Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[jimmer]

 

Yeah like I said in 2014 he was a 4.7 WAr player, he was well on his way to that in 2015 before the injury issues derailed his 2nd half.

Dozier is hitting his peak age for power as well, his ISO has gone up every year. There is no reason why he can't be a 6 War player moving forward. IMo if healthy he will be atleast a 4.8-5.2 War per year player next 2 seasons.

People also never bring up his speed either. 20 SB is nothing to sneeze at.

Ok, this post seems to be going in a couple directions.

 

You've said before he is in his prime and with his consistent ISO increase and HR increase the player we saw this year is who he is (although it makes it sound like he's just going to keep getting better the way you've said it).  In this post you say there is no reason he can't be a 6 WAR player moving forward (I have no idea how far forward, but forward).If that's the case with Dozier, it pretty much makes him a top 10 position player in the majors. As you look around the league, is it your opinion he's one of the best 10 position players in baseball going forward?

 

Then you say he's AT LEAST a 4.8-5.2 WAR guy.  That's something like 20-25th best player.  Do you envision Dozier being a top 20-25 type player going forward?

 

A top 10 player?  A top 25 player? Something else?  He's averaged about 4 WAR over the last 4 years. A 4 WAR player is in the top 40 most of the time (or right about there) Is he in THAT range going forward into his 30s?

[AZTwin]

The one argument I can't stand is that dodges aren't going to include because that's the player they ar high on. Well guess what, twins are very high on Dozier and rightfully so. He is the best player being discussed. Maybe we trade them Eduardo Escobar for Stewart straight up and they can try him at 2B. Just a suggestion

[drivlikejehu]

How Dozier compares to Grandal, Turner, or any other non-2B-playing member of the Dodgers is utterly irrelevant. It's as meaningful as comparing them in terms of hair styles or anything else . . . what if Dozier is a better driver than Kershaw? Well now Dozier is worth De Leon + Alvarez for sure!

 

The only relevant factor is how much Dozier improves the Dodgers, which then has secondary effects that impact: (1) LAD odds of making the playoffs, (2) LAD odds of winning in the playoffs and (3) the resulting financial consequences of those events, or alternatively, the absence of those events.

 

The expected baseball-financial positive value from adding Dozier has to be weighed only against the negative baseball-financial value of the players dealt for him. The relevant factors are the same 3 as above, over a timeline that accounts for the expected distribution (e.g., Alvarez could provide surplus value for 0 years or deep into the 2020s). 

[laloesch]

Hey there. Dodger fan here. Boy, this is the trade rumor that just never ends. So here's my $.02 from a Dodger perspective (and one who is seriously trying to be fair-minded): Dodgers will never do Bellinger or Alvarez in a Dozier trade. I am also very skeptical about Buehler also -- I believe the team is very, very high on him. Anybody else feels like fair game to me. So I would say De Leon, plus somebody like Stewart/Sheffield/Calhoun (or possibly Alex Verdugo, who is also very good and close to the majors, and I'd swallow hard to include him, but hey -- Dozier's a good player!), and maybe one other lesser piece (but with some real upside -- AJ Alexy? -- he just got drafted -- young and a risk, but could be good). If fans from both sides are kind of annoyed, it should be about fair. I'd hate to lose De Leon AND Stewart or Sheffield, but we need to give you talent for talent -- especially proven MLB talent. For me Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buelher are all too good to go in this trade. We'll see what happens.

 the Twins aren't really interested in Bellinger or Verdugo. Pitching is what they are truly after. De Leon has only exceeded 100 innings once in his minor league career dating back to 2013. He has a persistent history of shoulder problems and other health problems. Pretty troubling for a center piece of a trade. On top of that his major league debut couldn't have gone more poorly in 2016, getting clobbered in the first 4 games overall. Alvarez the other rumored piece is only in A ball and yet to exceed 60 innings of minor league experience. Sure the dodgers invested a ton of money to get him to this point but proven next to nothing nor pitched a single inning of major league ball. Hardly a center piece of a deal either. Finally, Brock Stewart. He is probably the most reliable of the before mentioned players having pitched in 7 games last season. Again however he has not excelled by any stretch of the imagination.

 

What is the common denominator in all of this? None of these prospects has proven a dam thing yet. The Twins would be INSANELY CRAZY to trade a 6+ War second baseman who hit 40+ homeruns for just JDL.

[drjim]

Yup. I was speaking generically. De Leon and Stewart are their top two pitching reinforcements for 2017 so I can understand the reluctance. If that's the case, it seems odd that no one in the media mentions Stewart specifically, though -- Alvarez, Buehler, and Bellinger get many specific mentions. Berardino reported the Twins interest in Stewart a while ago, but there's really been no mention of him since.

 

And if they are reluctant to send Stewart away at the same time as De Leon, I wonder what guys they are willing to include. Verdugo, Calhoun, Sheffield, others? If they still had those 3 guys they gave up for Hill and Reddick, perhaps the deal would be done already.

To me, one of Calhoun/Verdugo/Sheffield is not strong enough for a second piece.

 

I would maybe consider De Leon and all 3. But I think it is hard to do a trade without one of Stewart, Alvarez, or Buehler in addition to De Leon.

[jimmer]

Oh, I think it's fair to say the Twins would LOVE to have Bellinger.  Yes, they need pitching, but if the Twins were offered Bellinger instead of DeLeon, Stewart or Buehler, I would like to believe they'd be smart enough to take Bellinger (which, BTW, is a player that wouldn't be offered, so it's hypothetical)

[drjim]

Proposterous. First of all, the Twins aren't really interested in Bellinger or Verdugo. Pitching is what they are after. De Leon has only exceeded 100 innings once in his minor league career dating back to 2013. He has persistent history of shoulder problems. On top of hat he had a horrible major league debut in 2016, getting clobbered in his first 4 games overall. Alvarez is only A ball and has yet to exceed 60 innings of minor league experience. Yet he is being hyped as the next top rospect even though he has proven nothing yet nor pitched a single inning of major league ball. Brock Stewart has pitched 7 games in the majors and not exactly excelled by any stretch of the imagination.

 

What is the common denominator in all of this? None of these prospects has proven a dam thing yet. The Twins would be INSANELY CRAZY to trade a 6+ War second baseman who hit 40+ homeruns for just JDL.

The Twins would take Bellinger in a second.

[laloesch]

The Twins would take Bellinger in a second.

Yes, but it's not what they are looking for.

[CiabanItReal]

 

I hate spelling nazis and I have been really patient but it's spelled "does". Sorry just couldn't take it anymore

"Does" has been a problem I've had my entire life, thank you for being this patient, I have no idea why I struggle with that word so much specifically, but I do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The one argument I can't stand is that dodges aren't going to include because that's the player they ar high on. Well guess what, twins are very high on Dozier and rightfully so. He is the best player being discussed. Maybe we trade them Eduardo Escobar for Stewart straight up and they can try him at 2B. Just a suggestion

Think of it as less of an argument, and more of an explanation. Nothing has happened on this trade front, and we are seeking to explain why. Figuring their prospect valuations seems a better explanation than "the Dodgers are stupid".

 

And don't worry, the Dodgers can't force the Twins to accept a subpar offer, so there is really no reason to get upset with them.

[drjim]

Yes, but it's not what they are looking for.

Would prefer pitching, but they'll take talent.

[AZTwin]

Think of it as less of an argument, and more of an explanation. Nothing has happened on this trade front, and we are seeking to explain why. Figuring their prospect valuations seems a better explanation than "the Dodgers are stupid".

 

And don't worry, the Dodgers can't force the Twins to accept a subpar offer, so there is really no reason to get upset with them.

Agreed but it's just a frustrating position to take (though I understand it). If that's really the position, and they prefer not to budge, I'd rather not have had the discussions this long for my own sanity haha

[TheLeviathan]

If you think Brian Dozier is a consistent 6 WAR player going forward I have a bridge I'd like to talk to you about.  

 

And a host of other scams because holy cow.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

To me, one of Calhoun/Verdugo/Sheffield is not strong enough for a second piece.

 

I would maybe consider De Leon and all 3. But I think it is hard to do a trade without one of Stewart, Alvarez, or Buehler in addition to De Leon.

FWIW, Fangraphs has Verdugo at 55 FV, same as De Leon and a step above Buehler (50).

[drjim]

FWIW, Fangraphs has Verdugo at 55 FV, same as De Leon and a step above Buehler (50).

I admit I might be light on Verdugo, haven't dug into him as much. I probably overstated that.

 

Sickels Dodgers list comes out tomorrow.

[DaveW]

Pitch framing is the most over rated thing in all of sports.

[nicksaviking]

So it appears the Dodgers may value Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez and Buehler to the point they deem them untouchable. Four seems like a lot, but hey, that's their perogatuve I guess.

 

If all reports are accurate, De Leon is not untouchable and Stewart possibly not as well. But the rub is that the Dodgers don't want to give up both as they can contribute right now. So that basically makes for five untouchable guys which frankly doesn't sound very reasonable. I get the pain that comes with giving up prospects, but it looks to me like the Dodgers have to decide if they more value upside later or production now. If they can't decide, it's time for them to walk away and sit on their hands.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Isn't it the Twins that have to walk away? It seems like they are the ones that have dragged this out. I kinda doubt that the Dodgers would be continually bringing it up if their offer hasn't materially changed.

[nicksaviking]

Isn't it the Twins that have to walk away? It seems like they are the ones that have dragged this out. I kinda doubt that the Dodgers would be continually bringing it up if their offer hasn't materially changed.

I assume the Twins also have an offer, I'm not sure why the Twins have to be the ones to blink.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I assume the Twins also have an offer, I'm not sure why the Twins have to be the ones to blink.

The Twins are the ones who have kept Dozier on the market, it is sort of up to them to pull him back if they aren't getting what they want. Or do you expect the Dodgers to completely retract their offer while the Twins are still publicly shopping him to the Cardinals, etc.?

 

I think it helps to not consider their discussions so far as offers. I think Dave's source is the only one so far who has really suggested they got very far in talks. It is more likely that they talked, the Dodgers told them what they are comfortable giving up right now, and the Twins told them what it would take to move him, and that was it. The Twins have tried to dialogue with other clubs too, without much success.

 

I don't think the Dodgers were expecting the Twins to deal him for De Leon right now, but they've figured out his price for future reference. The Dodgers still have the pieces to easily meet the Twins demands in July if they want -- by then, they will know better if their staff can withstand the losses of both De Leon and Stewart, or if Alvarez and Buehler are ready to convert their potential into big value gains.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The Dodgers are a carefully run organization (IMHO). Bellinger is off the table because he fills a soon-to-be need and does it inexpensively.

 

I would like the Twins to get two pitchers (plus a position prospect) in this trade, but I do not believe that asking for two MLB ready pitchers is realistic. The Dodgers are not going to want to lose too much depth, especially coming off a year where the injury genie hung out all season on their front porch.

 

That said, the Twins need to get real value for Dozier. I am starting to believe we will not get the players we want. We will, however, be watching Dozier have what I expect to be a very good year.

 

It's not the best outcome for a rebuilding team, but you cannot give away a player who is that good unless you get a reasonable return.

[AZTwin]

After these threads I'm actually more excited for Doziers year. Hard to appreciate what you have until you examine other teams "prized" possessions only to realize they are kind of lemons with more warts. He's going to have a huge first half and likely to be on the block again. Something else tells me Deleon and Stewart won't be as advertised by then. Old prospects that are 6 months older, still in minors, and not proving they can make it in the big leagues. Think our dodger offer increases significantly by the break and centered around Alvarez and Lux, with Deleon thrown in as a 3rd piece and a lottery ticket 4th guy

[jimmer]

 

If you use Baseball Prospectus (which includes framing), Grandal was a 6.8 WAR player last year.

And our great signing, Castro, was 2.5 WAR with Baseball Prospectus taking into account framing :-)

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Proposterous. First of all, the Twins aren't really interested in Bellinger or Verdugo. Pitching is what they are truly after. De Leon has only exceeded 100 innings once in his minor league career dating back to 2013. He has a persistent history of shoulder problems and other health problems. Pretty troubling for a center piece of a trade. On top of that his major league debut couldn't have gone more poorly in 2016, getting clobbered in the first 4 games overall. Alvarez the other rumored piece is only in A ball and yet to exceed 60 innings of minor league experience. Sure the dodgers invested a ton of money to get him to this point but proven next to nothing nor pitched a single inning of major league ball. Hardly a center piece of a deal either. Finally, Brock Stewart. He is probably the most reliable of the before mentioned players having pitched in 7 games last season. Again however he has not excelled by any stretch of the imagination.

What is the common denominator in all of this? None of these prospects has proven a dam thing yet. The Twins would be INSANELY CRAZY to trade a 6+ War second baseman who hit 40+ homeruns for just JDL.

When did Deleon's sore shoulder last season after pitching after a layoff for his ankle become a persistent history of shoulder problems?  I'm not suggesting a one for one trade, but this injury history has become greatly exaggerated  .  

[HawkeyeDodger]

 

Pitch framing is the most over rated thing in all of sports.

Possibly.  A lot of defensive metrics are questionable in my book.  I remember when the Dodgers traded Dee Gordon who was supposed to be a bad defender by metrics while Howie Kendrick was an upgrade.  A year later Gordon is a GG winner and the Dodgers don't want Kendrick anywhere near 2nd base.  I will say this about pitch framing.  It isn't all about the strikes you gain on balls, but it is just as much about strikes that don't become balls.  After watching Grandal and AJ Ellis.  Ellis costs the Dodgers pitchers a lot of strikes.

[drivlikejehu]

 

When did Deleon's sore shoulder last season after pitching after a layoff for his ankle become a persistent history of shoulder problems?  I'm not suggesting a one for one trade, but this injury history has become greatly exaggerated  .  

 

The OP was wrong to say persistent, but it's an entirely legitimate concern. Very, very often some "soreness" turns out later to be a structural issue that either leads to a serious injury or pushes a guy to the bullpen. Unlike elbow issues, shoulder injuries are basically career ending for most guys.

 

The fact that Friedman has historically held onto his top prospects makes me even more concerned, because a standard medical exam can't match the Dodgers' history with De Leon as a member of their organization . . . the game theory is just all kinds of wrong for the Twins here.

 

I'm not sold on De Leon anyway, based on his average velocity and inconsistent command. I don't think he needs to be part of a Dozier deal and hope the Twins are flexible on that . . . if the Dodgers think he's so great, fine, keep him. And if everybody else with talent is off limits too, then clearly the teams have no room to make a deal. 

[TyTY23]

 

The OP was wrong to say persistent, but it's an entirely legitimate concern. Very, very often some "soreness" turns out later to be a structural issue that either leads to a serious injury or pushes a guy to the bullpen. Unlike elbow issues, shoulder injuries are basically career ending for most guys.

 

The fact that Friedman has historically held onto his top prospects makes me even more concerned, because a standard medical exam can't match the Dodgers' history with De Leon as a member of their organization . . . the game theory is just all kinds of wrong for the Twins here.

 

I'm not sold on De Leon anyway, based on his average velocity and inconsistent command. I don't think he needs to be part of a Dozier deal and hope the Twins are flexible on that . . . if the Dodgers think he's so great, fine, keep him. And if everybody else with talent is off limits too, then clearly the teams have no room to make a deal. 

I think you need to look at little closer. JDL had some of the best k/bb ratio. Also, I thought command, control, lack of secondary pitches, or inability to hold velocity for multiple innings was the result of moving a pitcher to the BP, not shoulder soreness. The Dodgers are also very conservative and cautious of pitchers' injuries, even the most acute of injuries. JDL came back from his shoulder soreness throwing just has hard. 

[CiabanItReal]

 

The OP was wrong to say persistent, but it's an entirely legitimate concern. Very, very often some "soreness" turns out later to be a structural issue that either leads to a serious injury or pushes a guy to the bullpen. Unlike elbow issues, shoulder injuries are basically career ending for most guys.

 

The fact that Friedman has historically held onto his top prospects makes me even more concerned, because a standard medical exam can't match the Dodgers' history with De Leon as a member of their organization . . . the game theory is just all kinds of wrong for the Twins here.

 

I'm not sold on De Leon anyway, based on his average velocity and inconsistent command. I don't think he needs to be part of a Dozier deal and hope the Twins are flexible on that . . . if the Dodgers think he's so great, fine, keep him. And if everybody else with talent is off limits too, then clearly the teams have no room to make a deal. 

Yeah, but then he came back and threw over 100 innings combined between AAA and the Pro's.

Possibly.  A lot of defensive metrics are questionable in my book.  I remember when the Dodgers traded Dee Gordon who was supposed to be a bad defender by metrics while Howie Kendrick was an upgrade.  A year later Gordon is a GG winner and the Dodgers don't want Kendrick anywhere near 2nd base.  I will say this about pitch framing.  It isn't all about the strikes you gain on balls, but it is just as much about strikes that don't become balls.  After watching Grandal and AJ Ellis.  Ellis costs the Dodgers pitchers a lot of strikes.

I don't think that's much of an indictment on defensive metrics, Gordon was one of the worst defensive SS in baseball when the dodgers played him there, the off season before his first all-star appearance, he spent that whole winter practicing the OF in hopes of making it on as a utility player, and was thrust into the role of 2nd base. In fact, most of the advanced metrics had him as one of the best 2nd basemen when it came to making the impossible plays, he just rated poorly on the routine plays, which makes sense since he didn't have a lot of experience at 2nd. After getting traded he spent all his time working at 2nd, and got great at making the routine plays. 

Kendrick on the other hand always rated as a good not great defender, then he got old, and his skills got worse, it's not the metrics fault, for that, they just showed what the dodgers scouts were also seeing.

[TyTY23]

Here's how Eno Sarris from Fangraphs sees Stewart:
Brock Stewart recently improved his fastball velocity, sits above 93 now with an elite spin rate, and has this plus-plus slider. His changeup has a 13 mph velocity gap. Can’t wait for people to know more about Brock Stewart.

And this is what Keith Law of ESPN had to say about one of the proposed trade of JDL and Stewart for Dozier:

Mike: Seems like the holdup on the Twins trading Dozier to the Dodgers is the isistance on getting 2 MLB-ready prospects from the Dodgers. Are the Dodgers being unreasonable by trying to hold on to both DeLeon and Stewart?
Klaw: I don’t think that’s an unfair ask for the Twins, but that would severely cut into the Dodgers’ starting pitching depth, and I think the result would reduce the Dodgers’ potential gains from adding Dozier.

[AZTwin]

Sounds like the dodgers just don't have the depth to make a trade like this. If 5 guys are off limits because of depth concerns then I can't see it happen. They just can't match what we have to offer. Oh well