Note to Twins.

[tobi0040]

1. We knew this team was going to be bad. The real question is whether it's 65 wins bad or 75 wins bad.

 

2. They've played two games. That is less than 1/80th of the season.

 

3. The Twins had this game in the bag and their All Star closer scuffled and then was let down by his defense. It happens. Whether it happens twice this season or once every two weeks will play out in time.

 

4. Two games.

 

Frankly, I am happier about Hicks having 4 hits and a BB in the first 2 games than I am upset about losing. His 3rd hit came on April 21st last year. It is more important for me that he gets off to a good start and gets his confidence up then we start 2-0 or 1-1. Perkins is going to close that game 9 times out of 10. In the grand scheme of things, how the young guys do is more important.

 

Arcia had a .735 OPS last year, he will figure it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Based on my memory of the projection threads, about 90% of people predicted they were 3-5 games better than last year. More people predicted same or worse than last year than predicted a .500 team.

 

I don't consider these bullish, that is like a 71 win team.

 

That sounds about right. Most people seem to think the team is between 69-74 wins. That's about where I'd put them, maybe on the lower end of that spectrum, in 70 win territory.

 

Really, I'm pretty positive about the start of this season. Plouffe and Hicks have looked pretty good, which goes a long way toward making this offense respectable. I'm not really worried about the pitching, either the rotation or the bullpen. Overall, the staff should be bad to mediocre, which is miles better than what we've seen in the past few years.

 

Overall, I think this team has the ability to be entirely mediocre if a few things go right for them... And that's enough for me right now.

 

But really, the rest of the team's performance has been overshadowed by Aaron Hicks' play in the first two games, which makes me very happy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Frankly, I am happier about Hicks having 4 hits and a BB in the first 2 games than I am upset about losing.

 

Hah, I just posted the same thing. I'm not worried about Perkins. Bad games happen. First outing of the year, cold weather, fastball was only hitting 91. That will change if he's healthy (and he appears to be healthy).

 

But the fact that Hicks looks competent at the plate is extremely encouraging.

[raindog]

Better get used to it, boys and girls. It's not getting any better.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

Teams waste good pitching performances all the time. From real aces and perceived aces and non-aces. Perpetrated by Mariano Rivera and by Mike Trombley. It happens. Hopefully Hughes pitches well today, the young guys keep hitting and we can all move on. That's the beauty of baseball and exactly why I love it more than football. Tomorrow you can make everyone forget.

 

The Twins could very well lose 95 games again this year. But hey, maybe they won't. This game says next to nothing about it either way.

[TheLeviathan]

Based on my memory of the projection threads, about 90% of people predicted they were 3-5 games better than last year. More people predicted same or worse than last year than predicted a .500 team.

 

I don't consider these bullish, that is like a 71 win team.

 

The bullish predictions have been about player performance - we have projections on this site of nearly 100% improvement from everyone on the roster between hitter projections, the starting pitching "having" to improve, etc. The only sobering take by any of the site's founders was largely met with criticism for being "too negative".

 

So yes, I'm a bit shocked by this reaction that "we all knew they were bad". Other than Nick Nelson - you all could've had me fooled on that. (And here is probably where we have distinctions about what one considers a "bad" team, but improving 10 wins doesn't seem like a negative outlook to me. That's an odd spin on that)

 

Either way, it's just two games. We're a few weeks/months away from knowing what this team is really about for certain.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Other than Nick Nelson - you all could've had me fooled on that.

 

That's not really fair, Levi. I've never suggested the Twins were anything close to a .500 team. Our arguments have entirely boiled down to whether the Twins are a 65-68 or a 70-73 win team.

 

Neither of those options are good. Neither are even mediocre. Our arguments have boiled down to whether the team is bad or awful. I don't see an optimistic prediction in there anywhere.

 

And here is probably where we have distinctions about what one considers a "bad" team, but improving 10 wins doesn't seem like a negative outlook to me. That's an odd spin on that.

 

The team spent $80-something million on pitching this offseason. Most of us are predicting a marginal "improvement" in that regard but only because they were so bloody awful last year that it doesn't take much to show improvement.

 

That's not an odd spin at all. The team is still bad, probably not as bad as last year. I don't consider that optimistic.

[pierre75275]

It would be nice if we could have a thread without somebody blaming Gardy or team management from everything from players provided to management of the game to the post game spread. Everybody understands Gardy and management are not popular. So can we not bring it up on every thread....please? There is always the star tribune for that.

[jgfellows]

The Spanish Inquisition.

 

 

Nobody expects that!!

 

 

For some weird reason,a majority of the games I went to last year had Correia starting. I always felt that he was more lucky than talented. Hopefully he'll be very very lucky this season!

[Monkeypaws]

I think you missed my point.

The reason I point out that Correia is not an ace is because you are not going to get many starts like this from him, when you do you HAVE to find a way to win, especially if said start is against a bad team with a bad starting pitcher.

 

Actually that was only a slightly better than average start for Correia. 6 innings, 3 runs, 2 earned. His ERA was only 4.18 last season. One run better than average.

 

You're not going to get 6 shutout innings from Correia very often, but this kind of performance is well within his reach to duplicate every other start or so.

[TheLeviathan]

Our arguments have entirely boiled down to whether the Twins are a 65-68 or a 70-73 win team.

 

You said yourself it may just boil down to semantics, but in the over/under thread everyone is over on the win total, jokin posted pitching stats that everyone agreed with and were about as statistically bullish as can be reasonably held, Seth did the same with hitting projections, and I could go on. There have been multiple threads deriding "negativity."

 

Sorry, but I find it a bit odd that people are feigning this idea of "well of course they're bad...everyone knew that!" From the tenor of many posts here it would've been hard to glean that opinion.

 

Not that two games should confirm/affirm anything for anyone. We're a long way from that.

[Beezer07]

Sometime later this season, the Twins will lose back to back games. In the first game, they'll struggle to score against a great starting pitcher. In the second game they'll score a bunch of runs, get a good start from the SP, and have the relievers blow it. Nobody will make a peep about the sky falling when this happens.

 

Seriously, it's one game that only seems important because it constitutes 1/2 the games this season. Relax. This thread is the epitome of sports fandom on the Internet

[Brock Beauchamp]

I don't know if I commented about it in the thread but I thought Jokin's estimations were too high. My own estimations were 3-4 wins lower for the rotation, IIRC. He predicted a WAR around 8 while my own was in the 4-ish range, or roughly one win per starter (obviously, the top two guys would provide more, the lower two guys less).

 

A vast improvement over 2013, still not good. And somewhat offset by low expectations for the offense.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't know if I commented about it in the thread but I thought Jokin's estimations were too high. My own estimations were 3-4 wins lower for the rotation, IIRC. He predicted a WAR around 8 while my own was in the 4-ish range, or roughly one win per starter (obviously, the top two guys would provide more, the lower two guys less).

 

A vast improvement over 2013, still not good. And somewhat offset by low expectations for the offense.

 

We'll certainly see. Hicks has looked so much better and Plouffe's opposite field hitting is a revelation that is shocking/encouraging too. (I'm not sure enough has been said about that. In two games I think he's gone opposite field more than all of last season. Didn't fact check that...but it feels right)

[halfchest]

This one just stung because it was the bullpen that gave the game up and that's probably our strongest part of the team. Don't blame Plouffe either, he didn't put that guy on 3rd base to begin with. You give Perk the ball with a 2 run lead, you feel pretty damn good about it. It just didn't work out.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hicks has looked so much better

 

In my opinion, easily the most important takeaway item from the first two games.

[Major League Ready]

In my opinion, easily the most important takeaway item from the first two games.

 

Amen!

[tobi0040]

I don't know if I commented about it in the thread but I thought Jokin's estimations were too high. My own estimations were 3-4 wins lower for the rotation, IIRC. He predicted a WAR around 8 while my own was in the 4-ish range, or roughly one win per starter (obviously, the top two guys would provide more, the lower two guys less).

 

A vast improvement over 2013, still not good. And somewhat offset by low expectations for the offense.

 

Leviathan, So "all the optimism" means you thought Jokin's pitching projections and Seth's hitting projections were too high. Even though 90% of the people believe the team will be 3-5 games better, which puts them in line with where Vegas has them.

 

I think you are generalizing way too much. I commented on Jokin's comments that he was likely 10-20 basis points high on three of the pitchers. Brock said something similar. By no means was the site as a whole overly optimistic or unreasonable on much of anything.

[deanlambrecht]

Better get used to it, boys and girls. It's not getting any better.

 

So you're predicting a 0-162 season?

[ScrapTheNickname]

I must have missed this one when I was playing in HS. Seemed like we practiced and played in snow plenty often.

 

Well, you're both right as far as I'm concerned. The weather conditions are what they are and the Twins have to play in them. But also the season - with additional rounds of playoffs - has gotten stupidly long. Start in March end in near-November! Originally it was 154 (or then 162) and then a 7-game playoff of the best two teams and everyone went home. So you're both right.

[Mr. Brooks]

Actually that was only a slightly better than average start for Correia. 6 innings, 3 runs, 2 earned. His ERA was only 4.18 last season. One run better than average.

 

You're not going to get 6 shutout innings from Correia very often, but this kind of performance is well within his reach to duplicate every other start or so.

 

1.18 of ERA is only "slightly better"?

You are basically saying that Yu Darvish was only "slightly better" than Correia last year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I guess what I've learned from the comments in this thread is you shouldn't have any opinions regarding one single game or one single event, because if you do you are overreacting and/or you think the sky is falling.

 

I guess you guys should probably just shut down Twins Daily until at least like the All Star Break so that we have a nice, large sample size before we have any discussions.

[twinsnorth49]

What I've learned is that some people feel 2 games might be a touch early to believe anything and that people's definition of bad is slightly different......

[Monkeypaws]

1.18 of ERA is only "slightly better"?

You are basically saying that Yu Darvish was only "slightly better" than Correia last year.

 

I meant this was only a slightly better than average start for Correia. 3 runs allowed in 6 innings equals a 4.5 ERA. 2 runs in 6 innings is 3. His ERA last season was 4.18, so somewhere between 2 and 3 runs allowed over 6 innings.

 

This was on the slightly better side of that average.

 

Here's another way of saying that his start was nothing out of the ordinary.

 

Last season Correia went 6 or more innings and gave up 2 or less runs 13 times in 31 starts, 42%, approaching half.

[Mr. Brooks]

I meant this was only a slightly better than average start for Correia. 3 runs allowed in 6 innings equals a 4.5 ERA. 2 runs in 6 innings is 3. His ERA last season was 4.18, so somewhere between 2 and 3 runs allowed over 6 innings.

 

This was on the slightly better side of that average.

 

Here's another way of saying that his start was nothing out of the ordinary.

 

Last season Correia went 6 or more innings and gave up 2 or less runs 13 times in 31 starts, 42%, approaching half.

 

While that last sentence is true, I tend to think Correia vastly overacheived last year. I wouldn't expect to get this type of pitching performance out of him very often this year. Need to take advantage when you do.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I know this is a bad team, I expect a 70 win team, but I am optimistic.

 

i am hopeful that the pitching on this team will be much better than last year and it will keep this team in closer games.

 

i am hopeful that players like Pinto, Colabello, and Arcia improve their fielding and realize their batting potential, to become fixtures of the future Twins team.

 

i am hopeful that Gibson takes over and anchors this pitching staff, and becomes the opening day starter 2015 by earning it, not by being the free agent acquisition du jor.

 

i am hopeful that the front office makes successful value building trades for the future with the many of the players that are not a part of this future, making room for prospects like Meyer, Rosario, and Buxton to begin their big league careers.

 

I am optimistic that this team becomes younger, and is filled with rookie mistakes, all the while maturing and improving on the big league stage. I don't think optimism and predicting a bad team are oxymoronic.

[DocBauer]

(Heavy sigh)

 

Come on guys. I truly love all of you. And I love to read all comments and opinions. It's why I'm on here to begin with, to share our mutual love and opinions for the Twins. Losing our second game with a lead and Perkins blowing it stinks! And I'm not happy about it in the least. And today we blew a lead but battled back and one, in another game played on the road and in terrible conditions. But we are ONLY three games in now.

 

I refuse to get too wrapped up in the positives or negatives of a handful of games, especially on the road in inclimate weather, but Colabello, Hicks and Pinto's homer today does put a smile on my face. And surprise, surprise, but Willingham and Kubel actually hit the ball.

 

Despite weather that is far worse than it was a week ago when ST was wrapping up, the calendar says its spring, baseball has started, and that makes all the world a little bit better.

[NoCryingInBaseball]

I know this is a bad team, I expect a 70 win team, but I am optimistic.

 

i am hopeful that the pitching on this team will be much better than last year and it will keep this team in closer games.

 

i am hopeful that players like Pinto, Colabello, and Arcia improve their fielding and realize their batting potential, to become fixtures of the future Twins team.

 

i am hopeful that Gibson takes over and anchors this pitching staff, and becomes the opening day starter 2015 by earning it, not by being the free agent acquisition du jor.

 

i am hopeful that the front office makes successful value building trades for the future with the many of the players that are not a part of this future, making room for prospects like Meyer, Rosario, and Buxton to begin their big league careers.

 

I am optimistic that this team becomes younger, and is filled with rookie mistakes, all the while maturing and improving on the big league stage. I don't think optimism and predicting a bad team are oxymoronic.

 

 

Enjoy your optimism Sconnie; it is a lot more refreshing than how this post began. I am certainly realistic enough to know that this year’s team is not a championship team…it’s all about the development of the prospects. I wouedl add Hicks to your list of hopefuls.

[Dr. Evil]

It would be nice if we could have a thread without somebody blaming Gardy or team management from everything from players provided to management of the game to the post game spread. Everybody understands Gardy and management are not popular. So can we not bring it up on every thread....please? There is always the star tribune for that.

 

I like to bi+ch when the team does horrible. It makes me feel better. Just like cheering when they have success makes me feel good. That does not mean that I don't understand two games does not make a season. It means I care and I expect a better product out of coaching and management. Both are underperforming. That's not opinion, it's fact. They truly are to blame.

[Dr. Evil]

62-100 prediction, maybe then ownership has enough and brings in new leadership.