Dozier

DaveW · September 17, 2015

Last 40 games:

.196 batting average. .601 OPS 4 HR

Lot of talk about him being the team MVP and the best 2nd baseman in baseball.

Sorry, that will never be a reasonable opinion until the guy actually shows up for the 2nd half in a season. Not sure what is wrong, conditioning? Focus? The worst luck ever multiple years in a row?

Either way, dozier may have been the Twins MVP of the first half, but without a doubt has been one of the least valuable players of the second half. Time to move him down to 7 or 8 in the lineup and move Escobar or anyone up.

Look to trade him in the offseason potentially, a team with playoff aspirations can't afford to put up with these let downs when it counts.

DaveW · September 17, 2015

For reference:

Suzuki last 40 games: .668

Robinson last 40 games: .634

Time to step up and earn that contract Brian! Less practicing on your dance moves and more batting cage time.

Twinfan603 · September 17, 2015

I love Dozier but he does need to be moved down in the order. I don't want to be too critical but what the hell has Bruno been doing to fix this over the past few weeks?

Ben B · September 17, 2015

I wonder if he could do with a few more games off. He's only sat three times this season, and only six times last season. Move him down or give him a couple days off. He looks gassed and frustrated out there.

Turd Furgeson · September 17, 2015

I just did a quick search at fangraphs and apparently Brian Dozier is having the most extreme pull% in the past 10 years, at 61%. He's a flawed hitter that just isn't good at using the entire field to hit, up to this point. Teams are putting the shift on him and he's not getting pitches to pull anymore but he's still trying to pull them.

Ben B · September 17, 2015

I hadn't thought about the shift, but that's a good point too. Purely anecdotal, but he seems to hit into more hard outs than anyone on the team. Lots of line drives right at the third baseman and left fielder.

huhguy · September 17, 2015

He is out of gas, he needs to take a game off, and soon

h2oface · September 17, 2015

These guys need to use the offseason to really get in shape to last a whole season. And I don't just mean Dozier. Maybe they should hang with Berrios. He knows what getting in shape to last is all about..... even if they did make him stop. He was ready.

Reider · September 17, 2015

In Dozier's case, I don't think the issue is a lack of physical conditioning; my guess is that it's more along the lines of mental exhaustion and he could probably use a few days off. It's a long season and they shouldn't be so afraid to give players a day off every now and then. Players can always pinch hit late in the game if they have to.

Badsmerf · September 17, 2015

Cal ripken never needed a day off. I don't think it is that easy. It's more about him not being able to adjust than anything else. I'm sure Parker is already stealing the thunder about him as we speak.

notoriousgod71 · September 17, 2015

I just did a quick search at fangraphs and apparently Brian Dozier is having the most extreme pull% in the past 10 years, at 61%. He's a flawed hitter that just isn't good at using the entire field to hit, up to this point. Teams are putting the shift on him and he's not getting pitches to pull anymore but he's still trying to pull them.

I find it ironic that the Twins brass loves Dozier's approach but wants everyone to use the whole field. Apparently being a nice, charming guy is enough to overlook his warts.

Shane Wahl · September 17, 2015

Cal ripken never needed a day off. I don't think it is that easy. It's more about him not being able to adjust than anything else. I'm sure Parker is already stealing the thunder about him as we speak.

Come on. Ripken was a great baseball player. He would have been greater with some days off. I am not sure that this is even close to being debatable. I bet Dozier didn't want any days off. Too bad.

It is shocking how Molitor just repeated the same terrible overuse of Dozier after what happened last season. Even just one more day a month . . .

diehardtwinsfan · September 17, 2015

yeah, I think Brian would be served by taking a few days off from time to time during the first half. I'd add to it that he probably needs to change his offseason work out routine to focus on endurance. 162 games is a long season.

USAFChief · September 17, 2015

I don't think more time off has anything to do with it. A day off in June won't help in September. Nor is there any reason to think it would help in June, for that matter, outside of injury situations.

I think he's got it in his head he is a HR hitter, when in reality he isn't. He sells out to pull, everything, all the time. His problems are the opposite of Mauer, who thinks "walk" in every AB, and "slap it the other way" when forced to swing. Dozier thinks "HR" every AB, and has only one way to do that.

twinsnorth49 · September 17, 2015

I don't think more time has anything to do with it.

I think he's got it in his head he is a HR hitter, when in reality he isn't.

This

Platoon · September 17, 2015

I find it ironic that the Twins brass loves Dozier's approach but wants everyone to use the whole field. Apparently being a nice, charming guy is enough to overlook his warts.

This has been a complaint of mine for years with the Twins. It's what I sarcastically refer to as the "Twins Way". There is no consistency how players are handled. Some are allowed to "pull" at historic rates, under the Mendoza line, and some are sent to exile in Rochester. Doziers real problem is not exhaustion. It's the simple fact that he can only hit successfully in a very small segment of the strike zone. Pitchers have about 75% of the zone to work with, and they refuse to throw him anything up and in. Don't watch the pitch. Watch the catcher setup. A rare one will be down and in, none will be up. Granted, everyone hits mistakes, it's just that his sweet spot is not only small, it's up and in, where a lot of pitchers don't go anyway.

Platoon · September 17, 2015

I don't think more time has anything to do with it.
I think he's got it in his head he is a HR hitter, when in reality he isn't.

My thought when he went to the ASG to compete in the HR contest. To me that was a sign that he over appreciated his own power. He's overall a good ball player, but watching him hit reminds me of my softball days. Mediocre hitters trying to pull everything over the fence, and hitting a lot of fly balls short of the fence.

nicksaviking · September 17, 2015

I find it ironic that the Twins brass loves Dozier's approach but wants everyone to use the whole field. Apparently being a nice, charming guy is enough to overlook his warts.

I think Dozier's approach was specificly engineered by the club to take advangatge of Target Field's weak point. Dozier didn't have this approach or swing when he was initially called up and struggled. His current tendancies only happened after the Twins saw extreme pull hitter Josh Willingham beat what had previously been thought of as an unbeatable park.

awinter · September 17, 2015

Chattanooga's season is almost finished. Bring up Polanco after the Lookouts win the championship and sit Dozier a few times a week. If you like what you see from Jorge, put Dozier on the trading block in the offseason. I know Jorge's been playing SS, but let's be real- he has a very slim chance of being a good defensive SS. Also, I'm not suggesting the Twins should trade Dozier no matter what. I think they should see what they can get for him. If they do trade him and Jorge can hit .275/.335/.375 (slightly below his minor league career slash line), then it's not much of a downgrade overall. Plus, you get a shiny new prospect or two from the trade.

DaveW · September 17, 2015

I wish Rosario could still play 2nd

ThejacKmp · September 17, 2015

Last 40 games:

.196 batting average. .601 OPS 4 HR

Lot of talk about him being the team MVP and the best 2nd baseman in baseball.

Sorry, that will never be a reasonable opinion until the guy actually shows up for the 2nd half in a season. Not sure what is wrong, conditioning? Focus? The worst luck ever multiple years in a row?

What is interesting about this is not that he's had a bad second half this year but that you think he had a bad one last year. His splits before and after the break last year:

.242 .340 .436 .776

.244 .352 .387 .739

There's a fall off in slugging but an increase in OBP. Overall this is not much of a drop off. The narrative is almost entirely driven by the differences in his home runs, which we focus on too much. Dozier had 18 HR to 5 HR between the two halves but also had 16 doubles and no triples vs 17 doubles and one triple. As the first half has 100 more at bats than the second half, the real story is a little less pop with some home runs turning into doubles. This myth of Dozier falling apart in the second half last year colors the way we look at Dozier this year. He's slumping but a strong finish here could change that entirely.

As for trading him, that's ludicrous. He's on a fairly team friendly deal and the Twins cupboard is bare other than him. You'd be starting Nunez at 2B or transitioning an unproven Polanco to 2B at the major league level. I don't have to look up his numbers to know that isn't an improvement. Did we all forget the Alexi Casilla/Luis Rivas years? The Twins haven't had a competent 2B since Knoblauch. We should enjoy Dozier, not trade him away.

This is just another reactionary Twins Daily post. Why can't we ever focus on the positives? In the most amazingly fun year of Twins baseball this decade, most articles, posts and comments descend into ripping into TR/Mauer/TR/Molitor/TR/Pelfrey/TR/Boyer/TR/Fien/TR. We get that the Twins aren't perfect and that we're all smarter than TR but lets keep things a bit more positive? This is supposed to be fun.

Major League Ready · September 17, 2015

I don't think more time off has anything to do with it. A day off in June won't help in September. Nor is there any reason to think it would help in June, for that matter, outside of injury situations.

I think he's got it in his head he is a HR hitter, when in reality he isn't. He sells out to pull, everything, all the time. His problems are the opposite of Mauer, who thinks "walk" in every AB, and "slap it the other way" when forced to swing. Dozier thinks "HR" every AB, and has only one way to do that.

I think you are right, Chief. A little time off would not hurt but he tries to pull absolutely everything. The pitchers and defense has adjusted. It also does not help that he swung at ball 4 three times in one at bat last night

Dantes929 · September 17, 2015

I don't think more time off has anything to do with it. A day off in June won't help in September. Nor is there any reason to think it would help in June, for that matter, outside of injury situations.

I think he's got it in his head he is a HR hitter, when in reality he isn't. He sells out to pull, everything, all the time. His problems are the opposite of Mauer, who thinks "walk" in every AB, and "slap it the other way" when forced to swing. Dozier thinks "HR" every AB, and has only one way to do that.

I certainly don't think it has anything to do with physical conditioning but that doesn't mean a day off here and there wouldn't help mentally. Just like the all star break often seems to break momentum either good or bad I think a couple games off in a row might give him a fresh start. Its not like putting Nunez out there would be a step down the way Dozier has been playing. All these guys should be thinking hit it up the middle and then let pitch location dictate where it is hit. He will still pull the ball a lot because that is his swing but it shouldn't be his goal..

Kwak · September 17, 2015

When Dozier signed his contract it included "elevated status"--he belongs to the club. Recall it's Dozier's face that is on the folding schedule for 2015. Dozier is permitted (encouraged?) to play to hit HRs and to generate buzz/sell tickets. The Twins finagled to get Dozier in the ASG to help their "marketing". Bottom line--Dozier will not be change his swing to "hit to RF" or "get more walks"--he's doing exactly what the Twins want him to do!

stringer bell · September 17, 2015

I don't remember much of a fall-off in 2013. Last year, the homers quit coming in the second half, but as noted above he reached base more and replaced homers with doubles. Doubtless, he has really regressed this season and the pull numbers are there to show what type of hitter he has become.

I expected him to modify his approach this year, but that hasn't happened. I still believe he's been the Twins best overall player for the season, but he has been far from elite since the All-Star game.

nytwinsfan · September 17, 2015

Yeah, I think he needs a day off every couple of weeks. He faded towards the end of last season too.

Major League Ready · September 17, 2015

When Dozier signed his contract it included "elevated status"--he belongs to the club. Recall it's Dozier's face that is on the folding schedule for 2015. Dozier is permitted (encouraged?) to play to hit HRs and to generate buzz/sell tickets. The Twins finagled to get Dozier in the ASG to help their "marketing". Bottom line--Dozier will not be change his swing to "hit to RF" or "get more walks"--he's doing exactly what the Twins want him to do!

How can you possibly make this statement in any form of fact. I have heard literally thousands of these statements over the course of 20+ years in consulting and 98% of them have little or no validity. If you want to postulate that the FO is directing Dozier's approach, ok. To make a statement with this degree of certainty is ridiculous.

Halsey Hall · September 17, 2015

What he needs is an off season off. He'll get it soon.

TheLeviathan · September 17, 2015

I've been saying it for awhile, his erratic production really makes me worry about him as a long term investment.

nicksaviking · September 17, 2015

I've been saying it for awhile, his erratic production really makes me worry about him as a long term investment.

Luckily he isn't then. The deal he signed didn't buy out any free agent years.

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