The Unbalanced Lineup

[Platoon]

Molitor touched on this the other day. With which media escapes me. To wit: Dozier should hit first but is not a one hitter, or a two hitter. Mauer is not really a three hitter, but if he doesn't hit three, Sano has to. Leaving Plouffe fourth, which he didn't like, and Park fifth wasn't his preference either. This Souhan article touches on the same issue to a certain extent. It's hard to imagine a team with such an unbalanced roster being a contender. It's easily as big an issue as the bullpen.

 

http://www.startribune.com/promising-twins-lineup-lacks-hitters-for-traditional-roles/369747141/

[Mike Sixel]

The Souhan article is based on number 3 hitter being your best hitter.......math shows that there is the TINIEST upside to that actually being your number 4 hitter.

 

I don't agree that the series of RH batters is a problem, in terms of how to use THIS group of players. That is the group to work with, artificially moving Mauer around to get a LH bat in there for the small number of times it will matter seems like a bad idea to me. 

 

What I liked about the article, though, is that it was a real baseball article w/o a bunch of hyperbole.....

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, the line up isn't ideal that's for sure. They can't put the guys who profile best for certain lineup spots AND keep the lefty/righty aspect balanced.

 

While he's not a better player, a decent Jorge Polanco with his switch hitting and decent OBP would be a much better fit for this team than Brian Dozier, and a Buxton/Polanco top of the order would fix the problem just like that.

 

****But again, I am not saying that Polanco is a better player, a better option or a more logical solution to Brian Dozier who is a very good baseball player.

[Craig Arko]

Not a lot of left-handed bats in 1987. They managed.

[Riverbrian]

I'm struggling to think of any team that has a perfect lineup up and down.

 

In my opinion... The Twins lack an ideal lead off hitter until Buxton shows he can be that guy and that's it.

 

Mauer is a perfect 2 hitter

 

If Sano hits like he did last year... He will be one of the finest 3's in the league.

 

I think Park was signed to hopefully protect Sano so he goes into the 4... if he Does what we hope he can do.

 

Dozier should be a middle of the order guy so he goes 5

 

Plouffe 6... Rosario 7.... Murphy 8.

 

That leaves Escobar as the lead off and Buxton 9 until Buxton starts killing it and when Buxton starts doing that... You switch him and Escobar around and it's all good.

 

That's what I would do

[alarp33]

 

I'm struggling to think of any team that has a perfect lineup up and down.

In my opinion... The Twins lack an ideal lead off hitter until Buxton shows he can be that guy and that's it.

Mauer is a perfect 2 hitter

If Sano hits like he did last year... He will be one of the finest 3's in the league.

I think Park was signed to hopefully protect Sano so he goes into the 4... if he Does what we hope he can do.

Dozier should be a middle of the order guy so he goes 5

Plouffe 6... Rosario 7.... Murphy 8.

That leaves Escobar as the lead off and Buxton 9 until Buxton starts killing it and when Buxton starts doing that... You switch him and Escobar around and it's all good.

That's what I would do

 

Eduardo Escobar has a career obp of .303.  

 

Opening day vs Gallardo or Tillman, I would go;

 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Arcia (DH)

Plouffe

Rosario

Escobar

Murphy (I know this will be Suzuki, but its my lineup!)

Buxton

[Riverbrian]

Eduardo Escobar has a career obp of .303.  

 

Opening day vs Gallardo or Tillman, I would go;

 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Arcia (DH)

Plouffe

Rosario

Escobar

Murphy (I know this will be Suzuki, but its my lineup!)

Buxton

I won't call for your head.... You can manage my team. But... I'm bummed because I'm dying to see Park.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Isn't lineup order overrated?  Hard to see how that's as big of an issue as the pen was last year.

 

Would be curious if a RHB heavy lineup really suffered much negative consequences.  I could easily see the effects of that being on par with the effects of lineup order, meaning minimal to none.  Any studies on the issue?

[nicksaviking]

Eduardo Escobar has a career obp of .303.  

 

Opening day vs Gallardo or Tillman, I would go;

 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Arcia (DH)

Plouffe

Rosario

Escobar

Murphy (I know this will be Suzuki, but its my lineup!)

Buxton

None of Escobar's numbers look great when looking at his career, but like the rest of his stats, his OBP was much better after getting the full time gig and was .330 in the second half last year. That's not spectacular, but if he can do that again, he's not a bad option for the top of the lineup.

[alarp33]

 

I won't call for your head.... You can manage my team. But... I'm bummed because I'm dying to see Park.

 

He certainly could prove me wrong in Spring, but until I see him, I think Arcia will be a better option vs RH pitchers.  

 

 

[Willihammer]

"Profiles" are dumb. Who's the best hitter? Give that guy the most AB's. And so on down the line.

[alarp33]

 

None of Escobar's numbers look great when looking at his career, but like the rest of his stats, his OBP was much better after getting the full time gig and was .330 in the second half last year. That's not spectacular, but if he can do that again, he's not a bad option for the top of the lineup.

 

With Mauer, Dozier, eventually Buxton as available options... I'm not seeing the need to try and force Escobar and his 6% BB rate into the leadoff spot.  

[nicksaviking]

 

With Mauer, Dozier, eventually Buxton as available options... I'm not seeing the need to try and force Escobar and his 6% BB rate into the leadoff spot.  

 

Still, your only looking at his career. The second half of last year, Escobar got on base better than Dozier and Buxton and he was clearly a better overall player than all three of those guys. If he plays like he did in last year's second half, why wouldn't he be considered a better fit? At least a better fit than the already OBP challenged Dozier.

[alarp33]

 

Still, your only looking at his career. The second half of last year, Escobar got on base better than Dozier and Buxton and he was clearly a better overall player than all three of those guys. If he plays like he did in last year's second half, why wouldn't he be considered a better fit? At least a better fit than the already OBP challenged Dozier.

 

Career is a more meaningful sample size than August and September of 2015.  Escobar never walked in the minors either for what its worth.  I'm an Escobar fan, I don't mean this to come off as bashing him, he's turned into a good player. I just don't think someone who takes so few walks qualifies as a leadoff hitter

 

Doziers BB% the last 3 years; 8.2%, 12.6%, 8.7%

[USAFChief]

Agree with posters above...the talent of the hitters is about a gozillion times more important than how you line 'em up.  Better hitters before worser hitters.  

 

 

 

 

[Platoon]

Agree with posters above...the talent of the hitters is about a gozillion times more important than how you line 'em up.  Better hitters before worser hitters.

 

I don't think it's quite that simple. Sano as lead off? . Lineup order matters. For example, hitting someone like Dozier behind Sano, will make Sano less successful. Hitting Sano behind Dozier would be a blessing for Dozier.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I don't think it's quite that simple. Sano as lead off? . Lineup order matters. For example, hitting someone like Dozier behind Sano, will make Sano less successful. Hitting Sano behind Dozier would be a blessing for Dozier.

 

Evidence that protection exists?

[gunnarthor]

I've mentioned this before but an article on HBT, i believe, studied lineup construction and they made a couple conclusions.

 

1) Lineup construction was massively over-rated.  Unless you were purposefully trying to create a bad lineup, it really didn't matter.  And they discussed having a low obp guy in the two spot of the pitcher batting 8th and neither really mattered.  They actually said you could draw names out of a hat and you'd probably be ok.

 

2) With that said, the most important spots were #1, 2 and 4. #3 was overrated.

[stringer bell]

As recently as 2014, Dozier was a good option as a lead-off guy. His OBP was .345 and he saw plenty of pitches (almost 90 walks). IIRC, his OBP was pretty much the same for the first half and second half of that year.

 

Maybe I'm old school, but I'd also like a leadoff hitter who at least keeps the attention of the other team as far as base stealing (which Dozier does).

 

I think that the Twins' lineup leans a bit too much right, but more that they have too many guys who get respectable OPS from power numbers and don't have enough OBP guys. A Mauer comeback would help both problems appreciably, as would finding at-bats for Max Kepler.

[BK432]

 

Isn't lineup order overrated?

 

100% unequivocally yes. But it is fun to debate 

[BK432]

I've said it before here, but provided Mauer doesn't go even further into the tank, he's my #1 hitter until Buxton is ready.

 

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park

Plouffe

Rosario

Escobar

Murphy/Suzuki

Buxton

 

When Buxton is ready:

 

Buxton

Mauer

Sano

Park

Dozier

Plouffe

Rosario

Escobar

Murphy/Suzuki

 

You could also entertain leaving Dozier at #2 and letting Mauer slide to spot 5 or 6. I'm not going to personally recommend that until I see some at-bats this year. But we may be close to that point.

[Riverbrian]

As recently as 2014, Dozier was a good option as a lead-off guy. His OBP was .345 and he saw plenty of pitches (almost 90 walks). IIRC, his OBP was pretty much the same for the first half and second half of that year.

 

Maybe I'm old school, but I'd also like a leadoff hitter who at least keeps the attention of the other team as far as base stealing (which Dozier does).

 

I think that the Twins' lineup leans a bit too much right, but more that they have too many guys who get respectable OPS from power numbers and don't have enough OBP guys. A Mauer comeback would help both problems appreciably, as would finding at-bats for Max Kepler.

Jeez String

 

You pulled that right out of my head somehow because I lock step agree with you.

[Steve Lein]

Lineup construction has always been fun to talk about to me. In the majors, it seems there is a general pattern that everyone sticks to, but elsewhere I've seen it done in all kinds of ways.

 

My high-school coach had me bat ninth as a Junior and as a Senior. If he sent some of us down to play in the JV game as a Junior I always was put at leadoff. This was after parts of my freshman and JV years, when I had the same coach, that I was always leadoff or second in the lineup. Senior year he got the impression that I was disappointed batting ninth (probably was), he pulled me aside one day after practice and told me it wasn't because I was the worst hitter, it was because he could count on me to turn the lineup over and be on base for the studs we had at 1, 2, and 3. I agree with this approach, and in general is why you see more national league managers batting their pitcher 8th these days.

 

I also saw other coaches make our lineup in two halves, essentially. Built them in what they described as an order of 1-2-3-4-5-1-2-3-4 type hitters. They even said "we're doing a 1-2-3 lineup today boys" a few times (essentially going 1-2-3-1-2-3-1-2-3 with the lineup).

 

In general, if I had all the players to make it work right, I'd take this approach:

 

Best OPB guys at 1, 2, and 9, best power bats at 3 and 5, best hitter at 4, and fill in the blanks at 6, 7, and 8 based based on the best overall talent of the rest.

 

For the Twins, I guess that means I'd start out the season like this (the Twins don't really have the guys to make it "work right"):

 

Dozier 4

Mauer 3

Plouffe 5

Sano 9

Arcia/Park DH

Escobar 6

Rosario 7

Murphy/Suzuki 2

Buxton 8

 

By August (maybe 2017, and not 16), I want this:

 

Buxton 8

Dozier 4

Kepler 9

Sano 5

Park/Arcia DH

Mauer 3

Escobar 6

Rosario 7

Murphy 2

 

As mentioned, with Plouffe and Mauer still around, the pieces don't quite fit together. That's Terry Ryan's fault in my opinion, for creating (and exacerbating) the problem by the moves or non-moves made this offseason. And because of that, eventually they are are going to end up selling low on the guys that need to be moved to make the necessary room. These are the types of decisions that fit into Einstein's definition of insanity, and why I don't feel all that great about this offseason. The needle has not moved to me.

 

Fun Fact from back in those days: with that 1-2-3-4-5-1-2-3-4 lineup we outscored our first 3 opponents in summer playoffs like 60-something-7. Then ran into Charlie Rudd in single elimination round (winning-est pitcher in St. Paul Saints history). He one-hit us, and our pitcher one-hit them. We lost 1-0 on a sac fly. Helluva game, that was.

[nicksaviking]

 

Career is a more meaningful sample size than August and September of 2015.  Escobar never walked in the minors either for what its worth.  I'm an Escobar fan, I don't mean this to come off as bashing him, he's turned into a good player. I just don't think someone who takes so few walks qualifies as a leadoff hitter

 

Doziers BB% the last 3 years; 8.2%, 12.6%, 8.7%

 

Why would you set your lineup based on career numbers instead of what the player is doing for you currently?

 

Lineup setting better be fluid, it always has been as long as I can remember.

[Riverbrian]

With Mauer, Dozier, eventually Buxton as available options... I'm not seeing the need to try and force Escobar and his 6% BB rate into the leadoff spot.

 

I did qualify my placement of Escobar in the lead off spot by saying that the Twins don't have a true lead off hitter.

 

So I'm putting Escobar there by default. Until Buxton proves himself.

 

I'm ok with Mauer in the #1 spot but like String... I'm old school... I like a real fast guy in the lead off spot. I like a base threat. I know he is only guaranteed to lead off in the 1st inning but I like guys who are disruptive with wheels.

 

Mauer looks at a lot of pitches and goes the other way well and I like him in the 2 hole for that reason. It gives the speed guy a chance to do something and get in a pitchers head and increases the possibility of a mistake to Mauer.

 

But... I don't advocate putting in a speed guy lead off without OBP skills. Not a lot of those guys out there right now. Dee Gordon might be the only one. Maybe Altuve.

 

Dozier in the 5 hole is almost like a 2nd lead off spot if Park clears the bases 60 times this year.

 

I also like the worst hitter batting 8th ala Tony LaRussa. If my #1 hitter can really hit like we want Buxton to hit. I'd like a little momentum out of the 9th spot when the lineup turns back over.

 

I realize that metrics may not support any of this but I am who I am.

[Shane Wahl]

That was the biggest issue with shipping away Hicks for a backup catcher.

 

Anyway:

Buxton CF

Mauer 1B

Sano RF (I guess)

Plouffe 3B

Rosario LF

Dozier 2B

Park DH

Catcher

Escobar

 

Arcia and/or Vargas too.

 

Moving around those 4-7 guys is obviously ok.

 

[alarp33]

 

I did qualify my placement of Escobar in the lead off spot by saying that the Twins don't have a true lead off hitter.

So I'm putting Escobar there by default. Until Buxton proves himself.

I'm ok with Mauer in the #1 spot but like String... I'm old school... I like a real fast guy in the lead off spot. I like a base threat. I know he is only guaranteed to lead off in the 1st inning but I like guys who are disruptive with wheels.

Mauer looks at a lot of pitches and goes the other way well and I like him in the 2 hole for that reason. It gives the speed guy a chance to do something and get in a pitchers head and increases the possibility of a mistake to Mauer.

But... I don't advocate putting in a speed guy lead off without OBP skills. Not a lot of those guys out there right now. Dee Gordon might be the only one. Maybe Altuve.

Dozier in the 5 hole is almost like a 2nd lead off spot if Park clears the bases 60 times this year.

I also like the worst hitter batting 8th ala Tony LaRussa. If my #1 hitter can really hit like we want Buxton to hit. I'd like a little momentum out of the 9th spot when the lineup turns back over.

I realize that metrics may not support any of this but I am who I am.

 

Escobar has 6 career stolen bases.  I would agree he is faster than Mauer, but is he a better base runner? 

[alarp33]

 

Why would you set your lineup based on career numbers instead of what the player is doing for you currently?

 

 

Because a sample of 1,000 is more indicative of future results than a sample of the most recent 50? 

[Riverbrian]

Escobar has 6 career stolen bases.  I would agree he is faster than Mauer, but is he a better base runner?

 

I like Mauer in the 2 and I like Dozier in the middle of the lineup so I gotta put someone in the 1 and I'm running out of options because the Twins are just not currently OBP strong.

 

That's the only excuse I have.

[alarp33]

 

I like Mauer in the 2 and I like Dozier in the middle of the lineup so I gotta put someone in the 1 and I'm running out of options because the Twins are just not currently OBP strong.

That's the only excuse I have.

 

Fair enough.  I'm much more concerned about who is hitting 1, than who is hitting 5 would be my counter.