Season is not over

[jimmer]

 

This is something that's been annoying me lately about MLB Network. They always rave about the young up and coming stars on the Astros, Mets, and Cubs, but they seem to forget that the Twins are likely on the same path in terms of young players, if not better.

except that was specifically about making moves for a playoff push this year.  They haven't knocked the Twins farm system and they have been saying great thing are coming.

[Mike Sixel]

 

looks to me like bryant is 20th in WAR at fangraphs and 55th at espn. if so, can someone please explain how WAR is meaningful in any way? or am i missing something?

 

does every thread have to turn into a WAR debate?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And how is Bryant #2 in all of baseball in that metric, behind only Billy Hamilton?

Also, remember that baserunning runs are a counting stat.  Delino Deshields actually beats Bryant in this measure at Fangraphs, but doesn't have enough PA to qualify.  Others like Billy Burns, George Springer, and Jarrod Dyson also have accumulated them at a higher rate than Bryant.

[jimmer]

 

looks to me like bryant is 20th in WAR at fangraphs and 55th at espn. if so, can someone please explain how WAR is meaningful in any way? or am i missing something?

They are calculated differently.  I prefer Fangraphs

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

It has more to do with how the Twins have had basically the same record as those three teams for the entire season, yet the talk is always about the looming dynasty for the other three.  And I would say that Miguel Sano is well on his way to having as good a season as Bryant, just with less ABs- which I know could very well change, but Bryant hasn't dominated.

 

Having said that, I agree that it doesn't really matter what the national people say, but it would be nice to get some more respect.

 

Well, I think there a several reasons for not talking about the Twins as much as the Cubs or Astros. The biggest one is that the Cubs and Astros are actually better overall teams, and their wins are backed up with numbers that supported their success. They both had and have much better rotations, and better bullpens. Both lineups are light years better than the Twins. 

 

As far as young talent goes, yes the Twins have good young talent, but the only real difference maker young guy has been Sano, and Buxton is a "hold" right now. After Buxton and Sano, we don't haven any MLB future stars in my opinion. The Cubs have Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, Baez, and Soler who are all 23 or younger and legitimate beasts and possible future stars. Rizzo is a star and is only 25, but is a beast already. They also have Castro who is faltering, but still has the potential to be great and has been good already in years past. 

 

After Sano and Buxton, you can't put Rosario, Keppler, Hicks, Pinto, Arcia, ABW, Polanco, Santana, and Vargas in the same conversation as Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, Soler, Baez, and Castro. Do we have a Lester or Arrieta?  And, Hammel and Hendricks are both really good too. 

 

I could do the same thing with the the Astros young stud hitters compared to ours and their starting rotation, but I don't think its necessary. We aren't currently as good as those teams in either hitting or picking, and they have more actually MLB possible future difference making stars than we do. Rosario is good and young, but he will never be a top half of the league corner OF. He might do it for a stretch here or their with an inflated BAIP, but he just isn't that great. For instance, he is currently outperforming Soler for the Cubs, but I don't think any GM in the league would choose Rosario over Soler.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

More on Bryant's baserunning:

 

Because he doesn't bat leadoff, he's actually had fewer stolen base opportunities than Dozier (the next base is occupied more often for Bryant).

 

He's also taken an extra base more often, according to B-Ref (although like I said, Bryant and Dozier are very close in this measure at B-Ref).

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015-baserunning-batting.shtml

[Badsmerf]

 

Sano has been great, agreed......

 

Bryant is 20th in WAR in all of the majors....what would he have to do to "dominate"?

Where did you find this? On ESPN he is 55th, and that is just position players.....

[jimmer]

 

Where did you find this? On ESPN he is 55th, and that is just position players.....

Fangraphs and he's actually tied for18th with Dozier and McCutchen, even though he's played quite a bit less.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0

 

[Jham]

 

I think all three of Sano, Buxton, and Arcia could turn into stars, and then when you add in guys like Jorge Polanco, Jose Berrios, and Max Kepler to get an extended look soon as well. I'll take that young core over any other team's under-25 core.

 

Whoa, nice pieces with a couple potential stars...  who's your starting rotation?  Who's going to beat Kershaw or Gonzalez or Matt Harvey next year in the World Series?  Even with Sano and Buxton and Arcia.  Who is going to be a Cabrera or a Harper?  Now the Royals got there last year by catching fire.  And we could do that... but really, we could probably do that THIS year...  (a couple additions needed).  

 

I mean, we could upgrade the back end of the rotation.  But your 5 starter doesn't even start playoff games.  I strongly believe we need to make upgrades with impact players next season.  We've proven we can compete this year.  Next year is time to win.  We don't have an in-house ace.  We don't have an in-house MVP candidate yet.  Our pen is in shambles.  Berrios isn't ready to be an ace.  Sano isn't ready to be an MVP.  You can win that way, but it's tough.  The difference between us and the best team in baseball isn't Tonkin or Hamburger or Berrios or Arcia.  I'm not sure any of that (other than swapping Berrios for Boyer) would improve the team let alone make us contenders.  (I suspect Arcia is an upgrade over Robinson).  I hope we didn't trade for anyone because we plan on buying hard in FA this year and making trades during the off season.  

[jimmer]

For those who really want to know why there are differences between B-Ref's WAR and Fangraphs WAR (as opposed to those who want to see the differences and conclude its invalid because there are differences).

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/differences-fwar-rwar/

[bluechipper]

 

Well, I think there a several reasons for not talking about the Twins as much as the Cubs or Astros. The biggest one is that the Cubs and Astros are actually better overall teams, and their wins are backed up with numbers that supported their success. They both had and have much better rotations, and better bullpens. Both lineups are light years better than the Twins. 

 

As far as young talent goes, yes the Twins have good young talent, but the only real difference maker young guy has been Sano, and Buxton is a "hold" right now. After Buxton and Sano, we don't haven any MLB future stars in my opinion. The Cubs have Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, Baez, and Soler who are all 23 or younger and legitimate beasts and possible future stars. Rizzo is a star and is only 25, but is a beast already. They also have Castro who is faltering, but still has the potential to be great and has been good already in years past. 

 

After Sano and Buxton, you can't put Rosario, Keppler, Hicks, Pinto, Arcia, ABW, Polanco, Santana, and Vargas in the same conversation as Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber, Russell, Soler, Baez, and Castro. Do we have a Lester or Arrieta?  And, Hammel and Hendricks are both really good too. 

 

I could do the same thing with the the Astros young stud hitters compared to ours and their starting rotation, but I don't think its necessary. We aren't currently as good as those teams in either hitting or picking, and they have more actually MLB possible future difference making stars than we do. Rosario is good and young, but he will never be a top half of the league corner OF. He might do it for a stretch here or their with an inflated BAIP, but he just isn't that great. For instance, he is currently outperforming Soler for the Cubs, but I don't think any GM in the league would choose Rosario over Soler.

I think I'd take Sano over Bryant and hopefully an outfield of Arcia/Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is better than Schwarber( if he moves to LF), Almora or other CF, and Soler. And if you include Rizzo in the discussion, then Dozier is a comparable player, and the Cubs minor league pitching isn't great, so I'd call it fairly even.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

Fangraphs and he's actually tied for18th with Dozier and McCutchen, even though he's played quite a bit less.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0

 

 

Yeah, he hits for power, has a good OBP, steals basses, and has played phenomenal defense. The base stealing and defense were a nice surprise. Just makes his overall future value even better. Basically Sano with speed and good defense.

[jimmer]

 

I think I'd take Sano over Bryant and hopefully an outfield of Arcia/Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is better than Schwarber( if he moves to LF), Almora or other CF, and Soler. And if you include Rizzo in the discussion, then Dozier is a comparable player, and the Cubs minor league pitching isn't great, so I'd call it fairly even.

I'm glad you think our future roster is the best of the bunch.  You could be right.

[bluechipper]

 

Whoa, nice pieces with a couple potential stars...  who's your starting rotation?  Who's going to beat Kershaw or Gonzalez or Matt Harvey next year in the World Series?  Even with Sano and Buxton and Arcia.  Who is going to be a Cabrera or a Harper?  Now the Royals got there last year by catching fire.  And we could do that... but really, we could probably do that THIS year...  (a couple additions needed).  

 

I mean, we could upgrade the back end of the rotation.  But your 5 starter doesn't even start playoff games.  I strongly believe we need to make upgrades with impact players next season.  We've proven we can compete this year.  Next year is time to win.  We don't have an in-house ace.  We don't have an in-house MVP candidate yet.  Our pen is in shambles.  Berrios isn't ready to be an ace.  Sano isn't ready to be an MVP.  You can win that way, but it's tough.  The difference between us and the best team in baseball isn't Tonkin or Hamburger or Berrios or Arcia.  I'm not sure any of that (other than swapping Berrios for Boyer) would improve the team let alone make us contenders.  (I suspect Arcia is an upgrade over Robinson).  I hope we didn't trade for anyone because we plan on buying hard in FA this year and making trades during the off season.  

Once you get into the postseason, anything can happen. As you said, KC made it last year with a great defense and bullpen and mediocre everything else. Their ace was James Shields, who is the type of guy the Twins could get, or may already have.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Berrios isn't ready to be an ace. 

I'm not sure what else the kid needs to do to prove his ability to some people.

 

He's 21 years old and dominating AAA hitters after dominating AA hitters and A+ hitters and...

 

The kid looks legit. He may not turn into an ace - that's him hitting his ceiling - but he's the best chance the Twins have of acquiring an ace in the near future.

 

AAA stats:

37.2 IP

33 Hits

3 HR

11 BB

34 SO

 

He could come up to MLB and scuffle. He could come up to MLB, hit the ground running, and never look back. There's only one way to find out.

 

Berrios, Gibson, May is a decent playoff rotation if Jose pitches to his ability.

[jimmer]

As a baseball fan, I'm just glad we have so many fantastic young players in baseball right now.  It really seems like it's been a long time since we've had so many.  I'd rather applaud that and enjoy them instead of worrying about how national pundits compare our teams young talent to others.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

I think I'd take Sano over Bryant and hopefully an outfield of Arcia/Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is better than Schwarber( if he moves to LF), Almora or other CF, and Soler. And if you include Rizzo in the discussion, then Dozier is a comparable player, and the Cubs minor league pitching isn't great, so I'd call it fairly even.

 

 

I don't think there is a GM in the league who'd take Sano over Bryant, without getting fired. Same goers for either Arcia and Keppler over either Schwarber or Soler. Even if Schwarber were moved to LF permanently, he is still better than both Arcia, Keppler, and Rossario....and I think any FO or prospect guru would take Soler and Schwarber. Buxton over Almora of course, but lets be honest, The Cubs can trade for a buy a good CF in FA.

 

My call is that they will either get Heyward in the offseason and convert him to CF, or convert either Castro or Baez to CF in the offseason. 

 

And, Rizzo is 25, and Dozier is 28. We were talking about young talent I thought. Nor do the Cubs need SP in their minors. They can buy and trade for that, and have.

[jimmer]

 

I don't think there is a GM in the league who'd take Sano over Bryant, without getting fired. Same goers for either Arcia and Keppler over either Schwarber or Soler. Even if Schwarber were moved to LF permanently, he is still better than both Arcia, Keppler, and Rossario....and I think any FO or prospect guru would take Soler and Schwarber. Buxton over Almora of course, but lets be honest, The Cubs can trade for a buy a good CF in FA.

 

My call is that they will either get Heyward in the offseason and convert him to CF, or convert either Castro or Baez to CF in the offseason. 

 

And, Rizzo is 25, and Dozier is 28. We were talking about young talent I thought. Nor do the Cubs need SP in their minors. They can buy and trade for that, and have.

Cubs have some decent pitching in the minors.  Edwards, Johnson and, a bit farther away, Underwood could be the best of the bunch.

[jimmer]

 

 

 

Berrios, Gibson, May is a decent playoff rotation if Jose pitches to his ability.

Assuming May is ever allowed to return to the rotation and/or stay in the rotation.

[bluechipper]

 

I don't think there is a GM in the league who'd take Sano over Bryant, without getting fired. Same goers for either Arcia and Keppler over either Schwarber or Soler. Even if Schwarber were moved to LF permanently, he is still better than both Arcia, Keppler, and Rossario....and I think any FO or prospect guru would take Soler and Schwarber. Buxton over Almora of course, but lets be honest, The Cubs can trade for a buy a good CF in FA.

 

My call is that they will either get Heyward in the offseason and convert him to CF, or convert either Castro or Baez to CF in the offseason. 

 

And, Rizzo is 25, and Dozier is 28. We were talking about young talent I thought. Nor do the Cubs need SP in their minors. They can buy and trade for that, and have.

You're probably right about the Bryant over Sano, but that's fairly even. But I'd still take the Twins OF over the Cubs. And if the Cubs want to pay Heyward $150 million plus to go along with an aging Jon Lester, then that's fine with me.

[bluechipper]

 

Cubs have some decent pitching in the minors.  Edwards, Johnson and, a bit farther away, Underwood could be the best of the bunch.

I think CJ Edwards has made the transition to the bullpen.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

 

You're probably right about the Bryant over Sano, but that's fairly even. But I'd still take the Twins OF over the Cubs. And if the Cubs want to pay Heyward $150 million plus to go along with an aging Jon Lester, then that's fine with me.

 

I do personally agree with you in that I think it's possible that Sano may end up in the same discussion as Bryant with the bat in the near and distant future, but simply looking at their bodies, Bryant should age better, and he plays good defense and will stick at 3B, where Sano may never play 3B, and if he does it won't be near the level that Bryant does. Then, if Bryant keeps his baselining ability, its just another reason he is better overall. 

 

On paying an aging Lester and someone like Heyward, that really isn't a big deal for teams like the Cubs, especially if they have other young cheap players contributing. Lester will likely be valuable for at least 2-4  years though. No, the Twins can't do that, nor should they, but its part of the reason the Cubs are currently better than us, and have a better chance of succeeding in the future. They can buy talent to help with their young team, and if those expensive guys fail, it won't cripple them the way it would the Twins. Consider we will have Mauer blocking talented bats at 1B for years, and taking up a good chunk of money. 

 

I love the Twins, and our young talent, I just personally feel that we are currently and in the future a step or two behind the Cubs and Astros.

 

Better question....Pick one and trade one: Buxton and Sano?

[Jham]

Berrios, Gibson, May is a decent playoff rotation if Jose pitches to his ability.

Would you bet on that rotation over Shields, Hughes, and Santana? (I'm assuming a berrios for shields trade). I guess it depends on whether you believe Shields is clearly better than the rest of our staff, and whether you think Berrios will be better than everyone we currently have. I'll admit that he could be, if you'll admit James Shields is currently.

[savvyspy]

I wholeheartedly agree with this!

 

Oh wait, they need to play .500 baseball? Yeah there is nothing post-ASG that suggests this is close to a .500 baseball team.

 

That's why people are assuming the team is going "belly up".

 

When a playoff team comes out of the all-star break 5-11, sits on its hands at the trade deadline, sees its all-star closer collapse multiple times in the first meaningful games this team has played in 5 seasons, and "rests" its highest paid player in the first game of a key series against a team right on its heels, I think its pretty fair for the fan base to think they are going belly up.

 

At least until the team provides some evidence that they aren't.

[bluechipper]

 

I do personally agree with you in that I think it's possible that Sano may end up in the same discussion as Bryant with the bat in the near and distant future, but simply looking at their bodies, Bryant should age better, and he plays good defense and will stick at 3B, where Sano may never play 3B, and if he does it won't be near the level that Bryant does. Then, if Bryant keeps his baselining ability, its just another reason he is better overall. 

 

On paying an aging Lester and someone like Heyward, that really isn't a big deal for teams like the Cubs, especially if they have other young cheap players contributing. Lester will likely be valuable for at least 2-4  years though. No, the Twins can't do that, nor should they, but its part of the reason the Cubs are currently better than us, and have a better chance of succeeding in the future. They can buy talent to help with their young team, and if those expensive guys fail, it won't cripple them the way it would the Twins. Consider we will have Mauer blocking talented bats at 1B for years, and taking up a good chunk of money. 

 

I love the Twins, and our young talent, I just personally feel that we are currently and in the future a step or two behind the Cubs and Astros.

 

Better question....Pick one and trade one: Buxton and Sano?

The fragility of Buxton so far is concerning, but I'd still keep him over Sano because of the whole fielding aspect of the game.

[jorgenswest]

Mauer can't hit Price. He shouldn't have been in the line up. The salary shouldn't matter.

 

No way the Twins were going to make the playoffs unless Perkins remained close to perfect. If he had blown three or four saves prior to break our expectations might have been more realistic. This team needs a lot of help to match up with the best in baseball. They weren't going to solve C, 1B, RF, SS and the bullpen during the trade deadline. Even if they had, they still don't have an ace to pitch in the wild card game or an elimination game.

[SwainZag]

 

Would you bet on that rotation over Shields, Hughes, and Santana? (I'm assuming a berrios for shields trade). I guess it depends on whether you believe Shields is clearly better than the rest of our staff, and whether you think Berrios will be better than everyone we currently have. I'll admit that he could be, if you'll admit James Shields is currently.

 

IMO, Give me the potential of Berrios over the next 10+ seasons over Shields in his 34-35-36 year old ages.  

[Jham]

 

IMO, Give me the potential of Berrios over the next 10+ seasons over Shields in his 34-35-36 year old ages.  

 

Maybe.  Berrios won't have Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Milone and Perkins saving games for him for 10 years though...  I'm a big fan of Berrios.  I think he should be in our pen right now and for the last month.  Our first window to win is probably this year, next year, and 2017.  If you want to bank on having things go according to plan 4, 5+ years down the line, great.  If Berrios is as good as we hope, he'll want a long-term deal... and is that really better, and assuming global warming continues to have an effect on the concrete, and if the Republicans take back the White House next year.... Lots of ifs either way!  At least now we have some options.  That's a plus.

[SwainZag]

 

Maybe.  Berrios won't have Hughes, Santana, Gibson, May, Milone and Perkins saving games for him for 10 years though...  I'm a big fan of Berrios.  I think he should be in our pen right now and for the last month.  Our first window to win is probably this year, next year, and 2017.  If you want to bank on having things go according to plan 4, 5+ years down the line, great.  If Berrios is as good as we hope, he'll want a long-term deal... and is that really better, and assuming global warming continues to have an effect on the concrete, and if the Republicans take back the White House next year.... Lots of ifs either way!  At least now we have some options.  That's a plus.

 

Just a personal opinion.  Shields will turn 34 this offseason and is on pace for his 9th straight season of over 200+ innings.  I'll be honest, I just don't trust aging pitchers.  If you are going to pay $21M for a pitcher for his 34-35-36 seasons while giving up your 21 year old, #1 ranked pitching prospect on the verges of the major leagues.......you better be ready to say this is our window right now and this guy is make or break.

 

I'd rather see Berrios be used this year or win a spot in the spring, and that $21M be spent on 2 bullpen arms and an upgrade somewhere else for the future, but then again....it's just a personal opinion.

[Mike Sixel]

Truly wishing I had not typed that Bryant is awesome, and we had not got onto the whole Cubs vs Twins thing......

 

Sano and Buxton and Berrios are great talents. I look forward to them in MN for a long time.