Improving the Twins

[alarp33]

 

Oh heck no.  I said "a Wilson Ramos"...doesn't need to be Wilson Ramos.  I'd love to sign Ramos back into the fold, but guessing that will cost big money.  If we can trade Dozier for MLB ready pitching or MLB ready catching that will improve our defense significantly, I'd do it.  Polanco can play 2nd and we will take an offensive hit at that position, but if we can pick up a catcher to replace most of that offensive pop AND improve our defense, I'd do it.

 

Ok. I think this quote is what confused me "I'd do that if I'm getting back a catcher that is a defensive upgrade and will give me 20-25 home runs.".  You made it seem as if you were only trading Dozier for this, not a pitcher

[gocgo]

 

Ok. I think this quote is what confused me "I'd do that if I'm getting back a catcher that is a defensive upgrade and will give me 20-25 home runs.".  You made it seem as if you were only trading Dozier for this, not a pitcher

Sorry about that.  No, I'd trade Dozier for pitching, but I need a quality MLB pitcher back, not a prospect, not a back end rotation guy.  I get it that we aren't getting Strasburg or Kershaw back for him, but give me a solid 2....which actually equates to a 1 on this staff!

[DocBauer]

I'm still torn on Santiago. I need to see more to make a firm decision. As of now, he's probably gone. I'm keeping Santana and Dozier. I want a good team. I want my team to play well, compete, and hopefully win some games even as I'm in a youth movement.

 

*I'm not spending big on a catcher. I'm signing the veteran my scouts like best to a 1 year deal, maybe with a club option. (might also look for a cheap milb invite like Hicks and Centennial last year) Murphy and Centennial fight for the backup job and Garver plays about every day at Rochester.

 

*Sano stays at 3B. I'm giving him time. but also expect hard work and to lose a few pounds. Escobar and Polanco fight for SS, the other is a quality utility guy. Dozier at 2B. Mauer and Vargas are 1B/DH, Park in contention but maybe squeezed. (in some 23 player scenarios, there could be room for all 3)

 

*I was going to look for another Grossman type to battle Grossman, (who I think is serviceable) I'm switching gears and looking now for a more established LF or CF for depth and competition and rolling with him, Rosario, Buxton and Kepler. Grossman can go to AAA or be a 5th OF possibly.

 

* Really torn on Plouffe as insurance.

 

*If I only keep 4 OF, could be room for Park or Plouffe.

 

*My rotation includes Santana, Gibson, Berrios for sure. Probably May, who can shift back to the pen if necessary. The final spot is open to Duffy, Mejia and Wheeler. (as of now, not counting on Hughes who could be a nice surprise)

 

*I'm looking for a couple LHRP hoping to find another Abad to go along with Roger's in the pen. Pressly, Tonkin and Chargois are also in. I'm either keeping Kintzler or a FA closer type looking for either a bounce back or one more year, but not both. The 7th spot is open to anyone, lefty or right.

 

My team is mostly young, with a few key vets helping everything along for a year or two

[Platoon]

There is nothing fine with this defense.

Thank you!

[Doomtints]

 

Oh heck no.  I said "a Wilson Ramos"...doesn't need to be Wilson Ramos.  I'd love to sign Ramos back into the fold, but guessing that will cost big money.  If we can trade Dozier for MLB ready pitching or MLB ready catching that will improve our defense significantly, I'd do it.  Polanco can play 2nd and we will take an offensive hit at that position, but if we can pick up a catcher to replace most of that offensive pop AND improve our defense, I'd do it.

 

The Twins overpaid for Suzuki.  Ramos would probably command Suzuki money, albeit for a longer contract.  The Twins are already used to paying for that.  But do they want Ramos (or any other catcher) on a long contract?  

[DocBauer]

I want to apologize for errors in my previous post due to my new Galaxy phone and still getting used to the auto correct. My apoligies.

[Linus]

The Twins overpaid for Suzuki. Ramos would probably command Suzuki money, albeit for a longer contract. The Twins are already used to paying for that. But do they want Ramos (or any other catcher) on a long contract?

There is no way Ramos is signing for $6 million per year which is Suzuki money.

[Doomtints]

 

There is no way Ramos is signing for $6 million per year which is Suzuki money.

 

There are only 7 catchers in the entire league paid more than Suzuki.  Is Ramos in the top 7 catchers in the league?  Ramos is a top 3 catcher this year (a contract year, I might add), but in previous years he was not a top 7 catcher. 

 

Some team probably will overpay him based on his 2016 performance.  All I have to say to the team that will do that is ... good luck with that!

[gocgo]

 

The Twins overpaid for Suzuki.  Ramos would probably command Suzuki money, albeit for a longer contract.  The Twins are already used to paying for that.  But do they want Ramos (or any other catcher) on a long contract?  

Good question.  Ramos already has some injury concerns and we've already experienced what signing a catcher long term can lead to.

[old nurse]

 

Offensively, Dozier's WAR is 4.3 - tied for 4th with Pedroia.  The highest of any of the catchers that you've listed is 3.9.  I know everyone beats up Suzuki and I'm not saying he's good, but his WAR is 1.1 while Perez is 2.2.  

 

Defensively, Suzuki's DWAR is .3 while Perez ranks the highest at 1.6.  Dozier is .5 while Pedroia leads the league at 1.4.

 

The point I'm not doing a good job of making is that replacing Dozier's defense is easy, replacing his bat is not going to be easy.  Therefore, trading him has to yield back something more than prospects that may or may not pan out.  You NEED to get back a Wilson Ramos...Damn that Matt Capps trade!...for Dozier or it isn't worth trading him.

 

Remember your goal as GM is to improve the defense while maintaining the offense.

Specifically defensive catcher that can hit 20+ HR is rarer than 20+ HR 2B.  The comment on replacing Dozier's offense in trade, if one Terry Ryan made that comment he would be vilified.

[BomboHoskinChiles]

Time for a large dose of reality: the Twins have not built an organization to win longer-term. Without pitching and defense (specifically up the middle - C, SS, CF), we will be left dreaming about Sano's 40 home runs and Buxton trying NOT to strike out. Not since Santana/Liriano (one year - 2006) or the defense of Mauer-Guzman-Hunter have the Twins been in a position to win. After all, the teams of the 1960s were built on pitching, defense and three offensive studs - Harmon, Tony and Carew. 1987 had it - Laudner/Gagne/Kirby; 1991 had 2/3 of this combo - Kirby/Gagne (If you think Suzuki is bad, don't forget all hit, no glove B. Harper). 

 

So - 1) Fix the pitching; 2) Solidify C/SS/CF; 3) Empower your offensive studs

 

How do we do this?

 

1) Fix the pitching = Some of this has started since Ryan came back after the Smith debacle. The minor leagues have a mixture of power arms and Radke's (don't scoff - a staff needs both). But, the Twins must continue to stock pile both. The current ML staff has a mixture of headcases (Duffy, May), veterans (Santana, Santiago, Gibson, Pressly, Kintzler) and projects (Chargois, Berrios, Rogers). Perkins needs to take an injury settlement and the Twins need to be creative. The new GM should be aggressive and trade a few veterans (Gibson, Kintzler), help pave the way for Kohls and Gonsalves in 2018 and avoid free agents.

 

2) Solidify C/SS/CF = C is a disaster, with BOTH Smith (Ramos trade) and Ryan (no forward thinking) to blame. Enough complaining. Centeno is a serviceable back-up only and Suzuki is a liability and expensive, while Murphy is a headcase (yes, stating the obvious). If we can get offense from 1 of the three up the middle guys = good. If 2 out of three = AWESOME. So, the bet the Twins have to make is that the offense will come from Buxton longer-term, while focusing on "quicker" offense from SS first (especially given C limitations and expensive FA alternatives). Thus, Polanco at SS is the key for the next 2 years while Gordon in the minors awaits. During that time, Buxton will hopefully mature as a hitter while saving runs in CF, making C THE defense key. A decision must be made on Murphy to fish or cut bait, while a Garver/Centeno platoon could work if managed properly. (Please Dougy M or Tory L - save us).

 

3) Empower your offensive studs = THREE STEPS: A. If Sano really is "Miggy" - then make him Miggy and move him to 1B, with 2 games a week at DH. It is time for Mauer to man-up and admit he is hurt and take an injury settlement OR accept a DH/PH/Super sub role. He has two years left on his contract and with his current pace of output, his lifetime .300-plus BA could be at jeopardy. A move to 1B would allow Sano to settle in at ONE position, protect his elbow and focus on hitting. Mauer is going nowhere - he has become a selfish, non-coachable energy sucker that we are stuck with. Yes, it is sad that his melon was knocked around. However, his injury history is not new -- and the Twins HAVE NOT managed him properly since anointing him the savior. Joe needs some tough love - and he will NOT receive it from Molitor. Only a new GM and manager can facilitate. B. Give Dozier the Captain's patch and build the team around him. He is the real team leader as Buxton is Mauer-esqe and Sano is too immature. Within 2 years, Dozier could potentially be moved to 3B, with Polanco at 2B and Gordon at SS. The returns for a Plouffe trade will be low (unless we get a ML ready pitcher if a team gets emotional and makes a drastic decision before Aug 31 or this winter). C. Find that third stud - could be Kepler, even Rosario (if he keeps his head on straight). Don't forget Walker and Palka, let alone Vargas and Park. DSantana is a 4th OF at best, ditto for Grossman. Of this list, all should be trade bait for PITCHING, except Kepler.

 

I am just a simple kid from MN who loves the Twins, a 15 year full season ticket holder and a dreamer of good baseball. We have a chance with this ball club, but not with the current culture and strategy. Sacrifices will need to be made to win. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The Twins overpaid for Suzuki.  Ramos would probably command Suzuki money, albeit for a longer contract.  The Twins are already used to paying for that.  But do they want Ramos (or any other catcher) on a long contract?  

 

Ramos is going to get a lot more than Suzuki money.

[Major League Ready]

 

Ramos is going to get a lot more than Suzuki money.

Probably closer to Martin / McCann money, right?

[tobi0040]

Probably closer to Martin / McCann money, right?

5-80 is a lot more realistic than 2-12. No question.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe he meant Suzuki total money ($12 mil) on an annual basis? I have no idea.

[beckmt]

I would trade Dozier in a heartbeat for a number 2 starter and a good prospect(sell high).  He is having a career year and cash it in.  He will be 32-33 by the time the Twins are ready and on the expensive downside of his career.  Many of the big market teams could use Dozier(and his contract) and most have sellable pitching assets.  You can never have enough pitching, so let's get started.  That would clear 2nd base for Polanco and have one of the logjams out of the way(along with Dozier's feast or famine types of years).

Move Gibson, Santiago, and whatever other older pitchers you can.  Twins will struggle next year, but if you do not see what you have in the upper levels of the farm system, how can you make decisions on which pitchers are keepers and which are not.

Players figure things out at different rates, just because some of them seem not to figure thing out does not mean it cannot happen.  Most of the new major leaguers start between 25 -27 and are done in 4 - 8 years.  The earlier ones are a bonus. 

New GM needs to clean out the entrenched minor league staff(maybe except for Chad Allan, Dougie, and Jake Mauer) and figure out why the players the Twins have coming up so lack in fundamentals

​.

Rest of organization can stay until a better analysis is done.  Much of it is hit and miss.

 

[Vanimal46]

With the current state of the pitching staff, and reinforcements still being at best 1.5 years away, I just can't see them putting it all together. I'm 100% bought in on trading Dozier this off-season. Especially coming off a career season like he's having. 

The offense appears to be good enough to compete. The defense and pitching will continue to hold the team back from doing so. Dozier is our best trade chip, and could get real value in return, such as a front line starting pitching option. It's going to be a tough pill to swallow initially, but there's no other way to improve the pitching for 2017-2018. 

[docsillyseth]

Like I posted earlier. Take a flier for Puig. We certainly made worse choices both in players and $$$$$. He's owed about 17.5M next two years. Have Dodgers pay 7.5-10M and offer them a "B" prospect. Either one that's good but no room on 40 man or one on 40 man that you can trade i.e. Grossman, Walker, Santana, or Vargas. We need to do something and I'm sure Puig has had his share of humble pie and ready to prove people wrong. Hell, he's two years removed from being the guy and still only 25 yo.

[Major League Ready]

 

With the current state of the pitching staff, and reinforcements still being at best 1.5 years away, I just can't see them putting it all together. I'm 100% bought in on trading Dozier this off-season. Especially coming off a career season like he's having. 

The offense appears to be good enough to compete. The defense and pitching will continue to hold the team back from doing so. Dozier is our best trade chip, and could get real value in return, such as a front line starting pitching option. It's going to be a tough pill to swallow initially, but there's no other way to improve the pitching for 2017-2018. 

The Royals, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs all traded their best trade chips a couple years before becoming contenders.    I think your point regarding reinforcements being 1.5 years away is both accurate and critical in terms of the roadmap for this team becoming a contender.  I sure like having Dozier on this team but he will be gone by the time we are in contention.  Hopefully, the new GM uses this asset to acquire the assets we will need to actually contend.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The Royals, Mets, Pirates, and Cubs all traded their best trade chips a couple years before becoming contenders.    I think your point regarding reinforcements being 1.5 years away is both accurate and critical in terms of the roadmap for this team becoming a contender.  I sure like having Dozier on this team but he will be gone by the time we are in contention.  Hopefully, the new GM uses this asset to acquire the assets we will need to actually contend.

 

yup, I've changed from being unsure they should trade Dozier to "they need to get some great prospects". I just think they are still 2 years away, and they need to strengthen the pipeline even more.

[TheLeviathan]

Dozier and Plouffe better be enjoying spring training with other clubs.  

[alarp33]

Update on Danny Santana, starting OFer, since the start of 2015. 

 

.228/.261/.311  50 wRC+  23.4% K rate, 3.5% BB rate, 60% success on SB, .082 ISO

 

 

Improve the Twins? Cut players like this rather than give them 250+ at bats a year

[Doomtints]

 

Update on Danny Santana, starting OFer, since the start of 2015. 

 

.228/.261/.311  50 wRC+  23.4% K rate, 3.5% BB rate, 60% success on SB, .082 ISO

 

 

Improve the Twins? Cut players like this rather than give them 250+ at bats a year

 

 

There were similar arguments around Nick Punto (and heck, Ryan Doumit) and losing both of them did not help things as people hoped they would.

 

About the only thing I trust the Twins management on is their ability to have useful utility players.  They may not have great stats, but losing them has never worked out the way fans expected.  Unfortunately for the Twins, you only need one utility guy.  

[gocgo]

 

Update on Danny Santana, starting OFer, since the start of 2015. 

 

.228/.261/.311  50 wRC+  23.4% K rate, 3.5% BB rate, 60% success on SB, .082 ISO

 

 

Improve the Twins? Cut players like this rather than give them 250+ at bats a year

Yeah, I have yet to figure out the love for DanSan.  I understand keeping Grossman as a 4th OF, I don't see where giving DanSan at bats in a lost season is better than giving Buxton at bats in a lost season.  Not saying that Buxton's numbers are as good...just saying that it is a lost season and has been since April.

[alarp33]

 

There were similar arguments around Nick Punto (and heck, Ryan Doumit) and losing both of them did not help things as people hoped they would.

 

About the only thing I trust the Twins management on is their ability to have useful utility players.  They may not have great stats, but losing them has never worked out the way fans expected.  Unfortunately for the Twins, you only need one utility guy.  

 

Nick Punto was a good defender. I'm not sure what the parallels are between him and Santana, who holds no value.  

 

Useful in what way?

[jimmer]

 

Nick Punto was a good defender. I'm not sure what the parallels are between him and Santana, who holds no value.  

 

Useful in what way?

 

exactly.  besides, Escobar is perfectly acceptable as a utility IF. and if Buxton ever becomes a regular MLB player, Grossman/Rosario will be fine as a 4th OF.

[mikelink45]

Dozier has a 3B bat, Polanco is a 2B defender.   Escobar is the best we have at SS for now, Mauer is 1B no matter what we all write and post.  Rosario, Buxton, Kepler give us defense in the OF.  I am not comfortable with the catcher defense rankings.  Framing means getting a strike out of a ball, just get better pitchers who come closer to the plate with the pitches that are supposed to be on the corners.  It is Suzuki's arm that is the concern.  I do not see a solution at C - I suspect that we will have Garver/Centeno and Ryan there for the next year.  

 

Now if we can get some balls hit that are not launched because of the down the middle pitching we can be ready for a respectable team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

About the only thing I trust the Twins management on is their ability to have useful utility players.  They may not have great stats, but losing them has never worked out the way fans expected.  Unfortunately for the Twins, you only need one utility guy.  

Santana's either a second utility guy on this team, or he's not really a utility guy but rather a backup outfielder and emergency infielder.  Santana's first infield start this year?  July 6th.  His most recent infield appearance of any kind?  July 30, just after the Nunez trade but before Plouffe came back.

[Doomtints]

 

Nick Punto was a good defender. I'm not sure what the parallels are between him and Santana, who holds no value.  

 

Useful in what way?

 

Someone like Punto who could excel at defense at any position is something we will probably never see again.

 

The point was more that when Punto was around, there were a lot of fans screaming that he was useless.  Clearly he wasn't.  The point is to be careful what you wish for.  Santana's defense is terrible in LF and RF but at other positions he is at least close to league average.  I don't know that many other team's utility guys are much better.

 

I'm not a big Santana fan either, if he were cut I wouldn't lose sleep over it.  I just think that the Twins probably have a decent understanding of Santana.  Simply cutting players with no plan to replace them hasn't worked out well for the Twins.  Others may hit better, others may do OF defense better, but can the potential replacements play all of the positions he can without embarrassing themselves?  Jason Bartlett memories should still be reasonably fresh around here.      Santana at least gives the Twins a chance to keep the game reasonably close, provided the Twins are hitting as they should be.

 

[alarp33]

 

Someone like Punto who could excel at defense at any position is something we will probably never see again.

 

The point was more that when Punto was around, there were a lot of fans screaming that he was useless.  Clearly he wasn't.  The point is to be careful what you wish for.  Santana's defense is terrible in LF and RF but at other positions he is at least close to league average.  I don't know that many other team's utility guys are much better.

 

I'm not a big Santana fan either, if he were cut I wouldn't lose sleep over it.  I just think that the Twins probably have a decent understanding of Santana.  Simply cutting players with no plan to replace them hasn't worked out well for the Twins.  Others may hit better, others may do OF defense better, but can the potential replacements play all of the positions he can without embarrassing themselves?  Jason Bartlett memories should still be reasonably fresh around here.      Santana at least gives the Twins a chance to keep the game reasonably close, provided the Twins are hitting as they should be.

 

Nick Punto never had a negative bWAR in a season.  Danny Santana has been well below 0 WAR in each of the past 2 seasons, the single worst player in the league by bWAR.  

 

In what way is Santana giving the Twins a chance? He is a horrendous hitter, poor base stealer, and we seem to agree that he's a horrible OFer.  

 

So the bar you are setting to continue to be on the 25 man roster, and see significant playing time, is "be a better OFer than Jason Bartlett was in his 2 week stint in 2014 or whever that was?