The Outfield Crapshoot

[TNLooky2015]

Rolling an 11 is sometimes called "a Natural".  When I look at the 11 outfielders heading into spring training, I don't see anything natural about that?  And I bet if you asked the 11 outfielders heading into spring training what they thought of the competition stacked in front of them, at least 7 of them would say "Craps".  Who will emerge (4) for opening day and what is the mindset of the Twins to bring in so many options?  Who will be the first cuts / optioned and why? 

 

LUCKY ELEVEN?

Byron Buxton

Eddie Rosario

Miguel Sano

Danny Santana

Max Kepler

Oswaldo Arcia

Adam Brett Walker II

Carlos Quentin

Joe Benson

Ryan Sweeney

Darin Mastroianni

[BoomBoom]

Santana provides various options (infield; outfield; running;).  He stays for me.  My 4th outfielder however,  would be more of a hitting threat.  Whichever guy proves to be the best game changer out of camp.  The problem is limited reps in camp to prove worth.  I personally think a prospect can gain just as much by hanging around a MLB dugout / lockerroom and studying daily practices as he can by getting AAA hitting reps.  They could stand in the batters box during numerous bullpen sessions to develop their eye.  They could work on defensive drills daily with the best coaches in the business.

 

Buxton (CF)

Rosario (LF)

Sano (RF)

Santana (UTL)

_______  (4th) - Let the games begin..................

 

My gut tells me Sweeny or Mastroianni first to be cut.

Walker and Benson (minor league deal) first to be optioned.

Kepler last to be optioned.  

Oswaldo traded late in camp.  

Quentin becomes 4th outfielder.  Plays OF every 10 days and hits every 4 to 5 days.

[beckmt]

I feel Benson and Walker are sent out early.  Buxton is sent to AAA for a couple of months and Arcia and Quentin make the club and are given AB's to see how they do.  Status of Park also has some bearing as if he goes to AAA then one extra outfielder makes the club.  But outfield will be Rosario, Sano and platoon of Arcia and Quentin to start.  After Buxton comes up one is traded or cut of Arcia or Quentin.  If Park makes team it is much murkier but Quentin probably goes to AAA as insurance policy.  Arcia will get a good look to see where he fits and depending on results most of the rest will revolve around that.

[alarp33]

 

I feel Benson and Walker are sent out early.  Buxton is sent to AAA for a couple of months and Arcia and Quentin make the club and are given AB's to see how they do.  Status of Park also has some bearing as if he goes to AAA then one extra outfielder makes the club.  But outfield will be Rosario, Sano and platoon of Arcia and Quentin to start.  After Buxton comes up one is traded or cut of Arcia or Quentin.  If Park makes team it is much murkier but Quentin probably goes to AAA as insurance policy.  Arcia will get a good look to see where he fits and depending on results most of the rest will revolve around that.

 

Holy cow I hope you are wrong.  Sano-Rosario-Quentin/Arcia would be a disaster of the highest order.  

 

Buxton will make the team, and be the team's best player by WAR this year.  It is absurd the people on this board discounting his ability because of some sporadic at bats last season. 

[Vanimal46]

1 or 2 of the 3 (Mastroianni, Benson, Sweeney) are the first to be let go. ABW and Kepler are sent back to AAA to start the year. I think the Twins are going to break camp with 5 OF's... 

Rosario-Buxton-Sano are the starters. Santana and Arcia on the bench. 

[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe it all depends on Arcia.

If he hits like we all know he can then letting him go would be a disaster. He will be (and should be) given every opportunity to show that last season was a fluke.

 

If Arcia is hitting he is no more likely to get cut than Sano or Buxton.

 

If Arcia is on the team then who is the backup CF behind Rosario? Has to be Buxton or Santana, and if it is Santana we all expect that to be temporary.

 

If they determine that Arcia has 'lost it' then things get much easier. (unless Rosario continues to keep his OBP under .300, in which case that becomes its own complexity)

[lightfoot789]

What if spring training brings out these unlikely results?

Sweeny hits .350

Benson hits .310

Mastrionni hits .320

Santana hits .330

Kepler hits. 320

Quentin hits .280

Walker hits .315

Sano hits .220

Buxton hits .230

Rosario hits .240

Arcia hits .270

Do spring training results ever really matter?  What will be the true deciding factors?  Not the above!

[mikecgrimes]

 

Holy cow I hope you are wrong.  Sano-Rosario-Quentin/Arcia would be a disaster of the highest order.  

 

Buxton will make the team, and be the team's best player by WAR this year.  It is absurd the people on this board discounting his ability because of some sporadic at bats last season. 

 

 

It's not as if he has to hit even .250 to provide offensive value.  If Triple A could turn him into a sure .300 hitter in the 2nd half then I would be all for it, but a few months of struggling against Major League pitching is probably more valuable at this point this point.  He easily makes the team on Defense alone, and he has tons of Offensive potential, if they send him down they're being to cute.

[jimmer]

 

Buxton will make the team, and be the team's best player by WAR this year.

It is absurd the people on this board discounting his ability because of some sporadic at bats last season. 

Perhaps it's just for the reasons below people aren't ready to say he'll be the best player on the team leading in WAR this year.

 

A: Hasn't adjusted to the major league level

B: Hasn't proven anything at the major league level

C: Is injury prone

 

Ability doesn't always translate right away and sometimes never.

 

 

 

[spinowner]

 

Perhaps it's just for the reasons below people aren't ready to say he'll be the best player on the team leading in WAR this year.

 

A: Hasn't adjusted to the major league level

B: Hasn't proven anything at the major league level

C: Is injury prone

 

Ability doesn't always translate right away and sometimes never.

A: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

B: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

C: Wrist injury in 2014: $#!+ happens. Concussion in 2014: Fluke. Thumb injury in 2015: Mistake due to inexperience. Injury prone: Nope.

 

Last sentence: Dude is barely 22 years old. If he's still having trouble in 4 years then we can start to worry.

[jimmer]

 

A: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

B: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

C: Wrist injury in 2014: $#!+ happens. Concussion in 2014: Fluke. Thumb injury in 2015: Mistake due to inexperience. Injury prone: Nope.

 

Last sentence: Dude is barely 22 years old. If he's still having trouble in 4 years then we can start to worry.

Not all of those are fluke.  It's him playing all out all the time and not knowing when to back off a bit.  He's the guy who will try to run through a wall.  I dig the all out mentality but he has to develop some sense in that regard lest he becomes our Eric Davis (who was awesome when he stayed on the field).

 

I'm not worried at all, but I'm also not ready to say he'll be our best player by WAR because there is nothing to suggest that in his first year, that will be the case.  How about we just stop putting expectations like that on him? 

[Kwak]

 

Perhaps it's just for the reasons below people aren't ready to say he'll be the best player on the team leading in WAR this year.

 

A: Hasn't adjusted to the major league level

B: Hasn't proven anything at the major league level

C: Is injury prone

 

Ability doesn't always translate right away and sometimes never.

D:  The Twins love their guys to have their AAA card punched.

 

E:   The Twins have stated that he will spend time at Rochester.

 

F:   The Twins need Active Roster spots for "last looks" for multiple players who have "underwhelmed".

[old nurse]

 

What if spring training brings out these unlikely results?

Sweeny hits .350

Benson hits .310

Mastrionni hits .320

Santana hits .330

Kepler hits. 320

Quentin hits .280

Walker hits .315

Sano hits .220

Buxton hits .230

Rosario hits .240

Arcia hits .270

Do spring training results ever really matter?  What will be the true deciding factors?  Not the above!

I would think teams would look at performance  rather than actual numbers. If your pitcher is working on pitches early in spring training more than working at outs, so is the other team's pitcher

[TNLooky2015]

 

I would think teams would look at performance  rather than actual numbers. If your pitcher is working on pitches early in spring training more than working at outs, so is the other team's pitcher

This is so true.  So how and why should we comment on any spring training numbers / performance if we don't know what the opposing pitchers are working on.  ST really doesn't tell us much.  How do you know if Sweeny, Mastroianni, or Benson have really improved?  Are the Twins making their opening day roster spots based on whether players STINK up the place more so than if they've improved?  

[Platoon]

The Park and Plouffe decisions and the Sano Experiment, will ripple through the lineup. Kepler is gone for sure. Buxton will have to earn it, they still have Aaron Hicks engrained in the brain. I fear for Oswaldo. I can't see them starting a Rosario, Sano, and Arcai OF. And the Twins haven't been big on bench bats. I would hate to see him go. Really. Hate. To. See. That. What intrigues (aggravates) me is to see who will be the "mystery" veteran retainee. Benson, Mastrionni, Sweeney, or Quentin? There is no way the Twins go north without one. It's The Twins Way!

[adorduan]

 

A: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

B: Not yet. I think he has a good chance to do so this season.

C: Wrist injury in 2014: $#!+ happens. Concussion in 2014: Fluke. Thumb injury in 2015: Mistake due to inexperience. Injury prone: Nope.

 

Last sentence: Dude is barely 22 years old. If he's still having trouble in 4 years then we can start to worry.

A: Based on what?

B: Based on what?

C:  that's a perfect example of what people call injury prone,

And if he's still having trouble 4 years from now, he's a bust, period.

[Dantes929]

 

What if spring training brings out these unlikely results?

Sweeny hits .350

Benson hits .310

Mastrionni hits .320

Santana hits .330

Kepler hits. 320

Quentin hits .280

Walker hits .315

Sano hits .220

Buxton hits .230

Rosario hits .240

Arcia hits .270

Do spring training results ever really matter?  What will be the true deciding factors?  Not the above!

Twins already know which players are going to start their season.  Its not written in ink but with lead that is slightly damp which makes it really hard to erase.     Much like Morneau if Sano bats .190 in ST it isn't going to change anything.    If he can't catch a fly ball then the roster might not change but the pieces will be moved around.    Buxton looking silly on breaking balls and Park looking lost might influence things but I am guessing Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Santana and Arcia for the outfield.

[Hrbowski]

 

What if spring training brings out these unlikely results?

Sweeny hits .350

Benson hits .310

Mastrionni hits .320

Santana hits .330

Kepler hits. 320

Quentin hits .280

Walker hits .315

Sano hits .220

Buxton hits .230

Rosario hits .240

Arcia hits .270

Do spring training results ever really matter?  What will be the true deciding factors?  Not the above!

Quentin can't make the team if Sweeny hits .70 points higher, and Walker will have to hit around .400 with 8 homers to get a spot, so those two are the obvious outs, Benson won't make camp if he hits .10 lower than Mastro, and Mastro won't make it if he hits .30 lower than Sweeny. Sano, Rosario, and Sweeny would be locks in that situation, with Arcia getting one final shot over Kepler.

[bluechipper]

 

Quentin can't make the team if Sweeny hits .70 points higher, and Walker will have to hit around .400 with 8 homers to get a spot, so those two are the obvious outs, Benson won't make camp if he hits .10 lower than Mastro, and Mastro won't make it if he hits .30 lower than Sweeny. Sano, Rosario, and Sweeny would be locks in that situation, with Arcia getting one final shot over Kepler.

Arcia would be a lock in that situation. I don't see any realistic scenario where Sweeney plays himself into a lock to make the team.

[BoomBoom]

 

Twins already know which players are going to start their season.  Its not written in ink but with lead that is slightly damp which makes it really hard to erase.     Much like Morneau if Sano bats .190 in ST it isn't going to change anything.    If he can't catch a fly ball then the roster might not change but the pieces will be moved around.    Buxton looking silly on breaking balls and Park looking lost might influence things but I am guessing Buxton, Rosario, Sano, Santana and Arcia for the outfield.

YEP - I see it the same way

[spinowner]

 

A: Based on what?

B: Based on what?

C:  that's a perfect example of what people call injury prone,

And if he's still having trouble 4 years from now, he's a bust, period.

A: The opinion of many, many baseball people and his age.

B: The opinion of many, many baseball people and his age.

C: Injury prone means a player either is physically fragile or consistently disregards healthy practices. Based on that, IMHO he's no more injury prone than any other inexperienced player. My guess is he'll be healthier than the average player going forward.

And if he's still having trouble 4 years from now I'll agree that he's a bust. But I'll bet that won't happen.

[TheLeviathan]

Hoping on Buxton is absolutely what every Twins fan should be doing.

 

Counting on him being their best player is going way too far.  And, frankly, it's not particularly fair to Buxton.

[DocBauer]

Say what you want about roster management overall, but the Twins aren't just blind. IF Buxton doesn't start the season in the majors, I don't see Rosario in CF with Sano and whoever, (Arcia?), in the other corner spot. The defense...or lack thereof...would greatly affect the staff. Santana wouldn't be the best, or worst, option. He could hold the spot temporarily. Otherwise, it will be a last minute option added or the best...or least aweful...hitting option of Benson, Mastroianni, etc.

 

Buxton is supremely talented, needed, doesn't have to set the place on fire all at once AND looked much better on his return to close out the season. I'm banking on him. The logjam is really at AAA and how that sets up with prospects and/vs veterans.

 

Rosario

Buxton

Sano

Arcia

Santana as INF/OF utility

[Oxtung]

And if he's still having trouble 4 years from now, he's a bust, period.

Totally agree. Just like Jake Arrieta.

[laloesch]

 

Holy cow I hope you are wrong.  Sano-Rosario-Quentin/Arcia would be a disaster of the highest order.  

 

Buxton will make the team, and be the team's best player by WAR this year.  It is absurd the people on this board discounting his ability because of some sporadic at bats last season. 

 

 

I think thats overly optimistic.  Buxton is a sucker for breaking balls.  Until he stops swing at balls bouncing 3 feet in front of home plate he's not going to be the team's best player by war.  Given how poorly his first season went i would not be the least bit surprised if he spent the first half of 2016 in AAA.

[laloesch]

 

Perhaps it's just for the reasons below people aren't ready to say he'll be the best player on the team leading in WAR this year.

 

A: Hasn't adjusted to the major league level

B: Hasn't proven anything at the major league level

C: Is injury prone

 

Ability doesn't always translate right away and sometimes never.

 

Gotta agree.  So far he hasn't adjusted to the major league pitching AT ALL.  His reckless all or nothing style of play has also landed him on the DL multiple times the past year and that will have to change.  However, given the Twins choices in the outfield he might experience those growing pains at the major league level.

[laloesch]

 

The Park and Plouffe decisions and the Sano Experiment, will ripple through the lineup. Kepler is gone for sure. Buxton will have to earn it, they still have Aaron Hicks engrained in the brain. I fear for Oswaldo. I can't see them starting a Rosario, Sano, and Arcai OF. And the Twins haven't been big on bench bats. I would hate to see him go. Really. Hate. To. See. That. What intrigues (aggravates) me is to see who will be the "mystery" veteran retainee. Benson, Mastrionni, Sweeney, or Quentin? There is no way the Twins go north without one. It's The Twins Way!

 

This frustrates me as well.  They have MANY options to experiment with this year.  I HATE that we have Benson, Sweeney, Quention and Mastro on board. We all their tendencies to hang onto washed up retreads at the expense of youth and instead of focusing on which ones are keepers and put off the inevitable.

[stringer bell]

Let's dispense with the easy cuts first: Benson hasn't been able to stay healthy and has not had success against AAA pitching. He is not longer a fuzzy-cheeked youngster. I expect him to get some PAs early, but be an early casualty. Mastoianni is now over 30 and hasn't had appreciable success since his first season with the Twins (2011), another early reassignment to the minors.

 

Quentin is even older, again without much success in several years. Given his All-Star past and recent inactivity, I expect the Twins will hang onto him a bit longer before assigning him to the minors. Walker will get a look and since pitchers are getting their work in early, I figure he'll have some success, but he's not a serious candidate to make the team. Kepler is in the same position, but has a sliver of a chance, so he'll get a bit longer look than Walker.

 

That will leave six candidates for five positions:   Locks--Rosario and Sano. Out of options--Santana and Arcia. Veteran Sweeney and top prospect Buxton. If everyone performs well, Sweeney is the odd man out. If Buxton or one of the out-of-options guys struggle mightily, Sweeney is my pick to make the club. Finally, if there are disabling injuries, perhaps Sweeney ekes his way onto the team.

[mikelink45]

Buxton, Rosario give us gloves to protect our less than stellar pitching staff.   Lets not forget that defense counts.  RF is Sano and the back up is Arcia or one of the grab bag assortment that the Twins signed.  Then lets see what they do with Kepler if last year is not followed by regression.  

I am amazed at how many people on these blogs seem to have written off a 22 year old with superstar potential have a partial year where he did not even have enough bats to lose his rookie status. 

 

"Mays began his major league career with no hits in his first 12 at bats. On his 13th at-bat, he hit a home run over the left field roof of the Polo Grounds off future Hall of Famer Warren Spahn.[17] Spahn later joked, "I'll never forgive myself. We might have gotten rid of Willie forever if I'd only struck him out." Mays' average improved steadily throughout the rest of the season. Although his .274 average, 68 RBI and 20 homers (in 121 games) were among the lowest of his career," - wikipedia

 

Patience is okay with special players.

[Linus]

It's all good. By the end of the year we could have a combo of Rosario Buxton Kepler and Arcia. This would be really exciting and bodes well for the future.