Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Fangraphs (and other national publications) on the Twins

Mike Sixel

By Mike Sixel
in Minnesota Twins Talk

Recommended Posts

Oxtung First Round Pick

Oxtung

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

 

Bud Norris, Clayton Richard, Travis Wood.

 

 

So Norris started the year in the rotation, got kicked to long man, and then made spot starts later.

Richard was a bullpen piece that had to change orgs to start.

Wood was a reliever from day 1 in 2016. In 2015 he started the season in the rotation and was bounced to the pen in May (did make 2 starts in Sept).

Your examples pretty explicitly argue against the strategy you want to start the season employing.

 

That's exactly what I saw as well.  Starters that were moved to the bullpen, seemingly for good, that then made 1 or 2 spot starts before going back to the bullpen.  If there was a long term opening in the rotation it was filled by either trades, FA signings or prospects in both organizations. 

 

I would guess it is pretty hard on an arm to swap back to the rotation after an extended stay in the bullpen.  Especially if that is a veteran arm that can't go to the minors to build up arm strength prior to being inserted as a starter.

  • Replies 2.8k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
clutterheart First Round Pick

clutterheart

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

This thread used to be a great repository to read blurbs on the twins from national baseball writers - with the occasional pithy comment.

 

I liked it lots. Unfortunately it seems to be turning into something a bit more typical.

 

Sigh....nothing stays golden

Riverbrian Cooperstown

Riverbrian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

That's exactly what I saw as well.  Starters that were moved to the bullpen, seemingly for good, that then made 1 or 2 spot starts before going back to the bullpen.  If there was a long term opening in the rotation it was filled by either trades, FA signings or prospects in both organizations. 

 

I would guess it is pretty hard on an arm to swap back to the rotation after an extended stay in the bullpen.  Especially if that is a veteran arm that can't go to the minors to build up arm strength prior to being inserted as a starter.

 

Dylan Bundy spent the first half of last year in the bullpen before moving into the rotation on July 17. The Orioles did it on purpose to limit his innings. 

 

David Phelps was the primary set up guy for the Marlins before he was moved into the rotation in August out of necessity. He performed well in both roles. I'm pretty sure the Marlins strongly considered Phelps in the rotation in 2017 because he did so well as a starter but... in the end... they like the idea of an Andrew Miller type guy in the bullpen and they now see Phelps as that type of guy. 

 

Danny Duffy started in the bullpen and was moved to the rotation in late May. Duffy ended up being the top Pitcher for the Royals by far and one of the best starters in the American league period. 

 

Mike Montgomery was in the bullpen and performing real well for the Mariners when they asked him to join the rotation July 10th. He made two starts for the Mariners and was traded to the Cubs and he went back into the bullpen for a full month and 7 appearances and then tossed back into the rotation for 5 starts. Montgomery did well in both roles. I'm willing to bet... that Montgomery ends up back in the rotation in 2017 after Anderson gets his 400th injury. 

 

Chris Devenski bounced around a little for the Astros. I'm sure he will start in the bullpen in 2017 and will be called on to start at some point and he has the talent to remain a starter afterwards. 

 

The Indians have talent in that rotation but not a ton of depth... I'd be willing to bet they'd move Zach McAllister back into the rotation if necessity requires it and McAllister has the talent to stick.

 

I heard the Angels GM say they signed Petit for the bullpen because he can be moved into the rotation if needed.

 

Adam Warren could easily find his way into the Yankees rotation with the demise of one starter. 

 

Watch the Dodgers this year as they cleverly use the DL and bullpen to keep starters off waivers and hold depth. 

 

Is the argument

That it never happens?

That it never works? 

That the pitchers will be broken soon after? 

 

Just because there are only a few examples every year... it doesn't mean that it's a bad idea.  :)

d-mac First Round Pick

d-mac

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

 

 

In a world where Buxton was a top-20 prospect instead of a top-two prospect, or a world in which no one ranked prospects in numerical order, it’s totally plausible that Buxton’s first MLB reps might not have taken place until last last year. Buxton tore up Single-A in 2013, but he missed a ton of time in 2014 with injuries. Other than his two-week stint in the majors in June 2015, Buxton had recorded just 59 plate appearances above Double-A when he was called up in late August of that year. And even in 2016, Buxton had only 209 PA in Triple-A. Phrased differently, Buxton had compiled only 271 PA at Double-A and 268 PA at Triple-A in his entire career. Combined, that’s not even a full season of plate appearances in the minors above A-ball.

 

I think the Twins really screwed up Buxton by rushing him through the upper minors, especially with all of his injuries. Hopefully, his September was not a mirage and he has made an actual adjustment to be a competent hitter. But I doubt it. Rushing hitters with questionable hit tools through the upper minors rarely ever works out. 

Craig Arko Minnesota Twins

Craig Arko

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

This thread used to be a great repository to read blurbs on the twins from national baseball writers - with the occasional pithy comment.

I liked it lots. Unfortunately it seems to be turning into something a bit more typical.

Sigh....nothing stays golden

Only thing I can think to say to this probably best belongs in the politics threads.

70charger Ft Myers Mighty Mussels

70charger

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Here's an ESPN Deportes article about Eddie Rosario: Eddie Rosario en Silencio Hace Mucho Ruido, or "Eddie Rosario Silently Makes a lot of Noise." It's in Spanish, but I'm sure you can get it translated.

 

 

 

Rosario se ha destacado como una de las estrellas más brillantes del equipo boricua en este Clásico Mundial de Béisbol. En sus primeros tres partidos del torneo, el jardinero de los Mellizos de Minnesota conectó 6 hits en 11 turnos para un promedio de .545, incluidos dos dobles, un triple y tres carreras remolcadas.

Mientras las cámaras se enfocan en peloteros del calibre de Carlos Correa, Javier Báez, Francisco Lindor, Yadier Molina y Carlos Beltrán, Rosario ha sido igualmente integral para el inicio perfecto que ha tenido Puerto Rico

 

"Rosario has stood out as one of the brightest stars of the Puerto Rican team in this WBC. In his first three games of the tournament, the Minnesota Twins' outfielder* connected on six hits in 11 at-bats, for an average of .545, including two doubles, a triple, and three runs batted in.

 

While the cameras focus on players of the caliber of Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Francisco Lindor, Yadier Molina, and Carlos Beltran, Rosario has been equally integral to the perfect start that Puerto Rico has had."

 

Molitor also had some very complimentary words to say about Rosario to the ESPN reporter. He said Rosario is clutch, that he's exciting, and that he can beat you with his glove, his arm, his legs, and his bat.

 

 

*The Spanish word for outfielder is "jardinero," or gardener. I love that!

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Fort Knox: Where do you stand an Berrios? Top end pitcher or top end pitch tipper?

9:48
Paul Swydan: I don’t really stand in either place. I think he has a chance to be a good pitcher, but he’s got some work to do.

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: I lean top end

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: If given the choice

GP830 Draft Eligible

GP830

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Fort Knox: Where do you stand an Berrios? Top end pitcher or top end pitch tipper?

9:48
Paul Swydan: I don’t really stand in either place. I think he has a chance to be a good pitcher, but he’s got some work to do.

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: I lean top end

9:48
Jeff Zimmerman: If given the choice

Pitcher? Or Pitch Tipper? 

Vanimal46 GOAT

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Side note: Did Fangraphs change their WAR calculations? Or are they being extremely conservative with their projections? 

Seems kind of weird that Jose Altuve for example is only projected 4.3 WAR when he was damn near 7 WAR last year. 

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Side note: Did Fangraphs change their WAR calculations? Or are they being extremely conservative with their projections? 

Seems kind of weird that Jose Altuve for example is only projected 4.3 WAR when he was damn near 7 WAR last year. 

 

Regression to the mean....most of the outliers are projected to drop some, even a lot. Not sure I buy all of it...

Brock Beauchamp GOAT

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
Posted
Posted

 

Regression to the mean....most of the outliers are projected to drop some, even a lot. Not sure I buy all of it...

Yeah, projections tend to hedge their bets. Terrible players are projected to be bad, great players are projected to be good.

 

It works better in the aggregate than it does individually. The projections on Mike Trout over the years have been laughable, though the projection this season finally appears to accept that the guy is really, really good at baseball.

 

It only took half a decade to get to that point.

markos First Round Pick

markos

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

 

Regression to the mean....most of the outliers are projected to drop some, even a lot. Not sure I buy all of it...

Some of seemingly low numbers are due to being conservative about playing time.  This estimates every team will have 700 PAs at 2B, which isn't exactly true. Last year, the Twins ended up with 734. Some of it is lineup position and overall team OBP. Batting 3rd on a bad offense will have 5% fewer plate appearances than batting leadoff on a good offense. Also, some of it is a hedge for injuries - even a single short DL stint can cut a player's PAs by 10%.

Vanimal46 GOAT

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

That was a painful read. Even without hte typo

 

No doubt. They're down on the position league wide. I do think a lot of those players are going to blow those projections out of the water though. 

GP830 Draft Eligible

GP830

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

That was a painful read. Even without hte typo

It was like "Rosario has a lot of positive attributes. BUT- he's bad and won't have a job next year."

drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Some conversation from 538 on the AL Central:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/good-luck-al-central-cleveland-is-ready-for-another-world-series-run/?ex_cid=538twitter

 

The usual complaints about Ryan. But what really struck me is the consistency of the 4 predictive models. Averages out to 76 wins and 3rd place. The team, as constructed, certainly has a high beta of outcomes, it is very possible if the pitching holds up (which is a massive IF) that we are a little light on them.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

Twin Cities
1:39 Vargas or Park? Who gets most DH ab's this year?

 

Eno Sarris
1:39 They already DFA'ed Park and kept him, so I think Vargas gets first shot.

Taildragger8791 First Round Pick

Taildragger8791

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

 

Twin Cities
1:39 Vargas or Park? Who gets most DH ab's this year?

 

Eno Sarris
1:39 They already DFA'ed Park and kept him, so I think Vargas gets first shot.

 

Responses like that make me wonder how much he's actually paid attention to the Twins camp this year. Park has been the highlight of the team this spring, whereas Vargas was warming pine in the WBC for 2 weeks. Park has easily evened the competition and Vargas will have to show something this last week to keep his hold on the DH spot.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted

 

Responses like that make me wonder how much he's actually paid attention to the Twins camp this year. Park has been the highlight of the team this spring, whereas Vargas was warming pine in the WBC for 2 weeks. Park has easily evened the competition and Vargas will have to show something this last week to keep his hold on the DH spot.

 

Agreed. I just post 'em. Sometimes I comment on them...

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Go to topic listing
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund
The Twins Daily Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Twins community on the internet.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    20,605
    Total Members
    48,845
    Most Online
    JackWP76
    Newest Member
    JackWP76
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...