Season is not over

[jimmer]

I'm watching Intentional Talk on MLB Network  They are interviewing possibly the new best shortstop in baseball, Carlos Correa.  He was talking about how he acted like a kid when Tulo signed and put a message on a bat for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Would you bet on that rotation over Shields, Hughes, and Santana? (I'm assuming a berrios for shields trade). I guess it depends on whether you believe Shields is clearly better than the rest of our staff, and whether you think Berrios will be better than everyone we currently have. I'll admit that he could be, if you'll admit James Shields is currently.

I'd take Berrios at this point. 2016 is Shields' age 34 season.

 

If it was Berrios vs. age 28-30 Shields, I'd take Shields, obviously.

[mickeymental]

 

does every thread have to turn into a WAR debate?

my question was sincere. one magic formula says Bryant is the 20th best player and another magic formula says Bryant is the 55th best. that's a pretty big difference. if the discrepancy can't be explained beyond saying "they're different magic formulas," well, as the song goes: war -- what is it good for? and i think i know the answer. apparently, there is no explanation. war is a magic formula that we're just supposed to take at face value. and if one says what we want to hear, we should use that one and ignore the other one. pay no attention to the man behind the curtain ...

[Mike Sixel]

 

my question was sincere. one magic formula says Bryant is the 20th best player and another magic formula says Bryant is the 55th best. that's a pretty big difference. if the discrepancy can't be explained beyond saying "they're different magic formulas," well, as the song goes: war -- what is it good for? and i think i know the answer. apparently, there is no explanation. war is a magic formula that we're just supposed to take at face value. and if one says what we want to hear, we should use that one and ignore the other one. pay no attention to the man behind the curtain ...

 

Nope, no one here has claimed that. And there was a post explaining the delta.

[mickeymental]

 

Nope, no one here has claimed that. And there was a post explaining the delta.

well, your post claimed that bryant's war shows him to be the 20th best player. if you don't want "every thread" to turn into a war debate i've got a simple solution: don't use war!

[Mike Sixel]

Here you go:

 

Bryant is an excellent base runner, one of the best in the league. Estimates say he has been one of the best at taking extra bases, and that he is good at stealing.

 

Bryant's defense so far has been quite good. Estimates say that he has been better than the average player at his position. Good, not elite.

 

He has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball, creating a very large number of runs, at a rate much higher than all but a few players. He's been a great hitter.

 

He has accumulated all of his counting stats in 95 games, vs around 105 for most of his peers.....meaning on a per game basis, he's more valuable than his counting stats would lead you to believe.

 

Or, he has a really high WAR......either way, he's been great, and people who keep typing he hasn't, I'm confused by those people.

[drjim]

 

As a baseball fan, I'm just glad we have so many fantastic young players in baseball right now.  It really seems like it's been a long time since we've had so many.  I'd rather applaud that and enjoy them instead of worrying about how national pundits compare our teams young talent to others.

 

Why would national pundits even talk about the Twins, boring franchise from a smaller market.

 

Not going to compete with a team with a history like the Cubs or a new way of doing things like the Astros or a team making a blockbuster. Slow builds and conservative actions aren't exactly conducive to clicks and ratings. 

[USAFChief]

Slow builds and conservative actions aren't exactly conducive to clicks and ratings.

 

Nor to actual success.

[drjim]

 

Nor to actual success.

 

I'm not sure that is true.

[savvyspy]

 

Exactly diehard, just because we can imagine a better trade package we would accept doesn't mean that it's what the other team wants. Completing a trade in real life isn't a video game, there are a myriad of factors at play. Judging success or failure merely by whether a deal gets done or not is quite naive and unfair. And I'd say that is doubly so at the deadline.

I agree with your assessment that actual trades are more difficult than a video game but I would definitely challenge the prevailing wisdom that Ryan not swinging a deal at the deadline was some sort of strategic play. He has shown ZERO ability to manage the trade deadline this year or in past years while many many other GMs have executed moves including this year with almost every team in contention (Hou, KC, Tor, NYM for example) finding a way to fill holes at the deadline.

 

At this point I think its fair to challenge Ryan on his inability to get things done at the deadline. In any given year you can always argue the price in prospects is too high but we have seen season after season of doing nothing. When the team is terrible he isn't a seller in a meaningful way and when they are in contention he isn't a buyer either. The history shows a GM that flat out can't get it done at one of the most important periods of the year. His peers in the game have been somehow able to overcome the difficulties in making deals where he hasn't. That's on him.

[USMCTwin]

 

which player has dominated like Correa or Bryant?

 

and, why does anyone care what national people say or don't say? What difference does it make?

 

Bryant BA .246 / OBP .355 / SLG .434 / OPS .789

Correa BA .292 / OBP .343 / SLG .564 / OPS .907

Sano BA .267 / OBP .407 / SLG .488 / OPS .896

 

I would say Sano is having statistically a better season, hitting anyways, than Bryant and pretty similar numbers to Correa. 

[Loosey]

 

I agree with your assessment that actual trades are more difficult than a video game but I would definitely challenge the prevailing wisdom that Ryan not swinging a deal at the deadline was some sort of strategic play. He has shown ZERO ability to manage the trade deadline this year or in past years while many many other GMs have executed moves including this year with almost every team in contention (Hou, KC, Tor, NYM for example) finding a way to fill holes at the deadline.

 

At this point I think its fair to challenge Ryan on his inability to get things done at the deadline. In any given year you can always argue the price in prospects is too high but we have seen season after season of doing nothing. When the team is terrible he isn't a seller in a meaningful way and when they are in contention he isn't a buyer either. The history shows a GM that flat out can't get it done at one of the most important periods of the year. His peers in the game have been somehow able to overcome the difficulties in making deals where he hasn't. That's on him.

Ryan plain and simple had been unable to make his teams better using methods outside of the draft.  From everything we have heard he doesn't scout draft picks or make those decisions.  He also doesn't believe in Free Agents or Trading for proven talent.  So, in the words of the Bob's from "Office Space", "What is it exactly that you do here?" 

 

Ryan should not be the GM. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Bryant BA .246 / OBP .355 / SLG .434 / OPS .789

Correa BA .292 / OBP .343 / SLG .564 / OPS .907

Sano BA .267 / OBP .407 / SLG .488 / OPS .896

 

I would say Sano is having statistically a better season than Bryant and pretty similar numbers to Correa.

 

If you ignore base running and defense, sure.......

[USMCTwin]

 

If you ignore base running and defense, sure.......

 

Bryant must be truly amazing at those two things to make up for a sizable difference in his slash lines.

 

Bryant has accumulated 2.7 WAR in 96 games.  .028125 per game

Sano has accumulated .7 WAR in 26 games .026923 per game

 

If Bryant is dominating the game, I'm not sure how Sano is not.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bryant must be truly amazing at those two things to make up for a sizable difference in his slash lines.

 

Bryant has accumulated 2.7 WAR in 96 games.  .028125 per game

Sano has accumulated .7 WAR in 26 games .026923 per game

 

If Bryant is dominating the game, I'm not sure how Sano is not.

Bryant has been quite a good baserunner, and has been a better than average glove at third base (and Plouffe has shown us how valuable that is).  That's adding a lot of value.

 

I'd say your sample size should be the other clue that Bryant is better at the moment.  Sano is still riding a .404 BABIP, and Twins fans know how sustainable that is.  He could/should be good, possibly as good or better than Bryant, but he's not there yet.

[USMCTwin]

 

 

Bryant has been quite a good baserunner, and has been a better than average glove at third base (and Plouffe has shown us how valuable that is).  That's adding a lot of value.

 

I'd say your sample size should be the other clue that Bryant is better at the moment.  Sano is still riding a .404 BABIP, and Twins fans know how sustainable that is.  He could/should be good, possibly as good or better than Bryant, but he's not there yet.

 

I would say that is more of an indicator on who is more likely to dominate in the future. A high BABIP still counts today as so far being dominant. Now, whether you believe one will be more dominant than the other in the future should factor in BABIP as you mentioned as well as Sano playing 3B instead of DH, which I am pretty bullish on as that will likely increase his WAR as well.

[woolywoolhouse]

Best we can hope for is that this is equal to the Twins 2001 season. First good season after a long stretch of terrible seasons, but they fell short in the last few months and out of contention. But the core led the Twins to a long stretch of playoff baseball over the next eight seasons. If that happens, then the futility of 2015 will be somewhat forgiven.

[jimmer]

 

If you ignore base running and defense, sure.......

and, in the case of Correa, positional difference.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Bryant must be truly amazing at those two things to make up for a sizable difference in his slash lines.

 

Bryant has accumulated 2.7 WAR in 96 games.  .028125 per game

Sano has accumulated .7 WAR in 26 games .026923 per game

 

If Bryant is dominating the game, I'm not sure how Sano is not.

 

Where did I say Sano wasn't great? People are arguing about Bryant not being great......

 

You are arguing that Sano is better than Bryant, not me. I'm saying there is no evidence that's true. Bryant is playing in the field, Sano is DHing. Bryant is stealing bases, is Sano?

 

Why is calling Bryant great some kind of slam on Sano? Can't they both be great? Minnesotans and their inferiority complex......

[USMCTwin]

 

Where did I say Sano wasn't great? People are arguing about Bryant not being great......

 

You are arguing that Sano is better than Bryant, not me. I'm saying there is no evidence that's true. Bryant is playing in the field, Sano is DHing. Bryant is stealing bases, is Sano?

 

Why is calling Bryant great some kind of slam on Sano? Can't they both be great? Minnesotans and their inferiority complex......

 

I agree with you partially. I think Bryant is great as well. The part I was speaking to was where you said who of the Twins prospects is dominating like Correa or Bryant. I think Sano is having a year similar to Bryant. My fault for taking one line and running with it, because I agree with your underlying point that Bryant is having a great year.

[Rosterman]

The Twins may have a tough road ahead, but their opponents in the division are particularly weaker now (except Kansas City). No one expected the Twins to be above .500 come July 1 or even August 1, so everyone should be happy, and the 30,000 crowds should continue thru the State Fair. What September brings is anotehr story.

 

Right now, the Twins should be thinking hard on how to market not only the rest of the season, but create even mroe excitement for next season and the players that are sure to be showcased then: Buxton, Sano, possibly Berrios and others. The NEW TOWNS should end the season in October and pick up and go forth next year.

 

Of course, expectations should not be high when you are throwing 5-6-7-8-9 or even 10 first/second year players on the diamond, but that is the BIG OPPORTUNITY the Twins still have this year...to showcae the new talent, get them some experience, make them hungry to be in the major leagues et al. If some aren't starving and like to play in the minors (Vargas, Arcia, Meyer), then they will have that opportunity. But the jobs are there for the taking not only this year, but next season.

 

I'm excited for the team as the season continues. They are learning how hard it is to be major league players, especially against first-line pitchers. Msotly, the Twins starters have kept the team in the game (the bullpen, not).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree with you partially. I think Bryant is great as well. The part I was speaking to was where you said who of the Twins prospects is dominating like Correa or Bryant. I think Sano is having a year similar to Bryant. My fault for taking one line and running with it, because I agree with your underlying point that Bryant is having a great year.

 

Fair.....and Sano could do that, but it hasn't even been a month, has it? I love Sano, so glad they went over their normal budget that year to get Sano, Kepler, and Polanco.......

[Mike Sixel]

who is learning how hard it is to be major leaguers?

 

Rosario and Sano? That's it for first year players, right?

[jimmer]

 

I agree with you partially. I think Bryant is great as well. The part I was speaking to was where you said who of the Twins prospects is dominating like Correa or Bryant. I think Sano is having a year similar to Bryant. My fault for taking one line and running with it, because I agree with your underlying point that Bryant is having a great year.

Sano has barely played the field and only played in 26 games. Bryant plays in the field and has played almost 4 times as many games.

[h2oface]

 

Once you get into the postseason, anything can happen. As you said, KC made it last year with a great defense and bullpen and mediocre everything else. Their ace was James Shields, who is the type of guy the Twins could get, or may already have.

 

Personally, I have never seen Shields as an ace. In his 9 post seasons series, he is 3-6 with a 5.46 ERA in 59.1 innings, including totally tanking in the ALCS and WS last year. That is not the kind of ace that the Twins' need. And he is almost 34 (in December)..........