Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Strato Guy]

For what it is worth, 8 of the top 12 prospects for the Braves are pitchers. So they may be willing to part with some pitching.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=atl

[ashbury]

Regardless, his arm being "stretched" at short was not due to a lack of arm strength at all. It was always more an accuracy issue.

But accuracy can be the symptom, when arm strength is the underlying issue. He tries to give the throw a little more oomph, and suddenly the first baseman is lunging in any of four directions (or combinations thereof). Our Jorge Polanco is an example of this, IMO.

[laloesch]

 

I don't think Gibson's problem is the 2-seamer. He increased the use of his 4-seamer from 19.8% to 27.8% at the expense of his slider and change up.

 

The question is why?

[Steve Lein]

 

I had Alvarez in my top 10 and De Leon in my top 25. That'd be an incredible haul for Dozier without the lotto ticket.

 

I don't disagree. However, I would bet more money on Alvarez getting hurt before he ever reaches the majors, than I would on him reaching all of his potential. His pitching profile (and where he currently is at in his development) is the biggest type of injury risk there is in baseball, and that is the reason a lot of other lists don't currently have him near the top 25.

[Lonestar]

Brooksbaseball says the 4 seemer decreased last year from 16 to 13%.

 

http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=502043&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=year&minmax=ci&var=pcount&s_type=2&endDate=01/06/2017&startDate=06/16/2009

 

Not that it much matters to me, we both agree that it's at the expense of his change and slider. His change is his best pitch, he needs to use it more, especially in 2 strike counts.

Huge disparity between Fangraphs' data and Brooks Baseball's

[darin617]

 

Kinsler won't approve the trade without an extension.  Dodgers' don't want that.  Kinsler isn't a good fit.

 

Why would Kinsler not be a good fit for the Dodgers??? They need another right handed bat for their lineup. The only sticking point would the length of an extension. So for a team the spends money like a drunken sailor on leave it would not stop LA if they wanted to make a deal.

[BK432]

 

It would most likely be Wisler OR Albies headlining a deal, not both. I think Wisler gets drastically undersold by many unfamiliar with him, but he's LOVED in the baseball community and would have been a top 10 pitching prospect if he'd not have had stats that made things look crappy in the PCL. His peripherals were tons better, and just a few years later, we can look back and see a league adjusted ERA putting him at a fairly elite pitcher. He still was the #11 overall pitcher in BA's rankings that offseason.

 

That's fair - I'm definitely still close to high man in the room on Wisler so I thought maybe we could steal both but you're right - that would seem to be quite a haul.

[doscinco]

http://www.minorleagueball.com

 

A new Dodgers top 20 list

[darin617]

 

Brian Dozier would be a superstar in Altanta, as far as being a fan-favorite type goes.

 

I agree and would add Dozier would become a fan favorite where ever he landed. That is what hurts the most trading him is that he is not a "Randy Moss" type of guy. It will be a sad day when Brian Dozier is no longer a Twin.

[Steve Lein]

 

I agree and would add Dozier would become a fan favorite where ever he landed. That is what hurts the most trading him is that he is not a "Randy Moss" type of guy. It will be a sad day when Brian Dozier is no longer a Twin.

 

That statement had more to do with he is a southern guy, and will immediately click with a southern fan base with his personality.

 

We all like him here, obviously, but that is nothing compared with how it would be for a team in the south, east of Texas specifically.

[darin617]

 

It does seem like the Twins are just trying to make one last try to get the Dodgers to budge on their offer by leaking to Mike B that the Braves are still involved. I think the Dodgers aren't budging. This thing has to be close to being resolved today or tomorrow. Here is my prediction.

 

Deleon and Calhoun. No third player. Calhoun can be moved to left field and could be a September call up or maybe see action even sooner. 

 

I would rather hold onto Brian Dozier if this is the deal. Worst case scenario you could throw Dozier out there in July if he has a decent year.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I would rather hold onto Brian Dozier if this is the deal. Worst case scenario you could throw Dozier out there in July if he has a decent year.

 

As much as we lament Calhoun's lack of defensive prowess and foot speed, who would have thought Dozier could get two top 100 prospects back in May 2016?

 

If this IS the deal, hypothetically, the Twins can still upgrade their roster through other means between today and spring training. And there is no one here who would tell me that adding De Leon wouldn't excite them for the 2017 season. And Calhoun CAN HIT!

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

As much as we lament Calhoun's lack of defensive prowess and foot speed, who would have thought Dozier could get two top 100 prospects back in May 2016?

 

If this IS the deal, hypothetically, the Twins can still upgrade their roster through other means between today and spring training. And there is no one hear who would tell me that adding De Leon wouldn't excite them for the 2017 season. And Calhoun CAN HIT!

 

I respectfully, and seriously disagree.

 

Yes Calhoun is a good prospect. But the Twins need PITCHING. Specifically starting pitching. Adding Calhoun as a third piece would be fine (not that the Dodgers would do that). They need two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers (at least) for Dozier. This is the Twins' one shot at improving their rotation in 2017 and beyond.  De Leon, Stewart and Alvarez, or Calhoun would do it for me. 

 

Personally, I don't think this deal is made this offseason. The longer we wait, the more the deal is stalled. Quite frankly, if the Dodgers won't trade De Leon, Stewart and one or two other prospects for Dozier, I'd walk away.

 

If Dave W is right, and it's De Leon and Alvarez, that's fine, but I'd want another MLB-ready starting pitcher. 

If we get two MLB-ready pitchers, plus, for Dozier, the Twins have enough other talent on this club to at least win 81 games this season, and with Golsalves coming up probably in 2018, have a shot at becoming a contender.

 

Trades HAVE TO BE ABOUT improving both teams, not just one. Yes, the Twins are asking a lot for Dozier. But to the Dodgers he should be well worth it.

[laloesch]

 

As much as we lament Calhoun's lack of defensive prowess and foot speed, who would have thought Dozier could get two top 100 prospects back in May 2016?

 

If this IS the deal, hypothetically, the Twins can still upgrade their roster through other means between today and spring training. And there is no one here who would tell me that adding De Leon wouldn't excite them for the 2017 season. And Calhoun CAN HIT!

 

This whole imminent trade thing is a scam.  Nothing is going to happen.  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

So just a question for the Dodger fans... I'm really curious what package(s) you would offer up for Dozier.  Instead of criticizing his value, let's have a fun exercise and see what you are willing to throw out.

I've tried not to be critical of Dozier.  I think he's a good player and an upgrade.  I just don't think he's a top 3 player like some have asserted.  I would offer JDL(future #2 or #3), choice of De Jong or Oaks(#4 or #5), Sheffield( wildcard from a #2 to bullpen), and Edwin Rios.  If the Twins can't get better than that from the Braves they should take it.

[Riverbrian]

As much as the Dodgers are dragging their feet, it feels like they wouldn't give up that much. I don't know if they have a Forsythe deal from the Rays lined up or what but there has to be a reason they are playing such hardball with the Twins. I think the Twins in the end buckle and take Deleon and whatever other prospect or prospects in the top 20 prospect list the Dodgers offer up. It feels like the Dodgers have all the leverage here.

In my opinion... the Dodgers and Twins have equal amounts of leverage. Go down the list of Plan B 2B's should they fail to acquire Dozier. The options will be much more expensive... cost more in prospects or be a significant drop off in talent. Forsythe is a lesser player than Dozier on a team that needs MLB ready offense.

 

The Dodgers and Twins kind of need each other and that is probably why we are still waiting for it to happen in January.

 

The Dodgers are the team with the huge payroll and needing to get past the Cubs, Nats, Cards, Mets and Giants. If they don't and Dozier isn't on the roster. Questions will be asked.

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

I respectfully, and seriously disagree.

 

Yes Calhoun is a good prospect. But the Twins need PITCHING. Specifically starting pitching. Adding Calhoun as a third piece would be fine (not that the Dodgers would do that). They need two near-MLB-ready starting pitchers (at least) for Dozier. This is the Twins' one shot at improving their rotation in 2017 and beyond.  De Leon, Stewart and Alvarez, or Calhoun would do it for me. 

 

Personally, I don't think this deal is made this offseason. The longer we wait, the more the deal is stalled. Quite frankly, if the Dodgers won't trade De Leon, Stewart and one or two other prospects for Dozier, I'd walk away.

 

If Dave W is right, and it's De Leon and Alvarez, that's fine, but I'd want another MLB-ready starting pitcher. 

If we get two MLB-ready pitchers, plus, for Dozier, the Twins have enough other talent on this club to at least win 81 games this season, and with Golsalves coming up probably in 2018, have a shot at becoming a contender.

 

Trades HAVE TO BE ABOUT improving both teams, not just one. Yes, the Twins are asking a lot for Dozier. But to the Dodgers he should be well worth it.

 

So are you saying there is absolutely no way to acquire pitching, ever, outside of a Dozier trade? The turnaround is going to take time. Adding De Leon this season, along with 3 high picks in the draft, and another full season and offseason getting the front office in place, all the while letting your prospects grow and mature and develop, 2018 and 2019 is when the results of upgrading the rotation will take place.

 

Brock Stewart. I like him. I'd LOVE it if the Twins got him. I think he is going to be a good major league starter. I don't think the Twins are lost if they don't get him, and will have to give up for the next 3 seasons if they don't acquire him in a trade. The big deal with trading Dozier is acquiring talent and potential. If they get Calhoun, they are getting an asset and a position player who can hit. He doesn't help the pitching, but they can always trade other prospects/players/assets and acquire pitching over the next 1-3 years to at some point get to a quality rotation.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

I've tried not to be critical of Dozier.  I think he's a good player and an upgrade.  I just don't think he's a top 3 player like some have asserted.  I would offer JDL(future #2 or #3), choice of De Jong or Oaks(#4 or #5), Sheffield( wildcard from a #2 to bullpen), and Edwin Rios.  If the Twins can't get better than that from the Braves they should take it.

 

Or just keep Dozier. Which would be my vote if that was the best the Dodgers will do.

[biggentleben]

 

So Ben, what would you propose for a Braves offer that both teams could live with

 

You're asking the wrong guy as I'm not a fan of acquiring Dozier at all for the Braves, so my offer would be insultingly low.

 

For value in the game, a guy like Blair, who was a top 50 guy but that Arizona absolutely ruined and was forced to Atlanta and on the AAA/MLB bus too much last year to truly get things, could be a big piece. A guy like Rio Ruiz, who was in AAA all 2016 with very solid defense at third and excellent pitch recognition with developing power, would seem to be a good fit. Those would be guys close.

 

Then you could take a look at the depth of middle infield for the Braves as another spot that could be in demand in the Twins system, and that could lead to Travis Demeritte being an interesting piece.

 

If a trade was Blair, Ruiz, and Demeritte, that'd be a former top 50 overall and two guys who are in the top 25 of the Braves right now.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I've tried not to be critical of Dozier.  I think he's a good player and an upgrade.  I just don't think he's a top 3 player like some have asserted.  I would offer JDL(future #2 or #3), choice of De Jong or Oaks(#4 or #5), Sheffield( wildcard from a #2 to bullpen), and Edwin Rios.  If the Twins can't get better than that from the Braves they should take it.

Well that offer would totally depend on how the Twins view Sheffield.  I don't think they were that high on him around draft time and I'm not sure he's done much since then.  I think he's a closer and neither De Jong or Rios are anything other than AAAA types at this point so they wouldn't make/break any deal.

 

Personally, I'd keep Dozier over that but if someone though Sheffield could start, they might take that deal.

[biggentleben]

 

For what it is worth, 8 of the top 12 prospects for the Braves are pitchers. So they may be willing to part with some pitching.

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=atl

 

Remember that was from over the summer.

 

My Braves top 100 (of the guys still in the system after a few offseason trades) had 6 pitchers and 4 hitters in the top 10, an even 10/10 in the top 20, and 13 pitchers to 17 hitters in the top 30.

[biggentleben]

 

But accuracy can be the symptom, when arm strength is the underlying issue. He tries to give the throw a little more oomph, and suddenly the first baseman is lunging in any of four directions (or combinations thereof). Our Jorge Polanco is an example of this, IMO.

 

I can say from scouting him that it is not an issue of strength in the accuracy.

[biggentleben]

 

I don't disagree. However, I would bet more money on Alvarez getting hurt before he ever reaches the majors, than I would on him reaching all of his potential. His pitching profile (and where he currently is at in his development) is the biggest type of injury risk there is in baseball, and that is the reason a lot of other lists don't currently have him near the top 25.

 

There's not a lot of offseason ones out yet. A lot of guys I talked with around the game said he was the top guy in the Dodgers system, over De Leon and over Bellinger.

[HitInAPinch]

 

19 in AAA sure implies he could be pretty good.  He put up an .800+ OPS in AA though as a 19 year old before his promotion.  Yeah, not tons of power as it was mostly OBP, but at that age, it's still quite possible it develops.  Not sure the projections on him, but 10-20 as a major leaguer wouldn't be out of the question. I would think.  He wouldn't have an A- if that wasn't a real possibility.

 

I don't think the Braves would get much attention unless Kolby Allard was included.  A package around Allard and Sean Newcomb would have my attention.  Only real problem is that Newcomb will be starting in AAA and Allard in A+.  Not really ML ready now type guys.  I don't see a whole lot of major league ready arms in their system.  But they have more than enough guys to get it done. Not many teams can say they have 20 guys B- and above on John's scale.

Any pitcher that the Twins acquire don't need to be ready this year.  There's more work to be done.  A year or two would be perfect, IMO.

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Why would Kinsler not be a good fit for the Dodgers??? They need another right handed bat for their lineup. The only sticking point would the length of an extension. So for a team the spends money like a drunken sailor on leave it would not stop LA if they wanted to make a deal.

Kinsler is actually a better fit.  Hits RH, plays GG quality defense, a more prototypical leadoff guy than Dozier.  However, he is older and reportedly wants an extension.  Of course the second year of his remaining years is a club option that the Dodgers could offer to guarantee and maybe add one more year.

[jimmer]

 

There's not a lot of offseason ones out yet. A lot of guys I talked with around the game said he was the top guy in the Dodgers system, over De Leon and over Bellinger.

Yeah, he and Bellinger are the top 2.  I'd probably put Bellinger slightly ahead because he's a stud offensively AND defensively, is ready for the majors, and he seems to have a much higher floor while still having a very high ceiling.

 

Alvarez has potential ace stuff and if we could get him, that'd be awesome.  We need to stop being so risk adverse.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

So are you saying there is absolutely no way to acquire pitching, ever, outside of a Dozier trade? The turnaround is going to take time. Adding De Leon this season, along with 3 high picks in the draft, and another full season and offseason getting the front office in place, all the while letting your prospects grow and mature and develop, 2018 and 2019 is when the results of upgrading the rotation will take place.

 

Brock Stewart. I like him. I'd LOVE it if the Twins got him. I think he is going to be a good major league starter. I don't think the Twins are lost if they don't get him, and will have to give up for the next 3 seasons if they don't acquire him in a trade. The big deal with trading Dozier is acquiring talent and potential. If they get Calhoun, they are getting an asset and a position player who can hit. He doesn't help the pitching, but they can always trade other prospects/players/assets and acquire pitching over the next 1-3 years to at some point get to a quality rotation.

No, Dozier is not the ONLY way the Twins can get quality starting pitching – but I believe his trade is the BEST way. I don't disagree that Calhoun is a good prospect – but it's kind of like going into the grocery store to get milk and walking out with a pound of bananas and no milk. The Twins need starting pitching, preferably 2 MLB-ready starting pitchers. The rotation is a mess. Adding a position player beyond that is fine; adding one as one of two prospects is not fine.

 

I'm not willing (and I bet the top Twins' brass agrees) to wait 1-3 years to get a quality rotation.  The new brass wasn't brought in to help the Twins win starting in 2020. They need the quality starting pitching NOW.  That will help not only now, but in the near future.

 

The bottom line: If the Twins go into spring training without Dozier, they should have two starting pitchers (from wherever they traded Dozier to) to plug into the rotation list. I'm not saying they have to have two in the 5-man rotation - but every team needs depth at starting pitching, The Twins don't have it. If other teams don't pony up and give two near-MLB-ready starters plus one or two prospects for Dozier then I'd rather have Dozier back. It's that simple.

[drjim]

Sickels went De Leon, Bellinger, Alvarez. Thought he was a little high on JDL and surprised he was ahead of Bellinger, but not surprised he's ahead of Alvarez. I would personally much prefer JDL to Alvarez, possibly Buehler over Alvarez too.

[jimmer]

 

Sickels went De Leon, Bellinger, Alvarez. Thought he was a little high on JDL and surprised he was ahead of Bellinger, but not surprised he's ahead of Alvarez. I would personally much prefer JDL to Alvarez, possibly Buehler over Alvarez too.

I have Beuhler 3rd with De Leon 4th.  I expect really good things from Buehler.

[laloesch]

 

I've tried not to be critical of Dozier.  I think he's a good player and an upgrade.  I just don't think he's a top 3 player like some have asserted.  I would offer JDL(future #2 or #3), choice of De Jong or Oaks(#4 or #5), Sheffield( wildcard from a #2 to bullpen), and Edwin Rios.  If the Twins can't get better than that from the Braves they should take it.

 

Bit of stretch calling JDL a future #2 or #3.  The guy can't stay healthy.  He's only logged more than 100 innings ONCE in his minor league career.  De Jong is at best a #5, but more likely a RP.  Sheffield is more valuable than De Jong.