The Unbalanced Lineup

[stringer bell]

Jeez String

 

You pulled that right out of my head somehow because I lock step agree with you.

Great minds Bri.

[Riverbrian]

Because a sample of 1,000 is more indicative of future results than a sample of the most recent 50?

 

Unless you are Jose Bautista circa 2010r

Or

Justin Turner circa 2014

[Kwak]

None of you mentioned Molitor's line concerning "...what if the opponents have a nasty RH pitcher..", and that's why he wants Mauer batting third.  I laughed until I choked--because if they have that guy  the Twins are dead anyway, and wherever Mauer bats is irrelevant.  But I would bat Mauer first.

[alarp33]

 

Unless you are Jose Bautista circa 2010

 

Ha... you are comparing Bautista's breakout in 2010 to Escobar's August/September 2015 where he walked 15 times instead of his normal 7 times over 2 months?

 

[Riverbrian]

Ha... you are comparing Bautista's breakout in 2010 to Escobar's August/September 2015 where he walked 15 times instead of his normal 7 times over 2 months?

LOL... Yeah I know

 

But... Part of thing that makes baseball so beautiful. Sometimes the first 1,000 AB's have nothing to do with the next 1,000.

 

Lots of examples of players taking advantage of a starting spot and running with it. Probably more examples of it not happening but plenty of examples of it happening.

 

I fully admit using Bautista as an extreme example and it should be taken for what it's worth.

 

Long Live Baseball!!!

[gopherman23]

Vs. Righties

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Arcia

Dozier

Rosario

Plouffe

Escobar

Suzuki/Murphy

 

vs. Lefties

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Dozier

Plouffe

Escobar

Park

Rosario

Suzuki/Murphy

[Platoon]

Because a sample of 1,000 is more indicative of future results than a sample of the most recent 50?

 

To an extent I agree, but for example Dozier comes to mind. By the end of the last two years, he would not be my lead off guy anymore. He might get a chance the next year, but something was clearly amiss, and while I am definitely not a ride the hot hand guy, by Sept 1st I would ha pie had enough.

[USAFChief]

 

Unless you are Jose Bautista circa 2010r
Or
Justin Turner circa 2014

Or, everybody else, ever, except Jose Bautista circa 2010 or Justin Turner circa 2014...   

[Platoon]

I like Mauer in the 2 and I like Dozier in the middle of the lineup so I gotta put someone in the 1 and I'm running out of options because the Twins are just not currently OBP strong.

That's the only excuse I have.

You might have gotten to the crux of the Twins lineup problem. No one can consruct what most rationale people (like me) would consider a plausible lineup. The different pieces are not all there. It's like building garage out of nothing but 2x4's! It's all good wood, it will work, but it's not the normal way most people would do it.

[Teflon]

Batting orders are sort of an OCD thing. Aside from not making it too inviting to pitch around a good hitter and to limit the potential for too many consecutive lefty-lefty or righty-righty advantages when the opponent goes to the bullpen, the main consideration is really just to get your most productive hitters (runs created or OPS or whatever)  the most at-bats - not some order that produces a perfect 1 through 9 aesthetic. (The Twins scored just as many third and fourth inning runs as first inning runs last year.)

 

Sano needs to be in the top three. Mauer not in the top three. Go from there.

[Riverbrian]

You might have gotten to the crux of the Twins lineup problem. No one can consruct what most rationale people (like me) would consider a plausible lineup. The different pieces are not all there. It's like building garage out of nothing but 2x4's! It's all good wood, it will work, but it's not the normal way most people would do it.

I thought Garages just came with the house!

 

You mean... Something actually built them?

 

Just another example of why America is better than Canada.

[Blake]

 

I like Mauer in the 2 and I like Dozier in the middle of the lineup so I gotta put someone in the 1 and I'm running out of options because the Twins are just not currently OBP strong.

That's the only excuse I have.

Why not bat Mauer 3rd? His BA last year was woeful with no men on, but with RISP he was outstanding.

[Riverbrian]

Why not bat Mauer 3rd? His BA last year was woeful with no men on, but with RISP he was outstanding.

I love Joe.. So this isn't a Mauer knock but for these reasons.

 

1. I like a couple of good hitters in front of a guy who would be the best at clearing the bases. (Sano)

2. Joe's approach is perfect for the 2 spot... Patient... Good contact... Opposite way ability for the hit and run.

3. Joe will hit a little bit more

4. Joe has two kids

5. Joe wants to hit 3 and we pay enough that he shouldn't get his way.

6. With his blurry vision he won't be able to tell the difference between a 2 and 3 on the lineup card

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Evidence that protection exists?

It definitely exists, though frequency is certainly in question.

 

Example: Late in the game. One run lead. Man on second base, two outs. Dozier at the plate.

 

Situation 1: Sano hits behind Dozier. You pitch to Dozier every time, sphincter tightly clenched.

 

Situation 2: Kurt Suzuki hits behind Dozier. You walk Dozier every time (maybe not every time but you at least consider walking him).

 

Obviously, there are varying degrees to how much you pitch at or around Dozier based on situation and the hitter following Brian... But it's hard to argue whether protection matters, at least a little.

 

With that said, it's not something I'd worry about too much. It's more of a late & close issue, I think... And a good team should have at least one bench guy to counter any pitching decision.

[Willihammer]

That is just baseball though. The game is way too dynamic to plan for those situations before a pitch has even been thrown. The only thing you can take to the bank is that the guys at the top of the order will bat more than the guys at the bottom.

[Platoon]

It definitely exists, though frequency is certainly in question.

 

Example: Late in the game. One run lead. Man on second base, two outs. Dozier at the plate.

 

Situation 1: Sano hits behind Dozier. You pitch to Dozier every time, sphincter tightly clenched.

 

Situation 2: Kurt Suzuki hits behind Dozier. You walk Dozier every time (maybe not every time but you at least consider walking him).

 

Obviously, there are varying degrees to how much you pitch at or around Dozier based on situation and the hitter following Brian... But it's hard to argue whether protection matters, at least a little.

 

With that said, it's not something I'd worry about too much. It's more of a late & close issue, I think... And a good team should have at least one bench guy to counter any pitching decision.

Situation 1. This descriptive might have exceeded my imaginative powers as they relate to baseball!

[Willihammer]

 

I love Joe.. So this isn't a Mauer knock but for these reasons.

1. I like a couple of good hitters in front of a guy who would be the best at clearing the bases. (Sano)
2. Joe's approach is perfect for the 2 spot... Patient... Good contact... Opposite way ability for the hit and run.
3. Joe will hit a little bit more
4. Joe has two kids
5. Joe wants to hit 3 and we pay enough that he shouldn't get his way.
6. With his blurry vision he won't be able to tell the difference between a 2 and 3 on the lineup card

1. Every spot you drop Sano in the lineup costs 18 PAs over the course of a season. That probably doesn't amount to more than 1/10 of a win but it is a cost.

 

2. Joe can move the 6 hitter over as easily as the leadoff guy

 

3. Do we want Joe getting the 2nd most PAs on the team?

 

4. Joe has two kids, but he wears no. 7.

[Blake]

 

I love Joe.. So this isn't a Mauer knock but for these reasons.

1. I like a couple of good hitters in front of a guy who would be the best at clearing the bases. (Sano)
2. Joe's approach is perfect for the 2 spot... Patient... Good contact... Opposite way ability for the hit and run.
3. Joe will hit a little bit more
4. Joe has two kids
5. Joe wants to hit 3 and we pay enough that he shouldn't get his way.
6. With his blurry vision he won't be able to tell the difference between a 2 and 3 on the lineup card

Are you replying to my question or working on topics for gameday threads? 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

If we want players with high OBP, we should have kept Pelfrey. He let the team last year at 0.667...

 

In all seriousness, I want Buxton to lead off. I just think he'll do best there.

 

Buxton, cf

Dozier, 2b

Sano, rf

Park, dh (I believe in his ability)

Mauer, 1b

Plouffe, 3b

Rosario, lf

Escobar, ss

Suzuki, ca

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

Being right heavy has skewed their splits the last few years. We just werent that good against righties. Sure, we will punish lefties, but we won't see them nearly as often.

 

I think this could be an issue for the offense. It's why I'm Arcia's biggest fan this spring.

[Riverbrian]

Are you replying to my question or working on topics for gameday threads?

 

April will be here soon... Gotta get ready.

 

I don't have a calender but it can't be far off because my wife was recently disappointed on Valentine's Day again.

[Dr. Evil]

If the outfield is as such, you have plenty of righty/lefty batting order flexibility. Plus, Kepler can play first base sometimes against righties. Santana can also play SS or 2B. Also, you have no defensive liabilities to hide.

 

Buxton R

Kepler L

Rosario L

Santana SW

 

Kepler = all star minor leaguer last year. Arcia was utterly a mess. Who's closer to MLB ready?

 

Stick Sano at 3B where he belongs and bring Plouffe off the bench. I guarantee that all the extra outs that Kepler reels in in the outfield are more than the difference in errors between Plouffe and Sano at the hot corner. Plus, Sano is a cornerstone player. Plouffe can be a bench bat if we can't trade him.

 

Make Polanco your utility SS/2B. Switch hitter and a pretty good hitter off the bench. Plouffe can back up at 3B. Lastly, maybe keep Vargas as another bench bat/left handed option.

 

At any rate, that's how I look at it. A roster like this-

 

ROSARIO L

BUXTON R

KEPLER L

SANTANA SW

SANO R

PLOUFFE R

MAUER L

PARK R

DOZIER R

ESCOBAR SW

MURPHY R

SUZUKI R

VARGAS L

POLANCO SW

[Blake]

 

April will be here soon... Gotta get ready.

I don't have a calender but it can't be far off because my wife was recently disappointed on Valentine's Day again.

I was hoping you were answering my question, because I was all set to steal some of your ideas.

 

Ah well.

[gopherman23]

If the outfield is as such, you have plenty of righty/lefty batting order flexibility. Plus, Kepler can play first base sometimes against righties. Santana can also play SS or 2B. Also, you have no defensive liabilities to hide.

 

Buxton R

Kepler L

Rosario L

Santana SW

 

Kepler = all star minor leaguer last year. Arcia was utterly a mess. Who's closer to MLB ready?

 

Stick Sano at 3B where he belongs and bring Plouffe off the bench. I guarantee that all the extra outs that Kepler reels in in the outfield are more than the difference in errors between Plouffe and Sano at the hot corner. Plus, Sano is a cornerstone player. Plouffe can be a bench bat if we can't trade him.

 

Make Polanco your utility SS/2B. Switch hitter and a pretty good hitter off the bench. Plouffe can back up at 3B. Lastly, maybe keep Vargas as another bench bat/left handed option.

 

At any rate, that's how I look at it. A roster like this-

 

ROSARIO L

BUXTON R

KEPLER L

SANTANA SW

SANO R

PLOUFFE R

MAUER L

PARK R

DOZIER R

ESCOBAR SW

MURPHY R

SUZUKI R

VARGAS L

POLANCO SW

Arcia had a bad August and September. He mashed in July. You are willing to just cut him for a month and a half of bad play? He hasn't even turned 25 yet. It would be terrible asset management.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That is just baseball though. The game is way too dynamic to plan for those situations before a pitch has even been thrown. The only thing you can take to the bank is that the guys at the top of the order will bat more than the guys at the bottom.

Sure, stack your best guys at the top of the order but "best" hitter isn't my top priority... Ideally, you want the low power, high OBP guys in front of the high SLG guys, even though the SLG guys are likely your "best" hitters.

[DocBauer]

Some great points up and down the board. Special shout out to Steve, River and Stringer. To me, ideally, I subscribe to the top 2 guys being quality OB guys with some pop and good to really good speed. I want them to be OB, but also be a threat to score on a single. That's what speed and XB pop provides.

 

I still believe in OB and best overall hitter in the 3 spot, stacking the lineup at 4,5 and maybe 6 with best power/RBI threats, as long as they aren't power only. (Bad hit tool)

 

I've learned to appreciate the better 9 hole hitter to turn over the lineup, but it really does depend on your lineup depth.

 

Back in the day, Brian Downing had zero speed, but he had power, OB and hit ability as a leadoff man for the Angels. Vince Coleman had zero power and wasn't the world's greatest hitter or OB guys...if I recall correctly...but he put tremendous pressure on the opposition with his speed and SB ability. So it's not just "how do you construct" but very much what do you have, and how will you use it.

[DocBauer]

There was a ML manager some years ago, can't recall now who, that used a very unique lineup while managing in the minors. The way his team was set up, he didn't have a ton of power, but he had some nice interchangeable and somewhat similar pieces. So he set up a 1-2-3, 1-2-3, 1-2-3 lineup.

 

Just a fun FYI if anyone can recall who this was.

[Halsey Hall]

Yogi?  Couldn't count to 4?

[Ronald Zimmerman]

I like Dozier at the top of the lineup, he can take a walk he can jerk the ball over the LF fence, he can steal a base and I think he will do a better job using the whole field this year. I think he keeps the defense thinking with all he can do. I think he can also pick up some more base hits laying the ball down and I think Mauer should be in the #2 hole and he needs to keep up his high OBP. Think Joe is in his 3rd year removed from the heavy concussion symptons. Would like to see Park or Sano as #3, whichever makes the other guy the #4 hitter, followed by Rosario, Plouffe, Buxton, Escobar and Suzuki or Murphy.

[Thrylos]

 

Not a lot of left-handed bats in 1987. They managed.

 

I'd take Hrbie, Bush and Smalley (the last 2 killed RHP) over 2015 Mauer and Rosario any day...