  Adding a Braun to LF would also offset the need for Dozier's bat.  They have options.  

 

None of your options fit as well as Dozier in terms of age, performance, position, contract and cost in prospects. The Dodgers are trying to win this year and not significantly add to their $200+ million budget. Some Dodger bloggers may not want to trade prospects but I'd think Dodger fans want the best player available. I think the Twins should wait to get full value.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

 
Based on the DodgerBlue reports, there weren't any other legit prospects in the deal.  No Alvarez (sorry Dave).  No Stewart.  No Bellinger.  No Verdugo.  That equates to a whole lot of risk given the potential reward.  To be honest, your reasoning here is why I feel it necessary to caveat my desire to trade Dozier with the "you don't trade him unless a good deal comes along."  Dozier for De Leon and spare change is not a good deal.  I don't care what his prospect ranking is. He's hardly a sure thing, and plenty of highly ranked prospects bust (see Young, Delmon, who I might add Friedman traded to us).  Just look at every other trade that has happened this year. Far more than a single De Leon type player changed hands.
 
I get there's risk on this end, and I get that we need pitching. The Dodgers know full well they are probably the only team negotiating and so they are bluffing. The Twins should (rightfully) call that bluff. LAD won't get Forsyth for De Leon plus change. They might get Kinsler, though there's this small problem of a no trade clause forcing them to extend him, the fact that he's much more expensive now, and the fact that he's a far greater risk to drop off or get hurt than Dozier in which case they are taking on far more risk.  If they were that concerned about Dozier's risk, they would be going after Kinsler.
 
The deal as the media is presenting it is absolute garbage.  I don't believe Alvarez is on the table for the simple reason that no one else close to the negotiations is reporting it, and LAD has every reason to leak that to someone other than Dave to paint the Twins as unreasonable. 

 

I think you missed my point. If you won't trade him now just for JDL, you won't trade him in 6 months or a year for only that.....so, if the point is, hold him and trade him later, who is going to offer JDL+ a legit prospect + one more piece? I'd guess, at this point, no one.

 

You and other are saying they can trade him later, I'm asking why/who is going to offer a top 20 prospect+another top 50-80 prospect+another prospect? 

[nicksaviking]

 

The team was probably never getting an ace in the Kershaw, Syndagard, Bumgarner sense though. Dozier just doesn't have the kind of consistent track record to get that, he's been to streaky throughout his career.

He's definitely worthy of a good return, but holding out for a Julio Urias type was never going to be in the cards.

 

No one's asking for Urias and the reason the Twins are asking for other quality pieces is because De Leon is not that kind of guy either.

[nicksaviking]

 

He doesn't need to say "a dodgers source said" and doing so could unintentionally revel his source to that sources employers, the source could have asked him specifically not to mention him in any form after providing the information.

 

Yes, yes he does need to say the idea came from a source, even if unnamed, unless he wants to construe the idea as his. Anyone who's stayed awake for even half of a journalism course could tell you that.

 

That's not how journalism works. That's how really terrible social media works. That's how the Fake News epidemic works, but that's not how journalists work.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

No, I also think the situation calls for asking for more to mitigate the risk.  But my approach to the second and third pieces is going to be quite different than many of you because I'm realistic about what Dozier's value is.  And I'm realistic about what a fair return is.

 

And more than anything, I'm realistic about what is most probable going forward to help this team win games again.  And that's going to require us to gamble on high upside pitching and hope our new FO identifies the right guys.  

 

Otherwise, enjoy your 25 HR Dozier seasons while we lose 8-5 90 some odd times.

But if you recall the Surplus Value discussion we had of prospects, isn't that also a realistic way to judge what the Dodgers are offering us?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Honestly, I don't know their prospects well enough. My point was just that if the Twins like DeLeon, then they should consider the trade a win already. I'd be greedy about things for risk and all that, but I wouldn't go crazy in what I demand.

What I'm trading is an asset with serious shelf life and serious risk of deflating, so to land a needed piece I really like is going to temper my expectations.

The way this is shaking out makes me wonder how much the Twins actually like De Leon.

 

It's possible they're asking for more on the back-end because they don't love the centerpiece.

 

And because they can't find a good fit with another team, they're working hard with the Dodgers because they don't have other options.

 

Dunno how I feel about that situation but it's a possibility.

[Lonestar]

It's cool that the Dodger fans are still here. They must think:

o Dozier is the best solution, and/or

o this trade is likely to happen, and/or

o this thread is as addictive for them as it is for us

 

Thanx for your contributions to the thread

[TheLeviathan]

I agree that is a possibility Brock. But DeLeon is still a valuable asset to have with far more flexibility than a 30 year old 2B.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Honestly, I don't know their prospects well enough. My point was just that if the Twins like DeLeon, then they should consider the trade a win already. I'd be greedy about things for risk and all that, but I wouldn't go crazy in what I demand.

What I'm trading is an asset with serious shelf life and serious risk of deflating, so to land a needed piece I really like is going to temper my expectations.

 

I don't think they consider him a win... precisely for all the reasons specified here.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's cool that the Dodger fans are still here. They must think:
o Dozier is the best solution, and/or
o this trade is likely to happen, and/or
o this thread is as addictive for them as it is for us

Thanx for your contributions to the thread

 

I'm going with

• Basketball sucks
• So do the Rams, Chargers, and Vikings

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree that is a possibility Brock. But DeLeon is still a valuable asset to have with far more flexibility than a 30 year old 2B.

I generally agree but I simply don't know enough about De Leon to form a real opinion.

 

If Falvey was the only guy involved here, I might be inclined to think the Twins were being unreasonable and that Derek may be taking a hard line to avoid looking bad in front of baseball and the press.

 

But with Levine on board - a seasoned front office veteran from a winning franchise - I'm wondering if it just boils down to the fact Friedman is trying to get Dozier for a song and the Twins aren't going to play his game.

 

Which is one of the reasons why I really liked the idea of picking up a second-in-command with tons of experience in this realm.

[TheLeviathan]

I just hope that line isn't TOO hard. I'm starting to think it might be.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I just hope that line isn't TOO hard. I'm starting to think it might be.

I worry about that as well but given the history of the respective parties, I'm inclined to believe it's Friedman who is being the hardass. 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Brian Dozier has already been that pumpkin.  He played like it for half a season in 2014 and a third of a season in 2015.  And let's be clear, he doesn't even have to turn into a pumpkin for him to lose tremendous amounts of value.  All he has to do is confirm 2016 was an outlier by regressing to career norms.  Or age.  Or have less team control.  And any combination of the above multiplies the effect.

 

The rest of your post implies we shouldn't trade him for anything that will ever be on the table (prospects) and continue to roll with this pitching staff.  We'll never get more than a, to use your terms I don't agree with, a 1/3 pitcher.  It won't happen.  So you've clearly ruled out trading Dozier at all.  So the question of the day goes back to you - how do you fix this pitching staff?  Since you have clearly ruled out that option.

 

And don't tell me a couple lesser prospects mitigates the risk you just laid out.  1/4 of a pitcher and two 1/8 pitchers doesn't magically make it a good deal.  

 

All MLB players have cold streaks - at what point were they a "pumpkin" vs. the natural ups and downs that every single player has? Dozier's have been pretty extreme, true, but over the course of a full season he has never been bad since his partial season rookie year. Four straight full seasons, ranging from above average to ~ #13 position player in baseball. Fluctuations like that are pretty standard.

 

I would try to trade Dozier for fair value, and would be open to position players as well as pitchers. All I would ask for is the same surplus value Dozier can reasonably be expected to provide - around $50 million. If it was somewhat close, say 80%, I'd think about it. At 60% it's just not something I would accept, nor apparently would Falvey.

 

Basically, I want a probabilistic return of 1 whole pitcher, factoring in that I could potentially trade a position player I received for pitching down the road. An example trade I would probably take from the Dodgers is Verdugo, Stewart, Buehler, and Ruiz. Around half a pitcher and half a position player, and not even including their big names.

 

Regardless of the Dozier trade, the Twins need a lot of their young players to step up, because otherwise there is no possible course of action that could result in a competitive team within the next several years. One prospect that throws 91 mph isn't going to make any difference in a world where Buxton doesn't pan out, Sano is mediocre, Berrios is in the bullpen, and so on.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

I worry about that as well but given the history of the respective parties, I'm inclined to believe it's Friedman who is being the hardass.

 

More worrisome to me is that they are both being hardasses.

[nicksaviking]

 

I generally agree but I simply don't know enough about De Leon to form a real opinion.

 

If Falvey was the only guy involved here, I might be inclined to think the Twins were being unreasonable and that Derek may be taking a hard line to avoid looking bad in front of baseball and the press.

 

But with Levine on board - a seasoned front office veteran from a winning franchise - I'm wondering if it just boils down to the fact Friedman is trying to get Dozier for a song and the Twins aren't going to play his game.

 

Which is one of the reasons why I really liked the idea of picking up a second-in-command with tons of experience in this realm.

 

Also, it's only the middle of January. Twenty-five man rosters aren't set for two and a half months.

[rossrarelytalks]

 

It's cool that the Dodger fans are still here. They must think:
o Dozier is the best solution, and/or
o this trade is likely to happen, and/or
o this thread is as addictive for them as it is for us

Thanx for your contributions to the thread

Well, thanks. It's the off-season and this is interesting. I enjoy seeing the opinions of other teams' fans.

 

On the current narrative, it's my opinion that the Dodgers do have quite a few very talented players in their system, which as I noted way earlier, is really great for us Dodger fans because that idiot Frank McCourt completely destroyed the farm system. I think that De Leon has very real potential, and I'd be happy to see him make the Dodger roster this spring. Having said that, I get the concern of twins fans because prospects are prospects and that's just scary. Especially pitching prospects. Personally, I think De Leon/Stewart is a pretty fair trade value for value. Both are real MLB prospects with decent to high upside. But I also get that the Dodgers are squirrely about giving up two MLB-ready pitchers, given what happened last year (we had to freaking trade for Bud Norris!).

 

So we'll see. How are you all feeling about your FO on this, though? The signals coming out of the Twins FO seem, from the outside, to be a bit concerning -- lots of "we want this resolved for Dozier's sake," but then "we'll never say no to a deal" stuff. The Dodger FO seems to me to be playing this pretty well, in that they can just kind of wait and see -- they'd obviously love to get Dozier, but also obviously don't feel it's crucial to get it done at all costs (which I'd say is the right position -- and as I said, I'd love to get him).

 

Anyway -- baseball is just so great. Talk to ya.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

How are you all feeling about your FO on this, though? The signals coming out of the Twins FO seem, from the outside, to be a bit concerning -- lots of "we want this resolved for Dozier's sake," but then "we'll never say no to a deal" stuff.

It doesn't concern me much. I think Falvey and (especially) Levine have enough experience to navigate this situation without turning it into a mess. I think what they're implying is that they're not going to pursue a Dozier trade after a specific date but if a team approaches them with an offer they like, they're still open to discussing a trade.

 

As for your trade idea, I'd be satisfied with De Leon and Stewart if I was the Twins. I'd take that deal. It wouldn't thrill me but it seems a fair swap of talent.

[DodgerFan1234]

It's cool that the Dodger fans are still here. They must think:

o Dozier is the best solution, and/or

o this trade is likely to happen, and/or

o this thread is as addictive for them as it is for us

 

Thanx for your contributions to the thread

Personally, I'm going with door #3. Dozier is not as important to the Dodgers fans as it is to the Twins fans and thus the boards are more dead. All of them. The Dodger fans here are the psychopaths that enjoy the lively conversation. For playing in such inhospitable conditions, Twins fans sure are pleasant people.

[DodgerFan1234]

<p>

 

I'm going with

• Basketball sucks
• So do the Rams, Chargers, and Vikings

The only good thing about yesterday's news is that my in-laws are die-hard Chargers fans. I don't like my in-laws. I

[jimmer]

Let's say a top pitching prospect nets you 10 WAR in his first six years.Gibson, who is, well, up and down and more like a #4 type pitcher than a #3 type pitcher, already has 5.8 WAR with only 3 years of service time).  Not really that great,  but as we know a huge chunk of top prospects end up just meh, right?  That's just how it goes.

 

In the next 6 years, one WAR will likely average out to around 9M.  So just a weak #3-decent #4 pitcher,  averaging 1.66 WAR a season during his controllable years, will be worth about 90M.  He likely doesn't get even a total of 2M in his first three controllable seasons.  Then, if he's only producing about 1.66 WAR a season, he likely doesn't get over 20M combined over his next three years.  Maybe he does.  Let's be generous and say 25M for his arbitration years and 2M for his pre-arbitration years.  That's 27M paid out to a player over 6 years who was worth 90M in those 6 years.  63M worth of surplus, for just a #weak#3/decent #4 type pitcher. Fangraphs (which thinks less of De Leon than a guy like Sickels) sees De Leon as a solid #3/#4 type pitcher. 

 

By comparison, an Ace type young pitcher like Noah Syndergaard, has already accumulated 9.6 WAR after two seasons which have been worth about 76M while he's gotten paid about 1M.  75M in surplus value (after ONLY two seasons. Imagine what the surplus value will be like for him after 6 years of controlled time).

 

Looking at Dozier.  If he averages about 4 WAR over the next two seasons, and one WAR during the next two years averages out to about 8.5M per WAR, that's 68M value.  His salary is 15M.  That's 53M in surplus value.

 

So yeah, I still think Dozier is worth more than JUST De Leon, but not that much more. It's not a slap in the face offer.  Some seem to think two years of Dozier is worth closer to a Syndergaard pitcher than a De Leon.  And before we say, well, De Leon could end up being a bust, that's simply the case with any pitcher.  They're just harder to project which is why clubs like the Cubs like to build their core around position players. Then they either trade players/prospects for proven MLB pitchers or just outright buy high quality MLB pitchers on the market for the rotation. We choose not to do the former and apparently can't do the latter.  That leaves us with waiting on the draft/development or trading chips like Dozier for quality prospects, hopefully close to MLB ready) to help fill our rotation.

[TheLeviathan]

Right you simply cannot acquire high level pitching without taking risks.  That includes the risks of giant FA contracts.  Or trades.  Or trying to flip FAs for former prospects that are on hard times.  

 

And we know this.  Kohl Stewart is an example.  So is Tyler Jay.  If your opposition to trading Dozier is that you want to get a "sure thing" pitcher in return, you should probably just drop the facade and admit there is no trade you'd accept.

[DodgerFan1234]

Let's say a top pitching prospect nets you 10 WAR in his first six years.Gibson, who is, well, up and down and more like a #4 type pitcher than a #3 type pitcher, already has 5.8 WAR with only 3 years of service time). Not really that great, but as we know a huge chunk of top prospects end up just meh, right? That's just how it goes.

 

In the next 6 years, one WAR will likely average out to around 9M. So just a weak #3-decent #4 pitcher, averaging 1.66 WAR a season during his controllable years, will be worth about 90M. He likely doesn't get even a total of 2M in his first three controllable seasons. Then, if he's only producing about 1.66 WAR a season, he likely doesn't get over 20M combined over his next three years. Maybe he does. Let's be generous and say 25M for his arbitration years and 2M for his pre-arbitration years. That's 27M paid out to a player over 6 years who was worth 90M in those 6 years. 63M worth of surplus, for just a #weak#3/decent #4 type pitcher. Fangraphs (which thinks less of De Leon than a guy like Sickels) sees De Leon as a solid #3/#4 type pitcher.

 

By comparison, an Ace type young pitcher like Noah Syndergaard, has already accumulated 9.6 WAR after two seasons which have been worth about 76M while he's gotten paid about 1M. 75M in surplus value (after ONLY two seasons. Imagine what the surplus value will be like for him after 6 years of controlled time).

 

Looking at Dozier. If he averages about 4 WAR over the next two seasons, and one WAR during the next two years averages out to about 8.5M per WAR, that's 68M value. His salary is 15M. That's 53M in surplus value.

 

So yeah, I still think Dozier is worth more than JUST De Leon, but not that much more. It's not a slap in the face offer. Some seem to think two years of Dozier is worth closer to a Syndergaard pitcher than a De Leon. And before we say, well, De Leon could end up being a bust, that's simply the case with any pitcher. They're just harder to project which is why clubs like the Cubs like to build their core around position players. Then they either trade players/prospects for proven MLB pitchers or just outright buy high quality MLB pitchers on the market for the rotation. We choose not to do the former and apparently can't do the latter. That leaves us with waiting on the draft/development or trading chips like Dozier for quality prospects, hopefully close to MLB ready) to help fill our rotation.

This. And WAR is not always WAR when it comes to what a team is willing to pay. Pitchers tend to get paid more per WAR than hitters. The Pirates just got done paying Ivan Nova $8.5MM/WAR. Whereas a more consistent albeit older hitter in EE than Dozier got paid $5MM/WAR. EE's averaged 4WAR the last 4 years whereas Dozier has averaged 5. Chris Carter, a guy that hit 40 homers just last year is still looking for a job. Bautista and others are still struggling in this market. So, Dozier's alleged excess value is imaginary. JDL is a good headline piece. More will need to be added. But it's laughable hearing some people's packages based on "excess value" as the driver.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Brian Dozier has already been that pumpkin.  He played like it for half a season in 2014 and a third of a season in 2015.  And let's be clear, he doesn't even have to turn into a pumpkin for him to lose tremendous amounts of value.  All he has to do is confirm 2016 was an outlier by regressing to career norms.  Or age.  Or have less team control.  And any combination of the above multiplies the effect.

There's risk in holding onto Dozier, but not to the extent you're implying. That Dozier has had long stretches of poor play insulates the negative effect of a bad start in 2017.  Dozier is a known streaky hitter--a poor start would fall in line with prior seasons where's proved very productive overall, and immensely so over his hot streaks.  In any case, because of his streakiness, I imagine that Dozier is already being valued with 2016 being somewhat of an outlier.  Further, that Dozier is a veteran his value is far more stable than that of De Leon, much less a pitching prospect who has nothing left to prove at the minor league level.      

 

An injury, or poor start for De Leon is far more damaging to his value, than it is for Dozier's.  The Dodger's also take on substantial risk by not dealing De Leon and not making a place for him in the rotation.  De Leon's value as a trade-piece is at its apex without sustained major league success.