Gonsalves vs Berrios

[DocBauer]

First of all, this is not intended to be another debate about Berrios and should he have been brought up and extended, or, should he have been brought up earlier, (which means he'd be at an IP limit now anyway), or, should he have been limited to relief innings in order to save him for the majors, (which I also find severely debatable as it seems to me a top SP prospect should actually be a starter, IMHO).

 

And while we still have the AFL to look forward to, as well as a pair of teams in the milb playoffs...(BTW, is there something wrong with the system when top winning teams don't qualify for the post season because they didn't "win" a first or second half of the season?)...we no longer have our wonderful morning reports to the milb season which is, unfortunately, ended. So I felt it was a good time to bring this subject up.

 

As I stated the other day in another thread, Berrios seems to be something special. I think it's ridiculous to attempt to pronounce him as a future ACE or future #1 because that's just so damn hard to predict or expect. And Berrios IS ahead of Gonsalves right now on prospect lists, as well as higher up in the system, but I have felt since he was drafted that Gonsalves was a potential steal. And despite strong conversation, I also think he's been rather overlooked, at times, because of Berrios' season. Consider the following numbers:

 

13 W - 3 L 134.1 IP 95 Hits 53 BB. 132 SO 2.01 ERA. .198 AVG 1.10 WHIP

 

WOW! This was at low A and high A for a split season...but...WOW. If not for Berrios, this our top SP prospect and probably milb SP of the year.

 

Berrios and Gonsalves are both 21, relative pups, with Berrios only 6 weeks older. However, professionally, though Berrios is a couple levels higher currently than Gonsalves, he was drafted a year before and has an additional year of pro instruction and experience. And for whatever reason, Gonsalves' second pro season, 2014, was only 14 GS as he spent a bulk of the year in EST for reasons I'm unaware of, or don't recall. These two factors could easily wedge a year and a half discrepancy between the two in regard to level advancement. These two do not have a season that compares directly. HOWEVER, we can, somewhat, compare their third seasons, a full season for both, a split season for both. 2014 for Berrios and the previously listed '15 for Gonsalves. And while it was Berrios' second full season, it was Gonsalves' first, and the levels were slightly different: Berrios at A and AA, Gonsalves A- and A+. Close enough, under all circumstances, to at least pause and compare, I believe. So...Berrios in 2014:

 

12 W 8 L 140 IP 118 Hits 38 BB. 140 SO .2.76 ERA. 227 AVG 1.11 WHIP

 

Right now, Berrios is further up the ladder rung, with the extra year of pro ball contingency. Whether or not he breaks camp with the Twins to begin next season is debatable, but he will be in the majors in 2016. It is also debatable as to whether Gonsalves will break camp with AA Chattanooga, or begin the season at high A initially before moving up. If it's AA, there's a very good chance he sees Rochester at some point. If it's Ft Myers, his shot at AAA becomes smaller. Or, another way of putting it, Berrios reaches the majors at the ripe old age of 22, while Gonsalves probably doesn't get his first taste of ML Java until he's an ancient 23.

 

Now, the proverbial monkey wrench. Not only is Gonsalves, almost the same age as Berrios, a year to arguably a year and a half behind in professional game experience, but he is also listed as 5" taller, presumably with room to grow and fill out a bit more than the 6' Berrios...(though we know size vs velocity is not a pure correlation, much less pure pitch ability, but it is a factor to consider)...but he is also, of course, left handed. And not only is a LH of quality harder to find, but it has long been believed, and seemingly true, that they take longer to develop.

 

So all things factored, and no disrespect to either extremely talented and important young man...long term...which do you feel may ultimately be the best and most prized, and ultimately, most successful pitcher?

[ashbury]

No clue. They both have a chance to be special.

[Rosterman]

The Twins have the opportunity to build a starting rotation out of the minor leagues and have ALL homegrown talent for the 2018-2019 season, and they might be pretty darn good, briunging up one new arm each season.

 

And the chances seem better than 50/50 that this will happen, and all the Twins have to hope for is that names like Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Noalsco become prime tradebait (oh, and Milone). 

 

We may forget about May and Meyer being rotation arms and be happy if they become first-class bullpen arms before the crop of talented guys (Jay, Burdi, Reed, Jones et all) also hit the majors in the next 2-3 years.

[Badsmerf]

Berrios with a bullet. Gonsalves hit some bumps in fort Meyers, wouldn't surprise me to see him and Stewart both start there. At this point, berrios is easy top 25 prospect while if be surprised if Gonsalves makes the list yet. Not that rankings are everything, but I'm willing to bet most would put their money on Berrios.

[Seth Stohs]

Berrios is the better prospect, but Gonsalves had just as good of a 2015. Gonsalves took a big step forward. He's a legit prospect. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Berrios and it's not particularly close.

 

They're close to the same age but Berrios dominated AAA hitters while Gonsalves scuffled a bit against A+ hitters. Berrios has near-elite control while Gonsalves walked 4.3 per 9.

 

That's not a knock on Gonsalves, though... He's a fine prospect. Berrios, on the other hand, has vaulted himself into elite prospect territory with his 2015 performance. Gonsalves may be on a more traditional prospect track... Hit a few bumps along the way, recover, and then promote. Berrios is on a fast track program where he doesn't miss a beat.

[clutterheart]

They are similar because both have "flaws" that scouts don't like.

 

From what I read scouts don't love Gonsalves's pitches. 

And clearly Ryan is not in love with Berrios's stature.  

 

Both have done well despite their negative reports but I suspect the organization will be cautious with both.  

[nicksaviking]

I like Gonsalves and think he can overcome his struggles at Ft. Myers, but that large jump in walks was only topped in concern by his even larger drop in strikeouts. 

 

I'm going to want to see those things corrected before I get as hyped about him as I am Barrios.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

And clearly Ryan is not in love with Berrios's stature.  

 

 

Did Ryan make a comment that I missed?

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Did Ryan make a comment that I missed?

 

One of the reasons he's not up is that he's only 5 11 and they need to be careful with him.....or something like that.

 

I don't think there is any way to say Berrios isn't clearly the more likely better prospect right now, and it isn't close. Not saying Gonsalves isn't a good prospect, he is. But Berrios is a top 20 prospect.....

[Shane Wahl]

Berrios by a medium margin.

 

Gonsalves should probably have a similar season in 2016 as he did in 2015, with about half in Fort Myers and half in Chattanooga. ETA is 2018. It will be interesting to see how far the velocity climbs for him.

[Monkeypaws]

 

One of the reasons he's not up is that he's only 5 11 and they need to be careful with him.....or something like that.

 

I don't think there is any way to say Berrios isn't clearly the more likely better prospect right now, and it isn't close. Not saying Gonsalves isn't a good prospect, he is. But Berrios is a top 20 prospect.....

Then again, we saw the same caution with Meyer and Gibson, who are huge guys.

[clank2000]

Don't know a whole lot about Gonsalves' pitch makeup. Is Frankie V a good comp?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Berrios hit some bumps in Cedar Rapids his first full season, but on the flip side, he was more polished than Gonsalves in that he didn't need the EST time if I remember right.  He's a better prospect right now.  Though I do agree that Gonsalves could also be special.  They both have #1 ceilings, though I'd say that Berrios has a MLB regular floor at this point (while Gonsalves is still too far away) and Berrios is much more likely to reach his ceiling (though reaching a #1 status is still not what I consider highly probable). 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Then again, we saw the same caution with Meyer and Gibson, who are huge guys.

 

I was merely answering the question asked, not opining at all. Ryan said the words about Berrios only being 5 11......

[HitInAPinch]

At their point in development, I doesn't make sense to me to compare Berrios to Gonsalves.  Gonsalves has moved up through A-ball at a steady pace.  AA sometime next year.

 

Just for the record:  Ryan's quote on not bringing up Berrios:

 

"It was difficult," Ryan said. "We're all sensitive to the innings, and there's no question that's a factor. He's also about 5-foot-11, 187 pounds, so it's not like this is a 6-4, 200-pounder. So I'm a little concerned we don't do any damage when he's built up a good resume."

[nytwinsfan]

Berrios had notably better BB rates, was at least 2 levels higher, and Gonsalves was just decent at Fort Myers, where his K rate noticeably declined. Don't get me wrong, Gonsalves is an intriguing top-10 prospect, but he's not Berrios.

[nicksaviking]

 

One of the reasons he's not up is that he's only 5 11 and they need to be careful with him.....or something like that.

 

 

I assume that's just the narrative around here based on conjecture then? 

 

I think Berrios should have been called up and placed in the pen back in July, but I'd guess his height didn't play a role in the decision.  He didn't shrink since they drafted him.  I chalk it up to the very conservative nature of the men in charge and less than ideal planning regarding workload earlier this year.

[bird]

Lewis Thorpe.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

I assume that's just the narrative around here based on conjecture then? 

 

I think Berrios should have been called up and placed in the pen back in July, but I'd guess his height didn't play a role in the decision.  He didn't shrink since they drafted him.  I chalk it up to the very conservative nature of the men in charge and less than ideal planning regarding workload earlier this year.

 

see above for the quote, Nick. It's not some narrative people made up. Sigh.

[howieramone2]

 

I assume that's just the narrative around here based on conjecture then? 

 

I think Berrios should have been called up and placed in the pen back in July, but I'd guess his height didn't play a role in the decision.  He didn't shrink since they drafted him.  I chalk it up to the very conservative nature of the men in charge and less than ideal planning regarding workload earlier this year.

Take a look at the numbers Berrios put up in June.

[Clyde123]

First, I'm not saying these two were/are the same type of prospects but I thought it would be interesting to compare the stats between Jose Berrios and Yohan Pino, only because they are on the small size and I was hopeful for Pino back in the day.  Pino 2005 through 2009 compared to Berrios 2012 through 2015. Eerily similar at comparable ages.  AA seemed to give Pino more trouble.

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=621244#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=464416#/career/R/pitching/2015/ALL

 

[bird]

What Ryan said about Berrios was both sensible and innocuous if we don't try to read something into it that's not there. He mentioned the workload first, and secondly his physical stature as reasons to take precautions with Berrios. Nothing wrong with that, is there? He was getting reports all the time from Berrios's minor league managers, and he's seen him firsthand as well.

 

Shutting Berrios down doesn't indicate some kind of bias against pitchers of a certain height, and in fact, there are many prospects of smaller stature, like Berrios and Pino's, in the system, and they're not being babied or treated differently than the other pitchers. One only needs to look at Sickle's recent article singling out four MILB pitchers who flew under the radar this year to find his first pick was Mat Batts, a smaller guy who threw a lot of innings and went deep in a lot of games at two levels.

 

So, the precaution is about guys wearing down. Physical stature is not a determinant in shutting a guy down, but it's a possible partial cause of getting worn down.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure anyone was suggesting anything non innocuous.......we were just pointing out that Ryan mentioned it as one reason he was shut down. It wasn't something someone made up on the site, we just quoted Ryan w/o judgement. It is others putting some kind of judgement out there......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Berrios had notably better BB rates, was at least 2 levels higher, and Gonsalves was just decent at Fort Myers, where his K rate noticeably declined. Don't get me wrong, Gonsalves is an intriguing top-10 prospect, but he's not Berrios.

Likewise, Berrios' K rate dropped in his first taste of AA, which is why I suspect Gonsalves could start out at high-A next year again.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

First, I'm not saying these two were/are the same type of prospects but I thought it would be interesting to compare the stats between Jose Berrios and Yohan Pino, only because they are on the small size and I was hopeful for Pino back in the day.  Pino 2005 through 2009 compared to Berrios 2012 through 2015. Eerily similar at comparable ages.  AA seemed to give Pino more trouble.

Huh?  Comparable ages?  Pino was 3-4 year older at the same levels, and had a notably worse K rate (and probably other stats too) despite pitching some out of the bullpen.  No eerie similarity here at all.

[Dman]

I don't love the comp as Berrios was a very fast mover, but I do love Gonsalves.  The thing they seem to have in common to me is their intense dedication to their craft.  They both seem to be guys that go above and beyond to prepare to pitch.  If they stay healthy they will both be good starters in MLB.

[Vanimal46]

see above for the quote, Nick. It's not some narrative people made up. Sigh.

I'm right there with you thinking that narrative was nothing more than a made up hot Twins take here on TD. I can't believe that's an actual quote....

[Guest]

I do think it's an unfair comparison at this point. Berrios is on the big league doorstep at 21 years old and Gonsalves is more distantly removed from that opportunity.

 

With Gonsalves, he was often able to dominate MWL hitters without having to have his best stuff. He was just better than they were. Seeing FSL hitters, I suspect he was working more with pitching coach Ivan Arteaga on improving his pitches.

 

He worked very hard last offseason and I think we can be confident that his inability to dominate the FSL will motivate him to work even harder to prepare for 2016. Can’t wait to see how he does next season.

 

Also, Lewis Thorpe was mentioned. He was in CR a week or so ago and said he was going to be starting to play catch from 30 feet or so when he got back to Fort Myers (where he’ll be spending his offseason this year).

 

[Loosey]

I'll be ok if the Twins have Ace 1A and Ace 1B. 

 

But in all seriousness I think right now Berrios is the better prospect.  But I think Gonsalves is going to be great.  Berrios has proven he can dominate at high levels of the minors while Gonsalves has dominated the lower levels and pitched well in high A.  As he hones is craft he could also dominate the higher levels as he moves up, but he hasn't yet.

 

I have read that Gonsalves was basically blowing guys away with fastball in MWL and had to start throwing a better curve in FSL.  I think the increase in walks can be attributed to working on throwing curves as well as better hitters.  As he develops that pitch I wouldn't be surprised to see early season Fort Myers results similar to what we saw in Cedar Rapids last season before a bump to Chattanooga next season.