What do the Twins need to do?

[DocBauer]

Ok, Gardenhire and Anderson are gone now, regardless of which side of the fence you reside on. And we all sit and wait, expectantly and impatiently, for the next manager and coaching staff to hopefully lead the next wave of Twins talent and winning ways. I refer to it as the "third wave" in recent Twins history. TK, his staff, and McPhail started this in 1987. There were some bad years, to be sure, but there was also a lot of greatness in individual players and two World Series wins. At the end, there was the beginning of the next era.

 

Ryan and Gardenhire never won a WS, but there was outstanding success overall, and multiple winning seasons and playoff teams.

 

And now, while we await this next or impending "third wave" of future Twins players and hoped for/expected success, still awaiting the announcement of who the field general will be, and his lieutenants, it's still within our scope to view what we have, what is coming, what could be, and to ask ourselves: "what do the Twins need to do?"

 

Now remember, there has been rhetoric from the FO about not lowering the payroll much.

 

(Keeping Duensing, Milone, Suzuki's raise, and pre-arb settlements probably puts payroll about $74M)

 

But this is also the same FO who spent bigger than ever on FA contracts last season than ever before, and tried to STILL sign Garza, and DID sign Morales for part of the season. TR admitted recently that the '14 payroll ended up in the mid $90's, and commented that $100M should be "more than enough" to put a product on the field.

 

The Twins won't just go out and drop a payroll of $113M (2011 numbers), much less $120M. And I don't think they probably should for a rebuilding team with so much talent rising to the surface.

 

But playing GM, knowing what you know, hearing what you've heard, what would you do? How would you try to build the 2015 Twins?

[Zachary]

If I were the GM I would do whatever it takes to get a starting pitcher that is better than Hughes. At the very least then (provided Hughes doesn't fall back from this year) the team would have a respectable 1 & 2. 

[Otwins]

I would see what I could get for Plouffe Arcia or Santana. I would only make a trade if I felt I was getting back equal or better value. Need outfielder that can field and hit some and of course starting pitching.

The free agent money I have available I would spend on a starting pitcher. Masterson, Santana types

If I can't trade for outfielder I would prefer to fill internally. Free agent list does not seem like a fit. I would look hard at the minor league free agent outfielders. Make sure they can field and see if Bruno can get them to hit. Bullpen I would fix internally and also look at minor league free agents. I would not rely on May and Meyer until they prove they belong. I hope they are in the rotation and performing ok but I would not bank on them.

[old nurse]

The Twins need to not be in love with any of their players. They need to objectly look at their talent coming up and the talent on the major league roste. They need to make a Will Meyers kind of move to upgrade the talent on the big league roster and trade players who have more value than internal team projection. An example would be Joreg Polanco. He did well at the majors for his tryout. Can he be a part of a package that gets you a star pitcher, or was what was shown the tip of the iceberg? Can  Dozier and Plouffe  continue to do what they did in 2014. Can they get better. If a trade win shows up, Plouffe and a top 5-15 prospect for Tiijuan Walker for example.

[lightfoot789]

Trevor Plouffe - Lewis Thorpe - Eddie Rosario and AB Walker for Dellin Betances.  It would give the Twins a young ready made MLB pitcher (All Star) who could easily move into a starting role for the Twins.  The Yankees get immediate help at 3rd base with Plouffe and another left handed hitting 2nd baseman with Rosario.  Thorpe could be better than Betances  in 2-3 years and Walker could be the Power Right fielder they desperately need back in NY.  Thoughts.............

[big dog]

Hard to see the Yankees giving up pitching.  Besides, they just buy players.

[drjim]

Trevor Plouffe - Lewis Thorpe - Eddie Rosario and AB Walker for Dellin Betances. It would give the Twins a young ready made MLB pitcher (All Star) who could easily move into a starting role for the Twins. The Yankees get immediate help at 3rd base with Plouffe and another left handed hitting 2nd baseman with Rosario. Thorpe could be better than Betances in 2-3 years and Walker could be the Power Right fielder they desperately need back in NY. Thoughts.............

That's a lot to give up for a reliever. Betances can't "easily move into a starting role" because he has failed at it multiple times over many years.

[stringer bell]

I think the Twins can contend in 2015 and be an established contender going forward.  They should not sacrifice too much in the present to improve in 2015, but a few savvy moves can make this club more than competitive.  1)  Add a free agent pitcher.  With few exceptions, the top tier free agents don't provide the value for the dollars, but there are always bargains that pan out (Phil Hughes being exhibit A).  I have liked Justin Masterson to be that pick--one year with a big option number.  2)  Improve the outfield defense.  There aren't many (any) free agent outfielders who are plus defenders.  Finding someone undervalued and trading for him makes sense.  Bonus points if the hitter is right handed.  Last year the best hitting outfielder against left handed pitching was Chris Parmelee, and that includes Santana as an outfielder.  The Twins regulars with the most severe platoon splits were all left handed hitters against lefties, so the club needs someone who can bash left handed pitching and is a good or better defender.  3)  Rework the bullpen with power arms and flexibility.  The last two years, the bullpens have been remarkably stable and probably lucky (outperforming metrics).  In the last quarter of 2014 the regression that had to come started happening big-time.  Jettison older guys with so-so stuff and use the power arms the club has in the minors.  These guys will be able to be shuttled to the minors if another pitcher is needed or someone is ineffective or injured.

[mudcat14]

Plouffe alone is too much to give up for Betances.  Besides, the Twins are loathe to part with any prospect, especially Thorpe.  Nothing in Betances' history suggests that he can be anything more than he is right now.  A set-up man.  Finding/creating cheap set-up men has never been a problem for TR & the Twins.

[mudcat14]

If we were to deal Plouffe, I would call the Dodgers and see how serious they are about moving Kemp.  Trevor, Suzuki and a 10-20 prospect would help address positions of need for LA.  Owing him $110mil over the next 5 years could make the a motivated seller.   How big of a pain the a$$ and injury risk is Kemp?  Could Dozier be a viable 3B solution if Sano can't handle it?  Will our new staff be willing to roll with Pinto and a journeyman back-up behind the plate?  $21.5mil/year is a lot for Kemp, but not so much when you figure Plouffe and Suzuki would cost 15-18 between them over each of the next 3 years.  Sano, Pinto and other youngsters figure to make less than 10% of that.        

[Thrylos]

If I were the GM I would do whatever it takes to get a starting pitcher that is better than Hughes. At the very least then (provided Hughes doesn't fall back from this year) the team would have a respectable 1 & 2. 

 

Agreed.  But are you sure that this could not be Alex Meyer (or even Nolasco, with a better pitching coach?)  The Twins have this issue:

 

Nolasco

Hughes

Pelfrey

Gibson

May

Milone

 

Meyer

 

The first six out of options, the first three on sizable contracts, and the seventh maybe the best of them all.   Unless they subtract, there is no place to add.

 

I believe in Nolasco (he has proven to be a good pitcher before) and Meyer (I think he has ace stuff and his shoulder should be stronger another year removed from injury.)  I'd love to see a pitching coach who can do what the Pirates' pitching coach did with Liriano and Worley.  If you got a short and blow fuses, changing fuses and tried to get bigger ones does not solve the problem because they eventually blow.  I have always been of the opinion (based on performance of pitchers before and after they left the Twins vs. their Twins' performance) that Anderson was the problem.  Let's see how this group will do with a better pitching coach.

 

Finding a great pitching coach should be priority number one here.  I think that the Twins got the arms. 

[drjim]

GIbson, Milone and May all have at least one option left. They'll give Pelfrey all the chances they can to make the team, but it will likely be in the bullpen, if at all. There is plenty of room to add a starter or two.

 

I doubt a new pitching coach will do as much as people think.

[ashbury]

 If I play GM, I imagine myself having access to all the subjective player evaluation information I can muster, quantified into ceiling and floor values using my own in-house Jack Goin variant of WAR or whatever, both for 2015 and for careers...  I don't have this, obviously.  So I'm not going to lay out specific actions.  Main themes I'd have for this off-season and into early season 2015:

1. transition from our DH/1B/CornerOF heavy roster to one with better defense
2. remain in talent acquisition mode, making no 2015 moves that mortgage the future
3. spend for the sake of spending, if that's what it gets called, up to my budget, on desirable talent
4. integrate the new manager and coaching staff

You can never have too much pitching, we have a hole in LF, and we need an additional option in CF for the time being.  FA acquisition, or a trade that supports theme #1 above, are both good options, where a FA costs nothing but money being unspent anyway, and a trade can better allocate our resources (if the new manager says "this guy can't be my catcher", for example).

 

I'm tired of getting guys about whom it's said, "we can always DH him".

[drjim]

 If I play GM, I imagine myself having access to all the subjective player evaluation information I can muster, quantified into ceiling and floor values using my own in-house Jack Goin variant of WAR or whatever, both for 2015 and for careers...  I don't have this, obviously.  So I'm not going to lay out specific actions.  Main themes I'd have for this off-season and into early season 2015:

1. transition from our DH/1B/CornerOF heavy roster to one with better defense
2. remain in talent acquisition mode, making no 2015 moves that mortgage the future
3. spend for the sake of spending, if that's what it gets called, up to my budget, on desirable talent
4. integrate the new manager and coaching staff

You can never have too much pitching, we have a hole in LF, and we need an additional option in CF for the time being.  FA acquisition, or a trade that supports theme #1 above, are both good options, where a FA costs nothing but money being unspent anyway, and a trade can better allocate our resources (if the new manager says "this guy can't be my catcher", for example).

 

I'm tired of getting guys about whom it's said, "we can always DH him".

 

2 and 3 might not be compatible. That is pretty much the crux of the debate.

 

And unless they dump Arcia or Vargas, not sure what else you would proactively want done for 1. For LF they already have adequate defensive options on the roster, if they go the FA route there isn't a clear two way player that would represent much of an offensive upgrade.

[stringer bell]

2 and 3 might not be compatible. That is pretty much the crux of the debate.

 

And unless they dump Arcia or Vargas, not sure what else you would proactively want done for 1. For LF they already have adequate defensive options on the roster, if they go the FA route there isn't a clear two way player that would represent much of an offensive upgrade.

Yep, agree with drjim. "Pick up a two-way free-agent left fielder" is really going to require threading the needle. As I've been saying, it would be really nice for said outfielder to hit left handed pitching, given the struggles of Arcia and Schafer, which is the only reason why I think Hicks has a chance to make the club.

 

For a decade the Twins have had a substantial power deficit. With potential mashers like Vargas and Arcia, it seems to me that they need to find a way to keep those two in the lineup and grow into sluggers.

[pierre75275]

Sign Tomas. Sign Evin Santana.

Trade for one of AJ Pollock, Peter B, John Jay, Ben Revere or Denard Span should they be available.

Or,

Sign John Lester

Trade for one of AJ Pollock, Peter B, John Jay, Ben Revere or Denard Span should they be available.

Release or trade or non tender if possible:

Mike Pelfrey, Jared Burton, Anthony Swarzak Brian Dunesing Casey Fien Tommy Milone Ricky Nolassco Chris Collabello Eduardo Nunez Chris Parmalee Stephen Pryor

[Craig Arko]

Win 15-20 more games.

[Winston Smith]

Trade Arcia (he's not an outfielder and teams over pay for homeruns) to the Rays they need some power for one of Archer, Cobb or Odorizzi I'm not an expert on any of these guys by the way just guessing.

 

Trade for Bourjos or even Revere. Use Hicks and what ever in right.

 

Nolasco goes to the Dodges for  Crawford and some money. Crawford, Bourjos, Hicks outfield would be very good.

 

That gets us much better outfield defense which will make the pitching better and it improves team speed. Way to many slow DH types now, imo.

 

I'd be wiling to trade Plouffe for a solid return.

 

Of course, I'm a dumb fan and these may all be stupid! 

[TheLeviathan]

I'd like to see this next year:

 

SS Santana

2B Dozier

1B Mauer

DH Vargas

RF Arcia

3B Plouffe

LF Rasmus or Melky or Rios or whomever

C Suzuki

CF Bourjos

 

Bench

Escobar

Pinto

Schaefer

Nunez

 

Starters:

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

FA  (E. Santana, Shields, and Masterson would be my picks here)

Meyer/May

 

Bullpen:

Perkins

Fien

Swarzak

Pressley

Theilbar

Pelfrey

Milone

 

It's not going to be a great roster but it will be far better defensively in the OF, no key prospects are blocked, and there is a little bit of depth.  Who that OF and FA pitcher are I'm willing to be flexible.  

[ashbury]

2 and 3 might not be compatible.

They are if you do them compatibly.   Acquire a FA that is in actual demand, which means outbidding others, which means you have acquired talent that is arguably overpriced.  But as regards your own budget, you decide not to care.  Then, if and when this player is blocking a younger one, mid-2015 or later, work out a trade of this overpriced but talented and in-demand guy, in which you, The Twins Of All Teams, actually provide cash to make it more palatable for some other team to hand over a prospect or whatever.  That's the whole idea of having a wave of young talent coming up, isn't it?  Not to run continually under budget, but to use that budget room creatively to make the team better.  Oh, and if no younger player winds up being blocked, hey, you filled a hole with a good player.

 

This is what the Tigers did regarding Prince Fielder.  They added talent to their roster, and a year later they wound up with Ian Kinsler, a 5-win player for them in 2014, at lower cost.  Not a bad outcome.  You can't take a cookie cutter approach, so I don't know which player (probably a pitcher) the Twins should target, nor what the eventual outcome would be in terms of return.  There's a risk of a good player turning into a pumpkin, a la Nolasco, but again it's only money, in a period when the team is running under budget.

 

I like the general direction of the rebuild since 2011, but trading Span and Revere and getting 3 (soon to be 4) high draft picks isn't sustainable when you start winning, and I'm trying to think through what a sustainable pipeline might look like. To me, this is an avenue to consider.

[brvama]

Generally, I would tend to enter next season as standing pat.   Now I am not in the group that believes '15 presents a playoff contending team, but hopefully pushes a .500 club.  2016 is possible, but?  With a new manager and staff (including some holdovers), I think the goal this year to find out what they can do with what we have in house and coming up, FIRST. 

 

As we agree, LF and OF defense, along with pitching remain our major concerns.  Improving those areas outside the organization, is not the road I'd travel UNLESS it is for long-term.  That would likely leave out most free agents, but certainly trades are a possibility. I am willing to look at internal solutions first.  Next off-season is a different story.  Also, I will not rule out any in-season trades or acquisitions however.

 

So for LF, I think that at some point Rosario will be up and could fill that position.  He has the defensive skills, speed, and hitting ability to work in nicely.  That is assuming he continues to play near his AFL showing.  Until then, I'd use Shaefer and Hicks there.  I am also assuming the new manager understands how to play his players for their and the teams success.  

 

OF defense.  Here we are really talking about Arcia.  Can the new staff help him improve.  His hitting has too much potential to pass on to someone else.  Work on the defense and he becomes a plus RF, even as an average or slightly below, fielder.

 

Along the same vein, why would we move Vargas?  Possibly, the next "Papi."  For a long time DH has been a revolving door.  Another potential core player to build off.  Besides, he can be back-up 1B.

 

Now on pitching I agree with Thylos and don't have much to add there.  Yet I would still kick the tires on Masterson and see if he would sign for a Hughes like contract, 2 years or less.

 

To build a championship team, one needs a good core.  For 2016 and beyond, as of now, I believe that core starts with Perkins, Hughes, Gibson, Nolasco, Mauer, Dozier, Vargas, Arcia, and Santana. Coming soon are Mays, Meyers, Buxton, Sano, Burdi, Rosario, Berrrios, Reed, Pinto and Polanco.  Who am I missing?

 

Of course, some of these players will be busts, some need improvement, and some will flourish.  For the time being, players like Plouffe, Escobar, Hicks, and Shaefer fill in adequately until the cavalry arrives, then we will decide their fate. 

 

Mid 2015 and beyond becomes the time to start making the adjustments with external options, FA or trades.  My target is to get to mid-2016 with the core team I want to move forward with. 

[ashbury]

TR admitted recently that the '14 payroll ended up in the mid $90's,

"Admitted"?  Bragged a little, maybe.

 

It's possible that payroll on the books topped out around that figure.  But in terms of paychecks actually written, when you take into account that Morales, Correia and Willingham were traded, the amount was probably closer to the $86M that ESPN shows.

 

As GM I would be much closer to $100M spent than that.

[ashbury]

And unless they dump Arcia or Vargas, not sure what else you would proactively want done for 1.

I don't think I'd make wholesale changes.  Paying heed to my bullet item 4, the new coaching team needs time to acclimate and form their direct opinions about the players.  With no Parmelee or Colabello, some of the logjam of slow 1B/OF fielders disappears.  I think one more change will be enough, and it can come from one of three ways I have in mind: a) the coaching staff determines they can work with Arcia to get him up to snuff in right; b ) the coaching staff believes Pinto can be (developed into) a catcher on a World Series team; or c) trade Pinto late in Spring Training.  Any of these removes the "well, we can always DH him" argument that works against Vargas getting enough playing time due to 3 guys being in the mix.  And with that, I think the logjam is broken for the time being, leaving it to the manager's creativity to work the DH position.

[Zachary]

Agreed.  But are you sure that this could not be Alex Meyer (or even Nolasco, with a better pitching coach?)  The Twins have this issue:

 

Nolasco

Hughes

Pelfrey

Gibson

May

Milone

 

Meyer

 

The first six out of options, the first three on sizable contracts, and the seventh maybe the best of them all.   Unless they subtract, there is no place to add.

 

I believe in Nolasco (he has proven to be a good pitcher before) and Meyer (I think he has ace stuff and his shoulder should be stronger another year removed from injury.)  I'd love to see a pitching coach who can do what the Pirates' pitching coach did with Liriano and Worley.  If you got a short and blow fuses, changing fuses and tried to get bigger ones does not solve the problem because they eventually blow.  I have always been of the opinion (based on performance of pitchers before and after they left the Twins vs. their Twins' performance) that Anderson was the problem.  Let's see how this group will do with a better pitching coach.

 

Finding a great pitching coach should be priority number one here.  I think that the Twins got the arms. 

 

Having too many quality starters is a problem I would like to have.

 

If It is me then I add a new pitcher like this. 

1. Make a list of your starting pitchers from best to worst

2. Put your newly acquired pitcher on top of that list. 

3. Guy #6 is no longer on that list. 

 

There are too many "what if's" with that list going into next season. Can we bank on Nolasco or Pelfrey at this point? Or May or Meyer? 

[Boom Boom]

If I was running the Twins like a video game, I'd work to trade Mauer.

 

Since I'm pretty sure that won't happen, I'd move him to the outfield and put Vargas at first.

[Physics Guy]

Win 15-20 more games.

This should have been added to the topic title.

[DocBauer]

I'd like to see this next year:

 

SS Santana

2B Dozier

1B Mauer

DH Vargas

RF Arcia

3B Plouffe

LF Rasmus or Melky or Rios or whomever

C Suzuki

CF Bourjos

 

Bench

Escobar

Pinto

Schaefer

Nunez

 

Starters:

Hughes

Gibson

Nolasco

FA  (E. Santana, Shields, and Masterson would be my picks here)

Meyer/May

 

Bullpen:

Perkins

Fien

Swarzak

Pressley

Theilbar

Pelfrey

Milone

 

It's not going to be a great roster but it will be far better defensively in the OF, no key prospects are blocked, and there is a little bit of depth.  Who that OF and FA pitcher are I'm willing to be flexible.

 

This!

 

Just about right on with what makes most sense to me. Also flexible on which LF but Rios or Melky are my two choices as both are RH. I would argue on the lineup, however, and place whichever signee in the 5 hole behind Vargas and ahead of Arcia.

 

Also flexible on which SP FA to sign with the listed choices and a couple more I like, none of which breaks the bank. (Also a couple injured guys I'd consider taking a long hard medical look at, Billingsly for one)

 

I believe the bullpen will be very fluid through ST, perhaps the first month of the season, and is just hard to predict at this point. Tonkin or Oliveros could be there just as easily as Pressley at this point, for instance. I resist the temptation to spend on one significant, proven, setup caliber for a few reasons; the depth of options immediately available, 2-4 hard throwing young arms that may be ready as soon as mid season, the idea of a healthy Pelfrey being turned in to a short man potentially. However, I do invest a smallish $1-2M probably in someone I believe could be the next Burton, 2012 variety.

[DocBauer]

"Admitted"?  Bragged a little, maybe.

 

It's possible that payroll on the books topped out around that figure.  But in terms of paychecks actually written, when you take into account that Morales, Correia and Willingham were traded, the amount was probably closer to the $86M that ESPN shows.

 

As GM I would be much closer to $100M spent than that.

LOL @ bragging comment.

 

Yes to your books comment being a possibility, but the amount of investments actually made, and those attempted unsuccessfully, still very impressive and un characteristic for the Twins of the past. And tell me that it's not just me reading Pohlad's comments through the year that he sounds impatient and willing to open the checkbook again?

 

I would also be closer to that $100M, and it still wouldn't bankrupt the team. I still believe Ryan's couple comments concerning top out and max levels to be telling.

[twinscowboysbulls]

Pelfrey absolutely has to be in the bullpen or cut.

[Craig Arko]

This should have been added to the topic title.

I think of this statement of General Patton: "Never tell people how to do things. Tell them what to do and they will surprise you with their ingenuity."

 

Seems applicable to baseball, too.