What is TR thinking

[BullDozier2]

I am fed up with this guy. He is honestly the worst GM in baseball. I don't understand why he is so attached to Plouffe that he is serious about moving out most valuable player to a position that he has never played before (which will be a disaster in my opinion) Trading Plouffe and a couple prospects could get us a decent return (I was thinking a Plouffe/Hicks/prospects package to the Brewers for Lucroy would be excellent trade). It makes total sense but Terry for some odd reason thinks that Plouffe is essential to this team. Sano plays third, Plouffe gets traded. Its as simple as that. I don't understand why he is sacrificing our amazing outfield defense to make room for Plouffe to stay on the team hit into more double plays 

[Mike Sixel]

Welcome to the boards.

 

I am not the biggest TR guy on the planet*, but I don't think he's the worst GM in MLB. I think we need to wait a few months to understand his plan, but I think I see that he's going for it in the next year or two. I endorse that, if he thinks they are ready. He has not done that in the past, and doing that is, imo, what he should do.

 

*understatement......

[nytwinsfan]

Patience.  If Ryan ****s this up there will be plenty of time to bitch and moan about it later.  I for one, will gladly join you.  But we don't know what he's planning or what deals he's got in the works. As others have repeatedly pointed out, moving Sano to OF could just be a ruse to gain leverage in a trade of Plouffe (and potentially Arcia and Vargas too). The offseason just began. Let's judge him on the final result, not the first lap.

[maxisagod]

 

Patience.  If Ryan ****s this up there will be plenty of time to bitch and moan about it later.  I for one, will gladly join you.  But we don't know what he's planning or what deals he's got in the works. As others have repeatedly pointed out, moving Sano to OF could just be a ruse to gain leverage in a trade of Plouffe (and potentially Arcia and Vargas too). The offseason just began. Let's judge him on the final result, not the first lap.

Agreed. If Ryan didn't say this, he lower Plouffe value, by letting teams know he could trade him but doesn't have to it A, keeps Plouffe value and B, if he ends up trading somebody else instead, doesn't make it feel like a failure if Plouffe is still on the team come April. 

[sane]

Only 145 days until Opening Day.

Try to hold your water.

[Winston Smith]

I really doubt any GM is stupid enough to read much   into any thing another GM says. If they want a player they will pay what they feel is fair, or less, and some quote in the paper isn't going to up that imo.

[Mike Sixel]

Agreed. If Ryan didn't say this, he lower Plouffe value, by letting teams know he could trade him but doesn't have to it A, keeps Plouffe value and B, if he ends up trading somebody else instead, doesn't make it feel like a failure if Plouffe is still on the team come April.

so you figured this out, but GMs can't?

[USAFChief]

I'm pretty skeptical about Plouffe's trade value being affected by TR "tricking" other GMs with statements about Sano.

 

Does anyone really think other GMs are going to up their offer for Plouffe based on that? Or lower their offer?

 

Edit: what Winston said.

[maxisagod]

 

so you figured this out, but GMs can't?

What can I say, I'm a smart dude.

Value is perceived. If someone has to sell their car and you know it, you can low ball them. If they don't have to sell it and can hold on to it, your more likely to offer more in return. Ryan is letting teams know he doesn't have to sell Plouffe, but has a surplus he can draw from. I hope other GM's got that message.  

[dxpavelka]

 

I am fed up with this guy. He is honestly the worst GM in baseball. I don't understand why he is so attached to Plouffe that he is serious about moving out most valuable player to a position that he has never played before (which will be a disaster in my opinion) Trading Plouffe and a couple prospects could get us a decent return (I was thinking a Plouffe/Hicks/prospects package to the Brewers for Lucroy would be excellent trade). It makes total sense but Terry for some odd reason thinks that Plouffe is essential to this team. Sano plays third, Plouffe gets traded. Its as simple as that. I don't understand why he is sacrificing our amazing outfield defense to make room for Plouffe to stay on the team hit into more double plays 

So let me get this straight.  You want to trade 33 home runs & 119 (a number which should only go up with Hicks playing more games next year) for a guy who IF he's not starting on the downhill side of his career (like his current team seems to think he is) would be extremely lucky to top out at 15 home runs & 80 RBI?  Maybe we could throw in Buxton & Berrios too.  Just to close the deal.

[clone52]

I'm sure they're looking at trading Plouffe.  Ploufee+Hicks+prospects is way overpaying, though.

 

In my opinion, Plouffe and LuCroy are pretty similar assets.  Both have 2 years left of team control.  You know what you are getting with Plouffe.  He's been healthy and pretty steady.  Decent bat, above average 3B defense.  LuCroy gets bonus points for being at a key position.  However, he was injured.

 

If I'm trading for a Catcher, I'd much rather go after Derek Norris, even though it would cost more.

 

I guess if I'm looking at Sano, I'm looking to the future.  Is he going to end up a 3B or 1B full time.  If they really think he's going to be a full time 3B, then you trade Plouffe and put Sano at 3B for the next 6 years.  However, if you're not sure if Sano is really a 3B and you're really  pencilling him in as a 1B replacement for Mauer, then you're just looking for a spot to put Sano for 2-3 years until Mauer is ready to move on.

 

Lets say you're the GM and really believe that Sano's end game is 1B after Mauer is done.  You need a spot to put Sano for the next couple of years.  Lets be honest, too.  Sano was dinged up a bit this year.  Its likely that next year, even if Sano is your every day 3B, he's not going to play 150 games at 3B.  He's still going to get some time at DH and if you're grooming him to take over at 1B, you might give him some games at 1B as well.  Probably best case scenario, Sano plays 120 games at 3B and more likely closer to 100.  That means you've got to fill 40-60 games at 3B with a backup, probably Eduardo Nunez.

 

However, if you keep Plouffe and Sano can play a passable LF, he maybe gets 80 games in LF and the rest at DH or 1B/3B.  When he's not playing LF, the depth the Twins have in the outfield fills that spot much better than they would filling 3B.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

so you figured this out, but GMs can't?

 

It is probably like poker.  A good poker player rarely completely bluffs. Usually, when you bluff, you have some cards and have a chance of winning anyway, but you are just betting beyond what your cards can justify.  So I have no doubt that Ryan really means Sano will be ready to play OF. It is just that he hopes he can trade Plouffe, and having Sano ready to play OF makes the threat of not trading Plouffe and holding out for better value more credible. But if nobody offers value, he really will send Sano to RF on opening day. Then that makes the threat even more credible, and maybe in June someone will decide it is worth paying the higher price for Plouffe.

 

[laloesch]

 

So let me get this straight.  You want to trade 33 home runs & 119 (a number which should only go up with Hicks playing more games next year) for a guy who IF he's not starting on the downhill side of his career (like his current team seems to think he is) would be extremely lucky to top out at 15 home runs & 80 RBI?  Maybe we could throw in Buxton & Berrios too.  Just to close the deal.

 

Bit of a stretch don't you think.  How bout 22-25 homeruns and 80-85 rbi.  Not bad but not extraordinary.

[Vanimal46]

Plenty of time to get worked up over the moves made this off-season. This isn't one of them.. 

 

As Mike Tice once said "Enjoy the season!"

 

http://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NTAwWDUwMA==/z/sEwAAOSw0e9Us8uZ/$_35.JPG

[Nick Nelson]

I wouldn't make much out of the posturing about Sano going to the OF. Does anyone really believe that a defense-minded team is going to send a 250-lb kid who has never played the outfield into RF regularly, in a year where they plan on contending, after a brief crash course in winter ball and spring training? It's rather absurd.

 

At this point, however, TR has no choice but to say it's the plan. It isn't just about subterfuge to gain leverage in trade talks, there's also the matter of Plouffe himself being a fairly tenured player on this roster. You can't just leave your guy sitting in limbo like that. 

[dgwills]

 

It is probably like poker.  A good poker player rarely completely bluffs. Usually, when you bluff, you have some cards and have a chance of winning anyway, but you are just betting beyond what your cards can justify.  So I have no doubt that Ryan really means Sano will be ready to play OF. It is just that he hopes he can trade Plouffe, and having Sano ready to play OF makes the threat of not trading Plouffe and holding out for better value more credible. But if nobody offers value, he really will send Sano to RF on opening day. Then that makes the threat even more credible, and maybe in June someone will decide it is worth paying the higher price for Plouffe.

I agree with this. He also has to think that if he doesn't get a good offer it's good to have a backup plan. I have to reply do to your poker reference. I used to play quite a bit and I've had people call me because they knew I was bluffing. Then I'd have still have a better hand. That was always the funniest thing at the table to me.

[James]

Slow down there, Turbo.

 

Free agency began 3 days ago (in full) and trades like this usually don't happen until, at least, the winter meetings.  That's not for another month. 

 

There is plenty of time to make a trade or four.

 

The GM meetings are going on right now.  TR could very well be working out a trade at this very moment.  I personally don't think that he will until they sign Park, but he could be laying the groundwork right now.  

[bird]

A couple thoughts:

 

I'll take Sano in LF over either Arcia or Hammer any day. Sight unseen. Not that this is any big consolation.

 

Plouffe and Hicks for Lucroy? Even the worst GM in the Milky Way isn't dumb enough to make THAT trade.

[dbminn]

Ryan is not trying to "trick" GMs. Like others here have said, it's a message that he's willing to walk away from lousy trades. It also is a sign of respect for Plouffe - not hanging him out to dry when there is no reason. Try to imagine your boss wandering around the office, talking about demoting or getting rid of you for a couple of months without taking any action. Not a great way to build office morale.

[Darius]

Plouffe was third on the team in at bats (573), second in runs (74), third in hits (140), second in doubles (35), third in triples (4), second in home runs (22), first in RBI (86), second in total bases (249), fourth in walks (50), was second on the team in OWAR (2.2 - tied w/ Sano), had a .977 fielding percentage at third base, with a 7.234 ZR (for comparison - Buxton was 7.9).  Is that production not important to the team? 

 

I've said this repeatedly (already):  You need RH power in Target Field.  You accumulate it.  You don't trade it away.  This is why Ryan is trying to sign Park in the first place, and why Arcia needs a change of scenery. 

 

Just to give you an idea of what the double play figure means:  From 2012-2015, here are some of the league leaders in double plays, other than Plouffe:  2012 NL - Ryan Zimmerman, 2012 AL - MIguel Cabrera (same year he won the triple crown and MVP).  2013 NL - Matt Holliday, 2013 AL - Billy Butler, 2014 AL - Albert Pujols.  That's a list of guys who are pretty good with a bat.  If you look at the top 25 of GIDPs every year, you basically see a who's who (included in 2015:  Cabrera, Bautista, Frazier, Adrian Gonazlez, Braun, Adam Jones, Pollock, Salvordor Perez, Kendrys Morales, Cano, Mauer, Fielder, etc.....Guess who's 28th on the list...Lucroy with 18)

 

Plouffe is the kind of player that doesn't anything do spectacular, but does many things very well.  He's a very valuable player to this team.  Trading Plouffe or Hicks would be a bad move, IMO.  Trading Plouffe and Hicks plus prospects for a catcher who averages roughly 400 ABs and 11 HRs a season....and posted a WAR of 1.0 last year (lower than Plouffe 2.5, HIcks 1.3) would be an awful decision.  They'd be paying for 2014, which he'll likely never match again.  They can find cheaper defense at catcher, and they don't need his offense (which is "meh" aside from '14).

 

If you're trading Plouffe AND Hicks AND prospects...you better be getting some pitching in return, because there goes a whole bunch of defense.  Do you propose Danny Santana play center field when Buxton starts the year in AAA?  What do you do if Park is awful, rely on Vargas?  Do think Park should get 600+ PAs?  Or, what if Mauer gets hurt again?  Or, Sano gets hurt again?  It's a disaster waiting to happen....and it most certainly would.

 

 

[markos]

 

I wouldn't make much out of the posturing about Sano going to the OF. Does anyone really believe that a defense-minded team is going to send a 250-lb kid who has never played the outfield into RF regularly, in a year where they plan on contending, after a brief crash course in winter ball and spring training? It's rather absurd.

 

At this point, however, TR has no choice but to say it's the plan. It isn't just about subterfuge to gain leverage in trade talks, there's also the matter of Plouffe himself being a fairly tenured player on this roster. You can't just leave your guy sitting in limbo like that. 

The Brewers sent Ryan Braun to the outfield at age 24 after playing his entire career at 3rd base. He went on to make the All Star game, finished 3rd in MVP voting, and the Brewers won 90 games and won the Wildcard. The Marlins had Miguel Cabrera play 3 games in the outfield in AA before calling him up at age 20. He played the rest of the season in the outfield and helped the Marlins win the World Series. Further, the Twins have shown for years now that they don't value plus defense at corner outfield positions (Stewart, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Willingham). I don't think it is absurd at all that they would consider moving Sano in the outfield. 

[Mike Sixel]

The Brewers sent Ryan Braun to the outfield at age 24 after playing his entire career at 3rd base. He went on to make the All Star game, finished 3rd in MVP voting, and the Brewers won 90 games and won the Wildcard. The Marlins had Miguel Cabrera play 3 games in the outfield in AA before calling him up at age 20. He played the rest of the season in the outfield and helped the Marlins win the World Series. Further, the Twins have shown for years now that they don't value plus defense at corner outfield positions (Stewart, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Willingham). I don't think it is absurd at all that they would consider moving Sano in the outfield.

annoying us with examples and facts.....

[Hambino the Great]

TR needs to lay off those brownies from Colorado.

[ThejacKmp]

 

What can I say, I'm a smart dude.

Value is perceived. If someone has to sell their car and you know it, you can low ball them. If they don't have to sell it and can hold on to it, your more likely to offer more in return. Ryan is letting teams know he doesn't have to sell Plouffe, but has a surplus he can draw from. I hope other GM's got that message.  

 

Agreed, he's basically saying "I know the same thing you probably know - we don't need to move Plouffe."

I'm very glad he isn't make a knee jerk decision to trade Plouffe. Rosario, Hicks and Plouffe all could be moved to clear up the log jam. He should get fair value. If he doesn't, wait til the deadline. It only takes one injury for depth to matter.

 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Plouffe was third on the team in at bats (573), second in runs (74), third in hits (140), second in doubles (35), third in triples (4), second in home runs (22), first in RBI (86), second in total bases (249), fourth in walks (50), was second on the team in OWAR (2.2 - tied w/ Sano), had a .977 fielding percentage at third base, with a 7.234 ZR (for comparison - Buxton was 7.9).  Is that production not important to the team? 

 

I've said this repeatedly (already):  You need RH power in Target Field.  You accumulate it.  You don't trade it away.  This is why Ryan is trying to sign Park in the first place, and why Arcia needs a change of scenery. 

 

Just to give you an idea of what the double play figure means:  From 2012-2015, here are some of the league leaders in double plays, other than Plouffe:  2012 NL - Ryan Zimmerman, 2012 AL - MIguel Cabrera (same year he won the triple crown and MVP).  2013 NL - Matt Holliday, 2013 AL - Billy Butler, 2014 AL - Albert Pujols.  That's a list of guys who are pretty good with a bat.  If you look at the top 25 of GIDPs every year, you basically see a who's who (included in 2015:  Cabrera, Bautista, Frazier, Adrian Gonazlez, Braun, Adam Jones, Pollock, Salvordor Perez, Kendrys Morales, Cano, Mauer, Fielder, etc.....Guess who's 28th on the list...Lucroy with 18)

 

Plouffe is the kind of player that doesn't anything do spectacular, but does many things very well.  He's a very valuable player to this team.  Trading Plouffe or Hicks would be a bad move, IMO.  Trading Plouffe and Hicks plus prospects for a catcher who averages roughly 400 ABs and 11 HRs a season....and posted a WAR of 1.0 last year (lower than Plouffe 2.5, HIcks 1.3) would be an awful decision.  They'd be paying for 2014, which he'll likely never match again.  They can find cheaper defense at catcher, and they don't need his offense (which is "meh" aside from '14).

 

If you're trading Plouffe AND Hicks AND prospects...you better be getting some pitching in return, because there goes a whole bunch of defense.  Do you propose Danny Santana play center field when Buxton starts the year in AAA?  What do you do if Park is awful, rely on Vargas?  Do think Park should get 600+ PAs?  Or, what if Mauer gets hurt again?  Or, Sano gets hurt again?  It's a disaster waiting to happen....and it most certainly would.

 

This is not wrong but I take some umbrage with your assertion that Buxton needs to start the year in AAA. This is far from proven and I'll take it a step farther and say that unless the Twins keep Plouffe and Rosario and really put Sano in Right, Buxton will make opening day.  He just needs every day reps at the MLB level, he has nothing left to prove in the minors. Regardless, if Hicks was dealt (and agreed that the Lucroy trade is ludicrous - Plouffe would likely not be enough but it isn't Hicks too) Buxton would start in CF to start the year.

[Squirrel]

There are some agonizing questions afloat, no doubt; what will be will be. And I have no idea what that is. Neither does anyone. And it's sometimes just plain maddening and frustrating to not know. While you are free to vent here, and I'm not discouraging that (as long as it remains ... passionately civil), perhaps try venting by coming up with your own off-season plan here? Play GM ... give us your entire off-season plan. What would you do rather than just 'arghing' over what TR has done, hasn't done, skeptical he will or won't do.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The Brewers sent Ryan Braun to the outfield at age 24 after playing his entire career at 3rd base. He went on to make the All Star game, finished 3rd in MVP voting, and the Brewers won 90 games and won the Wildcard. The Marlins had Miguel Cabrera play 3 games in the outfield in AA before calling him up at age 20. He played the rest of the season in the outfield and helped the Marlins win the World Series. Further, the Twins have shown for years now that they don't value plus defense at corner outfield positions (Stewart, Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Willingham). I don't think it is absurd at all that they would consider moving Sano in the outfield. 

Good examples but neither of those guys were anywhere near the size of Sano when they made that transition. Even still, Cabrera was an incredibly bad outfielder. Braun is just an athletic freak. 

[DaveW]

Meh, I am not a huge Ryan fan anymore, but I gotta say I like what he has done this far this offseason.

 

I think it's far too early to say he isn't going to trade plouffe as well. I'm willing to give him a few months until I rip him for this off season personally

[Shaitan]

I'd argue he's doing pretty well to get anything at all out of Hermann's roster spot.

[DaveW]

I'd argue he's doing pretty well to get anything at all out of Hermann's roster spot.

for sure