Souhan: Buxton Deserves A Look in CF

[John Kelsey]

He's stopped striking out. I think the results will be coming soon. 

[Mike Sixel]

Elite players are up by 21 or 22.......and are successful. that's what makes them elite, not merely good. I still believe he'll be at least good, I'm beginning to wonder if he'll be elite.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Elite players are up by 21 or 22.......and are successful. that's what makes them elite, not merely good. I still believe he'll be at least good, I'm beginning to wonder if he'll be elite.

That's definitely not always or even almost always true. Josh Donaldson made his full season debut at 27. Chase Utley at 26. Jose Bautista at 25. Joey Votto when 24.

[Mike Sixel]

There was research on this on Fangraphs 1 or 2 years ago. yes there are some that aren't.....but most ELITE players are.

[Loosey]

 

Elite players are up by 21 or 22.......and are successful. that's what makes them elite, not merely good. I still believe he'll be at least good, I'm beginning to wonder if he'll be elite.

Well he is 21 years old until December.  Assuming he comes up next year that means he will be up by the time he is 22.  So according to your metric he can still be elite then.

[shs_59]

Souhan is an idiot. acutally that would be a rather light abrasion to the term idiot.

 

Souhan has been dead to me for a long time, I'm not a Minnesotan so i don't have to put up with his articles (thank goodness)

 

But isn't he also the one that was a proponent to Petino's son as coach but Hates Jerry Kill and wanted him fired?

 

yeah ok.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well he is 21 years old until December.  Assuming he comes up next year that means he will be up by the time he is 22.  So according to your metric he can still be elite then.

 

Agreed, but I am more nervous than I was before. Before I was sure he was going to be very good/awesome. Now, doubts are creeping in.......not sure why, it is such a tiny sample.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

That's definitely not always or even almost always true. Josh Donaldson made his full season debut at 27. Chase Utley at 26. Jose Bautista at 25. Joey Votto when 24.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

That is why I compared him to only CF'ers that are up now. Almost all the top 15 from last year were up by 21-22. Athletic positions play up earlier, since the glove matters and often peaks much earlier than the bat.

 

Speed is just there always, where power develops later. You can't compare Buxton to Bryant, or the power bats you mentioned. You compare him with to Betts, Ellsbury, Pompey, and the like. Good CF'era get brought early, since their defense is usually the best while they are young and can be useful on the base paths at least offensively.

 

I don't think he'll be Felix Pie, but he ain't going to be no Trout. I'm thinking he ends up similar to a Dexter Fowler, who I think is pretty damn good and underrated.

[nytwinsfan]

 

That is why I compared him to only CF'ers that are up now. Almost all the top 15 from last year were up by 21-22. Athletic positions play up earlier, since the glove matters and often peaks much earlier than the bat.

Speed is just there always, where power develops later. You can't compare Buxton to Bryant, or the power bats you mentioned. You compare him with to Betts, Ellsbury, Pompey, and the like. Good CF'era get brought early, since their defense is usually the best while they are young and can be useful on the base paths at least offensively.

I don't think he'll be Felix Pie, but he ain't going to be no Trout. I'm thinking he ends up similar to a Dexter Fowler, who I think is pretty damn good and underrated.

 

He had a concussion and about three other injuries, otherwise he'd almost certainly be up by now. He doesn't turn 22 until December. There is no doubt in my mind he will up before he is 23 unless one of his legs falls off. Relax.

 

[Loosey]

 

Agreed, but I am more nervous than I was before. Before I was sure he was going to be very good/awesome. Now, doubts are creeping in.......not sure why, it is such a tiny sample.

Probably because you are a Minnesota sports fan and accustomed to failure. 

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

He had a concussion and about three other injuries, otherwise he'd almost certainly be up by now. He doesn't turn 22 until December. There is no doubt in my mind he will up before he is 23 unless one of his legs falls off. Relax.

Yes, he's still likely on pace to be up by at least 22, and at worst 23 if things don't go well. But, that isn't anything special really.

 

I still think he'll be really good, just think injuries or not, there is reason for concern.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is a foolish article. Buxton doesn't "deserve" anything but more importantly, the Twins need to stop making decisions because their CF options are a mess. They need to do what's best for the individual players and that means Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton stay in the minors until they "deserve" a promotion.

[tobi0040]

 

Elite players are up by 21 or 22.......and are successful. that's what makes them elite, not merely good. I still believe he'll be at least good, I'm beginning to wonder if he'll be elite.

 

I looked at Fangraphs and tallied up the top 15 position players by WAR from 2013 and 2014. The average debut age is 22.7, median 22.66.  So as many are after 22 than before.  I have to admit this is an earler debut age than I would have thought (granted pitchers are probably a little later).  In the case of Buxton,  a debut of this year would be 21 with a throw away year.  He certanly will debut before he is 23. 

 

 

Player                      Debut Age
Mike Trout                  19.95
Andrew McCutchen    22.66
Josh Donaldson           24.4
Carlos Gomez              21.5
Miguel Cabrera             20.1
Matt Carpenter              25.5
Robinson Cano             22.6
Ben Zobrist                    25.1
Adrian Beltre                 19.2
Paul Goldschmidt           23.9
Buster Posey                  22.5
Jose Bautista                  23.5
Alex Gordon                    23.2
Evan Longoria                22.5
Hunter Pence                    24
 
Average                    22.70
Median                      22.66

 

[jokin]

 

I looked at Fangraphs and tallied up the top 15 position players by WAR from 2013 and 2014. The average debut age is 22.7, median 22.66.  So as many are after 22 than before.  I have to admit this is an earler debut age than I would have thought (granted pitchers are probably a little later). 

 

 

Player                      Debut Age
Mike Trout                  19.95    
Andrew McCutchen    22.66
Josh Donaldson           24.4
Carlos Gomez              21.5
Miguel Cabrera             20.1
Matt Carpenter              25.5
Robinson Cano             22.6
Ben Zobrist                    25.1
Adrian Beltre                 19.2
Paul Goldschmidt           23.9
Buster Posey                  22.5
Jose Bautista                  23.5
Alex Gordon                    23.2
Evan Longoria                22.5
Hunter Pence                    24
 
Average                    22.70
Median                      22.66

 

Great chart, although I'm stunned in the other direction.  Only 4 out of your list of 15 players debuted before 22.5 years of age.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Great chart, although I'm stunned in the other direction.  Only 4 out of your list of 15 players debuted before 22.5 years of age.

People have a very skewed perception of when baseball players debut. Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera are extreme outliers in today's game.

 

Joe Mauer was as polished a baseball player as I've ever seen and he debuted at 20.352, or about one year younger than Buxton is now and Joe didn't lose a full year of baseball to injuries in the minors.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is a foolish article. Buxton doesn't "deserve" anything but more importantly, the Twins need to stop making decisions because their CF options are a mess. They need to do what's best for the individual players and that means Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton stay in the minors until they "deserve" a promotion.

Foolish headline, but I thought the article was decent.  Jordan Schafer will be replaced, and when we do that, there is a chance that Buxton might be the best option.

 

Of course, the article doesn't really set a date or performance threshold, but if Buxton turns things around and gets close to an .800 OPS in AA, with a decent handle on those strikeouts, that may be all it takes.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Speaking of AA strikeouts, I know they had a rash of them to open the season, but could it also be an effect of Mientkiewicz's tone down there?  Which would be a little ironic, because he didn't K much as a player himself.

[Vanimal46]

 I'm firmly in the bring Buxton up ASAP camp, so he can get the kinks out in a rebuilding year. For those that are on the other side of the fence saying he's not ready, what are the magic numbers you need to see in order to say he's ready? And for how long do you need to see it: one week? two weeks? two months?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

 I'm firmly in the bring Buxton up ASAP camp, so he can get the kinks out in a rebuilding year. For those that are on the other side of the fence saying he's not ready, what are the magic numbers you need to see in order to say he's ready? And for how long do you need to see it: one week? two weeks? two months?

An OPS in AA that isn't below average would be a good start.

[tobi0040]

 

Great chart, although I'm stunned in the other direction.  Only 4 out of your list of 15 players debuted before 22.5 years of age.

 

I would say I was also stunned at some of the names.  Ben Zobrist?  I don't know that he would have been in the first 50 guys I named.

[Vanimal46]

 

An OPS in AA that isn't below average would be a good start.

 

Okay. He's 50 at-bats in on the young season so far. One week of tearing the cover off the ball will make that OPS skyrocket. Then is he ready?

[tobi0040]

I just did the same thing for pitchers. It was actually lower.  22.19 for average and 22.3 for median.  I excluded Yu Darvish's debut age in those calcs.

 

Name                     WAR                Debut Age
1 Clayton Kershaw 14.7                     20.2
2 Felix Hernandez   11.7                    19.3
3 Adam Wainwright 11.4                      24
4 Max Scherzer        11.1                    23.6
5 David Price            10.6                     23
6 Corey Kluber          10                      25.4
7 Chris Sale              9.9                       21
8 Jon Lester              9.1                      21.3
9 Jordan Zimmermann 9                        22.9
10 Anibal Sanchez        9                       22.3
11 Cole Hamels            8.8                     22.3
12 Jose Quintana         8.3                     23.3
13 Madison Bumgarner 8.1                    20.1
14 Yu Darvish               8.1                    25.7
15 Stephen Strasburg    7.8                   21.9
  
  Average 22.19
  Median 22.3

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Okay. He's 50 at-bats in on the young season so far. One week of tearing the cover off the ball will make that OPS skyrocket. Then is he ready?

No. He missed an entire year. I'd like to see him take a consistent approach for 3-4 weeks before making a move.

[Willihammer]

Buxton batting 180/240/300. Um no he doesn't deserve a promotion right now.

[nicksaviking]

 

Buxton batting 180/240/300. Um no he doesn't deserve a promotion right now.

 

Jordan Schafer is offended that you think those numbers are bad.

[tobi0040]

Someone also made the comment of hearing what scouts have to say.  Especially with whispers of him struggling with breaking balls.  He may be able to put up a good overall line in AA, but if scouts say he is having a tough time with the few pitchers in AA that have big league breaking balls.....then the overall line doesn't mean a ton.  He is going to see breaking ball after breaking ball in the big leagues. 

 

I think the guy is going to be really good eventually. Let's just not rush it.

[ashbury]

 

Someone also made the comment of hearing what scouts have to say.  Especially with whispers of him struggling with breaking balls. 

Whispers? Only for the hard of hearing.

 

http://www.audiotoniq.com/sites/default/files/u97/SNL%20Hearing%20pic.jpeg

 

"OUR TOP STORY... BYRON BUXTON... IS HAVING TROUBLE... LAYING OFF SLIDERS... IN THE DIRT."

[Hrbowski]

I don't think Buxton is ready yet, if he gets in a good streak (at least ten games of very good hitting) call him up, but I would rather have them trade for a guy like Will Venable.

[ShouldaCouldaWoulda]

I looked at Fangraphs and tallied up the top 15 position players by WAR from 2013 and 2014. The average debut age is 22.7, median 22.66. So as many are after 22 than before. I have to admit this is an earler debut age than I would have thought (granted pitchers are probably a little later). In the case of Buxton, a debut of this year would be 21 with a throw away year. He certanly will debut before he is 23.

 

 

Player Debut Age

Mike Trout 19.95

Andrew McCutchen 22.66

Josh Donaldson 24.4

Carlos Gomez 21.5

Miguel Cabrera 20.1

Matt Carpenter 25.5

Robinson Cano 22.6

Ben Zobrist 25.1

Adrian Beltre 19.2

Paul Goldschmidt 23.9

Buster Posey 22.5

Jose Bautista 23.5

Alex Gordon 23.2

Evan Longoria 22.5

Hunter Pence 24

 

Average 22.70

Median 22.66