Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[TyTY23]

 

Sickles ranked him 11 in 2016 in LAs system with a B- rating.  That's pretty similar to Stewart right now (ranked 10th with the same grade). By your definition, Stewart is the throw away prospect.  You're right, guys like that have value (and I've made it clear I'd be happy with Stewart as one of the pieces back).  But as you put it, he's a throw away prospect, and there's a reason for it. The risk is quite a bit higher, and usually guys like that need time adjusting to the show... usually more time than guys like Berrios and De Leon will (hopefully) need.

 

The Twins can give them the time in 2017.  It's the lopsided risk that they are absorbing in this situation that makes a package of De Leon + Stewart weak.  More is needed.

By more, how much more; one C level prospect hitter/pitcher, or B level prospect?

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

This post just simply isn't true. Kershaw was able to pitch 180 innings his age 20 season. To be 24 and still around 100 innings is concerning. Hell even kershaw's age 19 season he threw over 10% more than deleons most with over 120 innings, At age 19 you are really building them up for their first full season so that isn't an atypical number. To be 24 and not even close to the standard 140 and have shoulder soreness is a major RED FLAG. JMHO

Are we really comparing people to Kershaw?  The analysis given was dead on.  Since Freidman and Co. have arrived they baby the pitchers when it comes to innings but will push the level of competition quickly if they feel he's ready.  

[Oxtung]

 

All true, but jorgen's point is valuable for how we evaluate the deal in the aftermath.  Getting Deleon alone is probably a coup value-wise, everything else is gravy.

 

But we should be looking for extra helpings of gravy too.

This sounds like you're saying that the Twins would be lucky to just get De Leon straight up for Dozier. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding?

 

If that is the case can you explain your thinking?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

All true, but jorgen's point is valuable for how we evaluate the deal in the aftermath.  Getting Deleon alone is probably a coup value-wise, everything else is gravy.

 

But we should be looking for extra helpings of gravy too.

Fair enough.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This sounds like you're saying that the Twins would be lucky to just get De Leon straight up for Dozier. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding?

 

If that is the case can you explain your thinking?

I believe he's saying that, value-wise, De Leon straight-up is likely to give the Twins more actual on-field value.

 

But I don't believe he's advocating a straight-up deal for the players.

 

Let's say De Leon misses the mark and turns into a #4 starter for six years. He'd accumulate something around 14-15 WAR during that time, which would be enormously valuable to the Twins because they're currently throwing negative WAR players into the rotation.

 

On the other hand, Dozier is likely to supply 8-10 WAR while the Twins aren't in contention.

 

In that scenario, De Leon provides more value to the Twins than Dozier would have.

 

To the Dodgers, that scenario would play out in the exact opposite direction. They could use Dozier's 8-10 WAR but have little need for De Leon's 14-15 WAR.

[Oxtung]

 

That's why I said "recently". Also, in the years you mentioned we were being run by penny pincher McCourt, yes the same guy MLB basically ran out. 

 

Seager, Bellinger, JDL, Verdugo, Stewart, Stewart, Buehler, Calhoun, Stripling, and Sheffield have all been drafted, money had nothing to do them being selected. 

 

Good thing for the Dodgers many recent top prospect list have evaluated and ranked JDL as an elite prospect. Maybe that's the reason he is the centerpiece is the reported proposal for Dozier. 

 

Can you provide links to the lists claiming JDL is an elite prospect? My impression is that "elite" means top 5-10 players in the minor leagues. I have not seen a single source even suggesting that for De Leon. In fact some of the recent analysis (fangraphs for instance) suggest he might be a mid rotation starter.

[Oxtung]

 

TyTy is right. Even throw away prospects like Jharel Cotton (used in the Rich Hill/Reddick trade) pitched 40ish innings like a mid rotation arm for Oakland in the bigs. Cotton, who had certain s of his own as a prospect, would probably be the Twins 3rd best SP behind Santana and maybe Berrios.

The current state of the Twins rotation has nothing to do with Brian Dozier's trade value.

[CiabanItReal]

 

Much better than a couple arms with major flags that might end up in the bullpen even if they turn out. We will get a better return mid season when those guys are practically 26 and 25 respectively, no legitimate major league experience, and still throwing under 110 innings a year or have their shoulders flare up again all while our player is posting a 4.5+ WAR in the majors. Even if we hold on to him at the break, that's valuable to have on this squad for 2 years to help show the young guns how a veteran star prepares, and get a draft pick when he leaves.

Why say practically 26 & 25 why not just call them 26 & 25 I don't see why you need to include "practically" in there. It's kind of wierd, just call DeLeon 25 if he's 25.

 

Wait? Their shoulders flair up like plural? Like Both left and Right shoulder? Or Both of them have shoulder problems? Because DeLeon has only had a sore shoulder once in his career and then proceeded to throw 100 innings without any problem, and is Brock Stewart's shoulder flaring up again, because he hasn't had shoulder problems ever in his career.

 

Still throwing 110 innings a year? So is this the point that we just ignore that Stewart threw nearly 150 innings last year?

Yeah, but this team isn't getting a first round pick back, and even if the most conservative projections are wrong and they wind up relievers, that's still potentially more valuable than a late 2nd round pick. look what the Royals and Indians did with lock down bull pens, and that's assuming neither one makes it as a starter, which only your projecting at this point.

[drjim]

Can you provide links to the lists claiming JDL is an elite prospect? My impression is that "elite" means top 5-10 players in the minor leagues. I have not seen a single source even suggesting that for De Leon. In fact some of the recent analysis (fangraphs for instance) suggest he might be a mid rotation starter.

Someone else will have a link, but Sickels just graded him a A/A- which will put him as a back half of top 10 pitching prospect in baseball.

 

Seems a little too high for me personally, but not *that* off. And Sickels thinks he'll be a 2 or really strong 3.

[drjim]

If De Leon becomes a legit 2 and stays healthy, that is easily a fair trade. But there has to be more coming to the Twins to mitigate the obvious (if occasionally overstated) risk of De Leon relative to Dozier.

[Oxtung]

 

I believe he's saying that, value-wise, De Leon straight-up is likely to give the Twins more actual on-field value.

 

But I don't believe he's advocating a straight-up deal for the players.

 

Let's say De Leon misses the mark and turns into a #4 starter for six years. He'd accumulate something around 14-15 WAR during that time, which would be enormously valuable to the Twins because they're currently throwing negative WAR players into the rotation.

 

On the other hand, Dozier is likely to supply 8-10 WAR while the Twins aren't in contention.

 

In that scenario, De Leon provides more value to the Twins than Dozier would have.

 

To the Dodgers, that scenario would play out in the exact opposite direction. They could use Dozier's 8-10 WAR but have little need for De Leon's 14-15 WAR.

I would argue that De Leon's 14-15 WAR isn't particularly helpful to the Twins either. Back of the rotation starters can be found either from our own prospect ranks or also easily from FA. Mike Pelfrey gave us 2 WAR/Year (except the year he blew his arm out but that could just as easily happen to a prospect). In this situation I think Dozier still provides greater value.

[CiabanItReal]

 

That's not how it works.

This.

Brock, part of that post is responding to the idea that Dozier is on a trajectory to, I don't know, improve even more?  Continue to be a 6 WAR player?

 

A 4ish WAR player is a really good player, but there is too much talk that suggests he can maintain a 6 WAR pace.  Maybe he can, but his history and age suggest otherwise.  The real outlier would be a repeat of 2016, not settling back in as a very good 4 WAR player.

That wasn't just part of it, it was the crux of it, that Dozier has been overall a good player in his career, streaky, but more good than bad. But that nothing in his career suggests what he did last year was either, sustainable, the new norm, or the bottom level production of whats to come.

[jimmer]

Never been much of a fan of Sickels, but a lot seem to be. Sickels, in late Sept of 2016, had Alvarez as the 18th ranked prospect in baseball (ranked 117th before 2016 season).  Some of the guys ranked ahead of him (Benintendi, Swanson) are no longer prospects.  They are in the majors for good already.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/24/12932956/top-100-prospects-end-of-2016

 

So De Leon (5th) and Alvarez both sit in the top 20 for Sickels.  Two years of Dozier for 12 years combined of them.  Yes please.  Too much?  Likely.  Those two PLUS another? Way too much? Likely.

 

BTW, our top guy, according to Sickels, is Gordon as the 40th best prospect.

 

 

[CiabanItReal]

 

Someone else will have a link, but Sickels just graded him a A/A- which will put him as a back half of top 10 pitching prospect in baseball.

Seems a little too high for me personally, but not *that* off. And Sickels thinks he'll be a 2 or really strong 3.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/1/6/14193446/los-angeles-dodgers-top-20-prospects-for-2017?_ga=1.95452447.285000460.1482816126

Though personally I thought Sickels was a little high on Ruiz, and a little to low on Stewart, but thats just me.

Sickles rated him higher than Bellinger.

[Oxtung]

 

Someone else will have a link, but Sickels just graded him a A/A- which will put him as a back half of top 10 pitching prospect in baseball.

Seems a little too high for me personally, but not *that* off. And Sickels thinks he'll be a 2 or really strong 3.

To me a top 10 pitching prospect still isn't elite though. MLB currently has Tyler Jay a top 10 pitching prospect too and I certainly wouldn't consider him elite. This could just be a semantics about the word elite.

 

I guess my larger point is a top 10 prospect overall (regardless of position) has significantly more value because they turn out at a much higher rate and I thought that is what TyTY23 was implying.

[doscinco]

The current state of the Twins rotation has nothing to do with Brian Dozier's trade value.

Cotton is young and cheap, so hypothetically speaking, we are talking about future Twins rotations

[Oxtung]

 

Are we really comparing people to Kershaw?  The analysis given was dead on.  Since Freidman and Co. have arrived they baby the pitchers when it comes to innings but will push the level of competition quickly if they feel he's ready.  

Babying arms might be an organizational philosophy but it does mean the Twins have no idea if De Leon will be able to handle a starters workload over the course of a full season. There are plenty of pitchers not able to hold up to the rigors of pitching 200 innings. This has to be factored in.  Additionally there are legitimate concerns about what a "sore shoulder" means going forward. These things can't just be glossed over; they do have an impact on the trade return.

[Oxtung]

 

Cotton is young and cheap so we are talking about future Twins rotations

Again, which have nothing to do with Dozier's trade value.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I would argue that De Leon's 14-15 WAR isn't particularly helpful to the Twins either. Back of the rotation starters can be found either from our own prospect ranks or also easily from FA. Mike Pelfrey gave us 2 WAR/Year (except the year he blew his arm out but that could just as easily happen to a prospect). In this situation I think Dozier still provides greater value.

That could happen to literally anyone though.

[TheLeviathan]

 

This sounds like you're saying that the Twins would be lucky to just get De Leon straight up for Dozier. Perhaps I'm misunderstanding?

 

If that is the case can you explain your thinking?

 

If DeLeon is a solid major league starter he'll more than return the value for the organization than retaining Dozier would.  You, and many others, are struggling to put into context how useless Dozier is likely to be for us in terms of competing.  Resigning him would be an almost certain disaster and the pitching doesn't look to be worthy of competing for at least a season if not much longer.  

 

So would I accept it 1:1?  No, there isn't enough to mitigate the risk there if DeLeon implodes, but a couple other solid pieces and I'm sold.  

[drjim]

To me a top 10 pitching prospect still isn't elite though. MLB currently has Tyler Jay a top 10 pitching prospect too and I certainly wouldn't consider him elite. This could just be a semantics about the word elite.

 

I guess my larger point is a top 10 prospect overall (regardless of position) has significantly more value because they turn out at a much higher rate and I thought that is what TyTY23 was implying.

Mlb isn't updated yet. But Jay still is probably a top 10 lhp prospect at the moment (I think mlb breaks down by handedness).

 

De Leon is a good deal better than Jay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I would argue that De Leon's 14-15 WAR isn't particularly helpful to the Twins either. Back of the rotation starters can be found either from our own prospect ranks or also easily from FA. Mike Pelfrey gave us 2 WAR/Year (except the year he blew his arm out but that could just as easily happen to a prospect). In this situation I think Dozier still provides greater value.

Back of the rotation starters aren't that easy to find.

 

If they were, the Twins wouldn't have given hundreds of innings to negative WAR starters each season for the past several seasons.

 

Several negative WAR starters. Every. Single. Year.

 

This is gag-worthy but I just checked to be sure... These are the years where the Twins had at least three pitchers start five games or more and posted a negative bWAR:

 

2012

2013

2014

2016

 

Three pitchers. At least five games started. Every season.

 

Ish.

[nytwinsfan]

 

I would argue that De Leon's 14-15 WAR isn't particularly helpful to the Twins either. Back of the rotation starters can be found either from our own prospect ranks or also easily from FA. Mike Pelfrey gave us 2 WAR/Year (except the year he blew his arm out but that could just as easily happen to a prospect). In this situation I think Dozier still provides greater value.

Depends who you ask. Fangraphs says that, but Baseball Reference WAR has Pelfrey worth positive 0.4 WAR over those three years (-0.3, -0.7, 1.4 in 2013, 2014 and 2015, respectively)

[jorgenswest]

League average pitching from a mid rotation starter is very valuable. The Twins win the deal if they get that starter in a deal for Dozier. Does that mean they should be satisfied with De Leon? Not necessarily. Getting two significant pitchers in that deal increases the likelihood that one will be that league average starter. That might not be a reasonable expectation given the limited market.

[AZTwin]

Are we really comparing people to Kershaw? The analysis given was dead on. Since Freidman and Co. have arrived they baby the pitchers when it comes to innings but will push the level of competition quickly if they feel he's ready.

No I compared him to guys in the twins system and other top 100 prospects. He's averaging 30% less innings. I was rebutting the other guys comparison to kershaw which you admit is ridiculous

[doscinco]

Again, which have nothing to do with Dozier's trade value.

You mean the type of pitchers the Twins should be targeting as a 2nd piece has nothing to do with Dozier's value?

[darin617]

 

If De Leon becomes a legit 2 and stays healthy, that is easily a fair trade. But there has to be more coming to the Twins to mitigate the obvious (if occasionally overstated) risk of De Leon relative to Dozier.

 

Key word is "if". Dozier is an established player with a track record. JDL has pitched 17 innings in the majors. The Twins would have to get at minimum one more player rated in top 15 to be worth the risk.

[USAFChief]

Back of the rotation starters aren't that easy to find.

 

If they were, the Twins wouldn't have given hundreds of innings to negative WAR starters each season for the past several seasons.

 

Several negative WAR starters. Every. Single. Year.

 

This is gag-worthy but I just checked to be sure... These are the years where the Twins had at least three pitchers start five games or more and posted a negative bWAR:

 

2012

2013

2014

2016

 

Three pitchers. At least five games started. Every season.

 

Ish.

Ish indeed.

 

But you don't trade Dozier to get a back of the rotation starter. By definition, below average, but not putrid starters, shouldn't be that hard to acquire.

 

And that's a big reason why Ryan isn't, and shouldn't be, the GM. The record speaks for itself...whatever he was doing wasn't working.

 

But we have new leadership. Hopefully, they can capably fill the end of the rotation ... Without using their best player as trade bait to do so.

 

If the a twins make a trade, and De Leon ends up a decent #4 for 6 years, that's a failed trade. It certainly won't be any primary reason for any success over those years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ish indeed.

 

But you don't trade Dozier to get a back of the rotation starter. By definition, below average, but not putrid starters, shouldn't be that hard to acquire.

 

And that's a big reason why Ryan isn't, and shouldn't be, the GM. The record speaks for itself...whatever he was doing wasn't working.

 

But we have new leadership. Hopefully, they can capably fill the end of the rotation ... Without using their best player as trade bait to do so.

 

If the a twins make a trade, and De Leon ends up a decent #4 for 6 years, that's a failed trade. It certainly won't be any primary reason for any success over those years.

I fully agree that getting only a #4 starter for Dozier would be a failure, I was simply pointing out how De Leon could be more valuable to the Twins while still being mediocre.

[TheLeviathan]

It would be a failure based on reasonable expectation, but it'd still be an overall net gain.

 

We should aim for higher, but I really think some of you underestimate how little good Dozier I'd for us until we get some damn pitching.