Pelfrey's Trade Value

[ashbury]

Yes, this can't be said enough.

This, however, has been said enough.

[ashbury]

Teams don't seem to be paying much in prospects for end of the year rentals unless they are a player that would get a qualifying offer

The rules concerning compensatory draft picks were changed a year or two ago, and players traded mid-season do not earn the receiving team such a pick anymore. This largely accounts for the greatly reduced trade interest; a team in contention can't just load up for the pennant drive and then get their investment right back in the form of a young prospect the next June.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I do, I'm happy to watch winning baseball and hope it continues into October. Still, my sights were always set on 2016 and beyond, this year is just the appitizer. If passing on the appitizer means I have more room for desert, I'd have to consider it.

 

I'm not taking my eyes off the long term goal, and considering how Gibson and May struggled upon their call ups, I think I want room somewhere soon for Berrios with the hopes that he'd be ready to a factor next year. This team still needs a front line starter, and there isn't one on the team yet. If the Twins ever get one, he's going to be coming from within.

We absolutely shouldn't forget the long term goal but thankfully, Pelfrey isn't preventing that goal from being achieved. He walks after the season.

 

If anything, Pelfrey is helping that goal become a reality. He's pitching on a team in contention and giving the young players a chance to experience a second half of the season where games matter. They'll enter 2016 better equipped to understand what it takes to play major league baseball and win.

 

It's not as if Berrios is banging on the door. Meyer is in the bullpen. Pelfrey isn't hurting the 2016 and beyond Twins.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm fine with keeping him, but dear god....no extension!

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm fine with keeping him, but dear god....no extension!

This cannot be emphasized enough, in my opinion.

[drivlikejehu]

 

This cannot be emphasized enough, in my opinion.

 

I agree, though the necessary implication is that Twins' management might actually consider it. Which says something very unflattering about them.

[Thegrin]

When Pelfrey commented that He followed Dr. Tom House's exercise program and I have watched Pelfrey maintain his velocity into the 7th inning, I became convinced that his performance is real and unlikely to regress unless he has an injury. 

Look at the Cardinals. They have been using Dr. House;s methods for quite some time and look at the success their pitchers have had.  Why can't the Twins duplicate that ?  

[nater79a]

 

The Twins have 6 current starters under team control trough 2017. At some point in that time, Trevor May has a good chance of being the best of the 6. I don't see how the Twins can afford to trade away that possibility.

While it looks like they will have surplus pitching in the month of July this season, I do not see the same surplus going forward. Berrios is the only one in the minors that the Twins should feel confident about helping by 2017. Others are probably going to need to bounce back and forth on their options in that time frame. The Twins do not have so much pitching that they can trade off their youngest starter.

There is no certainty that the perceived surplus will be realized three weeks from now. They probably ought to hold off any trade thoughts until the all star break.

 

Don't agree with Berrios being the only pitcher being able to help. Would definitely add Taylor Rogers and Tyler Duffey to the list. 

[DocBauer]

I.....I can't believe Im actually going to say the following things. (Gulp)

 

* during a career year, and a FA after this season, a team in contention, especially if someone is hurt or underperforms, can, will and should be interested in Pelfrey. However, they aren't going to pay much based on track history of performance and injury. Which means......

 

* ......Pelfrey's best value to the Twins is to stay a Twin. He is actually pitching borderline great. Yes, it's true. Forget peripherals for a moment and just look at results. He's had 2 stinker games, all pitchers do, but has been 6-8 IP every time out, is winning, keeping us in every game, getting out of jams, and is providing a real shot in the arm. Even if he suddenly regresses, there is the bullpen option.

 

* I agree with the qualifying offer. No extension! The QO is affordable, and brings back a pick if he refuses. If he accepts, and regresses, you have an expensive bullpen option, but one who just might be solid-valuable in the role. And it's still only one year. And maybe, just maybe, out of NY, finally healthy, a change in approach brought on by himself or his new pitching coach or a combination of both, and a seemingly new mental toughness, he truly might be maturing/developing/finding himself late in his career.

[nater79a]

 

When Pelfrey commented that He followed Dr. Tom House's exercise program and I have watched Pelfrey maintain his velocity into the 7th inning, I became convinced that his performance is real and unlikely to regress unless he has an injury. 

Look at the Cardinals. They have been using Dr. House;s methods for quite some time and look at the success their pitchers have had.  Why can't the Twins duplicate that ?  

 

You are exactly right.

 

You can't base the future performance of Mike Pelfrey based on his last two seasons with the Twins. He wasn't healthy. Two seasons ago he was a year or so removed from Tommy John. Last year he had ulnar nerve issues which required surgery.

 

Now he is healthy and pitching like it. He has added velocity. His two seamer was just described by Ryan Braun as being absolutely "nasty". His splitter is an extremely effective pitch.

This has a real possibility of being sustainable, not only this year, but a few years down the road.

 

When he hits the free agent market this Fall teams will be interested, especially in a pitchers market with humongous contracts handed out to the likes of Cueto, Zimmerman, Price. Maybe even Greinke.

The clubs that get left out holding the bag on those guys are going to turn to much more affordable options like Pelfrey and offer 2 and 3 year deals at (relatively) less dollars.  

 

Here's what I would do. First, do not trade Pelfrey at the deadline. Ride him out the rest of this season as one of your most effective starters. In the offseason, make him a qualifying offer knowing he's going to get 2-3 year deals north of $30 mil (again, cheap in a pitchers market). The QO will get rejected by Pelfrey and the Twins end up with a draft pick.

 

A draft pick at the end of the 1st round. Not bad for a guy most folks wanted to DFA out of spring training.

 

[70charger]

 

Here's what I would do. First, do not trade Pelfrey at the deadline. Ride him out the rest of this season as one of your most effective starters. In the offseason, make him a qualifying offer knowing he's going to get 2-3 year deals north of $30 mil (again, cheap in a pitchers market). The QO will get rejected by Pelfrey and the Twins end up with a draft pick.

 

I'm beginning to believe that this is the thing to do. There's a risk he reinjures himself before then, but all pitchers are risky. There's also a risk he actually takes the QO and don't perform. But if a QO is something like $13-15 million, he could likely get more than that on a 2 or 3 year deal, which would make it worth doing. Assuming he doesn't blow up of course.

 

The only thing I'm surprised by is that, 1) he has trade value, and 2) he's pitching well enough to even tender an offer for next year. What has the world come to?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm beginning to believe that this is the thing to do. There's a risk he reinjures himself before then, but all pitchers are risky. There's also a risk he actually takes the QO and don't perform. But if a QO is something like $13-15 million, he could likely get more than that on a 2 or 3 year deal, which would make it worth doing. Assuming he doesn't blow up of course.

 

The only thing I'm surprised by is that, 1) he has trade value, and 2) he's pitching well enough to even tender an offer for next year. What has the world come to?

QO will be about $16 mil.

 

Also we are not even halfway thru the season. All of these scenarios assume he duplicates his first half, perhaps even improves his peripherals. Still HUGE assumptions, I bet there are multiple pitchers every year who meet this criteria for only half a season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Still I am in favor of no trade, because good value just won't be there. But let's not jump the gun and assume that good value will exist at season's end.

[pierre75275]

I think the first two things the twins will be looking for in any trade the twins make now and in the end of the year is going to be catcher, international slot bonus and comp picks. Comp picks aren't decided until after the season but I think the Twins would be willing to trade for one.

[twinssouth]

Really the question is who's going to go out of the rotation when Santana comes back, I believe July 5 (?);

 

Hughes

Gibson

Mays

Pelfrey

Millone

Nolasco

Santana

 

Yikes, that's 7 pitchers

 

Millone, Mays have options

Nolasco still could be on DL, except when he comes back, you know the Twins, they'll seem to do anything to get their money's worth out of that contract

 

So going forward, why not base the rotation on some of these ridiculous contracts they have doled out, unfortunately it's not the best rotation.

 

However, keeping with the Twins way, your

 

Contract Rotation;

 

Hughes

Santana

Nolasco

Pelfrey

Gibson

 

Sent back down to the farm

 

Mays

Millone

 

Going forward

 

Mays takes Pelfrey's spot in 2016

Millone enters the "you can never have enough pitchers" category

Berrios takes Nolasco's spot in 2017

 

When the other contracts expire, I'll have my Grand sons ready to go

 

As for our other young guns, ah, I don't know what to say

[70charger]

 

QO will be about $16 mil.

Also we are not even halfway thru the season. All of these scenarios assume he duplicates his first half, perhaps even improves his peripherals. Still HUGE assumptions, I bet there are multiple pitchers every year who meet this criteria for only half a season.

 

True dat. Let's ride it out a bit longer and not assume anything. That said, I like where it's been going so far.

 

Also, that QO has gone up considerably in just a couple years.

[jorgenswest]

 

Really the question is who's going to go out of the rotation when Santana comes back, I believe July 5 (?);

Hughes
Gibson
Mays
Pelfrey
Millone
Nolasco
Santana

Yikes, that's 7 pitchers

Millone, Mays have options
Nolasco still could be on DL, except when he comes back, you know the Twins, they'll seem to do anything to get their money's worth out of that contract

So going forward, why not base the rotation on some of these ridiculous contracts they have doled out, unfortunately it's not the best rotation.

However, keeping with the Twins way, your

Contract Rotation;

Hughes
Santana
Nolasco
Pelfrey
Gibson

Sent back down to the farm

Mays
Millone

Going forward

Mays takes Pelfrey's spot in 2016
Millone enters the "you can never have enough pitchers" category
Berrios takes Nolasco's spot in 2017

When the other contracts expire, I'll have my Grand sons ready to go

As for our other young guns, ah, I don't know what to say

Many things can happen in the space of three starts, but Santana may not improve the rotation. He better dominate in Rochester like Milone or expect to start in the pen. Pelfrey's spot is a given.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6673-replacing-santana/

[nicksaviking]

I think the odds that Pelfrey getting a QO are still quite slim.

 

Still, who would have thought that he'd be the first guy that the Twins might even have a decision to make about a QO.

 

It's really hard to believe he's not a lefty.  I didn't even know it was possible for a righty to have a 4.2 K/9 and a sub 4.00 ERA.

[LimestoneBaggy]

If Pelfrey pitches this way all the way through the year, and the Twins are in contention the entire time, I have no issues with a QO (even though I think he'd take a hard look at accepting it). A one-year contract is fine (and with continued success over a year, I'd likely welcome it). Anything over a year (without being exceptionally team friendly) would be Nick Blackburn-esk.

 

General Note: I still can't believe he's pitching like this....it's unreal. 

[drivlikejehu]

It would be insane to offer Pelfrey 1 year, $15 million+. I don't trust Ryan's judgment at all and still I don't worry about him doing that. 0% chance.

[nicksaviking]

 

It would be insane to offer Pelfrey 1 year, $15 million+. I don't trust Ryan's judgment at all and still I don't worry about him doing that. 0% chance.

 

I hope he keeps pitching well, but the odds that a right-handed pitcher with a 4.2 K/9 is good for three months has already been incredible.  Asking him to still be pitching like this for three more months is like a hitter getting a 28 game hitting streak and people start talking about his chances of catching DiMaggio.

[LimestoneBaggy]

 

It would be insane to offer Pelfrey 1 year, $15 million+. I don't trust Ryan's judgment at all and still I don't worry about him doing that. 0% chance.

 

Are we talking insane like regular reality, or we talking like sign Torii Hunter for 10M insane? I really don't care how much money a team throws at a player for one year. Two years...another story.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Are we talking insane like regular reality, or we talking like sign Torii Hunter for 10M insane? I really don't care how much money a team throws at a player for one year. Two years...another story.

 

We're talking contextually insane, based on the number of pitchers the Twins already have under contract for 2016, on top of the fact Pelfrey isn't actually good.

[Kwak]

Let's see:  7 pitchers this year:  Three (Hughes, Nolasco, and Santana) under contract; Two (Gibson and May) under team control; and Two (Milhone and Pelfrey) free agents at year end.  Barring a trade, the first five names will be around next year.  Then, there's Berrios not just banging on the door, but knocking it off its hinges.  And you say:  "Offer Pelfrey $16 MM to stay another year"?  That's an offer that can't be refused.  Thus, who are you trading to keep Pelfrey around?  Not to mention holding back the charging Berrios? If you really thing that much of Pelfrey, two years at double his pay will keep him around--and if you don't think so highly of him--then trade him in July.  Even package him with others to make a run at another Catcher.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Milone is technically under team control for next year.  Pretty sure this was his first year in arb.  He's got 2 more I believe (though I could be wrong there). 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Milone is technically under team control for next year. Pretty sure this was his first year in arb. He's got 2 more I believe (though I could be wrong there).

I don't recall either but he's definitely not an unrestricted FA after the season, that much I know.

[Kwak]

I'll check again, but if the Twins choose to "option" Milone next year, I believe he can decline--and declare free agency.  The point of FA is minor and misses the gyst of the argument--too many pitchers next year!  Retaining Pelfrey would only increase the problem.  A trade(s) are needed.

[drjim]

 

I'll check again, but if the Twins choose to "option" Milone next year, I believe he can decline--and declare free agency.  The point of FA is minor and misses the gyst of the argument--too many pitchers next year!  Retaining Pelfrey would only increase the problem.  A trade(s) are needed.

 

He's out of options though, isn't he?

[drjim]

I have another thought on Pelfrey trade. Unless the Twins collapse before the deadline, trading him for a prospect would be a disaster.

 

I could accept a scenario where the Twins could trade him for a bat at SS, C or possible RF, but really hard to see a match.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I'll check again, but if the Twins choose to "option" Milone next year, I believe he can decline--and declare free agency.  The point of FA is minor and misses the gyst of the argument--too many pitchers next year!  Retaining Pelfrey would only increase the problem.  A trade(s) are needed.

 

Out of options is one thing. Team control is another.  Out of options just means he cannot be sent down to the minors anymore.  At the end of the season though, there's only one team he can do business with.