Pelfrey's Trade Value

[Vanimal46]

As SpiritofVodkaDave mentioned in the Rotation forum, Ervin Santana is bound to make his Twins debut in 2 weeks. That leaves us fans with a lot of questions on who's in, and who's out in the rotation. The lowest hanging fruit to clear up the rotation log jam and free up a spot on the 40 man roster going forward is Mike Pelfrey. The man is currently on the final year of his contract, and is most likely viewed as a rental player on a contending team.

 

The question is, what could the Twins get via trade for Mike Pelfrey? Could we get a close to MLB ready catcher for a Pelfrey/prospect package deal? Or is he only worth a low-level, take a chance on me type of prospect? 

[drjim]

The latter. Might get a guy like Harrison or Gonsalves.

[jorgenswest]

I would think his value is no better than Liriano's in 2012. Possibly less. They both had FIPs worse than league average. Liriano's FIP was 4% above league average and Pelfrey's current FIP is 7% above league average. The Twins did get two players with the upside of youth while moving through minors at a young age. Escobar is well worth the 11 Liriano starts.

 

I think they need to trade Pelfrey for the best the market will offer. They can't expect GMs to use his current ERA to project future performance. Much like Suzuki's batting average least year, it is an illusion and doesn't change his value going forward. If the Twins expect a return based on a few months of ERA out of line with career, they will not find a trade partner.

 

 

[jorgenswest]

 

 

The latter. Might get a guy like Harrison or Gonsalves.

 

There is extra value for player's not yet on a 40 man roster like Harrison and Gonsalves. They probably are going to have to take someone off a 40 man roster. Hopefully that player will have options remaining after this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I agree that Pelfrey's value in trade isn't a lot, which is why I think the Twins should ride his hot hand through the season and keep trying to make a postseason run, or at least stay relevant for as long as possible.

 

I'd be more interested to see what Milone might bring in trade... Possibly May if a decent young catcher can be found.

 

If the Twins are still reeling on July 25th, then a Pelfrey trade might be in order.

[drjim]

 

I would think his value is no better than Liriano's in 2012. Possibly less. They both had FIPs worse than league average. Liriano's FIP was 4% above league average and Pelfrey's current FIP is 7% above league average. The Twins did get two players with the upside of youth while moving through minors at a young age. Escobar is well worth the 11 Liriano starts.

 

I think they need to trade Pelfrey for the best the market will offer. They can't expect GMs to use his current ERA to project future performance. Much like Suzuki's batting average least year, it is an illusion and doesn't change his value going forward. If the Twins expect a return based on a few months of ERA out of line with career, they will not find a trade partner.

 

I would say less because Pelfrey has significantly less upside than Liriano had at the time. Hernandez did not have upside, but Escobar is a decent return, someone who is a utility guy with upside for more, could also be a major league reliever.

 

So a controlled major league bit piece, corner bat in last year of deal, or C+ prospect.

[drjim]

 

I agree that Pelfrey's value in trade isn't a lot, which is why I think the Twins should ride his hot hand through the season and keep trying to make a postseason run, or at least stay relevant for as long as possible.

 

I'd be more interested to see what Milone might bring in trade... Possibly May if a decent young catcher can be found.

 

If the Twins are still reeling on July 25th, then a Pelfrey trade might be in order.

 

I agree with this, little reason to trade Pelfrey. It's not like other teams aren't fully aware of who he is and what he has done.

 

May is a very interesting piece, could get a young position player or a good vet with a year of control beyond this one.

 

Milone would probably be similar to Pelfrey, but maybe a better mlber with some control beyond this year.

[Vanimal46]

 

I agree with this, little reason to trade Pelfrey. It's not like other teams aren't fully aware of who he is and what he has done.

 

 

I get this thought. Pelfrey's value has never been higher while he's been on this team, which prompted me to start the discussion. I guess the trade off would be do you want a flyer prospect to store in A ball while moving up people like Stewart, Gonsalves, Hu etc? Or are you okay with letting Pelf walk at the end of the season with no compensation?

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have 6 current starters under team control trough 2017. At some point in that time, Trevor May has a good chance of being the best of the 6. I don't see how the Twins can afford to trade away that possibility.

 

While it looks like they will have surplus pitching in the month of July this season, I do not see the same surplus going forward. Berrios is the only one in the minors that the Twins should feel confident about helping by 2017. Others are probably going to need to bounce back and forth on their options in that time frame. The Twins do not have so much pitching that they can trade off their youngest starter.

 

There is no certainty that the perceived surplus will be realized three weeks from now. They probably ought to hold off any trade thoughts until the all star break.

[Winston Smith]

Trade him before Terry does something silly like extend him.

[drjim]

 

I get this thought. Pelfrey's value has never been higher while he's been on this team, which prompted me to start the discussion. I guess the trade off would be do you want a flyer prospect to store in A ball while moving up people like Stewart, Gonsalves, Hu etc? Or are you okay with letting Pelf walk at the end of the season with no compensation?

 

I am quite OK with him walking away at the end of the season when weighing his remaining production vs. what that compensation likely would be.

 

Of course this changes if the Twins don't reverse this slide and become sellers in July.

[Dman]

Teams don't seem to be paying much in prospects for end of the year rentals unless they are a player that would get a qualifying offer or a player who has more than end of year control.  Also Pelfrey has a track record that makes him less appealing than other potential pitchers that might be on the market.  Granted if he keeps pitching well he will be attractive at the deadline but he has warts so I don't see the Twins getting The value they would want to trade him.

 

If he keeps pitching really well maybe someone will blow the Twins away with an offer but I think the odds are low that will happen.  Also we have a lot of prospects to add to the 40 man at the end of this year so unless they get a really good prospect then they are better off just using Big P themselves until the end of the year as they can't keep everyone the way it is.

[Kirby_waved_at_me]

At  this point in the season, I don't see many teams that I would call desperate for starting pitching.

 

Pelfrey is the kind of player for which a desperate team trades.  

[DaveW]

I don't think Pelfrey or Milone are going to bring back much in any trade. While both are pitching well, there is usually no shortage of back end rotation type guys on the market. Milone only brought back 4th OF Sam Fuld last year.

 

If you really want to bring in a young catcher with potential (upgrade over Suzuki) or a young SS, you probably have to trade Gibson, I'm not sure even May would bring back a "stud" at this point.

[spinowner]

This year Pelfrey is not a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He's the best starting pitcher on a team with a winning record. Now is the time. Put out some feelers. Get what we can for him. We can piece something together for a couple weeks until Ervin returns.

[bird]

 

The latter. Might get a guy like Harrison or Gonsalves.

 

 

Okay.

[Dantes929]

Honestly, his career numbers are not that much worse than Santana or Nolasco.   I don't think we would get much for Pelfrey but I think the added pitch changes who he is as a pitcher so I do not want to get rid of him unless it is for a good catcher even up.    If we are going to lose guys for little in return I would prefer it be Nolasco.      I know it won't last but right now I don't want anyone out of this rotation.   They just held the best team in baseball to 8 runs over 4 games.    Don't fix it til it breaks.   Santana to the pen unless someone messes up their next two starts.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This year Pelfrey is not a back-of-the-rotation pitcher. He's the best starting pitcher on a team with a winning record. Now is the time. Put out some feelers. Get what we can for him. We can piece something together for a couple weeks until Ervin returns.

 

Pelfrey is not suddenly a great pitcher. No team is going to give up real value for him. That's just the way it is. You can think of him however you like, but within baseball he is not highly valued.

[USAFChief]

 

Pelfrey is not suddenly a great pitcher. No team is going to give up real value for him. That's just the way it is. You can think of him however you like, but within baseball he is not highly valued.

Not to mention, no team in baseball is going to trade a starting pitcher, who is performing well while the team is in contention, for an A ball lotto ticket.

 

No team.

 

I'll say again...if TR were to do that, he should be fired immediately.

[Hrbowski]

He would have good value to a NL team, Dodgers are looking for help in the back end of their rotation, Pirates could decide to upgrade over Locke, Braves have surprisingly hung in there, and are currently going with four starters, but they are rebuilding, so I don't think we could get much from them.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not to mention, no team in baseball is going to trade a starting pitcher, who is performing well while the team is in contention, for an A ball lotto ticket.

 

No team.

 

I'll say again...if TR were to do that, he should be fired immediately.

This. The Twins have lost 90+ games four years running.

 

Aren't you guys tired of watching that happen? Don't you enjoy watching winning baseball?

 

Just ride Pelfrey through the season and then let him walk. It's really not much of a loss.

[drjim]

 

Not to mention, no team in baseball is going to trade a starting pitcher, who is performing well while the team is in contention, for an A ball lotto ticket.

 

No team.

 

I'll say again...if TR were to do that, he should be fired immediately.

 

Yes, this can't be said enough. You know who Pelfrey has a lot of value to right now...the Twins. Wins on the major league level is kind of the point.

[USAFChief]

 

 . Wins on the major league level is kind of the point.

Yes, this can't be said enough.

[nicksaviking]

 

This. The Twins have lost 90+ games four years running.

 

Aren't you guys tired of watching that happen? Don't you enjoy watching winning baseball?

 

I do, I'm happy to watch winning baseball and hope it continues into October.  Still, my sights were always set on 2016 and beyond, this year is just the appitizer.  If passing on the appitizer means I have more room for desert, I'd have to consider it.

 

I'm not taking my eyes off the long term goal, and considering how Gibson and May struggled upon their call ups, I think I want room somewhere soon for Berrios with the hopes that he'd be ready to a factor next year.  This team still needs a front line starter, and there isn't one on the team yet.  If the Twins ever get one, he's going to be coming from within.

[DaveW]

If Pelfrey keeps this up it would be a win win win win scenario for the Twins (Hopefully one of those wins is a world series clinching one)

 

If he ends the season with a sub 3.80 ERA you offer him a qualifying offer, either he accepts it and you have a solid pitcher on a one year deal (albeit a little expensive but the Twins can afford it) or you get a draft pick.

 

Or maybe you trade a guy like Gibson or May for a REAL prospect at SS or C and you keep Pelfrey around on a team friendly deal, I think he has turned a pretty large corner personally, he now has more than just a 95 MPH fastball with movement in his arsenal. a Sub 3.25 ERA may be out of the question moving forward, but I think he can be a solid mid rotation guy for any team.

 

So, keep him unless someone wants to give you a Wilson Ramos type in return.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think his value is being understated if Escobar is his return.  Unlike Liriano, Pelfrey is having a decent season for one.  I don't think the return would be huge, but an A ball prospect with upside is realistic I think. 

[gocgo]

 

Not to mention, no team in baseball is going to trade a starting pitcher, who is performing well while the team is in contention, for an A ball lotto ticket.

 

No team.

 

I'll say again...if TR were to do that, he should be fired immediately.

The White Sox still think they are in contention....hmmmm.

[Thegrin]

Big Mike Pelfrey is a HORSE !  He is not the 2013 Mike Pelfrey. He has a new arm and a new pitch and a new delivery.  He could pitch this way for the next 5 years.

 

Have you watched his games ?  Have you watched him pitch ?  I look forward to his every outing. 

 

I hope TR offers him a contract extension and I hope he takes it.  

[Vanimal46]

 

Big Mike Pelfrey is a HORSE !  He is not the 2013 Mike Pelfrey. He has a new arm and a new pitch and a new delivery.  He could pitch this way for the next 5 years.

 

Have you watched his games ?  Have you watched him pitch ?  I look forward to his every outing. 

 

I hope TR offers him a contract extension and I hope he takes it.  

 

 

He's night and day this season compared to 2013 Pelfrey. As a former Pelfrey Pitchfork member, I admit that he's actually a pleasure to watch this year. I'm all for keeping him on the team if the value is not there to make a deal, but extension?? Dear god no.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Big Mike Pelfrey is a HORSE !  He is not the 2013 Mike Pelfrey. He has a new arm and a new pitch and a new delivery.  He could pitch this way for the next 5 years.

 

Have you watched his games ?  Have you watched him pitch ?  I look forward to his every outing. 

 

I hope TR offers him a contract extension and I hope he takes it.  

 

Not sure I agree here.  Might consider the QO if we were certain he'd turn it down...  Pelfrey has been very Jeckyl/Hyde through his career.  Not convinced he's turned a corner at his present age.