Pat Dean love...and are things begining to finally change?

[DocBauer]

First, props to Pat Dean. I don't know what his future is, or if he even has one at the ML level or not, but after all the angst and debate about him even being on the 40 man roster, no matter what happens down the road, he deserves some props for the moment.

 

He may be another Albers, a guy who others don't know much about and simply gets lucky for a stretch, or maybe a surprise mystery man, but his last start was a thing of beauty. (I didn't follow the game thread in his last start, so maybe he's already received a little love here at TD) But pitched an outstanding game his last start. It was soooo much fun to watch! His stuff is not special, but he's been solid in his brief tenure, and he was ON his last start. He mixed his pitches, hit his spots, worked in and out, up and down, and maybe pitched the best game for the Twins so far in this frustrating and disappointing season.

 

But I find really interesting lately is the decisions the team is making in regard to its construction. And I'm wondering if we may actually be seeing the shift in construction that we've all been calling for.

 

Now make no mistake, I'm NOT defending Ryan here, nor am I stating the the Twins are done with anything. But in subtle ways, it looks like a change in approach MAY be happening.

 

Examples: (and bear with me here)

 

*Mastroianni was brought up for speed and defense off the bench so Buxton could get in his AAA time to find his center. And it appears to be paying off.

 

* Rosario was sent down for similar AAA time, which he needs, and has been better as of late.

 

* Kepler has been looking good before his recent injury. Hopefully he's back soon.

 

* The Grossman signing has been met with much debate. Deservedly so. But, he's only 26, a switch hitter with some ability and a solid milb history, and has actually helped provide a bit of a lift. No rose colored glasses here, and I'm not saying we got really lucky and found a really nice piece for the future...which teams, including the Twins, do find from time to time...but maybe we found a solid, still young, bench piece. In the short term, he's provided a decent option to allow Buxton, Kepler and Rosario to get the previously mentioned AAA time.

 

* While inconsistent to be sure, Pressly, Tonkin and Rogers have been, and still are, part of the pen.

 

* Duffey is back and has been largely the pitcher saw last year.

 

* Dean has gotten a shot, looked decent thus far, and apparently will stick. At least for now.

 

* Centeno, no super prospect to be sure, has played well behind the plate, and done OK at the plate. And he's been taking time away from Suzuki. We may have actually stumbled on a decent backup catcher....long term.

 

* Despite his contract, service time, and previous speculation regarding veteran players having "scholarships", Hughes is being moved to the bullpen with Gibson coming back.

 

If you step back for a moment, and put aside all the frustration with this season, management decisions, the lack of time for youngsters when they were brought up, it does seem to me there is a shift in philosophy taking place. Now, there is TON of heavy lifting to be done yet.

 

Nolasco still needs to ge. Plouffe needs to go. IF someone could find use and value for Suzuki, maybe due to injury, he needs to go. I don't know if there is any hope to move Jepsen, or Perkins if he can ever get on the field eventually, but same thing there. Unless Hughes suddenly finds himself, SP or RP, we are probably stuck. But at least we are making some kind of necessary move with him. Dozier is a big question mark as a trade option, for various reasons, but should be considered at least.

 

At some point...let's just say July 1st as a proposed date...Buxton will need to back up. Possibly Kepler and Rosario as well. Maybe Polanco, which I'd like to see, but he's spent half the year rotting on the bench. Beresford and Vargas? Maybe. Berrios? With any reclaiming of his previous excellent control. Chargois, definately.

 

The Pohlad's aren't happy. Ryan has stated this fact, has alluded to their unhappiness with the season and the job he has done, and his needed to show and prove something. And now, maybe, we've been seeing the start of change. The start of a plan.

 

Call me crazy if you will, and you probably will, but it feels to me as though a "begining" has actually been happening.

[ashbury]

Aside from Duffey, all the moves you listed in bullet items, as having occurred and actually on the 25-man roster, strike me as arranging the role players. Mainstays are what's missing for the most part.

 

The callup today of Buxton qualifies as part of the bigger picture of course.

[Winston Smith]

Sorry but I don't see much of a plan just a bunch of shuffling.

[Badsmerf]

Just remember Cole devries happened.

[70charger]

I'm going to own up to throwing some shade Dean's way on a game thread back when he had just come up. He has proven me wrong so far. So mea culpa.

 

On the other hand, maybe that's the key: underestimate him so he plays angry.

[DocBauer]

Again, who knows what we really have in Dean. But thus far, he's actually looked like a ML pitcher, SSS sure. But one of the things the announcers brought up in his last start was how he went back to drawing board after a poor previous season. And his '15 season was solid, as was the start of this season.

 

(I'm not so sure Wheeler isn't doing the same thing this year)

 

But some of the optomism I'm feeling that the FO may actually be re-directing their energy and efforts...as I brought up in the first part of my post...is that even with Gibson coming back, and the Hughes move to the pen, there wasn't the typical knee-Jerk reaction to recycle a veteran and bring Milton back up.

 

Now, of course, if Berrios can get back in his typical and expected groove, and our rotation can consist of Santana, Gibson, Duffey, Berrios and Dean-Wheeler-Meyer-May, I'll REALLY feel like we're looking to the future.

[Thrylos]

 

Nolasco still needs to go.

 

Why is that?  Has been pretty much the best starter this season (and not that this says much.)

If it is because of rebuilding, Santana and Hughes got to go too...  (and I am not opposed at all..)

[Mr. Brooks]

Pat Dean's future is most likely that of AAAA depth.

 

Small sample size works both ways guys, not just when someone is struggling.

 

The tiny bit of MLB innings he's thrown thus far are statistically meaningless.

 

Remember Scott Diamond?

[Twinfan & Dad]

Who would you rather see on the mound Dean,Nolasco,Milone,Hughes? I'll go with Dean we know what we have with the The other 3.

[Thrylos]

 

Pat Dean's future is most likely that of AAAA depth.

Small sample size works both ways guys, not just when someone is struggling.

The tiny bit of MLB innings he's thrown thus far are statistically meaningless.

Remember Scott Diamond?

 

Pat Dean is striking people out at twice the Scott Diamond rate.  SSS and all.  Hope it continues, but so far Dean > Diamond's peak

 

[Mr. Brooks]

Pat Dean is striking people out at twice the Scott Diamond rate. SSS and all. Hope it continues, but so far Dean > Diamond's peak

Diamond had a far better milb k/9 than Dean.

It's not just SSS, it's so small it means nothing at all.

 

Maybe he's a late bloomer, that would be great. But, the odds are very high that he is AAAA depth at best. I'd rather see May get the starts.

[Rosterman]

Occasionally you may find a diamond in the rough. Tyler Duffey may still fall in that category. But consider - you get a chance to be in the major leagues. You make the most of that opportunity. Depending on your overall skill set, it is a hard road to get to the majors and harder yet to stay there. You have to work hard constantly. You will have to make adjustments. But you are evaluated by everyone, be it your own team or others.

 

A lot of times you can make a team by being depth. Colabello was one such signing. He was backup, he made the most of his chances, avoided going abroad, and besides his problem this year is making the most of his chances.

 

The scary part if what happens, at times, to players once they get that longterm contract or financial stability. Or if they aren't playing for their next contract, be it a one-year deal of longterm that will set them up for life.

 

You have two types of players: Those that the organization are truly behind all-the-way and will give them every chance to fail. Players a team has money invested in via a draft, or trades, usually.T

 

Then you have the guys who ALL have a few things that need to be twerked. You hope that the hunger is there. And there are jobs in the majors for guys to fill holes, be on the bench, be that first callup, that middle bullpen or end of the rotation starter...sometimes it is a one year gig, sometimes a tad more.

 

Kudos to Pat Dean. But every start is putting him on the bubble of staying in a rotation that he wasn't in the longterm outlook to be a part of. If he gets pushed aside, then can he make an adjustment to long relief. And with all the stuff, how long before the film and charts cause a team to catch onto your skill set.

 

It is a tough job being a major league ballplayer. 

[DocBauer]

Why is that?  Has been pretty much the best starter this season (and not that this says much.)

If it is because of rebuilding, Santana and Hughes got to go too...  (and I am not opposed at all..)

He needs to go because of fit.

 

I suppose, ultimately, a decent start, and a lul, before pitching better again recently, he MAY actually raise his value for some trade value.

 

I wasn't opposed to his signing initially. Though he, Hughes AND Santana was a bit much and misguided.

 

Nolasco needs to go because of the future. And I DO believe there is still a future here. Duffey is where he should be. I like Gibson. Santana is solid and provides a veteran influence, which can be a quality consideration. At some point, Berrios will be back. Hopefully soon. This leaves one more spot for Dean, or Wheeler, or Meyer, or May. But you need an open spot for this to happen.

 

Traded or released, Nolasco needs to go for the future development for the team.

[Twinfan & Dad]

Let's hope Nolasco pitches well,Plouffe and Dozier and even Suzuki hit a little so we can trade them all. I agree Santana can be a solid veteran influence but if he pitches well and a contender offers value, we need to move him too.

[old nurse]

One would think that there would be enough scouting done by teams in the minor leagues to know what Dean throws so that coming to the majors it is no shock as to how and what he throws.

There really isn't a comparison in Dean  to Albers as Albers never really struck out anyone at the major league level. He had 2 games in before teams were prepared.  Dean has not faced any teams so far out of the race they do not care (Atlanta, Cincinnati come to mind) so every game has mattered a little bit to the opposing teams.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Pat Dean's future is most likely that of AAAA depth.

Small sample size works both ways guys, not just when someone is struggling.

The tiny bit of MLB innings he's thrown thus far are statistically meaningless.

Remember Scott Diamond?

 

Wholeheartedly agree on AAAA depth.  It's always good to have a guy like that on the 40 man (and another not on it).  Teams need to shuffle pitchers regularly due to injuries.  Having a guy like that who can come up and hold his own in a small sample is valuable.  If you're really lucky, a team desperate for MLB ready pitching trades a B-/C+ prospect to get him.

[Eris]

On Pat Dean.  My thoughts on watching him pitch is to question whether MLB scouting has become too reliant on velocity. (It is easy to measure).  I get that more velocity increases the margin for error.  But Jepsen throws 95-96.  Graham 97, Jim Hoey was up there as well.  

 

Could someone like Greg Maddux make it in todays MLB world?  

[sorney]

 

On Pat Dean.  My thoughts on watching him pitch is to question whether MLB scouting has become too reliant on velocity. (It is easy to measure).  I get that more velocity increases the margin for error.  But Jepsen throws 95-96.  Graham 97, Jim Hoey was up there as well.  

 

Could someone like Greg Maddux make it in todays MLB world?  

I think those type of pitchers (remember, Maddux threw in the 90's early in his career) absolutely can make it.  Pitching is about changing the batters eye level, and timing.  If you can do that, you'll get swing and misses...which has been pretty much the one constant of successful pitchers (albeit there are always exceptions).  You don't need to throw 95+ to make that happen.  I think the guys that throw 95+ are just giving the longer leashes.....

[Platoon]

There has been a small change in direction. Seismic? No. But a tweak. The Hughes thing would never have happened before. Let's see what they do with Kepler. I am not sure he is ready, but if he is here, play him, or send him back and put anyone out there. I seldom agree with Ryan, but no matter what, him and Molitor need to get on the same page. If Ryan actually is going to start cutting loose the veteran drift wood, Molitor better quit managing like we are in the WS, in June!

[laloesch]

I'm skeptical of Dean.  If he continues like this by all means let him start, but a guy that throws mid 80's on his fastball at times?

[drivlikejehu]

Strange thread . . . zero explanation of how anything has changed. The Twins have always had some kind of pain threshold at which they would demote a player. It's a pure straw man to say they used to ignore player performance.

 

And Dean is a perfect example of how they stick with the same archetypes.

[laloesch]

 

Strange thread . . . zero explanation of how anything has changed. The Twins have always had some kind of pain threshold at which they would demote a player. It's a pure straw man to say they used to ignore player performance.

 

And Dean is a perfect example of how they stick with the same archetypes.

 

 

And a lack of understanding & development as the FO drafts more of these higher velocity / strikeout pitchers like May, Meyer, Berrios, Chargois and others.  The coaches lack of patience with these guys is stunning considering what it took to bring them into the fold.

 

I wonder if Molitor & Allen see these flame throwing pitchers and don't know what to do when they struggle with command and location.  They are so used to refined control pitchers it's probably a shock to them.  Right?  

 

That said, the future is not with Pat Dean, Matt Albers, Tommy Milone or Ricky Nolasco.   

[mikelink45]

Dean is just a young version of Milone and Milone was worth some wins.  Let him run out his string and hope it lasts a long time. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Dean is just a young version of Milone and Milone was worth some wins.  Let him run out his string and hope it lasts a long time. 

Actually, Milone is a lot more like a left-handed Kevin Slowey in some ways.  Dean appears to be something else.  Career minor league numbers:

 

Milone (mostly ages 21-24):  8.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

Slowey (mostly ages 21-23): 7.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9

Dean (ages 22-26): 10.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9

 

Milone's career AAA K/9 is 9.3.  Dean hasn't had a season K/9 above 5.2 since 2011.

 

Of course, given our present roster, it probably doesn't hurt too much to keeping running Dean out there while he's on a roll, although Trevor May deserves another starting look in this lost season before too long...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Now make no mistake, I'm NOT defending Ryan here, nor am I stating the the Twins are done with anything. But in subtle ways, it looks like a change in approach MAY be happening.

Examples: (and bear with me here)

*Mastroianni was brought up for speed and defense off the bench so Buxton could get in his AAA time to find his center. And it appears to be paying off.

* Rosario was sent down for similar AAA time, which he needs, and has been better as of late.

* Kepler has been looking good before his recent injury. Hopefully he's back soon.

* The Grossman signing has been met with much debate. Deservedly so. But, he's only 26, a switch hitter with some ability and a solid milb history, and has actually helped provide a bit of a lift. No rose colored glasses here, and I'm not saying we got really lucky and found a really nice piece for the future...which teams, including the Twins, do find from time to time...but maybe we found a solid, still young, bench piece. In the short term, he's provided a decent option to allow Buxton, Kepler and Rosario to get the previously mentioned AAA time.

* While inconsistent to be sure, Pressly, Tonkin and Rogers have been, and still are, part of the pen.

* Duffey is back and has been largely the pitcher saw last year.

* Dean has gotten a shot, looked decent thus far, and apparently will stick. At least for now.

* Centeno, no super prospect to be sure, has played well behind the plate, and done OK at the plate. And he's been taking time away from Suzuki. We may have actually stumbled on a decent backup catcher....long term.

* Despite his contract, service time, and previous speculation regarding veteran players having "scholarships", Hughes is being moved to the bullpen with Gibson coming back.

If you step back for a moment, and put aside all the frustration with this season, management decisions, the lack of time for youngsters when they were brought up, it does seem to me there is a shift in philosophy taking place.

Huh?

 

- Mastroianni and his kind have been up before

- Rosario is the latest in a long line of sophomore demotions (Danny Santana, Kennys Vargas, etc.)

- Kepler ??? -- he's back because we're short on outfielders again, remains to be seen if he will play

- Grossman is far from our first waiver claim outfielder (nor the first to have initial success, see Schafer and Fuld, even Clete Thomas posted a ~100 OPS+ for a month in 2013)

- Pressly and Tonkin have both been up quite often previously, and Rogers ??? -- we're pretty thin on relief pitching

- Duffey was up last year

- Dean is the latest in a long line of older low-ceiling AAA SP promotions (some of whom had solid short term results, like Pino, Albers, Devries, etc., and who can forget PJ Walters complete game, 8 strikeout victory in his third Twins start)

- Centeno is just the most recent low-ceiling potential backup catcher acquisition/promotion (Fryer, Butera, etc.), and since his recall he's only started 9 of 23 games, at least 3 of which are directly tied to a Suzuki injury

- Hughes to the bullpen is more about his health than his "scholarship" being revoked -- the player himself has publicly commented on his lack of stamina for a few weeks, moreover Hughes by far ranks the worst among qualified starters in pitches per GS

 

Given our current predicament, I endorse many of these moves, but for the life of me, I have no idea what you see in them to indicate any kind of larger change in approach or shift in management philosophy.

[alarp33]

 

Actually, Milone is a lot more like a left-handed Kevin Slowey in some ways.  Dean appears to be something else.  Career minor league numbers:

 

Milone (mostly ages 21-24):  8.7 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.3 K/9

Slowey (mostly ages 21-23): 7.0 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 1.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9

Dean (ages 22-26): 10.1 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.7 BB/9, 5.3 K/9

 

Milone's career AAA K/9 is 9.3.  Dean hasn't had a season K/9 above 5.2 since 2011.

 

 

I was just going to say, in what way are Dean and Milone similar, other than being left handed?

[d-mac]

 

Pat Dean is striking people out at twice the Scott Diamond rate.  SSS and all.  Hope it continues, but so far Dean > Diamond's peak

 

Dean has a 6.7% swinging strike rate. For comparison Milone has a career swinging strike rate of 8.3%, Kevin Correia has a career swinging strike rate of 7.1%, Scott Diamond has a career swinging strike rate of 6.4%, Cole DeVries had a swinging strike rate of 7.5%, Vance Worley has swinging strike rate of 5.6%, Andrew Albers has a swinging strike rate of 6.5%, and everybody's favorite- Nick Blackburn- had a swinging strike rate of 5.3%. 

 

So yeah, Dean is a AAAA pitcher at best in the AL. If he can limit walks and homeruns- he could be a #5 in the NL in a pitchers' park. 

[d-mac]

 

 

 

Then you have the guys who ALL have a few things that need to be twerked. You hope that the hunger is there. And there are jobs in the majors for guys to fill holes, be on the bench, be that first callup, that middle bullpen or end of the rotation starter...sometimes it is a one year gig, sometimes a tad more.

 

 

If they need to twerk, I just hope the players keep it off the field and in the clubhouse. 

[laloesch]

 

If they need to twerk, I just hope the players keep it off the field and in the clubhouse. 

 

Hmmmmm......... i wonder how that would effect attendance numbers, would Jim allow it?  

[Badsmerf]

The question now is how many starts did Dean earn with the initial success? I say 2 more like this and the gig is up. I wish May was pitching better.