Souhan: Buxton Deserves A Look in CF

[diehardtwinsfan]

Personally, I'd like to see Buxton have a month in AA where he's actually hitting well. Right now, he's striking out way too much with very underwhelming results. SSS I know, but I think he needs to show he's better than AA before he spends time in MLB... I'd think Hicks and Gomez would have taught us a thing or two about rushing players by now.

[stringer bell]

Certainly agree with the consensus that Buxton is not ready yet.  As Ashbury said, Buxton wasn't having much luck in spring training against minor league pitchers.  He still seems to be far from mastering AA.  I agree that he would be the best alternative defensively and he is the fastest person in the organization. 

 

I think that Rosario might be the next guy.  He is slightly outhitting Hicks, but he is a LH hitter and the person he could be replacing also hits from that side.  It has been noted that Hicks is still not hitting well against RH pitching.  Rosario has started the last two days in center for Rochester. 

[COtwin]

No need to rush Buck.  I want him to come up with some momentum.  Bringing him up now would be saying that he needs to save our defense and I actually want to see Robinson play everyday for a bit.  He can play defense and he hit well today.  Hicks by the way is hitting 260 against right-handers and 227 against lefties.  Just not driving the ball as much from the left side.  If we keep running Schafer out there I will want Rosario or Hicks up instead.  Hicks has a lower average, but is out OPSing Rosario.  I would prefer that both of them stay down longer, and I think Robinson is our best very short term solution.

 

 

 

Also.  Waldo made a couple nice plays today in LF.  Thought he moved a little less Delmonish.  I even liked his play for the ball in the corner that he didn't catch.  I think he will look smoother with more seasoning.

[spinowner]

OK, here's the deal. The goal for the Twins organization for the 2015 season should be (and I believe Ryan and Molitor concur with this) to prepare their up-and-comers as well as possible to contend in 2016 and beyond. That means playing Santana at SS because it's unlikely that he'll have a spot in the outfield when Buxton and Rosario (and, if we're really lucky, Hicks) make the big club for good. That means having Meyer and May pitch every 5 days and not go to the major league bullpen. That means giving Arcia days off against tough lefties until he becomes more consistent the rest of the time. The win-loss record of the 2015 major league team isn't really very important and I don't worry one bit about the play of the current outfield because Hunter, Schafer and Robinson will all be gone in a couple years anyway.

[Seth Stohs]

 

Weird that you object to the word "deserves" but then apply it Schafer.  Dude has 6+ years, over 1400 MLB PAs and another 500 in the minors in that time, that clearly demonstrate he does not deserve an MLB starting opportunity anymore.  (Not to mention his defensive credentials, which suggest he is stretched in CF.)

 

Also, in defense of Souhan, the word "deserves" is only in the headline, which he likely did not write.  The word does not appear in the article.  The strongest statement that Souhan seems to make is "the Twins might have to consider rushing Buxton to the majors."

 

 

Fair point, but I do feel that there are some subtle differences.

 

Buxton is arguably the most important prospect in the organization so no matter what, they need to do what is best for him. Just objectively looking at the numbers, and the strikeout percentage and such, in a very limited amount of time in AA, it's hard to say that he deserves it right now. (I also think that opinion could change in a month or two)

 

As for Schafer, yes, he has two full seasons worth of plate appearances spanning about 7 years. We all agree that most likely he's a 4th outfielder and not a starter. However, last year was his first real, extended opportunity to play full time and he came through fairly well. With no obvious options, I do think that he deserved the first crack at it to start this season. I would say that he doesn't deserve as long of a leash as a more veteran, more experienced player might get, but I have no problem saying he deserved the first shot.

 

Of course, by that definition, Eduardo Escobar deserves the starting shortstop job too... but that's for another thread. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Obviously there are light-years of difference between AA & Major League pitching. That said, I don't think there are many pitches in the majors that Buxton hasn't already seen. Just not with anywhere near the frequency or consistency. I'm not certain that batting ninth and struggling in the majors would be that detrimental to Byron's development, as opposed to leading off and fairing somewhat better in AA. In addition to having unfettered access to daily mentorship from the likes of Molitor, Brunansky, Hunter & Mauer, he would also have use of what I can only assume are superior video and training facilities at the big league level. Whether in Mineapolis or Chattanooga or Rochester, he's still gonna need to learn which pitches he can handle and which ones to let go.In spite of all that I think the Twins best option if Schaeffer isn't cutting it, is to go with Hicks to buy time. We know the defense would be adequate and if he tanks again quite frankly, who cares? Three strikes and 'yer out! This is baseball afterall.

being around Hunter is enough reason to keep Buxton in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As for Schafer, yes, he has two full seasons worth of plate appearances spanning about 7 years. We all agree that most likely he's a 4th outfielder and not a starter. However, last year was his first real, extended opportunity to play full time and he came through fairly well. With no obvious options, I do think that he deserved the first crack at it to start this season. I would say that he doesn't deserve as long of a leash as a more veteran, more experienced player might get, but I have no problem saying he deserved the first shot.

First opportunity to play full time?  Schafer basically met or exceeded his August-September 2014  Twins playing time in his first three MLB seasons, multiple consecutive months in each of 2009, 2011, and 2012.

 

He deserved to be the primary CF option about as much as Alex Presley and Darin Mastroianni (two other marginal acquisitions who the Twins quickly made their primary Hicks fallback options).

 

I have no problem with leaving Buxton in AA for now, but the idea that anybody in the Twins organization "deserves" the CF job right now is crazy.  Ever since the Span trade, they have repeatedly given the CF job to guys who didn't deserve it, and failed to acquire anybody who actually would deserve it.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yeah let's see Buxton hit for a few solid weeks before even having this discussion. If it's defense that Souhan is looking for (join the club, buddy) then maybe Robinson is worth a look next.

[stringer bell]

 

No need to rush Buck.  I want him to come up with some momentum.  Bringing him up now would be saying that he needs to save our defense and I actually want to see Robinson play everyday for a bit.  He can play defense and he hit well today.  Hicks by the way is hitting 260 against right-handers and 227 against lefties.  Just not driving the ball as much from the left side.  If we keep running Schafer out there I will want Rosario or Hicks up instead.  Hicks has a lower average, but is out OPSing Rosario.  I would prefer that both of them stay down longer, and I think Robinson is our best very short term solution.

 

 

 

Also.  Waldo made a couple nice plays today in LF.  Thought he moved a little less Delmonish.  I even liked his play for the ball in the corner that he didn't catch.  I think he will look smoother with more seasoning.

According to milb.com, Hicks is hitting .227 w/ a .579 OPS vs. RH pitching.  Rosario comes in at .292 .721 in the same split.  I think we can all agree that these very small sample sizes and that it is really early.  I think Rosario has a future with the Twins and I don't think Hicks does.  As I noted earlier, Rosario has started the last two games in center field, so I do think he is a candidate to replace Jordan Schafer.

[Platoon]

Not in defense of Souhan, but I had a friend once who was a wrestler in Verne Gagnes stable. He told me it makes no difference if you are a good guy or a bad guy, but the only way you survive and make money is to develop a sticht. The crowd has to love or hate you, but indifference will put you out of work. So goes it for columnists. Souhan is not a baseball writer, he is a pot stirrer. And it worked in this case. But since the pot is boiling and I jumped in: I would leave Buxton in TN. And most of the rest of them. Barring a total collapse by an individual prospect I would start filtering them in after the ASG. Buxton would help the Twins win a couple more games, and likely cause the pitchers to lose less sleep. But, to bring him up now, to fill a hole, with the way this roster is constructed, would be an indication that the Twins think they can contend. To me this would indicate a level of delusion that would be borderline certifiable!

[Steven Buhr]

Put me down as being in the "get Buxton to the big leagues asap" camp.

 

Agreed that it has nothing to do with "deserving" it. It has everything to do with the fact that he's going to struggle at first, no matter when he debuts at the top level, so I really don't want that to be pushed back any further than it has to be.

 

I have no problem with letting the Twins benefit from his defense while he learns to hit MLB pitching in 2015. It's better than waiting until 2016.

 

All of that said, the concussion issue is a real concern. If they think his struggles are tied to residual concussion recovery, that is reason enough for me to leave him alone for now, rather than have him try to adjust to MLB pitching while still trying to get through the concussion recovery process.

[Mike Sixel]

Was Hrbek ready when he came up from A ball? Was Viola ready his first year?

 

That said, I think this....

 

Buxton is not ready to hit up here

He will not be up this year at all, since he won's show he's ready for months, and they won't burn a year of control for 6 weeks of time up here

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

But, to bring him up now, to fill a hole, with the way this roster is constructed, would be an indication that the Twins think they can contend. To me this would indicate a level of delusion that would be borderline certifiable!

I don't think bringing up Buxton implies contention.  In fact, it may very well imply the opposite -- we are not contending, so we can afford growing pains in MLB.  Similar to how Guzman & Milton skipped AAA in the late 90's, and Vargas last year.

 

That said, the guy needs to return to a baseline of acceptable hitting before any such promotion, particularly in K and BB departments.

[Loosey]

 

Kind of concerning none of these "great prospects" is forcing the issue. It would be nice if some these guys would start doing that.

It's still as small sample size.  The strikeouts are somewhat concerning, but if he has the skill set we expect him to have he will adjust and get better as we move along into the season.  I would like to keep him in AA / AAA all year and really season him for next year.

[gunnarthor]

I think it's fair to Buxton to let him get going in AA first.  He's already had something like 3 rain outs.  Hard to get a rhythm going. Let him play well for a month and then talk about bringing him up.

[bird]

 

First opportunity to play full time?  Schafer basically met or exceeded his August-September 2014  Twins playing time in his first three MLB seasons, multiple consecutive months in each of 2009, 2011, and 2012.

 

He deserved to be the primary CF option about as much as Alex Presley and Darin Mastroianni (two other marginal acquisitions who the Twins quickly made their primary Hicks fallback options).

 

I have no problem with leaving Buxton in AA for now, but the idea that anybody in the Twins organization "deserves" the CF job right now is crazy.  Ever since the Span trade, they have repeatedly given the CF job to guys who didn't deserve it, and failed to acquire anybody who actually would deserve it.

 

 

Yeah, I agree with this. Ryan should have given us better than Pressly/Mastro/Hicks two years ago. This year? I don't really care much to start the season, just hoping that either Rosario or Buxton dominate for a few weeks and force a decision. I'd expect most of the young players-Santana, Vargas, May, Graham, etc- who will be part of the 2016 roster to take some lumps here, especially during the first half of 2015. Alex and Darin ticked me off, but I just can't get worked up about Jordan and Shane at this point.

[COtwin]

 

According to milb.com, Hicks is hitting .227 w/ a .579 OPS vs. RH pitching.  Rosario comes in at .292 .721 in the same split.  I think we can all agree that these very small sample sizes and that it is really early.  I think Rosario has a future with the Twins and I don't think Hicks does.  As I noted earlier, Rosario has started the last two games in center field, so I do think he is a candidate to replace Jordan Schafer.

Sorry.  My bad.  MiLB is slow updating the splits at times.  Thought that the days game hadn't been added in yet.  Agree about small sample size.  

[twinscowboysbulls]

It would be very 'Twinsy' to throw a hitter into the fire to learn on the job. While Fireball pitchers that could get outs in the bigs waste bullets in the minors...

 

I hope they wait until at least June, unless he is tearing the cover off...

[big dog]

 

Was Hrbek ready when he came up from A ball? Was Viola ready his first year?

 

That said, I think this....

 

Buxton is not ready to hit up here

He will not be up this year at all, since he won's show he's ready for months, and they won't burn a year of control for 6 weeks of time up here

I agree with you, he's not ready yet.  Your interesting rhetorical questions deserve a response- I didn't remember how Hrbek/Viola were doing in the minors, so now I do and will share that with anyone interested.

 

Hrbek's age 21 A-ball season before his late-season callup in 1981:

 

121 game

535 PAs

.379 BA

1.076 OPS

27 HRs

111 RBIs (I know, not that meaningful...but still)

 

Herbie finished second in ROY voting in 1982.

 

Viola didn't have nearly the minor league track record Hrbek did, but Herbie came out of high school and Viola had been a very good pitcher in college.  Viola had been decent in AA as a 21-yr old, then left Toledo (AAA) after 8 starts with an era of 3.88.  Viola was called up in 1982 at age 22.

 

He had two really bad years as a starter his first two years in Minnesota. 

1982: 4-10, 5.21 ERA, 82 ERA+

 

1983: 7-15, 5.49 ERA, 77 ERA+

 

I'm not convinced bringing him up that soon was helpful for him.  That's a year and a half of bad, bad pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

I sincerely love that you answered my rhetorical question. Of course, I am home sick, so take my judgement with some salt.....

[Major League Ready]

 

Ya know, Seth, if I'm the guy pulling the trigger to fix the CF mess, I'd probably go back to what worked last year:  Danny Santana in CF and Eduardo Escobar at short. 

Worst idea ever.  We have already retarded Santana development and why.  So that we could win an extra game or two in 90+ loss season.  I hope the front office finally starts embracing that we are a rebuilding team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Worst idea ever.  We have already retarded Santana development and why.  So that we could win an extra game or two in 90+ loss season.  I hope the front office finally starts embracing that we are a rebuilding team.

Santana came up in May last year, played SS his first few games, and hit quite well from the start.  Escobar was already hitting well too.  You think the Twins would have been better off benching or demoting one of them for the remainder of the season?

 

We got to see almost full seasons of everyday MLB play from both Santana and Escobar last year.  That has value, quite possibly even more value than additional AAA SS reps.

 

At this point, I think the Twins error might be the 2015 waffling, switching Santana back without coming up with a better solution in the outfield.  Not necessarily the original decision to get both their bats in the lineup in 2014.

[ashbury]

Any team whose success hinges on having both Eduardo Escobar's and Danny Santana's bats in the lineup at the same time is seriously flawed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Any team whose success hinges on having both Eduardo Escobar's and Danny Santana's bats in the lineup at the same time is seriously flawed.

Did I say their success hinged on it? We got a good look at both of them, which we wouldn't if we would have been so strict about positions.

 

It seems like Santana is getting talked about like some kind of very top prospect who was thrown off his game. I think he was and is a lot more of a borderline prospect than most people give him credit for, on both sides of the ball. Those guys get shifted around all the time. He had already played both 2B and OF a little in the minors. Plouffe played some 3B and 2B too.

 

And not every player has some incontrovertible right to play and fail at the primary position in MLB first. Good talent evaluation can avoid a lot of that.

[tobi0040]

 

Fair point, but I do feel that there are some subtle differences.

 

Buxton is arguably the most important prospect in the organization so no matter what, they need to do what is best for him. Just objectively looking at the numbers, and the strikeout percentage and such, in a very limited amount of time in AA, it's hard to say that he deserves it right now. (I also think that opinion could change in a month or two)

 

As for Schafer, yes, he has two full seasons worth of plate appearances spanning about 7 years. We all agree that most likely he's a 4th outfielder and not a starter. However, last year was his first real, extended opportunity to play full time and he came through fairly well. With no obvious options, I do think that he deserved the first crack at it to start this season. I would say that he doesn't deserve as long of a leash as a more veteran, more experienced player might get, but I have no problem saying he deserved the first shot.

 

Of course, by that definition, Eduardo Escobar deserves the starting shortstop job too... but that's for another thread. 

 

I prefer the word "earned" to "deserves". As in, Mike Pelfrey deserves a spot in the rotation because he has a contract and he has x innings in the big leagues. It has a legacy or entitlement connotation that doesn't sit well with me.  Well, has Pelfrey earned the spot? Is he one of the best five starters we have?  Those are different and better questions IMO.

 

As it relates to CF, the issue is we don't have anyone that has earned that spot. We have handed the position to 5-6 players over the last 2-3 years and nobody has earned it, save Danny Santana who we don't view as a long term CF. 

 

Buxton has played a total of 11 games above A ball. In the 10 this year he has an OPS of .580.  He clearly has rust to shake off from last year.  It is nonsensical to promote him now, even with other bad options because you don't want to ruin his confidence and he needs to work through the rust in AA.

 

I think Rosario is actually closer than Buxton.  He has played 160 games above A ball. While his OPS of .680 above A ball is not ripping it up, he does have 60 extra base hits in those 160 games and would provide adequete defense.  I would like to see his average and OBP rise, but I am also less worried about ruining him long term.

 

 

[gil4]

 

I would argue that a player can be brought up just on defense, but not the top prospect in baseball who has the offensively potential that Buxton does. Simmons wasn't the top prospect in baseball nor does he have the potential on offense as Buxton. He also didn't basically miss the entire previous year.

Simmons also had 2 years at a JUCO with an outstanding* baseball program.  Buxton was drafted out of a small high school and one of the concerns was the competition level he had faced.

 

* unless you hold shady recruiting against them

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Hoping this negative post will somehow spark Buxton to go off on a tear.

 

Many rushed to defend him after one 4 hit game against terrible pitching. Since then, he is 2 for 24.

 

His last 200 at bats in the minors and fall league have been aweful. Okay, you say "he was hurt!" Okay, then that's another worry. Maybe that's a legit excuse, but what if he never bounces back? It's possible.

 

He's young. But, there 5 other OF's in the Sourhern Leafue alone that are all producing more than him at the moment. So, age is no longer a huge defense for him.

 

I looked at last years top 10-15 CF's by WAR and all but a few were up by 22, and several before that. Which, he could still easily be on pace for, but not with more setbacks or slowed development.

 

I'm just hoping he's not the next Felix Pie.

 

There, that should do it. Now please prove me wrong Byron and make me feel better about our future, or my in laws might convince my son to be a Cubs or White Sox fan when he's old enough.

[ashbury]

There, that should do it. Now please prove me wrong Byron and make me feel better about our future, or my in laws might convince my son to be a Cubs or White Sox fan when he's old enough.

Let me pile on by pointing out that at this writing Buxton is Buck-Ninety-Sixton.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

Let me pile on by pointing out that at this writing Buxton is Buck-Ninety-Sixton.

Crap, 0-4 again today. Now 2 for 28, since his only muliti-hit game this year. Down to a .180 avg after 50 at bats. But, he did not K today (looking for something positive.)

 

Seriously though, he has to turn this around, right?! Small sample size, he was injured before and now rusty, AA is a tough jump....and all that jazz? Or, is there legit cause for concern?

 

I keep looking for his results each day, and lets just say I have ONE good happy day after looking him up.

 

**and I meant there is 5 OF's that are younger than him that are all outproducing him, just in the Southern League alone.

[stringer bell]

Buxton will be fine, but he is not close to ready.  Four of the Twins top prospects in Chattanooga were brutal today.  Tomorrow is another day.