Article: Are You Saying John Ryan Murphy Can't Hit A Curveball?

[Parker Hageman]

When the Minnesota Twins acquired catcher John Ryan Murphy from the Yankees, the Twins’ front office touted his potential to be an impact player both as a defensive catcher and an offensive one as well.

 

In the aftermath of the deal, Twins assistant GM Rob Antony toldreporters that his staff felt that Murphy had the potential to be a solid “two-way” catcher -- meaning he would be able to contribute both behind the plate and next to it. Sharing that sentiment was Yankees GM Brian Cashman who felt that Murphy had the talent to start but was blocked by Brian McCann and being chased by catching prospect Gary Sanchez, making him the perfect trade piece to a team seeking a catcher with starter potential and nabbing Aaron Hicks, whom Fangraphs.com just determined as one of the game’s most “well-rounded” players, in the process.

 

So can Murphy be a two-way player? Let’s set aside the catching aspect and focus on the stick.The bar to be an average offensive catcher is not set very high. In fact, overall in 2015, major league catchers posted a collective .682 OPS. In his limited exposure with the Yankees this past season (172 plate appearances), Murphy (who we are dubbing “The Serial Killer” for his use of three names) cleared this with ease. But here’s the rub: While he proved that he could mash fastballs but he hasn’t shown that he can handle the curveball yet in his time at the major league level. Throw him a heat and you will likely see a solidly stroked line drive but spin him a curve and he’ll barely nub it past the mound.

 

It is not that he is swinging through the bender, he simply has trouble hitting it squarely. To be fair, it is a small sample size and Murphy has not seen a high number of curves (according to Fangraphs.com it has been just 9% of his pitch mix since 2014), but the 24-year-old has not managed to put one in play with any sort of authority. As you can see from the chart below, with the exception of a floating liner and a couple of pop-outs, the majority of balls he has put in play have been choppers to the third baseman:

 

Download attachment: export (3).png

Like this one:

 

http://i.imgur.com/J39NN7x.gif

 

Here is Murphy’s only hit this season on a curveball:

 

http://i.imgur.com/pw6yNRK.gif

Is this an ominous sign that Murphy may never fully develop into a complete hitter? Will he be eaten alive by big mind-bending breakers next year? Obviously the sample size is nowhere near significant enough to make any informed deductions but let’s jump to conclusions nonetheless. Murphy is still a young hitter and, in terms of the weak contact, the common theme appears to be being caught off-guard by professional-grade curveballs on hitters' and even counts -- those counts in which a minor league hitter might expect a fastball. What we see is a guess hitter at this point in his career. In the examples above, he was guessing fastball and was well out front when the breaking ball came.

 

There are plenty of good major league hitters who are unable to do much damage on curveballs. Mike Trout, Robinson Cano, Evan Longoria were among some of the game’s better hitters this past season who have done little against curveballs. What makes them better hitters is avoiding biting on those pitches. For Murphy, preparation and experience will likely help him become more consistent.

 

This may be an exercise in pebble-hunting to be sure, but if he is able to refine his approach against curves Murphy just might become that two-way catcher the Twins coveted.

 

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[diehardtwinsfan]

The solution is to have him hitting against Duffey this spring whenever Duffey is working on his curve.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

It is not that he is swinging through the bender, he simply has trouble hitting it squarely.

I noticed Murphy has had a notably higher K% in his MLB time so far (as compared to his minor league rates).  Is that not connected to this curveball trouble?

 

I'm still worried about whether the Twins are the team to help him bring that K% down...

Edited November 20, 2015 by spycake

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The solution is to have him hitting against Duffey this spring whenever Duffey is working on his curve.

I don't want anyone to figure out how to hit Duffey's curve, even his own catcher. Too dangerous if that information leaked.

[Parker Hageman]

I noticed Murphy has had a notably higher K% in his MLB time so far (as compared to his minor league rates).  Is that not connected to this curveball trouble?

 

 

His strikeout rate on the curveball is high (and probably higher than what he experienced in the minors) but the majority of his strikeouts came on fastballs. I think he has shown he has a good contact rate throughout the minors -- he likely just needs to get acclimated to major league pitching and that rate will come down a bit.

 

[Doubles]

http://zidtees.com/products/square/85233.png

[Parker Hageman]

 

http://zidtees.com/products/square/85233.png

 

I hope someday I can look like this with my shirt off too.

[Doubles]

Nothing personal, but I hope you don't get cast as a reliever on the downhill side of his pitching career in a movie that tries really hard to otherwise look semi-legit.

[DaveW]

Sweet, this makes me loathe the already terrible trade even more!

 

Great work though Parker, hopefully Murphy can learn how to hit a curve at least once in a while, that's only our prayer that he becomes even close to an average catcher.

[tharasix]

 

The solution is to have him hitting against Duffey this spring whenever Duffey is working on his curve.

 

I was going to go the other way with it.  At least he doesn't have to face Duffey's curveball now.

[blindeke]

It usually takes a while to figure out major league curveballs.

[sane]

"Are You Saying John Ryan Murphy Can't Hit A Curveball?"

As a player and coach for xxx years, I am saying that 99.99999% of the earth's population can't hit a good MLB curveball. Most MLB hitters have to learn to work around that problem.

[DocBauer]

Now Parker...let's not start a holy war.

[sane]

"Are You Saying John Ryan Murphy Can't Hit A Curveball?"

As a player and coach for xxx years, I am saying that 99.99999% of the earth's population can't hit a good MLB curveball. Most MLB hitters have to learn to work around that problem.

In that percentage of the earth's population which CAN'T hit a good MLB curveball, you can include Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, Hicks, Hermann and Fryer.

[Thrylos]

Math: 

 

Murphy had a grand total of 284 PAs in the majors.  According to this  8.7% of the pitches thrown to him were curves.

 

So, this argument is made based on a grand total of 25 pitches? 

 

 

[Parker Hageman]

So, this argument is made based on a grand total of 25 pitches?

 

 

What argument? This is a simply statement of fact (he hasn't hit the curveball well) with in a small sample size (which is noted several times within the post that you felt needed repeating and a sweet emoticon to emphasize). 

 

As a player and coach for xxx years, I am saying that 99.99999% of the earth's population can't hit a good MLB curveball. Most MLB hitters have to learn to work around that problem....In that percentage of the earth's population which CAN'T hit a good MLB curveball, you can include Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Vargas, Dozier, Plouffe, Hicks, Hermann and Fryer.

 

 

Right. Thank you for repeating my conclusion in regards to The Serial Killer.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Math: 

 

Murphy had a grand total of 284 PAs in the majors.  According to this  8.7% of the pitches thrown to him were curves.

 

So, this argument is made based on a grand total of 25 pitches? 

He was pretty clear about the small sample size.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So what is catching depth in this organization now?

 

1. Suzuki

1a. Murphy

3. Fryer

4. ??

5. ?????

 

I can't recall ever needing to go much beyond #3, but it's looking pretty thin if we need to, it seems.

[brvama]

IIRC didn't Fryer signed elsewhere. I think the Cards

[DocBauer]

We need a #3 from somewhere. Turner and Garver would be #'s 4 & 5 I would assume.

[big dog]

Wait, Aaron Hicks is one of the most well-rounded players in the majors?  Did they actually ever watch him hit against a right-handed pitcher???

[Darius]

 

Wait, Aaron Hicks is one of the most well-rounded players in the majors?  Did they actually ever watch him hit against a right-handed pitcher???

 

Can you explain the signficance of that?  Given his shortcomings against RHP, he still hit on a 20/20 full season pace last year, with excellent centerfield defense.  This argument is so stale.  Why can't we just accept that HIcks is a very good ballplayer?  What do you expect, Mike Trout?

 

If he narrows the gap in his splits (in a positive way)...he could easily end up in an All-Star game down the road.  Wouldn't shock me.  

 

Oh well, hopefully Murphy will be a league average catcher in a part-time role, as advertised.  That's the missing the piece to the championship puzzle.

 

 

[Darius]

 

As a player and coach for xxx years, I am saying that 99.99999% of the earth's population can't hit a good MLB curveball.

 

D'ohK. 

[sane]

So what is catching depth in this organization now?

Lucky for us, we don't need ANY catchers,....NOW.

Our next scheduled regular season game is in about 130 days, and I predict that the Twins will locate another catcher in the time available.

[sane]

The solution is to have him hitting against Duffey this spring whenever Duffey is working on his curve.

Hitting against Duffy's curveball is not a confidence builder.

Murphy may start to hedge on his career choice.

There are thousands of hitters, who after first seeing a great MLB curveball, revised their career plans, and now bag groceries at the market.

[theBOMisthebomb]

Math: 

 

Murphy had a grand total of 284 PAs in the majors.  According to this  8.7% of the pitches thrown to him were curves.

 

So, this argument is made based on a grand total of 25 pitches? 

 

Being an auditor at trade I am scratching my head at the math. Did he only face one pitch in each of his 284 PAs? 284X1= 284X.087= 25 pitches. Was the one and only pitch he faced in each of 284 PAs only ever a curveball? Unless I am missing something here Murphy has faced more than 25 curveballs, maybe somewhere in the 50-75 range. Still, it is a major red flag that he has 0 of them solidly and definitely something to watch.

 

Great research, Parker.

[USAFChief]

 

 

The 8.7 percent comes from pitch/fx. Click on the bolded word "this" in the OP

[Richie the Rally Goat]

"Being an auditor at trade I am scratching my head at the math. Did he only face one pitch in each of his 284 PAs? 284X1= 284X.087= 25 pitches. Was the one and only pitch he faced in each of 284 PAs only ever a curveball? Unless I am missing something here Murphy has faced more than 25 curveballs, maybe somewhere in the 50-75 range. Still, it is a major red flag that he has 0 of them solidly and definitely something to watch. "

 

The average plate appearance is 3.7 pitches, no mlb pitcher throws 50-75 percent curveballs. I don't buy your argument, but for the sake of it, we'll accept the premise.

 

So 50 to 75 pitches is any more statistically significant? SSS alert doesn't even begin to describe my level of apathy for the argument

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Never mind, do buy 50 - 75 curveballs, still don't care

[theBOMisthebomb]

Never mind, do buy 50 - 75 curveballs, still don't care

 

Agreed we need a larger sample size. I do feel it is something to be aware of and monitor next season.