Season is not over

[Mike Sixel]

Any of want to bet? I say under 82 wins. And, the insider article on ESPN was not complimentary.

[drivlikejehu]

I would rather he stood pat than give away a borderline top 10 organizational prospect for nothing.

 

Just the idea of Ryan making trades in general is a scary proposition... To many of his counterparts are vastly better at their job than he is.

[jimmer]

 

Any of want to bet? I say under 82 wins. And, the insider article on ESPN was not complimentary.

I'd still be happy with 75 wins.  With the way they are playing and their remaining schedule I doubt we go 28-30 or better to finish the year.

[drivlikejehu]

I love how all those posters said it was almost impossible to finish under .500 given where the Twins were at around their season peak.

 

I assured them it was very possible.

[USAFChief]

 

I love how all those posters said it was almost impossible to finish under .500 given where the Twins were at around their season peak.

I assured them it was very possible.

Congratulations.

[ashbury]

Any of want to bet? I say under 82 wins. And, the insider article on ESPN was not complimentary.

I believe I checked in at 80, last time someone mounted a mid-season over-under when we were like 9 games over. Now the pendulum has swung the other way and even 80 feels high; but the baseball takes funny bounces so I'll stick with that. It's higher than I was guessing at the beginning of the year.

[SwainZag]

 

I love how all those posters said it was almost impossible to finish under .500 given where the Twins were at around their season peak.

I assured them it was very possible.

 

I remember seeing posts how it was very unlikely the team could still finish worse than last year's team but not under .500.

[drjim]

 

I love how all those posters said it was almost impossible to finish under .500 given where the Twins were at around their season peak.

I assured them it was very possible.

 

Things starting to look up in your world I see.

[jorgenswest]

Perkins was nearly perfect in the first half leading to a very good record. That wasn't going to continue. Has he blown 4 games since the break? Had he been able to stay perfect all of the other real Twin issues would not have been as exposed.

 

Relative to their position, they are getting poor production from 1B, RF, C and SS. Shortstop and right field were closer to the median at 81 games but have fallen off. RF and 1B are offense first positions and have been very inadequate.

 

Very few members of their bullpen could make the pen of the other contenders. Would the Royals be able to use anyone other than Perkins?

 

Pinch hitting is a huge void compared to other teams.

 

That is a lot of stuff to fix that was there a month ago and not as exposed with the perfection of Perkins.

 

As they move into winter, they have three position players that are In the bottom third at their positions and in decline. They can not be expected to be better next year. They can take a big step next year if they can fix 1B, RF and C.

[DaveW]

ORouke and May would be able to stick on a lot of contending teams bullpens. Jepsen too

[drjim]

I suspect we all agree that Toronto is going to blow past everyone and easily claim the first wildcard and possibly even challenge the Yanks.

 

What is interesting to me is the 2nd wildcard. As mentioned in other threads, the Angels are kind of in freef all and Trout is hobbling. Twins are only 1.5 games behind them.

 

O's are a half game behind the Twins. I downplayed their odds, but maybe they can outlast everyone. But they aren't clearly better than the Twins in my mind.

 

This swoon aside Twins can still hang with those two teams. And if they do hang around, no reason they can still pick up an arm or two for the stretch drive in the next couple of weeks.

 

So ends my optimistic rant.

[h2oface]

A shortstop like Tulo rarely ever becomes available. I have been in depression ever since Ryan didn't get him, or really even try. This idea that minor league depth wins major league games, or that any will become a star, is a way to be a minor league fan all one's life. There is only one of each position - it never serves a team well to let the assets go past their "best by" or "expiration" date. May as well make some choices and trade some of the leftovers and let them expire in/on another team's farm. Bye bye wild card, hello cellar? Yes, the season is not over yet, and our Twins are only 5.5 games out of last in the Central, and 7.5 games out of last place in the American league, but still tied for the last wild card, but with no improvements made to compete, and now the closer can't close a game. The Dog Days of August are upon us.

[Kwak]

"... the season isn't over...".  True there are two more months of baseball to play--but this team has run-up the "I Quit Flag".  Scoring is minimal. Singles?  Admitted they used to be a team that basically only hit singles--now they rarely get them.  Walks?  Outside of Sano, who is often "pitched around", they are virtually non-existent.  It seems as if everyone is swinging for the fences on every PA (except when ordered to bunt        ).  Folks it isn't just the bullpen, the hitters too!  Curiously, not the starting pitchers--they are "battlin' their tails off" (to steal a phase)--but if they phone it in disaster.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Things starting to look up in your world I see.

 

Actually I find losing to be rather dull, especially after all the losses the Twins have piled up in recent seasons.

 

I merely pointed to reality - the Twins weren't actually that good even when their record was. They can't hit and have no bullpen, and only an OK rotation.

 

The tailspin isn't even what concerns me - it's that the Twins are doing a horrible job building up for future seasons. Traded a decent prospect for nothing, May is in the bullpen, Pelfrey hangs around, they've botched Arcia's development, etc. 

 

Most posters have this idea that, regardless of what happens for the rest of 2015... 2016, 2017, 2018 look promising. There is very little evidence to support that view, but it is barely challenged on here. My view has been consistent for years: the Twins would bring up enough young talent to be a decent club, but that a poor front office would hold them back.

 

That's exactly what is happening, and I don't see what's wrong with being somewhat frustrated as a fan in light of that.

[USAFChief]

 

 

 

Most posters have this idea that, regardless of what happens for the rest of 2015... 2016, 2017, 2018 look promising. There is very little evidence to support that view, 

I don't know about "very little" evidence, but I concur 100% that if the front office just sits back and expects this team to be good because they had a highly rated minor league system last year, the "window" will always be two years out on the horizon.

 

 

[Badsmerf]

I don't think you'll find much resistance to that idea. I believe in some of the guys on this team to grind it out and play solid baseball the rest of the way. I don't really think they will make the playoffs, but I didn't think they would even at the peak of the season.

 

I do think they can make it interesting down the stretch though. Enough to put pressure on teams above them and keep us all complaining about why boyer is still getting innings in front of the bat boy.

[jimbo92107]

I know this much from doctor shows: Preventive medicine is much less effective after the patient is dead.

 

Also, I slept at a Motel 6. Some years ago.

[drjim]

 

Actually I find losing to be rather dull, especially after all the losses the Twins have piled up in recent seasons.

 

I merely pointed to reality - the Twins weren't actually that good even when their record was. They can't hit and have no bullpen, and only an OK rotation.

 

The tailspin isn't even what concerns me - it's that the Twins are doing a horrible job building up for future seasons. Traded a decent prospect for nothing, May is in the bullpen, Pelfrey hangs around, they've botched Arcia's development, etc. 

 

Most posters have this idea that, regardless of what happens for the rest of 2015... 2016, 2017, 2018 look promising. There is very little evidence to support that view, but it is barely challenged on here. My view has been consistent for years: the Twins would bring up enough young talent to be a decent club, but that a poor front office would hold them back.

 

That's exactly what is happening, and I don't see what's wrong with being somewhat frustrated as a fan in light of that.

 

The beauty of baseball is you start with an 80% chance of being right. Now matter how promising the next 5-7 years look and how perfect (or imperfect) the moves, likely they don't make a World Series.

[bluechipper]

 

 

• I was watching MLB Network quite a bit at the deadline and the night before the deadline they were shocked, based on where we were in the standings, that they was barely a whisper about the Twins and then they chuckled the next day at the signing we had saying that, apparently, the Twins are a juggernaut and don't need help.

 

This is something that's been annoying me lately about MLB Network. They always rave about the young up and coming stars on the Astros, Mets, and Cubs, but they seem to forget that the Twins are likely on the same path in terms of young players, if not better.

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is something that's been annoying me lately about MLB Network. They always rave about the young up and coming stars on the Astros, Mets, and Cubs, but they seem to forget that the Twins are likely on the same path in terms of young players, if not better.

 

which player has dominated like Correa or Bryant?

 

and, why does anyone care what national people say or don't say? What difference does it make?

[bluechipper]

 

which player has dominated like Correa or Bryant?

 

and, why does anyone care what national people say or don't say? What difference does it make?

It has more to do with how the Twins have had basically the same record as those three teams for the entire season, yet the talk is always about the looming dynasty for the other three.  And I would say that Miguel Sano is well on his way to having as good a season as Bryant, just with less ABs- which I know could very well change, but Bryant hasn't dominated.

 

Having said that, I agree that it doesn't really matter what the national people say, but it would be nice to get some more respect.

[Mike Sixel]

Sano has been great, agreed......

 

Bryant is 20th in WAR in all of the majors....what would he have to do to "dominate"?

[gocgo]

Couple of thoughts.

 

1. Meaningful games in August!  If you would have told me that in March, I would have taken it.  I said I wanted a team that was competitive.  Up to this point, they have been. I've gotten my wish.

 

2. Tulo.  He may look good now, but that contract would have been a disaster for the Twins for the future and the odds of him staying healthy are less than 20 percent.

 

3. The post AS skid has been against good teams who are playing well.  This shows that we aren't quite there yet and we all knew that.  So, rather than going all in this year, I'd like to see the Twins play it out, address the needs in the offseason, and continue to give the young guys valuable experience.  If we make the playoffs, it's gravy on the icing on the cake.

[bluechipper]

 

Sano has been great, agreed......

 

Bryant is 20th in WAR in all of the majors....what would he have to do to "dominate"?

I don't really understand how he is that high in WAR. He's definitely been good, but his OPS is .791 compared to Trevor Plouffe's .769. I wouldn't say that he's been dominant either. You could make the argument that Bryant is just a rookie, but either way that's not dominant for someone with as much hype as Bryant had.

[mickeymental]

 

Sano has been great, agreed......

 

Bryant is 20th in WAR in all of the majors....what would he have to do to "dominate"?

looks to me like bryant is 20th in WAR at fangraphs and 55th at espn. if so, can someone please explain how WAR is meaningful in any way? or am i missing something?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't really understand how he is that high in WAR. He's definitely been good, but his OPS is .791 compared to Trevor Plouffe's .769.

Bryant has a 3-6 run advantage over Plouffe in baserunning alone.  Add to that a 10% advantage in OPS+, and not much difference in defensive metrics at this point, and Bryant is going to beat Plouffe in WAR.

[Jham]

Who do we have in the minors who figures to be more than a bit piece on a contending team next year? Hoping a bunch of middle of the road prospects suddenly bloom into stars at the same time isn't going to work. Allowing guys like sano, buxton, and perhaps Arcia work through their youth makes sense if you think they're sure major league difference makers. Hoping for guys like Tonkin and achter to turn into playoff quality players. ..

[bluechipper]

 

Bryant has a 3-6 run advantage over Plouffe in baserunning alone.  Add to that a 10% advantage in OPS+, and not much difference in defensive metrics at this point, and Bryant is going to beat Plouffe in WAR.

I don't understand that baserunning metric. Bryant and Brian Dozier are within 1 SB of each other, yet Bryant has a rating of 5.4 compared to Dozier's 2.9. Could there really be that big of a gap between the two in other areas of baserunning? And how is Bryant #2 in all of baseball in that metric, behind only Billy Hamilton?

[bluechipper]

 

Who do we have in the minors who figures to be more than a bit piece on a contending team next year? Hoping a bunch of middle of the road prospects suddenly bloom into stars at the same time isn't going to work. Allowing guys like sano, buxton, and perhaps Arcia work through their youth makes sense if you think they're sure major league difference makers. Hoping for guys like Tonkin and achter to turn into playoff quality players. ..

I think all three of Sano, Buxton, and Arcia could turn into stars, and then when you add in guys like Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler to get an extended look soon as well. I'll take that young core over any other team's under-25 core.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't understand that baserunning metric. Bryant and Brian Dozier are within 1 SB of each other, yet Bryant has a rating of 5.4 compared to Dozier's 2.9. Could there really be that big of a gap between the two in other areas of baserunning? And how is Bryant #2 in all of baseball in that metric, behind only Billy Hamilton?

Well, the gap is much smaller at B-Ref than Fangraphs, so it depends on weighting.

 

But I will note that Bryant has reached base at a higher rate than Dozier, and has actually been on first base more due to having fewer extra base hits (hard for Dozier to accumulate any baserunning value on HR!).

 

Also, due to batting order position, Dozier has led off an inning much more frequently than Bryant.  So he's perhaps been more conservative about taking extra bases.