Improving the Twins

[Doomtints]

 

Again, who is the Twins utility player now?  Who was our utility player for the first half of the season?

 

If Santana was actually our utility player, fewer people would be complaining.  But he's not, we've had a different, better utility player on the team basically all season (and 2015).

 

 

This falls in line nicely with what I said earlier, in that people are always negative about Twins utility players.  People were down on Nunez until quite recently as well.  I always contended that he never had enough plate appearances to know for sure how good he was.  I think he performed above sustainable levels in 2016 but nevertheless he proved he can be a good player.

 

And if I recall correctly, Santana started the season on the DL.  Nunez may have not gotten the chance to bloom if not for that injury.  

[Doomtints]

 

416 out of 585 if you exclude pitchers.

 

380 out of 466 if you add just a 50 PA threshold.

 

True.  I wouldn't call that "embarrassing."  How many Twins are below him?

[jimmer]

The glossary that says this you mean?

 

"The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. There’s plenty more to say about this issue, but that’s for another entry."

 

Sure, I'll go ahead and read that. Thanks!

so right there it says one or three years. One year works. But okay, again. This is like discussing Sano in Rf defense. Im moving on.

[Doomtints]

 

I assume you agree with baserunning and defense comments then?   So your bar is, there's room for him on a 25 man roster because he has a better OPS than Ramon Flores and AJ?

 

 

Not sure why you would assume that since I have been talking about defense for a full hour now. 

 

As for baserunning, this team is full of players who aren't good at it.  I'm not seeing how it matters.  If the dude were a high OBP base stealer this would be a conversation about him being the leadoff hitter, not the #10 guy.  

[Doomtints]

 

so right there it says one or three years. One year works. But okay, again. This is like discussing Sano in Rf defense.

 

Of course it is.  I used the same advanced metrics in both instances.  

[alarp33]

 

 

 assume you agree with baserunning and defense comments then?   So your bar is, there's room for him on a 25 man roster because he has a better OPS than Ramon Flores and AJ?

 

 

 

Not sure why you would assume that since I have been talking about defense for a full hour now. 

As for baserunning, this team is full of players who aren't good at it.  I'm not seeing how it matters.  If the dude were a high OBP base stealer this would be a conversation about him being the leadoff hitter, not the #10 guy.  

 

 

He is 268th of 280 in OPS (a massive improvement over last year, at least?) and you just used that as an argument for keeping him on the roster and playing him.  

[Doomtints]

 

so right there it says one or three years. One year works. But okay, again. This is like discussing Sano in Rf defense. Im moving on.

 

Santana has neither a one nor a three year sample size for CF fielding.  He has 112 games total.  

 

I think you are simply proving that you are biased.

[Doomtints]

 

He is 268th of 280 in OPS (a massive improvement over last year, at least?) and you just used that as an argument for keeping him on the roster and playing him.  

 

No, I used that as an argument for him not being an "embarrassment."

[alarp33]

 

No, I used that as an argument for him not being an "embarrassment."

 

297 of 300 (min 450 PA) since start of 2015 in wRC+. 

 

I guess I'm confused as what WOULD qualify as an embarrassment if these numbers don't?

[Doomtints]

 

297 of 300 (min 450 PA) since start of 2015 in wRC+. 

 

I guess I'm confused as what WOULD qualify as an embarrassment if these numbers don't?

 

What's his ranking in 2016?  I'm not interested in his 2015 numbers, which are probably as much of a fluke as his 2014 numbers were.  Throwing in 2015 serves only to make him look worse.  You may notice I am not throwing in his 2014 numbers to make him look better.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This falls in line nicely with what I said earlier, in that people are always negative about Twins utility players.

I think you may be misunderstanding what I am saying.

 

You keep repeating that Santana is acceptable as a utility player, but he's not one, and we haven't needed him to be one.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

True.  I wouldn't call that "embarrassing."  How many Twins are below him?

It's pretty bad.  How many guys have been demoted behind him?  Or released?  Or being pushing into retirement?

[gocgo]

Well, one little DanSan comment certainly took off.

 

Here is what I would say to the DanSan fans...Is he or should he be in the long term plans for the Twins?

 

My answer is NO!  Once again, the season was lost looong ago.  So, why play him over Buxton?  We know Buxton can hit AAA pitching.  I realize he needed to work out some things with the bat, but why not work them out with your best coaches (assuming they are your best coaches) against MLB pitching.  You aren't even going to know if he is improving when he's hitting against AAA pitching.  Why not have him roaming CF and improving those skills and getting used to playing next to Kepler and Rosario?  What are we gaining for the future by playing DanSan?

[jimmer]

Of course it is. I used the same advanced metrics in both instances.

with Sano you used putouts 75 i believe and chances 78 i believe.. Thats fielding %.nothing advanced about that. Ranking people by that, also not advanced

[Doomtints]

 

I think you may be misunderstanding what I am saying.

 

You keep repeating that Santana is acceptable as a utility player, but he's not one, and we haven't needed him to be one.

 

Holy taken out of context.  What you quoted was me talking about Nunez!

 

I give up.  Moving on.  

[Doomtints]

 

with Sano you used putouts 75 i believe and chances 78 i believe.. Thats fielding %.nothing advanced about that. Ranking people by that, also not advanced

 

I added to that later on.  Read further.

[alarp33]

 

What's his ranking in 2016?  I'm not interested in his 2015 numbers, which are probably as much of a fluke as his 2014 numbers were.  Throwing in 2015 serves only to make him look worse.  You may notice I am not throwing in his 2014 numbers to make him look better.  

 

250 of 269, some backup catchers and players that have been released behind him.  Again, why do you think these numbers are acceptable?

[alarp33]

 

Well, one little DanSan comment certainly took off.

 

Here is what I would say to the DanSan fans...Is he or should he be in the long term plans for the Twins?

 

My answer is NO!  Once again, the season was lost looong ago.  So, why play him over Buxton?  We know Buxton can hit AAA pitching.  I realize he needed to work out some things with the bat, but why not work them out with your best coaches (assuming they are your best coaches) against MLB pitching.  You aren't even going to know if he is improving when he's hitting against AAA pitching.  Why not have him roaming CF and improving those skills and getting used to playing next to Kepler and Rosario?  What are we gaining for the future by playing DanSan?

 

Yeah sorry about that... seeing him in the lineup on a daily basis really gets me going.  

 

And yes, the point you made was the larger one I was trying to make when I started all of this.  If they want to do better, this is a pretty simple way to start.  Stop with this crap of him playing most days. He holds no value, none.  He is not a positive in any facet of the game.  

[gocgo]

 

Yeah sorry about that... seeing him in the lineup on a daily basis really gets me going.  

 

And yes, the point you made was the larger one I was trying to make when I started all of this.  If they want to do better, this is a pretty simple way to start.  Stop with this crap of him playing most days. He holds no value, none.  He is not a positive in any facet of the game.  

Yeah, I agree.  I know the guy has a fragile psyche.  He gets upset when people say bad things about him, but that's not a reason to play the guy.  It's like the Twins are thinking they can get on a roll and get back into this thing when they should be focused entirely on the future.  Yeah, "one game at a time"...blah, blah, blah.  That's great if you are in the hunt.  We aren't and haven't been for a long time.  There's nothing to gain by playing him in the outfield.  If he were a utility infielder, you could play him there, but he's not.  It's just another in a long list of head scratching moves that the Twins have made this year.

[Doomtints]

 

Yeah, I agree.  I know the guy has a fragile psyche.  He gets upset when people say bad things about him, but that's not a reason to play the guy.  It's like the Twins are thinking they can get on a roll and get back into this thing when they should be focused entirely on the future.  Yeah, "one game at a time"...blah, blah, blah.  That's great if you are in the hunt.  We aren't and haven't been for a long time.  There's nothing to gain by playing him in the outfield.  If he were a utility infielder, you could play him there, but he's not.  It's just another in a long list of head scratching moves that the Twins have made this year.

 

Santana has a "fragile psyche"?  Where are you getting that?

 

My beef with this whole thing is that people think of it as a Santana v. Escobar thing.  But let's face it -- the Twins are going to be roughly the same if they keep either of them in this role.  They should cut both of them loose.

 

BUT they should only make a change if they have a plan to replace them.  This has been my point. Lately the Twins have been making moves without signing a better player to improve.  Cutting without replacing.  It hasn't worked.  This thread is full of people calling for Santana's head but there are no options provided to replace him, viable options or not.  

[alarp33]

 

 This thread is full of people calling for Santana's head but there are no options provided to replace him, viable options or not.  

 

Palka

Buxton

Vargas

Beresford

ABW

 

How many more do you need?  Those are just internal options, I could check out the waiver wire and find some more (Arcia?)

[Doomtints]

 

Palka

Buxton

Vargas

Beresford

ABW

 

How many more do you need?  Those are just internal options, I could check out the waiver wire and find some more (Arcia?)

 

Beresford's numbers look an awful lot like Santana's and he probably can't back up CF.  The rest of those guys can't start in the middle infield.  So to solve one problem you just created additional problems.  This may be the Twins Way since 2011 but, come on.  Let's do better.

[alarp33]

 

Beresford's numbers look an awful lot like Santana's and he probably can't back up CF.  The rest of those guys can't start in the middle infield.  So to solve one problem you just created additional problems.  This may be the Twins Way since 2011 but, come on.  Let's do better.

 

Escobar

Polanco

Dozier

 

Why do you need a 4th middle infield option? Santana has started 2 games in the middle infield this entire season, I'm confused why you think that's needed?

[jimmer]

Santana has neither a one nor a three year sample size for CF fielding. He has 112 games total.

 

I think you are simply proving that you are biased.

my bias being i prefer not having players bad at everything getting any significant playing time. Yes, bias.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Holy taken out of context. What you quoted was me talking about Nunez!

 

I give up. Moving on.

I asked you a question about Santana. You responded by not directly answering the question, but bringing up Nunez as another utility player maligned by fans (presumably in addition to Santana whom you have repeatedly called an adequate utility player in this thread). Nothing was taken out of context, I fully understood you were talking about Nunez, but reiterated my question about Santana which you once again failed to acknowledge.

 

You seem to be missing a very simple point: while Santana might be an adequate option as a utility player in some circumstances, HE IS NOT A UTILITY PLAYER ON THE TWINS nor do we need an extra utility player at this point to do things poorly in other positions/roles.

 

An analogy might be, a third catcher on a team might be an adequate backup if a team needed one. That doesn't necessarily justify carrying a third catcher or miscasting him as a fourth outfielder.

 

We seem to have some problems getting on the same wavelength to even have a discussion! I will bow out at this point too.

[gocgo]

 

Santana has a "fragile psyche"?  Where are you getting that?

 

My beef with this whole thing is that people think of it as a Santana v. Escobar thing.  But let's face it -- the Twins are going to be roughly the same if they keep either of them in this role.  They should cut both of them loose.

 

BUT they should only make a change if they have a plan to replace them.  This has been my point. Lately the Twins have been making moves without signing a better player to improve.  Cutting without replacing.  It hasn't worked.  This thread is full of people calling for Santana's head but there are no options provided to replace him, viable options or not.  

Last year when they sent him down, it was reported that Santana was affected by the negative press on him.

 

www.startribune.com/danny-santanas-demotion-shows-the-downside-of-athletes-on-twitter/306667601/

 

I agree on the plan...the Twins haven't really had one for a while now.  I see Esco as a better player than Santana from a number of aspects, but one is that he is a team first guy.  I like him in a utility role.  He can come of the bench and produce.  He can play multiple infield positions and switch hit.  If I had to pick one, I'd pick him over Santana.

[jimmer]

'Here are his F2O% numbers by position compared to the rest of baseball for 2016.  (And before anyone responds, F2O% is NOT fielding percentage):

 

CF - Santana 49%, league average 53%.

RF - Santana 41%, league average 50%.

LF - Santana 40%, league average 46%.

SS - Santana 100%, league average 89%.

3B - Santana 83%, league average 87%

2B - Santana null%, league average 92% (1 game, 0 balls hit to his zone)'

 

So, I dove into this stat I never heard of, cause hey.  I like learning new things.  Here is what I found:

 

F20% means Field To Out ratio.  So, like fielding % really, with a fancy name.

It is part of an equation to form a bigger stat to be looked at (the other part being Revised Zone Rating which attempts to measure range)

 

That bigger stat that is formed is only one part (z-outs) of three parts (z-outs, z-range and z-fielding) to create an even larger stat: zdefense. zdefense is fairly new and as far as I can tell, isn't anywhere near accepted. I can't find it, honestly, on the Fangraphs site other than the primer talking about it.

 

It's one guys recent attempt at creating something like his own UZR (with a different name but to do the same overall thing by different measures) in an overall attempt to create something like his own WAR (Which he calls PEACE: Player Evaluator and Calculated Expectancy).

 

In any event, F2O% by itself doesn't tell you much of anything. Even combined with RZR it barely tells you anything.  I have never seen anyone look at someone's F2O% by itself to determine overall fielding ability.  Never heard it quoted or mentioned when talking defense anywhere but here, by one person.  It looks like it's akin to determining OBP by looking at only HBP. 

 

I will say, I found the research into this interesting.  Even though I wouldn't feel comfortable using F20% to determine a players defensive prowess, I'd like to thank Doomtints for using the partial stat and making me curious enough to look it up.

 

 

 

 .

[Doomtints]

Glad to help.  Learning about new baseball metrics is always fun.

 

F20% rolls up into a few of the newer defensive stats.  It's a great thing to look at to avoid the small sample size issue with defensive stats.  When the sample size is adequate, using Total Zone or UZR metrics is good enough.  

[jimmer]

 

Glad to help.  Learning about new baseball metrics is always fun.

 

F20% rolls up into a few of the newer defensive stats.  It's a great thing to look at to avoid the small sample size issue with defensive stats.  When the sample size is adequate, using Total Zone or UZR metrics is good enough.  

Like I said, looks very much like fielding %, with a new label, and is only part of one stat which is only 1/3 of a a stat that may tell you something.  It even says you have to combine it with RZR to give it any kind of meaning and to be even one third of a part of what the goal is: to determine defense.

 

I'm glad you like it, but I don't put much value in it by itself.  Again, the research was fun, though.

[Doomtints]

 

Like I said, looks very much like fielding %, with a new label, and is only part of one stat which is only 1/3 of a a stat that may tell you something.  It even says you have to combine it with RZR to give it any kind of meaning and to be even one third of a part of what the goal is: to determine defense.

 

I'm glad you like it, but I don't put much value in it by itself.  Again, the research was fun, though.

 

It's more than that.  It's balls-hit-that-direction-that-resulted-in-outs.  So it's FP% plus zone defense plus catching baserunners, with double plays and fielder's choices thrown in for fun.  

 

Though the specific formula for UZR is secret knowledge (do you know the formula?), I strongly suspect F2O% is a factor.  This means it's factored into fWAR as well.  The zdefense guy is using it and getting similar numbers to UZR.