What does your *perfect* Brian Dozier trade look like?

[Brandon Warne]

 

Chris sale is 6 months older than Trevor May.  Does May have his place in a rebuilding team?

 

That depends. Do I have to trade a bunch of other stuff for Trevor May?

[Brandon Warne]

Today on Midwest Swing, Dustin Nosler said he'd do something like Puig, De Leon and Lux. 

 

I'd do that in a New York Minute.....which is seven seconds. 

[DaveW]

Santana and Dozier for Kershaw, Kemp, Loney and billingsley

[Linus]

Dozier for Urias. We throw in another prospect if we have to. I want quality over quantity.

[Loosey]

Mine is a team chocked full of elite pitching prospects and a GM and Owner that are alcoholics that like to wheel and deal.

 

But in all honesty it is the first part.  A team with pitching and needs a 2B to get them over the hump.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Santana and Dozier for Kershaw, Kemp, Loney and billingsley

 

Clarify that you mean Johan, not Ervin. Throw in Danny though for good measure.

 

 

[blairpaul715]

For me the perfect trade for me would be Dozier  and E Santana to the Braves for Albies, Foltynewicz, Wisler and Touissant. Or Dozier for Foltynewicz and Albies.

[d-mac]

 

While looking over the Phillies lists, I notice that in 2013/2014, both the Twins and the Phillies drafted a SS and a RHP with their first rounders. The Twins picked earlier each time (#4, #5 vs #16 and #7).

One pair of picks is not like the other:

A ) JP Crawford, Aaron Nola
B ) Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon

 

I think that's all you need to know about Twins' talent evaluation. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

Dozier for Urias. We throw in another prospect if we have to. I want quality over quantity.

 

Urias isn't on the table. 

[Vanimal46]

Dozier + Stewart to the Pirates for SP Jameson Taillon and potentially another prospect.

[Brandon Warne]

 

For me the perfect trade for me would be Dozier  and E Santana to the Braves for Albies, Foltynewicz, Wisler and Touissant. Or Dozier for Foltynewicz and Albies.

 

Seems fairly sane.

[Thrylos]

 

My top target would be Glasnow of the Pirates. Then I'd try to work in Josh Harrison and Elias Diaz coming back to the Twins as part of a bigger deal too.

 

They've soured on Harrison but he's still a much better version of Danny Santana. Diaz is a rising catcher prospect.

 

I'dd add pretty much any prospects not named Gonsalves, Jay, Gordon, Kirilloff, and Romero on the Twins side to make that happen.

 

Pirates are in a rebuilding mode... might be able to entice them trading young players for young players, but that's about it

[diehardtwinsfan]

Hmm... my perfect trade would be Dozier for Alvarez, De Leon, Urias, Bellinger, and a few others thrown in... but since the Dodgers will laugh at me...

 

I'll settle for De Leon, Alvarez, and another prospect... or maybe Puig in that spot.

[Monkeypaws]

Until the Twins minor league cupboard is overflowing with top talent, Dozier + deals are a no-go for me. 

 

Keep the talent bubbling up from the minors, and buy the rest. When you have top talent in the minors that is expendible/blocked, then you can start dangling prospects.

 

#1 overall plus a nice haul for Dozier sounds like the best way forward to me at this point.

[Pardon My Dinger]

Urias isn't on the table.

In my *perfect* opinion, he very much is.

[Mike Sixel]

Dozier, ESAN and any AA pitcher not named Gonsalves.

 

Alvarez, De Leon, Bellinger

 

That is an insane return if Alvarez pans out, but he's high risk. It factors in De Leon as more of a 3/4 than a 2/3....if people think De Leon is a legit 2, then you cant get both him and Alvarez I don't think.

 

The Twins get legit SP prospects, and their 1B/DH (RF?) for the next 6 years in exchange for a SP and 2B that won't be here in 1 or 2 years, and a AA SP prospect not as good as either guy they get back.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure the Dodgers would want ESAN...

[Linus]

Urias isn't on the table.

Not if we don't ask. I know that's been reported but we don't know any of these things for sure.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not if we don't ask. I know that's been reported but we don't know any of these things for sure.

By this logic, I guess we also don't know for certain that the Angels wouldn't be willing to entertain Dozier for Trout.

 

I trust that our new GM has already figured this out. Otherwise, if there was even the slightest indication that Urias might be available in a Dozier trade, Falvey would have already failed by letting the Dodgers get off the phone without getting that deal done somehow.

[ScottyB]

My perfect trade?  Dozier to the Nationals for Scherzer, Giolito, and Harper.  That sounds realistic, doesn't it?  I'd throw in Berrios for Strasburg and Trea Turner.

 

Of course in my world the sky is orange.

[jimmer]

 

My perfect trade?  Dozier to the Nationals for Scherzer, Giolito, and Harper.  That sounds realistic, doesn't it?  I'd throw in Berrios for Strasburg and Trea Turner.

Danny Santana for Trout and a prospect?

[gunnarthor]

 

While looking over the Phillies lists, I notice that in 2013/2014, both the Twins and the Phillies drafted a SS and a RHP with their first rounders. The Twins picked earlier each time (#4, #5 vs #16 and #7).

One pair of picks is not like the other:

A ) JP Crawford, Aaron Nola
B ) Kohl Stewart, Nick Gordon

Well, true.  Crawford would go much higher in a redraft now but was never considered a top 5 talent - although he had some helium, IIRC.  At the same time, Stewart isn't a bust yet.

 

I'd still take Gordon over Nola.  Nola was exactly the kind of pitcher posters here were against.  Most wanted Alex Jackson or Gordon over Nola who was often compared to Wimmers. Nola was considered a fast to the majors pitcher but considered more of a #3 than a top of the rotation guy with injury risk because of his mechanics.  And, so far, that was more or less right - in the majors at 22.  33 starts, 188ip, 94 ERA+, 1.8 WAR but with much more strike outs than expected.  And he finished the year on the 60 day DL with UCL and flexor problems.

[jimmer]

So the prospects guy on Fangraphs had his chat today.  He was asked if DeLeon was a top 15 guy, he obviously said no. Then he was asked if Bellinger was top 20 he said yes.  Now, he wasn't asked about Alvarez in the chat, but in his top Dodgers prospect list he put out last month, he had Alvarez 1 and Bellinger 2.

 

Something to think about when ideas of Bellinger and Alvarez (plus whomever) is being floated about for two years of Dozier :-)

[Richie the Rally Goat]

If the dodgers are looking for equal parts improvement and salary relief, could Urias and Puig be had for Dozier and maybe one of Rosario, Kepler or Palka?

[Otto von Ballpark]

If the dodgers are looking for equal parts improvement and salary relief, could Urias and Puig be had for Dozier and maybe one of Rosario, Kepler or Palka?

No.

 

The Dodgers financial thing is way overblown, but seriously, if they really needed to save money, they would have passed on re-signing Rich Hill, and they sure as heck wouldn't be dealing Urias who might have the best projected production-to-salary ratio in all of MLB over the next few years.

[DocBauer]

Ideal trade?

 

Dozier for Urias and one of Alvarez, Sheffield, etc. (We'very all read the names) Personally, I don't think that's an unfair trade by any stretch.

 

More realistic trade?

 

Dozier for De Leon, another of the top young Dodger SP already named and maybe Van Slyke as a throw in to give the Twins a quality RH hitting 4th OF.

 

Too little you think? Then add a second SP from the Dodgers to make it a 4 for 2 deal and the Twins also include one of our top RP or a AA SP. Dodgers get Dozier and a solid pitching prospect, we get a top young arms, two lower level arms with nice upside, and a veteran 4th OF to make the roster and OF better and more balanced.

[twins_89]

Based on the surplus value concept Dozier would have a value of around $60M if he has average years for the next two seasons (based on his WAR performance the last 3 seasons). If Dozier was able to sustain something similar to last years performance his surplus value would increase to around $80M. So his trade value should be in the $60-80M range.

 

The expected surplus value of prospects (http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/) gives an idea of what a fair return would involve. A fair return for Dozier would be a pitcher ranked in the top #11-25 and a pitcher ranked #26-50 (based on baseball america rankings).

 

In terms of Dodgers prospects that would probably start with De Leon who was #25 in BAs mid season last year (and is currently #33 in MLB top 100). For a pitching prospect in the ballpark of #30 the surplus value is around $30M. A second pitching prospect would be Alvarez (who is currently ranked #91 by MLB). Basically pitchers between #50-100 have similar value of around $16M, but if the Twins are high on him they might value him in the $25-30M range (like a #26-50 pitching prospect). Combining De Leon and Alvarez could get the value close to the low end of Dozier's value, so I would guess 1-2 more prospects from the Buehler/Sheffield/Lux group would get the deal done.

 

So my Dozier trade (which I think is fairly realistic) would be De Leon, Alvarez, and Buehler for Dozier.

[DaveW]

As I reported in the new thread, the deal is pretty much a done deal.

 

No Urias (obviously) and no Puig

[jimmer]

 

Based on the surplus value concept Dozier would have a value of around $60M if he has average years for the next two seasons (based on his WAR performance the last 3 seasons). If Dozier was able to sustain something similar to last years performance his surplus value would increase to around $80M. So his trade value should be in the $60-80M range.

 

The expected surplus value of prospects (http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/) gives an idea of what a fair return would involve. A fair return for Dozier would be a pitcher ranked in the top #11-25 and a pitcher ranked #26-50 (based on baseball america rankings).

 

In terms of Dodgers prospects that would probably start with De Leon who was #25 in BAs mid season last year (and is currently #33 in MLB top 100). For a pitching prospect in the ballpark of #30 the surplus value is around $30M. A second pitching prospect would be Alvarez (who is currently ranked #91 by MLB). Basically pitchers between #50-100 have similar value of around $16M, but if the Twins are high on him they might value him in the $25-30M range (like a #26-50 pitching prospect). Combining De Leon and Alvarez could get the value close to the low end of Dozier's value, so I would guess 1-2 more prospects from the Buehler/Sheffield/Lux group would get the deal done.

 

So my Dozier trade (which I think is fairly realistic) would be De Leon, Alvarez, and Buehler for Dozier.

Dozier has averaged 4.3 WAR the last three years.  If we assume that continues (and he's 30, I wouldn't), and we figure 8M per one WAR, that's 68.8M (8.6M times 8M).  He gets paid 15M.  That's 53 surplus.

[twins_89]

 

Dozier has averaged 4.3 WAR the last three years.  If we assume that continues (and he's 30, I wouldn't), and we figure 8M per one WAR, that's 68.8M (8.6M times 8M).  He gets paid 15M.  That's 53 surplus.

 

According for Fangraphs (which is what I believe is typically used for surplus value) he had 4.7, 3.3, and 5.9 WAR the last three years which is an average of 4.63 WAR/year. Over two years that is worth $74.1M and after subtracting his salary it leaves $59.13M surplus value (which I called $60M for simplicity).