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Article: Official Winter Meetings: Sunday Thread


Seth Stohs
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The question with Stewart centers around the value he still has and the perception that it's dropping. There's good reason for it (K rate), though to be fair, Stewart really upped that in his second stint at High A this season only to see it drop again in AA.  He's very young for his league, so writing him off as a bust would be a bit silly. He has been pushed very aggressively by the Twins. If I have a package bringing back Alvarez, De Leon or Urias, and someone else highly though of like Bellinger, I'd consider it. 

 

If that was what it took to upgrade De Leon to Urias in a lesser deal (say Alvarez, Urias, and Calhoun) I'd again put a lot of thought into it.

 

As for Puig, I'll echo what John said.  Not a target, but most definitely a guy I'm willing to take if LA is desperate to get rid of him. 

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HEY!  Lookie, lookie:  The Pirates are making Antonio Bastardo available.  They'll even throw in some cash.   Anyone in a gambling mood on the lefty?

 

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

 

That's funny considering how many (myself included) want to sign him.

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The question with Stewart centers around the value he still has and the perception that it's dropping. There's good reason for it (K rate), though to be fair, Stewart really upped that in his second stint at High A this season only to see it drop again in AA.  He's very young for his league, so writing him off as a bust would be a bit silly. He has been pushed very aggressively by the Twins. If I have a package bringing back Alvarez, De Leon or Urias, and someone else highly though of like Bellinger, I'd consider it. 

 

If that was what it took to upgrade De Leon to Urias in a lesser deal (say Alvarez, Urias, and Calhoun) I'd again put a lot of thought into it.

 

As for Puig, I'll echo what John said.  Not a target, but most definitely a guy I'm willing to take if LA is desperate to get rid of him. 

I'm assuming Julio Urias is nearly untouchable. Stewart and Dozier wouldn't be enough to get Urias alone, much less a package including two other really good prospects.

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I'm assuming Julio Urias is nearly untouchable. Stewart and Dozier wouldn't be enough to get Urias alone, much less a package including two other really good prospects.

 

Urias may be untouchable. That's certainly fair, and I think we all agree that LA can likely get Dozier without Urias. But.... if you want us to start throwing in prospects, that makes the deal all that much better, and I want upside not quantity, and the new front office should be thinking the same. 

 

Perhaps Urias is untouchable (I'm still asking). There are still scenarios where I'd include Stewart. It would still involve some nice prospects (De Leon, Alvarez, Bellinger, and someone like Willie Calhoun would make me think about it). 

 

I wouldn't pretend that Stewart is untouchable, but like others have said, the STUFF is there. The results not so much just yet.  But he's always been very young for his league and still confounded hitters. His value may be lower, but he's hardly a guy worth throwing away.

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Various thoughts:

1. No way they target Puig. None.
2. I wonder if DeLeon cannot be included (and obviously not Urias), if a deal can get done. What about something w Alex Wood, Alvarez and, say, Sheffield or Buhler?
3. How about including C Austin Barnes in a deal. He's 26, but looks like an upgrade on Murphy - good D & framing catcher only w loads of plate discipline.

 

Puig wouldn't be the target. He would have to be included WITH a top pitching prospect, and maybe more. 

 

The thinking that I've read on that would be that he's a buy-low candidate. He could come to Minnesota, rebuild his value and then Falvey/Levine can shop him in July or next offseason, for more pitching. 

 

I think Kepler can move back to LF which is probably his best position. Puig can play RF. Rosario can be the 4th outfielder and try to maximize his positives and minimize his weaknesses. 

 

He's owed like $30 million yet, so the money side doesn't make sense. 

 

I definitely don't see enough pro in it to overcome the potential negatives of having him on the roster.

 

I think I'd take my shot with Garver over Barnes. Murphy is OK as a backup. Garver is a better hitter and defensive catcher from the various reports I've seen and people I've talked to. 

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What are the chances we think a Dozier deal gets done this offseason?. Got to be more than 50% now, right?

Still seems too high. I don't think a trade is ever that likely unless the selling team has a more obvious motivation to move the player (like a deadline deal of an expiring contract). The Twins motivation here is much murkier -- I still think it is most likely that he stays a Twin.

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So, let the rumors begin... Julio Urias? We can wish. Jose Deleon? Should be the minimum as a starting point.

Cody Bellinger is their top prospect, a left-handed hitting outfielder who can also play first base.

But the Twins need pitching, so names like Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler and Jordan Sheffield should be in discussions as well.

And maybe a shortstop too, like Gavin Lux.

 

 

 

Other than Bellinger (who really is not much of a fit, and I think is overvalued since most of his production came in hitter friendly leagues), the rest are not what the Twins need.

 

They need close to MLB-ready top of the rotation pitchers.  Those 3 are not, and, frankly, I didn't like what I have seen from Sheffield thus far and I think that the Twins have better prospects at the R or A level.  

 

Lux is totally not needed.  Gordon is a year or two away and I'd rank Javier way higher than (both and) Lux.  Got to go after weakenesses and SS is not one for sure.

 

Close to major top of the rotation starting pitching, esp. LHP is what is needed.  I hope that the Twins will be willing to add one of their prospects (Gonsalves, Jorge etc.) to upgrade to Urias.  Doable. 

 

Urias and DeLeon and Brock Stewart for Dozier and Gonsalves or? (and throw in Perkins and Kintzler if you have to), sounds pretty good

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A couple of quotes from KlawChat about some of the players being discussed:

 

7/21/16

Jack: Last week you said something like Jose De Leon doesn’t have a strikeout (or swing and miss) weapon. I’m trying to reconcile that observation with the fact that he keeps getting strikeouts. He’s been over 30% K% in both AA and AAA now. He’s got a high minors strikeout pitch that won’t translate? Can you give us some other examples of guys who generated these kinds of strikeout totals in the high minors who couldn’t translate any of that success to MLB?
Klaw: History is littered with guys who had adequate K rates in the minors and couldn’t hold it in the majors. Sean Manaea punched out 146 in 121 innings in his first year in pro ball, but that hasn’t held up. I like De Leon as a prospect but see a limited ceiling because he lacks that out pitch – and you’re not telling me he has an out pitch, or what it is, but are just pointing to a stat line.

 

7/14/16

Nic: Noticed you had Kohl Stewart as an honorable mention in the top 50 piece. With him being in Double-A what kind of ceiling do you currently project for him?
Klaw: I think he projects as a 3 or 4 starter. If you want ceiling, he’s going to have to miss some more bats, which he has the stuff to do but has not done, instead generating a lot of groundballs (which is still a good thing).

 

 

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I spoke with someone I know that works inside the organization and the fact is we won't do it unless it's Urias or DeLeon and the preferred is Urias they feel dozier is worth Urias and I would have to agree

 

So safe to assume if it was DeLeon they would need another significant piece then?

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I think Deleon is more than a 3rd starter, and the Dodgers are probably going to have to add in another good prospect or two too.

 

Julio Urias is not getting traded. I think that's pretty clear.

Nothing is clear until the offers are made. Sweeten the pot and get a difference maker.

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Sweeten the pot and get a difference maker.

I think that's wishful thinking.  It makes far more sense for the Dodgers to hold onto Urias and forego Kohl Stewart or whoever would sweeten the pot.   

 

Maybe the Twins can get Urias, but it will because of Dozier's value not because they sweetened the pot.  

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With the Dodgers needing to go cheaper yet still wanting vets to make another run I wonder if Perkins would interest them as a Jansen replacement.    I would happily include him to sweeten the return and LA does like its blockbuster trades.

Love the idea of this. Throw in Perkins and see if we can get De Leon, Alvrez, Sheffield, Puig and one more prospect. Maybe we have to add Rosario, but thatsok with me.

 

As for Stewart I think if that's what it takes to get 3 of their top 5 prospects and Puig+lesser prospects then I'd probably do it. We have to sell high on dozier. What if he slumps at the beginning of the year and we don't get the same for him. His value will never be higher than it is right now.

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I don't know enough about any players to talk about specific deals, but to me this seems like a rare opportunity for the Twins. A player at his peak with a favorable contract who is not going to be part of the Twins' long-term plan with several teams appearing to express interest. This could be a career-defining trade for Falvey and Levine and I'm sure they want to get this one right. 

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Love the idea of this. Throw in Perkins and see if we can get De Leon, Alvrez, Sheffield, Puig and one more prospect. Maybe we have to add Rosario, but thatsok with me.

 

As for Stewart I think if that's what it takes to get 3 of their top 5 prospects and Puig+lesser prospects then I'd probably do it. We have to sell high on dozier. What if he slumps at the beginning of the year and we don't get the same for him. His value will never be higher than it is right now.

 

Interesting trade idea, but the more players you add into a deal the harder it is to get done. 

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I get the feeling that the Falvey Twins would see Kohl Stewart as a comp to what Bauer and Kluber were before Cleveland acquired them.

 

1. former high draft pick

2. teased as a future #2+ starter

3. strong peripherals in milb

4. potential could be flatlined at a #4 starter 

5. a bit unsolved by home org.

6. seems like a throw-in sweetener in a big trade

 

For these reasons, I hope we keep him.  He's enigmatic and I'd love to see what new voices/messages Falvey, et. al. add to their minor league staff to bring Kohl around.

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