May will stay on in the pen indefinitely after the ASG break

[ashbury]

 

I don't think the decision snuck up on them as it never really sorted itself out into an obvious answer, so they have to ad hoc for a little bit.

It is prudent not to make decisions in advance, when events could still change. Dealing with starting pitching is definitely "optimization under uncertainty".

 

It is something else when the uncertainty is no longer there and they still can't make a decision. And this is what it looks like from here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

May's seemingly had an innings cap of 150 IP since 2011. i wonder if he's still at that limit of 150 or if they could have stretched it out more to 175? Either way that's my theory for stashing him in the bullpen for now... to save his innings for a playoff push. However, it's ridiculous to not have a plan for him while he's in the pen. Why not give him a shot as a 7th-8th inning reliever??

It was not an innings cap, the minor league season is just shorter. (And last year he missed a month or so to injury)

 

IIRC, May was on a 167 IP pace for 2015 recently before the demotion. They definitely didn't need to worry about his total innings.

[Vanimal46]

It was not an innings cap, the minor league season is just shorter. (And last year he missed a month or so to injury)

IIRC, May was on a 167 IP pace for 2015 recently before the demotion. They definitely didn't need to worry about his total innings.

Ah good point. So basically he pitched a full minor league season to get to that 150 #. Eventually they need to take off the training wheels and stretch him out to reach 200+ IP for the future. Not sure at what increments the staff goes by to get to the end goal. Do most teams increase it 25 IP a season? Case by case? Ideally I'd like May to be a 180-200 inning starter as early as next season.

[ashbury]

Ah good point. So basically he pitched a full minor league season to get to that 150 #. Eventually they need to take off the training wheels and stretch him out to reach 200+ IP for the future. Not sure at what increments the staff goes by to get to the end goal. Do most teams increase it 25 IP a season? Case by case? Ideally I'd like May to be a 180-200 inning starter as early as next season.

Case by case, I imagine. And if there is significant success, such as getting through 7 innings in the allotted 100+ pitches by not giving up many runs, the innings total gets to 200 and above pretty much on its own. While without consistent success, *cough* Pelfrey *cough*, there will seem to be a 180 inning limit where there really isn't.

[Badsmerf]

Hey, Phil Hughes has actually pitched out of the pen before, and well, if I remember... He isn't pitching better than any of other starters, although I'm not sure he's pitching better than anyone in our pen either... I have nothing to base this on, but I feel like Hughes would be more receptive to a move to the pen.

 

That said, I'm not as convinced as others that May is our current or future ace. His peripherals seem boosted by his K rate and unsustainable low-walk rate (1.97). To me he looks wild within the strike zone which contributes to the high BABIP (.342). When the BB stabilize his xFIP and ERA will both climb. I would say pitchers termed "effectively wild" tend to be more effectively wild in the Pen. But he's young so who knows. I just don't think it's wise to bank on his peripherals, or view him as our Ace as some have.

Sooooo you're saying not to trust he can keep limiting walks (completely in his control, and something he's been excellent at), keep striking people out (which he also has control over, and also been excellent). Yet, continue to bank on hitters maintaining an extremely high babip? That makes sense *sarcasm*. These magical peripherals you speak of were created to predict future performance. They are used throughout mlb, and extensively by some very successful clubs.

 

What do you propose we trust to predict future performance?

[twinsnorth49]

 

Sooooo you're saying not to trust he can keep limiting walks (completely in his control, and something he's been excellent at), keep striking people out (which he also has control over, and also been excellent). Yet, continue to bank on hitters maintaining an extremely high babip? That makes sense *sarcasm*. These magical peripherals you speak of were created to predict future performance. They are used throughout mlb, and extensively by some very successful clubs.

What do you propose we trust to predict future performance?

Pixie dust?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Magic 8 ball, palm readings, and crystal balls I hear work pretty well

 

In all seriousness, May took a huge step forward last year in AAA in his walk rate and has been pitching in MLB this season at the same rate he was in AAA last season.  The K rate is there too. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that May still has potential to be a top of the rotation arm, and all his peripheral stats support it.  His problem has been (thus far at least) the big inning.  This was a huge problem for him last year and something he's improved on quite a bit, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes another year or two for him to figure that out.  I do think time in the pen will actually benefit him a bit there, especially pitching in higher leverage situations.  I understand that the team has 6 starters this year and by proxy May is the odd guy out, but I would think it has to be a priority at some point to get him back in the rotation. 

[Jham]

 

Sooooo you're saying not to trust he can keep limiting walks (completely in his control, and something he's been excellent at), keep striking people out (which he also has control over, and also been excellent). Yet, continue to bank on hitters maintaining an extremely high babip? That makes sense *sarcasm*. These magical peripherals you speak of were created to predict future performance. They are used throughout mlb, and extensively by some very successful clubs.

What do you propose we trust to predict future performance?

 

How about past performance... of his peripherals and direct stats.

[Jham]

 

Magic 8 ball, palm readings, and crystal balls I hear work pretty well

 

In all seriousness, May took a huge step forward last year in AAA in his walk rate and has been pitching in MLB this season at the same rate he was in AAA last season.  The K rate is there too. I don't think it's unreasonable to think that May still has potential to be a top of the rotation arm, and all his peripheral stats support it.  His problem has been (thus far at least) the big inning.  This was a huge problem for him last year and something he's improved on quite a bit, but I wouldn't be surprised if it takes another year or two for him to figure that out.  I do think time in the pen will actually benefit him a bit there, especially pitching in higher leverage situations.  I understand that the team has 6 starters this year and by proxy May is the odd guy out, but I would think it has to be a priority at some point to get him back in the rotation. 

 

His walk rate is NOT similar to anything he's done in the past.  3.57 in AAA, 1.97 this year.  If you think he can keep that up, awesome.  I hope you're right.  BABIP is still somewhat controllable, as it's a fairly decent measure of type and strength of contact.  For instance, ground balls are most likely to become outs, line drives most likely to become hits, then there's peripherals for the peripherals, etc.  Focusing on stats that take the most variables out of the equation makes sense.  Ignoring his historical marks in the same peripherals used to buttress your argument are not.  

 

Keep in mind, my original argument was to consider moving May back into the rotation over defacto ace, Phil Hughes.  It's not like I hate the guy.  I just think despite his early results this year, he has a long way to go regarding his ability to locate and go deeper into games.

[jokin]

 

They have a plan...May temporarily to the pen while they evaluate the other starters. Mean while, protect May's arm, which isn't accustomed to short reliever warm up or usage patterns. If he stays in the pen, then start conditioning him to that role.

You can't just take a guy who is used to pitching in long stretches every fifth day and one day ask him to immediately learn how to be ready in 15 pitches. And do it on back to back days.

 

I don't think anyone expects May to be "immediately ready to throw in 15 pitches" or "on back-to-back days."   But having known of just the current set of circumstances in place as being a strong probability for more than 3 months now....    then arguably your 2nd best overall pitcher needed to be physically and mentally prepared to throw up to 3 times per week (depending on the amount of innings per game) in late-inning tie games.... this was not an unreasonable expectation.

[blairpaul715]

 

  And hopefully the 39 year old who Ryan just picked up from the heap, and being lit up in Chatanooga is not one of them...

You mean that pitcher that has only 3 outings 4 IP and given up 1 hit and 1 walk, I love that kind of being lit up for my pitcher!!!! .........................but i dont want him either.

[Mike Sixel]

If they have a plan, Molitor is not a good communicator, since he pretty much says they have no plan.....

[blairpaul715]

Well, if the Twins win today, they will have gotten to 9 games above .500 with no plan............I would say they have a plan, and they are utilizing it, whether we like it or not..........I also would prefer May in the rotation, and he will most likely be back in there, but the Twins will give Pelfrey a 2 week break with the All-Star game break, and if he doesnt come back into the form he had been showing before the last handful of games, then I would bet you will see May back in the rotation shortly thereafter, and Pelfrey banished to the bullpen , waiting for an injury or someone else to implode. You can never have enough pitching and I , for one like that we have to argue who should and shouldnt be starting, because we have worthy candidates.

[drjim]

 

I don't think anyone expects May to be "immediately ready to throw in 15 pitches" or "on back-to-back days."   But having known of just the current set of circumstances in place as being a strong probability for more than 3 months now....    then arguably your 2nd best overall pitcher needed to be physically and mentally prepared to throw up to 3 times per week (depending on the amount of innings per game) in late-inning tie games.... this was not an unreasonable expectation.

 

It wouldn't take long to get him to this point, but I assume they wanted to keep the options open for the 10 days leading up to the break. It will be interesting to see if they reboot a little coming out.

[drjim]

 

It is prudent not to make decisions in advance, when events could still change. Dealing with starting pitching is definitely "optimization under uncertainty".

 

It is something else when the uncertainty is no longer there and they still can't make a decision. And this is what it looks like from here.

 

It hasn't even been 10 days and circumstances in that time certainly haven't forced their hands.

 

We need a plan!!!!1!111!!! #plan

[Craig Arko]

It hasn't even been 10 days and circumstances in that time certainly haven't forced their hands.

 

We need a plan!!!!1!111!!! #plan

#freetheplan

[jokin]

 

It hasn't even been 10 days and circumstances in that time certainly haven't forced their hands.

 

We need a plan!!!!1!111!!! #plan

 

Except how would they have known whether or not their hand would, or would not, be forced?   Selective recall- and- FAIL at attempted mockery.   You seem to feel that good fortune and luck are you all you need to rely on over 162 games.

 

Any way you try to slice or minimize it, this was poor contingency planning.   (And there were two losses this week that failed to enter into your recall short-term-memory banks- where May could have come in and made a difference in potentially turning those losses into wins-  and against the top 2 division rivals).

[jimbo92107]

Trevor May looks like a better setup man than Blaine Boyer. Quicker delivery, more precision, and plenty of zip on that heater. Plus, he can go about six innings anytime.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Well, if the Twins win today, they will have gotten to 9 games above .500 with no plan............I would say they have a plan, and they are utilizing it, whether we like it or not..........I also would prefer May in the rotation, and he will most likely be back in there, but the Twins will give Pelfrey a 2 week break with the All-Star game break, and if he doesnt come back into the form he had been showing before the last handful of games, then I would bet you will see May back in the rotation shortly thereafter, and Pelfrey banished to the bullpen , waiting for an injury or someone else to implode. You can never have enough pitching and I , for one like that we have to argue who should and shouldnt be starting, because we have worthy candidates.

i would venture a guess that the "plan" is to not piss off Pelfrey, like the last time they tried to put him in the pen. they are implementing that plan, at the expense of experience for the best most major league ready prospect they have.

[Badsmerf]

His walk rate is NOT similar to anything he's done in the past. 3.57 in AAA, 1.97 this year. If you think he can keep that up, awesome. I hope you're right. BABIP is still somewhat controllable, as it's a fairly decent measure of type and strength of contact. For instance, ground balls are most likely to become outs, line drives most likely to become hits, then there's peripherals for the peripherals, etc. Focusing on stats that take the most variables out of the equation makes sense. Ignoring his historical marks in the same peripherals used to buttress your argument are not.

 

Keep in mind, my original argument was to consider moving May back into the rotation over defacto ace, Phil Hughes. It's not like I hate the guy. I just think despite his early results this year, he has a long way to go regarding his ability to locate and go deeper into games.

I'm considering ending this conversation because it's difficult on a phone, but this is a teaching opportunity. I want you to slow your roll for a second. Ground balls are not most likely turned into outs, ground balls go for hits very often. In fact, i believe they are second to line drives. The worst type of contact is infield fly balls. They are converted almost every time. And of fly balls are next.

 

Most pitchers only have minimal impact on babip, same with most hitters. A .350 babip is high, unsustainable high. It will drop to normal, and his era will drop with it. This is the basis for pitcher independent earned runs, which says he has been very good.

 

Now, you are citing historical data for him. That 45 ip in 2014 isn't very convincing, especially considering it was his first in the mlb. The walk rate is the only outlier if you factor his minor league career. But, he is young and control can be improved with development. I doubt he'll continue to walk under 2 per 9, but he has done it for over 80 innings so far.

[jokin]

 

Trevor May looks like a better setup man than Blaine Boyer. Quicker delivery, more precision, and plenty of zip on that heater. Plus, he can go about six innings anytime.

 

I trust that this was not damning with faint praise.    Boyer shouldn't be the No. 1, 2 or 3 late-inning option on a contending team-  strictly a bridge guy to the 8th inning RP.  

 

The Twins still need to find a top set-up guy if they want to stay serious about their post-season possibilities.

[Jham]

 

I'm considering ending this conversation because it's difficult on a phone, but this is a teaching opportunity. I want you to slow your roll for a second. Ground balls are not most likely turned into outs, ground balls go for hits very often. In fact, i believe they are second to line drives. The worst type of contact is infield fly balls. They are converted almost every time. And of fly balls are next.

Most pitchers only have minimal impact on babip, same with most hitters. A .350 babip is high, unsustainable high. It will drop to normal, and his era will drop with it. This is the basis for pitcher independent earned runs, which says he has been very good.

Now, you are citing historical data for him. That 45 ip in 2014 isn't very convincing, especially considering it was his first in the mlb. The walk rate is the only outlier if you factor his minor league career. But, he is young and control can be improved with development. I doubt he'll continue to walk under 2 per 9, but he has done it for over 80 innings so far.

 

Thanks for "teaching" me.  Despite the condescending tone of your post, I'll respond.  I'm happy you see that his sub-2.00 BB/9ip is probably unsustainable.  Re: GO/FO being reflected in his BABIP, you know what I meant.  I didn't bother looking up his hard hit % (subjective) his HR/FB, his line drive %, IF%, etc.  I just know that a high BABIP will represent 1) luck, 2) defense, or 3) strength of contact.  Neither of has posted any stats saying that it's one over the other.  So if you want to believe it's all luck, I won't stop you.  I'm more of skeptic, perhaps it's because I can't see luck explaining getting a total of 2 outs in a start, or maybe it's my personal bias of actually watching him pitch.  Again, I think he's talented.  I think he's improving and he's got a chance to be very good.  I just don't think he's the best pitcher currently on the staff and am not offended by his move to the pen, especially since Molitor seems to believe he can be quite useful there based on his comments about not wanting to send him down until they see what they have.

[Badsmerf]

I'm ok with that opinion. You're allowed to have it (i have that kinda pull around here). Especially if you are relying on your eye test, metrics be damned! Not snark.

 

My main point was that the metric like Trevor May, any way you slice it. And, he is young enough, that his performance so far could be the actual pitcher he is going to become. I don't think he is the best on the staff either, that belongs to Gibson with a bullet right now.

[TheLeviathan]

Just think how harsh people would be against Gibson at this same stage.  You have to let young guys struggle early and not hold it against them.  In his last 5-10 starts May has shown that same turned corner that Gibson showed last year.

 

We should be hoping he follows the same path, not derailing it into the bullpen in the name of Mike freaking Pelfrey.

[drivlikejehu]

May has been good throughout the season. In 15 starts, he's had one horrible outing and a few that were subpar. He was the Twins youngest starter and remains one of the five best.

 

As inexcusable as demoting him to the bullpen was, what really scares me is that the Twins may not realize May is good. I don't understand how that is possible - it seems ludicrous to suggest - but the comments by management are unnerving. 

[Craig Arko]

The galling thing about all this gross mismanagement is that without it, this team could be 49-40 right now.

[drivlikejehu]

 

The galling thing about all this gross mismanagement is that without it, this team could be 49-40 right now.

 

I forget the reward for having an above average record at the all-star break.

[Rosterman]

May is in the pen, but ready to step in if a starter goes down. What did we do in the past? Let Swarzak (and before that Duensing) start?

 

If we make the playoffs, we don't have Nolasco.

 

Will be interesting to see what happens in the month of July, if anyone is traded or who the Twins may add.

 

The we have August. I can see any number of players offered out on waivers, and the Twins just have to decide if they wish to cut salary or work out a trade for a low-end prospect. I could see a team grabbing Pelfrey if he pitches halfway decent. I could also see Duensing offered out. Even Suxuki. And the Twins cutting ties. (I doubt that anyone would grab Nolasco, and would be interesting to see if the Twins would rid themselves of Santana's long contract if the right offer happened).

 

It's a fun and interesting time in Twins land. Never thought we would be where we are at All-Star break. And the lineup, overall, looks pretty solid. Nothing truly exciting, but a fun groups of guys who are just playing the game well behind a rotation that is keeping us in the games.

[drjim]

 

The galling thing about all this gross mismanagement is that without it, this team could be 49-40 right now.

 

I'm much more concerned that if they keep winning a significant amount of posters are going to run out of things to talk about.

 

#plan

[USAFChief]

I don't think anyone expects May to be "immediately ready to throw in 15 pitches" or "on back-to-back days." But having known of just the current set of circumstances in place as being a strong probability for more than 3 months now.... then arguably your 2nd best overall pitcher needed to be physically and mentally prepared to throw up to 3 times per week (depending on the amount of innings per game) in late-inning tie games.... this was not an unreasonable expectation.

so...you are arguing May should have been out of the rotation sooner?