The Unbalanced Lineup

[Thrylos]

 

Eduardo Escobar has a career obp of .303. 

 

You do realize that Escobar had a higher OBP than Dozier, Rozario, Plouffe and a few more last season, right?

And what Escobar did as a 22 year old is as relevant for the 2016 Twins as what Mauer did when he hit 28 HRs in the Dome.  Career numbers do not extrapolate...

[Dr. Evil]

Arcia had a bad August and September. He mashed in July. You are willing to just cut him for a month and a half of bad play? He hasn't even turned 25 yet. It would be terrible asset management.

Yea I understand what you are sayin. I'm not gunna say I'm right or you are wrong. That's just how I would do it.

[DocBauer]

You do realize that Escobar had a higher OBP than Dozier, Rozario, Plouffe and a few more last season, right?

 

And what Escobar did as a 22 year old is as relevant for the 2016 Twins as what Mauer did when he hit 28 HRs in the Dome.  Career numbers do not extrapolate...

There is no question that Buxton is a huge key for this team. And not just because of tremendous defense and tremendous potential. Even if he would take a year or two to really reach his potential, he would still be a huge asset and provide a legitimate leadoff option even with a .280/.340-ish Avg/OB with 30+ doubles and a mix of triples and homers. (Not to mention 30 SB) A star he may be, but just a nice ballplayer is also an immediate boon.

 

But I find the Escobar debate to be very interesting. I absolutely think Dozier can, and has, shown himself to be very effective at the top of the order. But I think he'd be even more effective lower in the lineup...echoing the belief of many here. But I amay very intrigued with the idea of Mauer providing a different look in the middle of the lineup in the 5 hole. He breaks up the RH run, usually makes decent contact and usually has a decent OB. (Even the "deficient" Mauer of last season) He's also always had at least decent gapper power. That would leave Escobar as the best choice to hit 2 on a daily basis. Not a speed demon, he runs well. He has shown the ability to hit and provide some pop. While questions remain about his "standard" and potential, when given the outright SS job, he has flat out performed. And as has been stated, it's not important what he did in the minors, or as a seldom used, early promoted utility player for the ChiSox. Whats important is what he's done the past couple of years, and what he is capable of doing this season. If the EE from the past two seasons shows up, I'd really like to see something like:

 

1 Buxton

2 Escobar #

3 Sano

4 Park

5 Mauer *

6 Plouffe

7 Dozier

8 Rosario *

9 Murphy

[gopherman23]

Even with blurred vision, Mauer had the second best OBP on the team, yet people want to move him down in the lineup. I would agree if we had better options, but we currently do not.

[Platoon]

There is no question that Buxton is a huge key for this team. And not just because of tremendous defense and tremendous potential. Even if he would take a year or two to really reach his potential, he would still be a huge asset and provide a legitimate leadoff option even with a .280/.340-ish Avg/OB with 30+ doubles and a mix of triples and homers. (Not to mention 30 SB) A star he may be, but just a nice ballplayer is also an immediate boon.

But I find the Escobar debate to be very interesting. I absolutely think Dozier can, and has, shown himself to be very effective at the top of the order. But I think he'd be even more effective lower in the lineup...echoing the belief of many here. But I amay very intrigued with the idea of Mauer providing a different look in the middle of the lineup in the 5 hole. He breaks up the RH run, usually makes decent contact and usually has a decent OB. (Even the "deficient" Mauer of last season) He's also always had at least decent gapper power. That would leave Escobar as the best choice to hit 2 on a daily basis. Not a speed demon, he runs well. He has shown the ability to hit and provide some pop. While questions remain about his "standard" and potential, when given the outright SS job, he has flat out performed. And as has been stated, it's not important what he did in the minors, or as a seldom used, early promoted utility player for the ChiSox. Whats important is what he's done the past couple of years, and what he is capable of doing this season. If the EE from the past two seasons shows up, I'd really like to see something like:

1 Buxton

2 Escobar #

3 Sano

4 Park

5 Mauer *

6 Plouffe

7 Dozier

8 Rosario *

9 Murphy

You might have hit on the July lineup. Or close to it. It's never going to be the April one. Even if Buxton comes north, it wont be in the #1 hole, Murphy is already slated for a sub position, and there is more likelihood that Arcia will succeed than Park, at least originally. Molly will never move Dozier to #7 this spring. But that's this spring! With the exception of Park, your in the park for July.

[alarp33]

 

You do realize that Escobar had a higher OBP than Dozier, Rozario, Plouffe and a few more last season, right?

And what Escobar did as a 22 year old is as relevant for the 2016 Twins as what Mauer did when he hit 28 HRs in the Dome.  Career numbers do not extrapolate...

 

Yes, I do realize that. His obp skyrocketed to all of .309 last year. I'm sorry, he's not a leadoff hitter. Again, look at his bb%.  He's a good SS, he doesn't walk enough to be my leadoff hitter.  Hence, why I put Mauer there.  

 

I wouldn't bat Rosario or Plouffe leadoff either, I'm not sure why their numbers are relevant to this?

 

Is this the Gardy crowd thinking middle infielders need to be top of the order? I really don't get where the "Escobar should leadoff" crowd is coming from.  Him hitting 7th isn't a slight at all

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

 

As recently as 2014, Dozier was a good option as a lead-off guy. His OBP was .345 and he saw plenty of pitches (almost 90 walks). IIRC, his OBP was pretty much the same for the first half and second half of that year.

...

I think that the Twins' lineup leans a bit too much right, but more that they have too many guys who get respectable OPS from power numbers and don't have enough OBP guys. A Mauer comeback would help both problems appreciably, as would finding at-bats for Max Kepler.

 

This is my memory, I haven't looked it up, but didn't the Twins as a team walk quite a bit more in 2014 than in '15? I remember several players crediting Brunansky and Molitor for stressing plate approach at that time. Has anyone looked into a trend down into last season, or am I making it up?

[alarp33]

 

This is my memory, I haven't looked it up, but didn't the Twins as a team walk quite a bit more in 2014 than in '15? I remember several players crediting Brunansky and Molitor for stressing plate approach at that time. Has anyone looked into a trend down into last season, or am I making it up?

 

You are correct. They went from 5th to 15th in the American League in OBP from 2014 to 2015.  .324 to .305

[Blackjack]

By the time they've batted a few innings, it doesn't really matter who your lead-off hitter is, he only leads off once.  Put your best batters as far up the line up as possible so over the long haul so they get the most at bats.

 

I'd go Dozier, Mauer, Sano, Plouffe, Park/Arcia, Rosario, Suzuki, Esocbar, Buxton. 

 

Do whats best for Buxton, leave him at the bottom of the order all year, let him gain the confidence of sustained success.  He'll have plenty of years to bat lead off. 

 

As far as Mauer goes, even a sub-par Mauer is better than most of the other Twins hitters, until that changes, he stays at the top of the line-up.

[Willihammer]

 

Sure, stack your best guys at the top of the order but "best" hitter isn't my top priority... Ideally, you want the low power, high OBP guys in front of the high SLG guys, even though the SLG guys are likely your "best" hitters.

Yeah. When the decision is between two equivalent batters, put the OBP guy first. Plouffe before Rosario, for example.

 

Back to the question of protection for a second. The "protection" theory really reduces to "have good hitters in your lineup." Of course adding Prince Fielder to bat  behind Miguel Cabrera helped the Tigers to score a bunch of runs. Prince Fielder is a great hitter. But, Miguel Cabrera still finished with the 2nd most IBBs in both 2012 and 2013. Teams just brought in a LHP with a base open. Easy.

 

So as for protecting Sano, yes the Twins should "protect" him like they should get the best hitters they can find and stack them on the top of the order. But there are going to be games with a base open where teams are going to put him on, esp. if the guy behind him bats LH (as per the L-R-L-R theory). No amount of planning is going to stop that.

 

What we can plan for, is the situation where the game is on the line, and our best hitter is standing in the batters box, and not in the on deck circle.

[gocgo]

 

I'm struggling to think of any team that has a perfect lineup up and down.

In my opinion... The Twins lack an ideal lead off hitter until Buxton shows he can be that guy and that's it.

Mauer is a perfect 2 hitter

If Sano hits like he did last year... He will be one of the finest 3's in the league.

I think Park was signed to hopefully protect Sano so he goes into the 4... if he Does what we hope he can do.

Dozier should be a middle of the order guy so he goes 5

Plouffe 6... Rosario 7.... Murphy 8.

That leaves Escobar as the lead off and Buxton 9 until Buxton starts killing it and when Buxton starts doing that... You switch him and Escobar around and it's all good.

That's what I would do

I was good with everything except the "Mauer is the perfect 2 hitter" comment.  I think Joe hits into a ton of DP's and I don't recall him laying down any bunts to advance the runner.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I was good with everything except the "Mauer is the perfect 2 hitter" comment.  I think Joe hits into a ton of DP's and I don't recall him laying down any bunts to advance the runner.

Nooooooooo bunting. Not from the second guy in the lineup, anyway, and never before the eighth inning.

 

It's counter-productive to give away an out when the heart of the lineup is coming to the plate.

[Riverbrian]

I was good with everything except the "Mauer is the perfect 2 hitter" comment.  I think Joe hits into a ton of DP's and I don't recall him laying down any bunts to advance the runner.

I'll take it

 

I'm good with 8 out of 9

[alarp33]

 

I was good with everything except the "Mauer is the perfect 2 hitter" comment.  I think Joe hits into a ton of DP's and I don't recall him laying down any bunts to advance the runner.

 

If all it takes to be your perfect 2 hitter is not hitting into DP's and laying down Sac bunts, maybe we should look for a National League pitcher who we could slot into that spot in the lineup?

[dxpavelka]

 

 

 

****But again, I am not saying that Polanco is a better player, a better option or a more logical solution to Brian Dozier who is a very good baseball player.

Somebody's gotta have the balls to say it, so I will.

[gopherman23]

I like Dozier at the top of the lineup, he can take a walk he can jerk the ball over the LF fence, he can steal a base and I think he will do a better job using the whole field this year. I think he keeps the defense thinking with all he can do. I think he can also pick up some more base hits laying the ball down and I think Mauer should be in the #2 hole and he needs to keep up his high OBP. Think Joe is in his 3rd year removed from the heavy concussion symptons. Would like to see Park or Sano as #3, whichever makes the other guy the #4 hitter, followed by Rosario, Plouffe, Buxton, Escobar and Suzuki or Murphy.

Dozier is an extreme pull hitter. He is not all of a sudden going to start getting a bunch of opposite field hits. I like Dozier, just not at the top of the lineup. He is a low on base, power hitter. I hope Molitor realizes this and slots him anywhere 4-6.

[gocgo]

 

If all it takes to be your perfect 2 hitter is not hitting into DP's and laying down Sac bunts, maybe we should look for a National League pitcher who we could slot into that spot in the lineup?

It's not only that, but ideally you'd like your top 2 guys to have speed.  Joe's not that guy.

[gocgo]

In my perfect world...

Buxton leads off - might happen by year end, might not.

Rosario - would have to have a better contact rate and be more selective at the plate

Dozier

Sano

Park - IF he can hit ML pitching

Mauer - still has a good obp

Plouffe

Whatever catcher we have in

Esco - could be switched with Rosario if Rosario can't gain discipline

 

The reason I put Esco last is because I'd hate to have Buxton run up the back of either catcher and leave spike marks.

[alarp33]

 

It's not only that, but ideally you'd like your top 2 guys to have speed.  Joe's not that guy.

 

Ahhh gotcha.  So our top 2 guys in the lineup need to be fast, sacrifice bunters. 

[cmoss84]

 

In my perfect world...

Buxton leads off - might happen by year end, might not.

Rosario - would have to have a better contact rate and be more selective at the plate

Dozier

Sano

Park - IF he can hit ML pitching

Mauer - still has a good obp

Plouffe

Whatever catcher we have in

Esco - could be switched with Rosario if Rosario can't gain discipline

 

The reason I put Esco last is because I'd hate to have Buxton run up the back of either catcher and leave spike marks.

I have a lot of the same thoughts. Would love to see Buxton and Rosario at the top by the end of the year...a ton of speed and extra base potential. I wouldn't mind Dozier hitting cleanup though, and putting Park 6th so he doesn't have so much pressure on him his first year. Here's my end of the year lineup:

Buxton CF

Rosario LF

Sano RF

Dozier 2B

Mauer 1B

Park/Arcia DH platoon

Plouffe

Sukuki/Murphy C platoon

Escobar

 

[gocgo]

 

Ahhh gotcha.  So our top 2 guys in the lineup need to be fast, sacrifice bunters. 

I think you need to have the ability to sacrifice when called on.  The speed minimizes the opportunity for a DP so that you can get your guys that can put it out of the park up more and preferably with someone on base.

[gocgo]

 

I have a lot of the same thoughts. Would love to see Buxton and Rosario at the top by the end of the year...a ton of speed and extra base potential. I wouldn't mind Dozier hitting cleanup though, and putting Park 6th so he doesn't have so much pressure on him his first year. Here's my end of the year lineup:

Buxton CF

Rosario LF

Sano RF

Dozier 2B

Mauer 1B

Park/Arcia DH platoon

Plouffe

Sukuki/Murphy C platoon

Escobar

Yeah, Park really is the X factor isn't he.  We know that Buxton's speed can be game changing.  The rest of the guys, we pretty much know what we have (even Murphy), but Park and even Arcia are unknowns.  I wish I could predict what Arcia is going to bring this year and he's one that I'll be watching in ST closely.

[Boom Boom]

It's not only that, but ideally you'd like your top 2 guys to have speed. Joe's not that guy.

Ideally... and ideally you'd want your 3 hitter to have some more power.

 

It's not an ideal roster, though.

[Platoon]

I was good with everything except the "Mauer is the perfect 2 hitter" comment.  I think Joe hits into a ton of DP's and I don't recall him laying down any bunts to advance the runner.

If you have time to edit this, you better take out the bunt part! Bunts are not popular on TD!

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you have time to edit this, you better take out the bunt part! Bunts are not popular on TD!

For good reason. The way they're commonly implemented, they do more harm than good.

 

The problem isn't bunting, it's that too many MLB managers don't understand math.

[TwinsTerritory]

Park and Buxton (with Rosario not suffering a sophomore slump a distant 3rd) are absolutely the two biggest X-factors in this whole equation.  Having said that, Here are my April and July line-ups assuming the two of them are having success.

 

April

1. Dozier

2. Mauer

3. Sano

4. Plouffe

5. Park/Arcia

6. Rosario

7. Escobar

8. Suzuki/Murphy

9. Buxton

 

July

1. Buxton

2. Mauer

3. Sano

4. Plouffe

5. Dozier

6. Park/Arcia

7. Rosario

8. Murphy/Suzuki

9. Escobar