Walters: Molitor open to using more analytics

[Seth Stohs]

The lead in former Twins pitcher Charley Walters' article today in the Pioneer Press is on Paul Molitor and his thoughts on being open to using more analytics. He discussed lineup construction as well.

 

There are also a ton of neat notes throughout the article. For instance, former Gophers catcher, first-round pick and Mariners Hall of Famer Dan Wilson has a son who plays for the Gophers. Former Gopher and Twins player (and current Bethel coach) Brian Raabe's son is a high school junior that the Gophers are recruiting.

 

And lots of non-baseball notes too. 

 

http://www.twincities.com/2016/11/12/charley-walters-twins-paul-molitor-open-to-using-more-analytics/

 

 

[DocBauer]

Interesting comments, if a bit tongue in cheek. I'm not entirely sold on analytics myself, as it's still players playing the game, and not just computer simulations. And while the game of baseball itself hasn't changed much, there is simply more information available now to build and utilize a roster. So my initial response to response to making better use of this information, especially after a 103 loss season would be....DUH. lol

 

Wynegar as hitting coach? Call me intrigued.

[HitInAPinch]

I think people make a lot of assumptions about Molitor, like he's old school and would never use advanced metrics.  "Jack Goin, I trust a lot."  says it all. 

 

Information, scouting reports have always been out there.  Advanced metrics helps to quantify what the eyeball test sees. 

 

Butch Wynegar?  Not against the idea.  I'd like Chili Davis a lot more.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

I'm not entirely sold on analytics myself, as it's still players playing the game, and not just computer simulations. And while the game of baseball itself hasn't changed much, there is simply more information available now to build and utilize a roster. So my initial response to response to making better use of this information, especially after a 103 loss season would be....DUH. lol
 

 

So in other words, you're sold on analytics.

[nicksaviking]

--“I’ve heard of extreme cases where a manager posts a lineup and he gets a call from upstairs within 30 seconds and (is asked), ‘Why is this guy playing and blah, blah, blah,’ ” Molitor said. --

 

I guess I'm a bit skeptical of Molitor getting on board if he thinks the GM questioning the manager's lineup is "extreme". In my opinion, Molitor's lineups should have been scrutinized heavily last year and were probably one of the biggest reasons his dismissal would have been warranted.

 

--Jack Goin, I trust a lot. We have conversations throughout the year and I always joke, ‘What does the computer have today?’--

 

Also, that's not a very good joke. Sounds more like a good conversation starter for the analytics guy, minus the sarcasm.

[jimmer]

An ex-Twin is being suggested for hitting coach.  Shocking.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think people make a lot of assumptions about Molitor, like he's old school and would never use advanced metrics. "Jack Goin, I trust a lot." says it all.

 

Information, scouting reports have always been out there. Advanced metrics helps to quantify what the eyeball test sees.

 

Butch Wynegar? Not against the idea. I'd like Chili Davis a lot more.

Basing an opinion on his Molitor's) actually in game actions is not an assumption at all.

Molitor can say whatever he wants, his actions don't indicate someone who uses any analytics.

Funny how when someone in the organization says something that the forum in general won't like (such as Pohlad demanding Molitor stay), it's "oh he has to say that, he's lying, don't get worked up over what they say, see what they do. "

But when they say something that we'd consider good, despite actions being the complete opposite, we should believe the words?

 

EDIT: I want to be clear I'm not calling you a hypocrite. That comparison was to a segment of the forum in general, not you or anyone else specifically.

[Mike Sixel]

Actions>>>>>> words

 

I don't believe this for one minute.

[theBOMisthebomb]

I vote for a candidate for hitting coach that is NOT an ex-Twin or previously connected to the organization. Time for new blood.

[DocBauer]

I vote for a candidate for hitting coach that is NOT an ex-Twin or previously connected to the organization. Time for new blood.

Sorry, I have to disagree with you on this one. I don't know if Wyneger is the right choice or not, (though I have, in the past, heard mention of him here and there as an up and coming coach in various baseball circles), but his being a former Twins player has no bearing here. Butch hasn't been with the Twins since the early 80'stages unless I've missed something.

[Platoon]

--“I’ve heard of extreme cases where a manager posts a lineup and he gets a call from upstairs within 30 seconds and (is asked), ‘Why is this guy playing and blah, blah, blah,’ ” Molitor said. --

I guess I'm a bit skeptical of Molitor getting on board if he thinks the GM questioning the manager's lineup is "extreme". In my opinion, Molitor's lineups should have been scrutinized heavily last year and were probably one of the biggest reasons his dismissal would have been warranted.

--Jack Goin, I trust a lot. We have conversations throughout the year and I always joke, ‘What does the computer have today?’--

Also, that's not a very good joke. Sounds more like a good conversation starter for the analytics guy, minus the sarcasm.

. Agree on most of this. It takes a lot of poor play, bad luck and bad decisions to get to 103. And one of those was Molitors incoherent lineups. There is a difference between not having enough pitching to win, and putting out head scratching lineups daily. I sincerely hope the only reason Molitor is still here, is so he can be replaced as soon as the FO gets itself organized!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

--“I’ve heard of extreme cases where a manager posts a lineup and he gets a call from upstairs within 30 seconds and (is asked), ‘Why is this guy playing and blah, blah, blah,’ ” Molitor said. --

I guess I'm a bit skeptical of Molitor getting on board if he thinks the GM questioning the manager's lineup is "extreme". In my opinion, Molitor's lineups should have been scrutinized heavily last year and were probably one of the biggest reasons his dismissal would have been warranted.

--Jack Goin, I trust a lot. We have conversations throughout the year and I always joke, ‘What does the computer have today?’--

Also, that's not a very good joke. Sounds more like a good conversation starter for the analytics guy, minus the sarcasm.

 

I agree that Molly's lineups certainly deserve some question, but if the GM is micro-managing that, we have a real big problem, and not a good one.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"--Jack Goin, I trust a lot. We have conversations throughout the year and I always joke, ‘What does the computer have today?’--

Also, that's not a very good joke. Sounds more like a good conversation starter for the analytics guy, minus the sarcasm.

That quote stood out to me too. My reply would be, "the computer says we don't need to evaluate Grossman in the outfield anymore."

 

I'm sure Molitor trusts Goin but if Molitor isn't taking data seriously, that would be frustrating.

[operation mindcrime]

I vote for a candidate for hitting coach that is NOT an ex-Twin or previously connected to the organization. Time for new blood.

I vote for Barry Bonds. \m/

[clutterheart]

Walters: Molitor open to using more analytics  wants to keep his job

[Thrylos]

 

I vote for a candidate for hitting coach that is NOT an ex-Twin or previously connected to the organization. Time for new blood.

 

I think that the Twins did ok with Oliva as the brand new hitting coach in '87 and with Crowley as the brand new hitting coach in '91.

 

Connection with the Twins does not matter as much, if the person is the right person and has proven results to show in improving the way young hitters and teams hit.

 

And someone who says no to smallball and bunting and such...

[HitInAPinch]

 

Basing an opinion on his Molitor's) actually in game actions is not an assumption at all.
Molitor can say whatever he wants, his actions don't indicate someone who uses any analytics.
Funny how when someone in the organization says something that the forum in general won't like (such as Pohlad demanding Molitor stay), it's "oh he has to say that, he's lying, don't get worked up over what they say, see what they do. "
But when they say something that we'd consider good, despite actions being the complete opposite, we should believe the words?

EDIT: I want to be clear I'm not calling you a hypocrite. That comparison was to a segment of the forum in general, not you or anyone else specifically.

 

Thanks for that! 

 

Question:  are there advanced metric's for managers?  It's one thing to voice an opinion [ like me ] but is there something that delineates between good and bad managers?  If not, it would be interesting to see someone develop it.  And how......

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks for that! 

 

Question:  are there advanced metric's for managers?  It's one thing to voice an opinion [ like me ] but is there something that delineates between good and bad managers?  If not, it would be interesting to see someone develop it.  And how......

 

Not really, there are just so MANY variables that it is hard to judge managers. About the only "stat" is around bullpen usage, and getting RPs up and not using them, or something like that.....but there is almost no way to judge them that people have found.

 

Plus, most of their work is about the culture and clubhouse, not about in game tactics. It's just that we can really only SEE the tactics. Like, Madden is probably not a very good tactician, but you don't hire him for that part of his leadership, imo.

[Mr. Brooks]

Thanks for that!

 

Question: are there advanced metric's for managers? It's one thing to voice an opinion [ like me ] but is there something that delineates between good and bad managers? If not, it would be interesting to see someone develop it. And how......

And I'm not even saying that he is/isn't/can't be a good manager. I mean, my opinion is that he's not, but that's not what I'm saying in this thread.

Regardless of how good he is or is not as a manager, he hasn't seemed to base any of his decisions off any analytics.

Now, maybe last year has him willing to change, but like others have said, I'll believe it when I see it.

[nicksaviking]

 

I agree that Molly's lineups certainly deserve some question, but if the GM is micro-managing that, we have a real big problem, and not a good one.

 

I agree, I'd like the GM and manager on the same page to begin with regarding roster construction and usage. Molitor's quotes make me think he'll need some hand holding though as I'll not be happy if he needs a GM intervention in April telling him to stop batting Dozier leadoff and Mauer 3rd, which clearly he thinks is the way to go with the current group. The lineup will probably have to be fluid based on player movement, slumps and unexpected improvements that occur through out the season. Molitor's decisions last year didn't demonstrate that this was a strong suit of his.

[Doomtints]

I read the headline "Molitor open to using more analytics" as "Molitor open to saving his arse and keeping his job."  Being receptive to analytics is a good career move for him unless he is planning to retire in a year.  

All of the great managers in our lifetimes were huge on analytics and this probably goes back even further.  They weren't using modern sabermetrics of course, but they were digesting numbers nonstop and using this knowledge to make decisions.  To think one can succeed in baseball and not look at available  analytics is folly.  

[HitInAPinch]

 

Not really, there are just so MANY variables that it is hard to judge managers. About the only "stat" is around bullpen usage, and getting RPs up and not using them, or something like that.....but there is almost no way to judge them that people have found.

 

Plus, most of their work is about the culture and clubhouse, not about in game tactics. It's just that we can really only SEE the tactics. Like, Madden is probably not a very good tactician, but you don't hire him for that part of his leadership, imo.

Yeah, I looked around a little this morning and came up with nothing but traditional stats.  Figured it was worth asking.

[Linus]

I read the headline "Molitor open to using more analytics" as "Molitor open to saving his arse and keeping his job." Being receptive to analytics is a good career move for him unless he is planning to retire in a year.

 

All of the great managers in our lifetimes were huge on analytics and this probably goes back even further. They weren't using modern sabermetrics of course, but they were digesting numbers nonstop and using this knowledge to make decisions. To think one can succeed in baseball and not look at available analytics is folly.

Your lifetime must be a lot shorter than mine. In the time line of baseball analytics is a very recent event. Historically baseball has been a very traditional sport in most aspects including strategy and analysis.

[Mr. Brooks]

Your lifetime must be a lot shorter than mine. In the time line of baseball analytics is a very recent event. Historically baseball has been a very traditional sport in most aspects including strategy and analysis.

Analytics in baseball is as old as the game itself.

It's simply a matter of how advanced you want to be.

Batting average is analytics. Using any logical measurement of defense is analytical- even something as bare bones as fielding percentage is literally the definition of analysis.

 

Some people in baseball try to stay on the cutting edge of what and how we analyze. Other people, like Molitor so far, prefer to stick with the ones they are comfortable with. Or even disregard them altogether- like giving away outs via bunt.

 

Analytics has ALWAYS been a huge part of baseball, more so than other sports. It's why we revere the numbers so much. 500 HR, 3000 hits, 300 wins, etc.

[Doomtints]

 

Your lifetime must be a lot shorter than mine. In the time line of baseball analytics is a very recent event. Historically baseball has been a very traditional sport in most aspects including strategy and analysis.

 

I'm probably older than you are, which is why I understand that the elite managers consumed all of the numbers available to them.  Bill James did not come out of a vacuum.

There are many books I can point you to.  "The Numbers Game" might be a good start.  If you have ever read "Baseball Digest" you'll know that its entire run was devoted to obscure statistics and obscure players.  There is another book (I forget the title) which covered a top-tier manager's pre-game routine in minute detail (sorry, I forget which manager, but he was managing long before Fangraphs was around).

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

"The computer says its ironic Danny Santana gets thrown out on the bases so much, considering his natural speed."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

I'm probably older than you are, which is why I understand that the elite managers consumed all of the numbers available to them.  Bill James did not come out of a vacuum.

There are many books I can point you to.  "The Numbers Game" might be a good start.  If you have ever read "Baseball Digest" you'll know that its entire run was devoted to obscure statistics and obscure players.  There is another book (I forget the title) which covered a top-tier manager's pre-game routine in minute detail (sorry, I forget which manager, but he was managing long before Fangraphs was around).

I don't disbelieve you, but I would be intrigued to see something more specific. Otherwise I agree with the other poster. Branch Rickey maybe? 

[Vanimal46]

It's all fine and dandy that Molly is open to using analytics.... There's a couple of issues to address:

1 - Does he understand the significance of the data/insights Falvey and company provides to him?

2 - Can he explain the data/insights in layman's terms to the players?

 

Teams and companies can build up all the data in the world if they want... If a manager can't explain how the data works in the player's favor, then what's the point of all that data? 

[Doomtints]

 

It's all fine and dandy that Molly is open to using analytics.... There's a couple of issues to address:

1 - Does he understand the significance of the data/insights Falvey and company provides to him?

2 - Can he explain the data/insights in layman's terms to the players?

 

Teams and companies can build up all the data in the world if they want... If a manager can't explain how the data works in the player's favor, then what's the point of all that data? 

 

Does he need to explain it to the players?  I can't think of a scenario where he would need to.  If he is making daily and in-game lineup decisions based on analytics and matchups, no one is going to be out of the lineup for long.  The days of someone riding the pine for a week or more would be in the past.  

 

The bigger question is does Molitor have the capacity to properly analyze and memorize everything available.  This would be a full time job in and of itself.  Does he want to stay up until midnight analyzing every possible matchup for each game?  He will have to memorize this stuff because the MLB doesn't allow printed analytics or computers in the dugout.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Does he need to explain it to the players?  I can't think of a scenario where he would need to.  If he is making daily and in-game lineup decisions based on analytics and matchups, no one is going to be out of the lineup for long.  The days of someone riding the pine for a week or more would be in the past.  

 

The bigger question is does Molitor have the capacity to properly analyze and memorize everything available.  This would be a full time job in and of itself.  Does he want to stay up until midnight analyzing every possible matchup for each game?  He will have to memorize this stuff because the MLB doesn't allow printed analytics or computers in the dugout.  

Who else would explain to the players the data collected by Falvey and co? I'll be the first to admit that analytics isn't my strong suit. Wouldn't they use the data and insights to draw up a game plan for most players? Such as "Hey Joe, Kluber throws a slider on the outside corner for a strike 51% of the time on the first pitch. Be on the lookout for that." Or, "We're going to use this shift whenever Victor Martinez is at the plate because he has a 67% pull rate and a .383 BABIP..."