Give Me Realistic August Trade Targets

[John Bonnes]

Generally that means players that are either overpaid or fairly mediocre. I'll submit that both left-handed hitting catchers I identified - Brayan Pena & AJ Pierzynski - could fall into that category. Any other ideas?

[USAFChief]

Kevin Jepsen?

 

I kid, I kid...

[kab21]

I don't think anyone will claim Reyes.  The Mets don't have the money.  SD definitely doesn't have the money.  The Yankees don't really roll like that anymore and I think will stick with Gregorious for another year. 

 

Shields would more likely be claimed and both could make sense for the Twins if they pass through with Nolasco being sent the other way to balance out the money.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I guess I don't see the Shield's love.  Yeah, he gets those Ks, but his HR rate is up by 50% in Petco park of all places, as are some of his other peripherals.  He's not going to be some massive upgrade, and he's not going to remove Hughes, Nolasco, or Santana from the rotation picture.  I suppose if he was traded for Nolasco and Milone, I'd be OK with it, but I have no idea why SanDiego would be interested.

[kab21]

 

I guess I don't see the Shield's love.  Yeah, he gets those Ks, but his HR rate is up by 50% in Petco park of all places, as are some of his other peripherals.  He's not going to be some massive upgrade, and he's not going to remove Hughes, Nolasco, or Santana from the rotation picture.  I suppose if he was traded for Nolasco and Milone, I'd be OK with it, but I have no idea why SanDiego would be interested.

2.82 ERA

3.52ERA

3.15ERA

3.21 ERA

3.77 ERA

 

He isn't a massive upgrade?

 

249 IP

227

228

227

133 and counting

 

You still don't think he would be the best pitcher the Twins have?

 

He isn't a true ace but he gives the Twins a formidable playoff rotation

Shields

Santana (not this year)

Hughes

Gibson

Milone/Berrios/May

 

If the Twins send Nolasco to offset salaries then they will have to include a fairly good prospect but you can never have enough starting pitching.

 

[Craig Arko]

At this point I'd be good with AJ if the price is right.

[Jham]

 

I guess I don't see the Shield's love.  Yeah, he gets those Ks, but his HR rate is up by 50% in Petco park of all places, as are some of his other peripherals.  He's not going to be some massive upgrade, and he's not going to remove Hughes, Nolasco, or Santana from the rotation picture.  I suppose if he was traded for Nolasco and Milone, I'd be OK with it, but I have no idea why SanDiego would be interested.

 

Shields xFIP which factors in a league average home run level sits at 3.32, lower than his FIP and xFIP from the last 2 seasons.  His HR/FB is over 17%.  His career avg. is 11.6%.  He's pitching really well assuming the HR are an aberration.  There's a solid chance that neither Berrios nor any of the Twins minor leaguers will ever be as good as Shields for the next few years.  Nolasco's value is pretty low right now.  San Diego will not move Shields for a salary dump without prized prospects.  I'm guessing Shields would take Berrios and then some.  I would probably do that.  We could continue to try to deal Nolasco over the off-season, or roll Pelfrey style with him next year.  With Pelf and Hunter coming off the books next year, we have the money for Shields without a salary dump or payroll increase, which should also occur next year.

[DJSim22]

 

Generally that means players that are either overpaid or fairly mediocre. I'll submit that both left-handed hitting catchers I identified - Brayan Pena & AJ Pierzynski - could fall into that category. Any other ideas?

 

I understand AJ is a reasonable August trade target, but I find him to be an extreme dbag and don't want him anywhere near Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, May, Meyer, Berrios, ect. 

[kab21]

I like Shields but Berrios isn't even a consideration for him even if Nolasco was included.  May seems reasonable.  A flyball pitcher in Petco that can get some K's.  But even that gives me a little pause.

 

Contracts (with Nolasco subtracted off)

9M

9M

21M - this is scary at age 36

16M option - 2M buyout

 

This should be the argument against Shields and not that he is a marginal upgrade.

[stringer bell]

Mr. Rodney looked pretty good last night. I know his numbers aren't good, but he was really good last year.

[HitInAPinch]

Seems like all the other teams have "person in the know" people who are leaking trade rumors.

Why not the Twins??? 

[darin617]

Someone please end this Shileds for Nolasco talk. Why take on more salary and a longer contract. Did everyone forget Nolasco won 5 games in May and pitched decent when he was healthy. I would rather hold onto him then take on a worse deal.

[ashbury]

 I would rather hold onto him then take on a worse deal.

Usually I let typos go, as should we all, but this one was funny.

[nicksaviking]

I understand AJ is a reasonable August trade target, but I find him to be an extreme dbag and don't want him anywhere near Sano, Buxton, Hicks, Rosario, May, Meyer, Berrios, ect.

 

He's a nearly 40-year- old catcher, if he was actually a clubhouse cancer he wouldn't still be in the league.

 

This organization has enough boy scouts, they could use a dbag or two to toughen them up.

[kab21]

 

Someone please end this Shileds for Nolasco talk. Why take on more salary and a longer contract. Did everyone forget Nolasco won 5 games in May and pitched decent when he was healthy. I would rather hold onto him then take on a worse deal.

Your definition of decent is much different than mine.  Shields would be the best pitcher on the Twins and Nolasco doesn't even deserve to be in the rotation regardless of his 5 wins in May.

 

There is almost a zero chance of this happening though.  It just isn't how JR rolls.

[SwainZag]

 

Your definition of decent is much different than mine.  Shields would be the best pitcher on the Twins and Nolasco doesn't even deserve to be in the rotation regardless of his 5 wins in May.

 

There is almost a zero chance of this happening though.  It just isn't how JR rolls.

 

I just get a little worried about the fact they would have 3 starters owed between 13-21M apiece for their seasons into their mid 30's.  

 

Hughes - 9.2, 13.2, 13.2, 13.2 Ages 30-33

Santana - 13.5, 13.5, 13.5, 14 option - Ages 33-36

Shields - 21-21-21-16 option - Ages 34-37  

 

That's a lot of money owed to 3 pitchers with a lot of mileage on their arms in the normal decline phase.

[darin617]

 

Your definition of decent is much different than mine.  Shields would be the best pitcher on the Twins and Nolasco doesn't even deserve to be in the rotation regardless of his 5 wins in May.

 

There is almost a zero chance of this happening though.  It just isn't how JR rolls.

Shields may be better but it is the length of the deal and the added money that makes me say no to a deal. I would not put in a claim for Shields they will make you take him for nothing just to get that bad deal off their books.

[kab21]

 

I just get a little worried about the fact they would have 3 starters owed between 13-21M apiece for their seasons into their mid 30's.  

 

Hughes - 9.2, 13.2, 13.2, 13.2 Ages 30-33

Santana - 13.5, 13.5, 13.5, 14 option - Ages 33-36

Shields - 21-21-21-16 option - Ages 34-37  

 

That's a lot of money owed to 3 pitchers with a lot of mileage on their arms in the normal decline phase.

That is the same situation the Twins have now except one of those pitchers might not ever be useable. 

 

 

Shields may be better but it is the length of the deal and the added money that makes me say no to a deal. I would not put in a claim for Shields they will make you take him for nothing just to get that bad deal off their books.

Obviously you don't do this by putting in a claim.  This only works if he slips through waivers and then you can work out a trade that includes Nolasco.  Nolasco is a sunk cost.  And Shields is a great value at 9M/yr.  The 21M season (his last) is where there would be a payroll crunch.

 

I guess I would understand the objections about money better if anyone had any confidence that saving the money would actually be used in a worthwhile way. 

[SwainZag]

 

That is the same situation the Twins have now except one of those pitchers might not ever be useable. 

 

 

Except Nolasco is owed 12 for 2 more years.

 

Even if there was a Nolasco swap Shields would be paid 9-9-21-16 team option.  Basically the 24 savings from Nolasco go to 39M to Shields, with the majority coming in his 35 year old season, so no it's not the same situation...and that's assuming you can swap Nolasco and that's not counting the prospects that would be given up to obtain him as well.

[Rosterman]

 

I don't think anyone will claim Reyes.  The Mets don't have the money.  SD definitely doesn't have the money.  The Yankees don't really roll like that anymore and I think will stick with Gregorious for another year. 

 

Shields would more likely be claimed and both could make sense for the Twins if they pass through with Nolasco being sent the other way to balance out the money.

The pain is that if you claim someone, you have to be willing to take them. No going back. It's the club putting them out there that can say non-no. 

 

Before contracts skyrocketed, clubs used to claim guys to keep other teams from getting them.

Of course, if no one claims your player, then you are free to trade them in August.

 

[Mike Sixel]

You mean, who should TR try to trade as a waiver guy? Pelfrey, Hunter, Mauer.

[SwainZag]

 

You mean, who should TR try to trade as a waiver guy? Pelfrey, Hunter, Mauer.

 

2 of those 3 have no trade clauses and you know it.

[Mike Sixel]

2 of those 3 have no trade clauses and you know it.

Alas, it is true. Who gave Hunter that clause?

[kab21]

 

The pain is that if you claim someone, you have to be willing to take them. No going back. It's the club putting them out there that can say non-no. 

 

Before contracts skyrocketed, clubs used to claim guys to keep other teams from getting them.

Of course, if no one claims your player, then you are free to trade them in August.

And that is why I don't think Reyes and probably not Shields will get claimed.

 

Except Nolasco is owed 12 for 2 more years.

 

Even if there was a Nolasco swap Shields would be paid 9-9-21-16 team option.  Basically the 24 savings from Nolasco go to 39M to Shields, with the majority coming in his 35 year old season, so no it's not the same situation...and that's assuming you can swap Nolasco and that's not counting the prospects that would be given up to obtain him as well.

I will take Shields on a 3/39 deal plus an option.  That is a really good contract for a pitcher that good.  The added bonus is that we don't have to watch the Nolasco scholarship pitch anymore.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Shields FA deal was actually pretty fair, given the market.  It's backloaded a bit so that skews things looking forward, but it's not an albatross yet.  (Just noticed that Shields has an opt-out after 2016 too.)

[d-mac]

 

Shields xFIP which factors in a league average home run level sits at 3.32, lower than his FIP and xFIP from the last 2 seasons.  His HR/FB is over 17%.  His career avg. is 11.6%.  He's pitching really well assuming the HR are an aberration.  There's a solid chance that neither Berrios nor any of the Twins minor leaguers will ever be as good as Shields for the next few years.  Nolasco's value is pretty low right now.  San Diego will not move Shields for a salary dump without prized prospects.  I'm guessing Shields would take Berrios and then some.  I would probably do that.  We could continue to try to deal Nolasco over the off-season, or roll Pelfrey style with him next year.  With Pelf and Hunter coming off the books next year, we have the money for Shields without a salary dump or payroll increase, which should also occur next year.

 

No, just no.

[nicksaviking]

 

Shields FA deal was actually pretty fair, given the market.  It's backloaded a bit so that skews things looking forward, but it's not an albatross yet.  (Just noticed that Shields has an opt-out after 2016 too.)

 

I think it was an overpay, but I feel all of those type deals are overpays.  So this one was probably one of the best overpays from my perspective.  Of course the Padres got the benefits of the best part of the deal in the first year.

[Boom Boom]

I think Hunter and Pelfrey are realistic August trade targets.

 

Oh, you meant targets for the Twins... whichever PTBNLs they can get for Hunter and/or Pelfrey.

[DaveW]

I doubt that AJ would make it all the way through to the Twins, but crazier things have happened. He just seems like an easy guy for a team to block.

I think Benoit would have a decent chance to sneak through to the Twins once the Padres finally decide they are "out" of it.

 

His salary plus declining his option would cost 4 million or so, so he wouldn't be as easy/no brainer of a "block" as would AJ or the likes.

[DaveW]

 

 

I think it was an overpay, but I feel all of those type deals are overpays.  So this one was probably one of the best overpays from my perspective.  Of course the Padres got the benefits of the best part of the deal in the first year.

I actually thought the opposite, it was the one signing that wasn't an overpay, just because of the short number of years they had to commit to him. I would take Shields in a heartbeat on this club.