Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[biggentleben]

 

The Braves would rather have Brandon Phillips than Brian Dozier

 

Says whom?

[Mike Sixel]

 

They're the slide show variety, just to warn you!

 

1-25

26-50

51-75

76-100

101-125

 

And, for reference in this discussion, I did a top 100 Braves prospects list in October. Here is the link to the list, and there are links on that page to the more in-depth reviews of each player.

Oh ya, now I recall.....but still, thanks!

[nicksaviking]

 

Holy cow, I'm not sure where you got your scouting report, but that's not Albies at all.

 

 

Baseball Prospectus:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30675

[biggentleben]

 

I find it hard to believe that the Braves are going to trade some of their top prospects for Dozier when they are A couple of years away from contending themselves.

 

And they're not. They're going to trade excess MLB-ready pitching, much like most of their deals this offseason. Guys like Wisler/Blair would be the lead of a deal with other pieces being involved, but most likely guys who are scheduled for the AA/AAA rotation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And they're not. They're going to trade excess MLB-ready pitching, much like most of their deals this offseason. Guys like Wisler/Blair would be the lead of a deal with other pieces being involved, but most likely guys who are scheduled for the AA/AAA rotation.

 

I just don't see much in terms of upside here personally.  Feel free to prove me wrong, but dealing Dozier for young cost controlled guys that cannot get Ks in the NL strikes me as a way to not fix our pitching problem.

[nicksaviking]

 

It would most likely be Wisler OR Albies headlining a deal, not both. I think Wisler gets drastically undersold by many unfamiliar with him, but he's LOVED in the baseball community and would have been a top 10 pitching prospect if he'd not have had stats that made things look crappy in the PCL. His peripherals were tons better, and just a few years later, we can look back and see a league adjusted ERA putting him at a fairly elite pitcher. He still was the #11 overall pitcher in BA's rankings that offseason.

 

Wisler hasn't been able to strike anyone out since 2013 and he gives up hits by the bushel. I don't see it, I don't think he belongs anywhere near the American League.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't LOVE any of the Braves' pitching prospects all that much, from my desk in Oregon....

 

To be clear, I know nothing ...

[biggentleben]

 

Baseball Prospectus:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30675

 

Yep, and BP writer David Lee has widely criticized much of that entire top 10 report. It was certainly not written by someone who took time to look at the organization at all or talk with anyone (including Lee) who had done scouting on Braves players.

 

Regardless, his arm being "stretched" at short was not due to a lack of arm strength at all. It was always more an accuracy issue. His reports on the swing contradict multiple reports over the last few years and certainly my own as his swing has a very good path through the zone.

 

Sometimes, even the nationally respected sources throw a dud, and this year's BP Braves list was definitely one of those.

[biggentleben]

 

I just don't see much in terms of upside here personally.  Feel free to prove me wrong, but dealing Dozier for young cost controlled guys that cannot get Ks in the NL strikes me as a way to not fix our pitching problem.

 

It's called Roger McDowell, when you talk about Wisler. His approach to Wisler drastically hurt the effectiveness of Wisler's stuff. Once again, I compared him to Brandon Webb due to his ability to miss barrels when he's on, but he was forced into going away from his tremendous sinker/slider combo by McDowell for some reason.

[biggentleben]

 

Wisler hasn't been able to strike anyone out since 2013 and he gives up hits by the bushel. I don't see it, I don't think he belongs anywhere near the American League.

 

He was forced into throwing a different pitch combination than his most effective one. He's never going to be a bat-miss guy, but his stuff misses a ton of bats when he's allowed to throw his sinker/slider combo well. I had an AL scout actually tell me that if there was one pitcher in the Braves system that he'd like to get his hands on, it'd be Wisler because he could see him producing like Webb/Derek Lowe very quickly with the right instruction.

[RaymondLuxuryYacht]

 

To be clear, I know nothing ...

Link?    Can anyone confirm this?

[ppearson50]

It does seem like the Twins are just trying to make one last try to get the Dodgers to budge on their offer by leaking to Mike B that the Braves are still involved. I think the Dodgers aren't budging. This thing has to be close to being resolved today or tomorrow. Here is my prediction.

 

Deleon and Calhoun. No third player. Calhoun can be moved to left field and could be a September call up or maybe see action even sooner. 

[biggentleben]

 

It does seem like the Twins are just trying to make one last try to get the Dodgers to budge on their offer by leaking to Mike B that the Braves are still involved. I think the Dodgers aren't budging. This thing has to be close to being resolved today or tomorrow. Here is my prediction.

 

Deleon and Calhoun. No third player. Calhoun can be moved to left field and could be a September call up or maybe see action even sooner. 

 

The Braves have been involved since November. Other teams have fallen off, so now the Braves appear a more real possibility, that's all.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Link?    Can anyone confirm this?

 

Ok, that was funny! thanks,

[Craig Arko]

Link?    Can anyone confirm this?

[Mike Sixel]

 

IMG_0647.JPG

 

If I ever look like that, just shoot me....

[Steve Lein]

So what are the deals we would be happy with from the Dodgers, at this point? Mine would be the following: 

 

1. De Leon + Alvarez + lotto ticket

 

2. De Leon + Verdugo + Stewart

 

3. De Leon + Stewart + Calhoun + Sheffield 

 

4. De Leon + Verdugo + Sheffield

 

5. De Leon + Buehler + Sheffield/Calhoun

 

I don't think it gets done without 2 pitchers. Those pitchers determining what else, if anything.

 

 

[ppearson50]

 

So what are the deals we would be happy with from the Dodgers, at this point? Mine would be the following: 

 

1. De Leon + Alvarez + lotto ticket

 

2. De Leon + Verdugo + Stewart

 

3. De Leon + Stewart + Calhoun + Sheffield 

 

4. De Leon + Verdugo + Sheffield

 

5. De Leon + Buehler + Sheffield/Calhoun

 

I don't think it gets done without 2 pitchers. Those pitchers determining what else, if anything.

As much as the Dodgers are dragging their feet, it feels like they wouldn't give up that much. I don't know if they have a Forsythe deal from the Rays lined up or what but there has to be a reason they are playing such hardball with the Twins. I think the Twins in the end buckle and take Deleon and whatever other prospect or prospects in the top 20 prospect list the Dodgers offer up. It feels like the Dodgers have all the leverage here. 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

He was forced into throwing a different pitch combination than his most effective one. He's never going to be a bat-miss guy, but his stuff misses a ton of bats when he's allowed to throw his sinker/slider combo well. I had an AL scout actually tell me that if there was one pitcher in the Braves system that he'd like to get his hands on, it'd be Wisler because he could see him producing like Webb/Derek Lowe very quickly with the right instruction.

 

If he's not going to be a bat miss guy the Twins don't need to be interested. Besides TD probably can't handle any more of my rants about how terrible the sinkerball is and how it should be banned by any team that likes to prevent runs.

[gunnarthor]

 

As much as the Dodgers are dragging their feet, it feels like they wouldn't give up that much. I don't know if they have a Forsythe deal from the Rays lined up or what but there has to be a reason they are playing such hardball with the Twins. I think the Twins in the end buckle and take Deleon and whatever other prospect or prospects in the top 20 prospect list the Dodgers offer up. It feels like the Dodgers have all the leverage here. 

From what little I've read about the Rays interest, they are more interested in Bellinger (and bats) over pitchers.  And Kinsler wants an extension to drop his no-trade clause (and Tigers want Bellinger too).  I think if the Dodgers don't get Dozier they'll re-sign Utley or go with some in-house options.  But Dozier really does fit them perfectly.

[biggentleben]

 

If he's not going to be a bat miss guy the Twins don't need to be interested. Besides TD probably can't handle any more of my rants about how terrible the sinkerball is and how it should be banned by any team that likes to prevent runs.

 

In all honesty, the Twins would be a bad fit for Wisler simply due to their infield defense, especially sans Dozier. I'm just saying he's a fairly valuable pitcher overall.

[biggentleben]

 

So what are the deals we would be happy with from the Dodgers, at this point? Mine would be the following: 

 

1. De Leon + Alvarez + lotto ticket

 

2. De Leon + Verdugo + Stewart

 

3. De Leon + Stewart + Calhoun + Sheffield 

 

4. De Leon + Verdugo + Sheffield

 

5. De Leon + Buehler + Sheffield/Calhoun

 

I don't think it gets done without 2 pitchers. Those pitchers determining what else, if anything.

 

I had Alvarez in my top 10 and De Leon in my top 25. That'd be an incredible haul for Dozier without the lotto ticket.

[Lonestar]

The Braves have been involved since November. Other teams have fallen off, so now the Braves appear a more real possibility, that's all.

So Ben, what would you propose for a Braves offer that both teams could live with

[drjim]

In all honesty, the Twins would be a bad fit for Wisler simply due to their infield defense, especially sans Dozier. I'm just saying he's a fairly valuable pitcher overall.

Wisler seems like a slightly worse version of Gibson. Maybe he'll put it together better than Gibson did.

[nicksaviking]

 

Wisler seems like a slightly worse version of Gibson. Maybe he'll put it together better than Gibson did.

 

I'd rather the team try to cure Gibson of his sinkeritis first. If they heal him then they can see about fixing other pitchers with his ailment and vaccinating the ones that have yet to contract the disease.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ok, this post seems to be going in a couple directions.

 

You've said before he is in his prime and with his consistent ISO increase and HR increase the player we saw this year is who he is (although it makes it sound like he's just going to keep getting better the way you've said it).  In this post you say there is no reason he can't be a 6 WAR player moving forward (I have no idea how far forward, but forward).If that's the case with Dozier, it pretty much makes him a top 10 position player in the majors. As you look around the league, is it your opinion he's one of the best 10 position players in baseball going forward?

 

Then you say he's AT LEAST a 4.8-5.2 WAR guy.  That's something like 20-25th best player.  Do you envision Dozier being a top 20-25 type player going forward?

 

A top 10 player?  A top 25 player? Something else?  He's averaged about 4 WAR over the last 4 years. A 4 WAR player is in the top 40 most of the time (or right about there) Is he in THAT range going forward into his 30s?

I can't speak for Dave but if Dozier stays healthy over the next two seasons, I think his over/under is somewhere around an 8 fWAR. I think his power spike is legit (probably not 40 homer legit but maybe 30-35 homer legit) but he'll continue to lose on defense and baserunning.

[jimmer]

I can't speak for Dave but if Dozier stays healthy over the next two seasons, I think his over/under is somewhere around an 8 fWAR. I think his power spike is legit (probably not 40 homer legit but maybe 30-35 homer legit) but he'll continue to lose on defense and baserunning.

I agree. 8 WAR over the next two is about right, give or take a 1/2 WAR.

[Lonestar]

I'd rather the team try to cure Gibson of his sinkeritis first. If they heal him then they can see about fixing other pitchers with his ailment and vaccinating the ones that have yet to contract the disease.

I don't think Gibson's problem is the 2-seamer. He increased the use of his 4-seamer from 19.8% to 27.8% at the expense of his slider and change up.

[jimmer]

I had Alvarez in my top 10 and De Leon in my top 25. That'd be an incredible haul for Dozier without the lotto ticket.

exactly. Been saying that all along

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't think Gibson's problem is the 2-seamer. He increased the use of his 4-seamer from 19.8% to 27.8% at the expense of his slider and change up.

 

Brooksbaseball says the 4 seemer decreased last year from 16 to 13%.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502043&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&endDate=01/06/2017&startDate=06/16/2009

 

Not that it much matters to me, we both agree that it's at the expense of his change and slider. His change is his best pitch, he needs to use it more, especially in 2 strike counts.