Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jimmer]

 

But all three will be in the Twins organization in 2019 and beyond. Dozier won't be.

oh, you never know....

[AZTwin]

But all three will be in the Twins organization in 2019 and beyond. Dozier won't be.

A player averaging 5 WAR for 2 seasons is worth significantly more than a person that averages 1.8 WAR a season for 6 seasons. Keep in mind the return you get for a player like that if you so chose and you have the inside chance of continue to have that WAR at subsequent seasons.

[CiabanItReal]

 

A player averaging 5 WAR for 2 seasons is worth significantly more than a person that averages 1.8 WAR a season for 6 seasons. Keep in mind the return you get for a player like that if you so chose and you have the inside chance of continue to have that WAR at subsequent seasons.

To bad none of the players being talked about from either team has averaged 5 war for 2 seasons though.

[AZTwin]

To bad none of the players being talked about from either team has averaged 5 war for 2 seasons though.

Sorry averaged 4.7 WAR over 3 years with upward projectory. To assume 5 WAR is so ludicrous

[CiabanItReal]

 

Sorry averaged 4.7 WAR over 3 years with upward projectory. To assume 5 WAR is so ludicrous

Yeah it averages that because in his career year he produced 6.5 rWAR to help fix the 2.4 he put up the previous year.

He's a streaky hitter, and a streaky producer from year to year, his 2018 could go any number of ways.

Side note: Did you mean projection or trajectory? Because I'm pretty sure that portmanteau isn't a word.

[AZTwin]

Yeah it averages that because in his career year he produced 6.5 rWAR to help fix the 2.4 he put up the previous year.

He's a streaky hitter, and a streaky producer from year to year, his 2018 could go any number of ways.

Side note: Did you mean projection or trajectory? Because I'm pretty sure that portmanteau isn't a word.

And the 5.2 WAR the year before. Call 2.4 and 6.5 outliers and stick with 5 WAR. Seems fair. And what he was doing at the end of last year was more sustainable as something clicked and he was using a great new found approach. And yes trajectory

[rossrarelytalks]

 

 the Twins aren't really interested in Bellinger or Verdugo. Pitching is what they are truly after. De Leon has only exceeded 100 innings once in his minor league career dating back to 2013. He has a persistent history of shoulder problems and other health problems. Pretty troubling for a center piece of a trade. On top of that his major league debut couldn't have gone more poorly in 2016, getting clobbered in the first 4 games overall. Alvarez the other rumored piece is only in A ball and yet to exceed 60 innings of minor league experience. Sure the dodgers invested a ton of money to get him to this point but proven next to nothing nor pitched a single inning of major league ball. Hardly a center piece of a deal either. Finally, Brock Stewart. He is probably the most reliable of the before mentioned players having pitched in 7 games last season. Again however he has not excelled by any stretch of the imagination.

What is the common denominator in all of this? None of these prospects has proven a dam thing yet. The Twins would be INSANELY CRAZY to trade a 6+ War second baseman who hit 40+ homeruns for just JDL.

No way the Dodgers expect to get Dozier for just De Leon. That rumor is ridiculous. I'd never make that trade if I were the Twins. I do not believe this is a credible rumor.

[specialiststeve]

Not that the Braves are actually in it or not but I do believe Albies, Newcomb and Sorka may get it done. Albies could start at short "this" year he is that good.

[specialiststeve]

 

 the Twins aren't really interested in Bellinger or Verdugo. Pitching is what they are truly after. De Leon has only exceeded 100 innings once in his minor league career dating back to 2013. He has a persistent history of shoulder problems and other health problems. Pretty troubling for a center piece of a trade. On top of that his major league debut couldn't have gone more poorly in 2016, getting clobbered in the first 4 games overall. Alvarez the other rumored piece is only in A ball and yet to exceed 60 innings of minor league experience. Sure the dodgers invested a ton of money to get him to this point but proven next to nothing nor pitched a single inning of major league ball. Hardly a center piece of a deal either. Finally, Brock Stewart. He is probably the most reliable of the before mentioned players having pitched in 7 games last season. Again however he has not excelled by any stretch of the imagination.

What is the common denominator in all of this? None of these prospects has proven a dam thing yet. The Twins would be INSANELY CRAZY to trade a 6+ War second baseman who hit 40+ homeruns for just JDL.

 

Actually it has been documented in several national places that the hangup may be Bellinger. He is major league ready and would start day 1 in left field and when Mauers contract is up has the glove to move there if needed. That is the likely hangup. Arms are nice but fall off.... bats just keep on ticking. I would guess that if he was included it would be done tomorrow..... Twin's keep waiting for tomorrow.

[CiabanItReal]

 

And the 5.2 WAR the year before. Call 2.4 and 6.5 outliers and stick with 5 WAR. Seems fair. And what he was doing at the end of last year was more sustainable as something clicked and he was using a great new found approach. And yes trajectory

I was counting the 5.2, he also put up a 3.7 in a full season the year before that which brings the average down to 4.5 which is still a good player.
That being said the fact that he hasn't show a steady line of production, it's not as though he went from 2.4-3.7-5.2-6.5 he's been all over the place.

The last month of the year he hit 263/.323/.561 which is good but not insane.

In fact his whole season was all over the place, the first two months he was awful, then he was incredible, then good, the incredible, then good again.

Last year was like a microcosm for Dozier's career, all over the map, but at the end of the day it all averages to a good not elite player.

[CiabanItReal]

 

 

Not that the Braves are actually in it or not but I do believe Albies, Newcomb and Sorka may get it done. Albies could start at short "this" year he is that good.

Which makes you wonder why they would want Dozier, since Dansby Swanson and Albies should both be ready to go soon, and only one can play SS.

[specialiststeve]

 

Which makes you wonder why they would want Dozier, since Dansby Swanson and Albies should both be ready to go soon, and only one can play SS.

 

There is a ton of "disinformation" being floated out there. My guess is that the names that are being mentioned have at least checked in and like most have a price they are willing to pay.... Twin's are wanting to be Wowed and the new front office HAS to make sure the first trade they make is in everyones mind a great deal. Coming in and doing a So/So deal would not be a good thing.

[AZTwin]

4.5 WAR average over first 4 years and trending up sounds like a hell of a player to me.

[CiabanItReal]

 

4.5 WAR average over first 4 years and trending up sounds like a hell of a player to me.

Going from 2.4 to 6.5 isn't trending up, it's more being all over the place. He just as likely could go back to being the 2.5 war player he was in 2015 or the 6.5 war player he was in 2016 or anything in between, because he's all over the place in his career.

 

And by trending upwards, are you suggesting that last year was not only his new norm, but we and everyone else should expect improvement over the season he produced

[biggentleben]

 

IDK we would have heard more about them by now, the front office wouldn't have been wasting time bringing up the Giants, Cards, and Angels if the braves were really that interested.

Personally I don't like Newcomb that much, guys who walk 71 batters in 140 innings scare me, he reminds me of Kyle Crick.

I do not like him better than deleon.

 

Then perhaps you could have gone to the Braves message boards because Braves beat guys have discussed the team's discussions with the Twins about Dozier since November. I'm not sure why it wasn't more publicized outside of that circle, and it was brought up by multiple Braves fans that perhaps there was little to the rumor because it was so under-covered nationally, but team officials have talked about how they've stayed with these discussions in spite of adding other pieces while they've moved on from Phillips after adding guys like Sean Rodriguez to the team.

 

As far as Newcomb, looking just at stats and not knowing what's behind them can be a fallacy of scouting the stat line. The Angels rarely had Newcomb go deep into games, and the Braves immediately altered Newcomb's mechanics and his approach in his starts. It took time for Newcomb to work with his coaches to develop a feel for both. He closed the season dominating from August 1st to the end of the season, making 6 regular season starts, throwing 34 2/3 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and a 13/44 BB/K ratio.

[biggentleben]

 

It's tough to judge Alvarez at this stage. At this time next year he could be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball.

But yeah, that's a great return for Minnesota.

 

Heh, I already have him there...and not just based on my own views, but on the views of a lot of people I've talked with around the game.

[biggentleben]

 

Not that the Braves are actually in it or not but I do believe Albies, Newcomb and Sorka may get it done. Albies could start at short "this" year he is that good.

 

And I think the Braves laugh and hang up at that offer.

[biggentleben]

 

Which makes you wonder why they would want Dozier, since Dansby Swanson and Albies should both be ready to go soon, and only one can play SS.

 

Because most likely Albies is not on the table due to his price not being what the Braves believe his value truly is. From a few doctors I've talked with who have experience working with the type of fracture Albies suffered, it's very feasible that he is not 100% at any point in 2017. Of course, the team is saying he'll be ready for opening day, and he could be, but he could also never feel 100% as well as the joint heals.

 

The Braves have tremendous depth throughout their system. You get Dozier while keeping Albies, you can let Albies take his time healing, then flip Dozier before 2018 and give the spot to Albies and get a return of your own for Dozier.

[rossrarelytalks]

 

Actually it has been documented in several national places that the hangup may be Bellinger. He is major league ready and would start day 1 in left field and when Mauers contract is up has the glove to move there if needed. That is the likely hangup. Arms are nice but fall off.... bats just keep on ticking. I would guess that if he was included it would be done tomorrow..... Twin's keep waiting for tomorrow.

Yeah, that may be the case on the Twins side, but if they insist on Bellinger, the Dodgers will say no and do something else. I would love to have Dozier, he's very good and would help the Dodgers greatly. And I'm not a guy who would propose some dumb one-sided deal. But we just aren't going to give up Bellinger for him. No Alvarez either. Those guys are not going to be in a Dozier trade. Think it's cool for the Twins to say no, if you can't get one of those guys -- I get that the new FO wants to make a move fans will think is strong. But if that's the case it's going to be no deal. I do wonder if the Dodger FO would consider Buehler. I think no, but they might. We want to win now.

[laloesch]

Yeah, that may be the case on the Twins side, but if they insist on Bellinger, the Dodgers will say no and do something else. I would love to have Dozier, he's very good and would help the Dodgers greatly. And I'm not a guy who would propose some dumb one-sided deal. But we just aren't going to give up Bellinger for him. No Alvarez either. Those guys are not going to be in a Dozier trade. Think it's cool for the Twins to say no, if you can't get one of those guys -- I get that the new FO wants to make a move fans will think is strong. But if that's the case it's going to be no deal. I do wonder if the Dodger FO would consider Buehler. I think no, but they might. We want to win now.

Well Alvarez isn't going to help the Dodgers win now. He's thrown 59 innings of A ball. he won't be in the majors for at least 2 seasons, probably 3 full season at the absolute earliest. If the Dodgers TRUELY Want Dozier there gonna have to pay a fair price. The Twins aren't going to give him away for nothing because LA has unlimited money and a god complex. None of the potential return prospects has proven a SINGLE thing yet with the exception of Urias.

[CiabanItReal]

I wonder how the twins will try to ring the braves out for prospects if the dodgers back out or go another direction.

[AZTwin]

At this point I hope the dodgers go another direction. I think that would work out better for the twins in the long run.

[CiabanItReal]

 

At this point I hope the dodgers go another direction. I think that would work out better for the twins in the long run.

Unless Dozier leaves in free agency in after putting up 2 good seasons on a continuously bad Minnasotta team, then it does the twins no good.

[AZTwin]

Unless Dozier leaves in free agency in after putting up 2 good seasons on a continuously bad Minnasotta team, then it does the twins no good.

Much better than a couple arms with major flags that might end up in the bullpen even if they turn out. We will get a better return mid season when those guys are practically 26 and 25 respectively, no legitimate major league experience, and still throwing under 110 innings a year or have their shoulders flare up again all while our player is posting a 4.5+ WAR in the majors. Even if we hold on to him at the break, that's valuable to have on this squad for 2 years to help show the young guns how a veteran star prepares, and get a draft pick when he leaves.

[AZTwin]

It's no secret that the dodgers had a lot of injuries to pitchers last year. I wonder if that's a direct result of how much the pitchers are babied in the minors. Maybe none of their guys can hold up a whole major league season because of it. I would be extemely cautious make a trade with a club that claims to have an abundance of pitchers but none of them can pitch over 100 innings during a year without their shoulder flaring up. TONS of RISK here folks. Let them keep their guys and let's find a potential trade partner at the deadline

[AZTwin]

The innings pitched thing just blows my mind. All of their guys hover around 100 innings. Most in the top 100 are 140+ in minors. Ours ranged 140-167 for most part besides Jay, who of course we shut down because he is a relief pitcher we're trying to convert.

 

These guys are entering their prime and practically at Jay number of innings. Do we really expect to acquire these guys and expect them to magically double the amount of pitches they can throw in season 1? My guess it would take until their age 27-28 season before you could even think about giving them 190+ innings. And even that is an aggressive timeline.

 

I would want their top 2 pitchers (Deleon and Alvarez) along with Lux and verdugo to even think about making a trade. I'm really glad falvey and co are holding out

[DodgerFan1234]

It's no secret that the dodgers had a lot of injuries to pitchers last year. I wonder if that's a direct result of how much the pitchers are babied in the minors. Maybe none of their guys can hold up a whole major league season because of it. I would be extemely cautious make a trade with a club that claims to have an abundance of pitchers but none of them can pitch over 100 innings during a year without their shoulder flaring up. TONS of RISK here folks. Let them keep their guys and let's find a potential trade partner at the deadline

I don't think this is an accurate statement at all. In the last 5 years the only guy I can think of that was a known prospect at the time going through the system that then needed surgery was Stripling. Kershaw came through the system and has been a workhorse for a decade before the back this year. Buehler required it before he entered the system hence why he dropped. McCarthy/Ryu/Wood/Kazmir were not babied through the Dodgers minors.

 

As far as the Dodger philosophy of handling average or better pitchers in the minors they have a specific quotient. They aggressively push the level of competition but remain very conservative in the number of innings and go up 30-50% from the prior year once they have them at the top level or 2. So they may see100 innings top out until AAA or MLB. Then they ease guys in over 2 years. It's what they did with Kershaw. It's what they'll do with Urias and what they'll do with DeLeon should he stay.

 

And who really cares about the Twins philosophy on pitching. For as good as the hitting development has been the pitching development has been crap. Exact opposite with the Dodgers. Just organizational philosiphies and hence why they happen to be decent trade partners at the moment. I (and any team in baseball) would rather get 100 good-great innings than 150 shyte-average innings. The Dodgers generally do a better job at finding those guys that will get you those good innings. Ask them to get you a decent hitting 2B and you get the shrug emoji.

[HitInAPinch]

 

I beg to differ here. I'm not against acquiring guys like the ones I suggested, but I do think the Twins need pitchers right now. The hitting core is here. The pitching... well it isn't.  In terms of pitchers on the roster that could be future contributors to the next winning team you have Berrios, May, and maybe Gibson...  None of these are sure things, that's not up for debate. 2017 needs to be a time where we have these guys in the rotation taking some lumps.

 

If we acquire a guy who doesn't sniff MLB until 2018 or later, he's taking lumps in 2018 or later when guys like Sano and Buxton are established.  By the time the pitching is ready, Sano is a free agent. That I don't think is good. The Twins need guys now. That's where De Leon and Stewart in particular fit the Twins' need. Yeah, I want more than that, but with those two in uniform, I'd have no problems trading Santana and Santiago for more prospects and rolling with Gibson, De Leon, Berrios, Stewart, and May opening day.  That leaves Mejia, Gonsalves, and maybe Duffey in AAA as depth (unless Duffey goes to the pen).  At least then you're seeing which pitching sticks, and if the hitting really steps forward, we can look at FA options for 2018 given how good the pitching FA class looks to be.

 

I don't think you can do that if we get pitching that won't show up until 2018 or later.

I respectfully disagree.  Oh, sure, it would be great if any pitcher the Twins acquire can bolt out of Spring Training an force their way into the rotation. 

 

However, I don't believe the hitting core is there, yet.  I'm hopefull this is their year, but I still have some doubts about Buxton, Kepler, Rosario and Sano.  They're still in the "MLB in Training" phase.  It would be fantastic if all of them put it all together this year.  I just feel there's nothing to lose by acquiring pitchers with an upside that may need another year in the MiLB.  That's all. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

And the 5.2 WAR the year before. Call 2.4 and 6.5 outliers and stick with 5 WAR. Seems fair. And what he was doing at the end of last year was more sustainable as something clicked and he was using a great new found approach. And yes trajectory

 

That's not how it works.

[biggentleben]

 

I wonder how the twins will try to ring the braves out for prospects if the dodgers back out or go another direction.

 

You've been paying attention to how the Braves have traded, right?

 

This isn't a "fanboy" take, either. They turned two guys picked up off the scrap heap after opening day into arguably the most-discussed player in the Arizona Fall League and a definite top 150-200 prospect in the game. They turned Jeff Francoeur into anything. They've (twice) turned Kelly Johnson into legitimate prospects. And all that isn't even touching the San Diego and Arizona trades that quite literally re-made the farm system.

 

What I'm saying is good luck in "ringing out" anything with Coppy and the Braves.