Is Cruz the best Twins FA signing ever?

[RIP BYTO]

The old man has only been a Twin a short time and even shorter when you look at games played, but so far, is he the best FA signing in Twins history?

 

My top 3 prior to this year were:

1. Molitor

2. Morris

3. Davis

 

A lot can change between now and October, but I Am tempted to place him number 1 already. There are few players in Twins history that has me glued to the TV when he’s up to bat like him. Kirby Puckett being the exception.

 

Convince me otherwise.

[DiscGolfer]

1  Morris

 

WS MVP flags fly forever

 

if Cruz helps win the WS I'll give it to him

[Richie the Rally Goat]

1 Morris

 

WS MVP flags fly forever

 

if Cruz helps win the WS I'll give it to him

Does that put Chili Davis number 2?

[Linus]

Interesting topic. I would go with Morris because of the World Series. However the Cruz signing is easily the best move Falvine have made. The man is fantastic and a great role model for the younger players

[Brock Beauchamp]

Rondell White is sad right now.

[USAFChief]

 

Rondell White is sad right now.

He was pretty sad when he was signed, too.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But in all seriousness, is Cruz better than Thome? Probably, but it's close.

[MNT1996]

 

But in all seriousness, is Cruz better than Thome? Probably, but it's close.

 

Comparing Cruz's slash line + 33 HRs + 80 RBI (and still a month left to play) to Thome's 2010 numbers...it doesn't really seem close at all in my opinion

[HighHeat]

Phil Hughes 4.5 WAR in his first season with us, when we were pitching starved, was a great signing. Too bad it was wiped from the memory bank of many with the massive contract extension mistake.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Comparing Cruz's slash line + 33 HRs + 80 RBI (and still a month left to play) to Thome's 2010 numbers...it doesn't really seem close at all in my opinion

Home runs and power are going at a discounted rate in 2019.

 

2019 Cruz OPS+: 171

 

2010 Thome OPS+: 182

 

Fangraphs has a similar take:

 

2019 Cruz wRC+: 169

 

2010 Thome wRC+: 177

 

Though Thome had a shortened season in 2010, even more so than Cruz this season so that should count for something.

 

But Thome was an absolute beast that season and another good lesson about how baseball can change over just a few years. Looking at counting stats in 2010 doesn't tell the real story when comparing to counting stats in 2019.

 

The same goes for 1968 versus 1974 or 1982 versus 1989.

 

What matters in baseball is comparative stats and rate stats, how a player does in comparison to his single season peers, not overall in baseball history because baseball history is wildly in flux every few years.

[Shaitan]

Yeah, but Thome could barely move and he never played past the 6th inning either.

 

He was a great role player signing, but he was a role player.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah, but Thome could barely move and he never played past the 6th inning either.

 

He was a great role player signing, but he was a role player.

Thome was... a DH.

 

Cruz is... a DH.

 

edit: OKAY, SERIOUSLY, I CAN'T LET THIS ONE GO.

 

Nelson Cruz has not played a single inning on the field this year.

 

Not. A. Single. Inning.

 

So how on earth do you even make the argument that Thome was somehow compromised but Cruz is not?

ALSO: Jim Thome did not play a single inning on the field in 2010.

[MNT1996]

 

Home runs and power are going at a discounted rate in 2019.

 

2019 Cruz OPS+: 171

 

2010 Thome OPS+: 182

 

Fangraphs has a similar take:

 

2019 Cruz wRC+: 169

 

2010 Thome wRC+: 177

 

Though Thome had a shortened season in 2010, even more so than Cruz this season so that should count for something.

 

But Thome was an absolute beast that season and another good lesson about how baseball can change over just a few years. Looking at counting stats in 2010 doesn't tell the real story when comparing to counting stats in 2019.

 

The same goes for 1968 versus 1974 or 1982 versus 1989.

 

What matters in baseball is comparative stats and rate stats, how a player does in comparison to his single season peers, not overall in baseball history because baseball history is wildly in flux every few years.

 

Fair enough. Can't argue with statistics. If Cruz helps the Twins go far in the playoffs with similar numbers to what he has currently I would say that Cruz is the better signing, but you definitely make a good point that Thome had better numbers. I guess I just have some recency bias. 

[Shaitan]

 

Thome was... a DH.

 

Cruz is... a DH.

 

edit: OKAY, SERIOUSLY, I CAN'T LET THIS ONE GO.

 

Nelson Cruz has not played a single inning on the field this year.

 

Not. A. Single. Inning.

 

So how on earth do you even make the argument that Thome was somehow compromised but Cruz is not?

ALSO: Jim Thome did not play a single inning on the field in 2010.

Because they pinch ran for Thome every single game in the 7th inning and never started him more than 2 games in a row.

 

Cruz, when healthy, may not play the field but he plays 9 innings, isn't a liability on the bases, and (IL record this year noted) isn't brittle.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Because they pinch ran for Thome every single game in the 7th inning and never started him more than 2 games in a row.

 

Cruz, when healthy, may not play the field but he plays 9 innings, isn't a liability on the bases, and (IL record this year noted) isn't brittle.

No, Thome was replaced on a regular basis because the team had Joe-freakin-Mauer in his prime at catcher that season.

 

Who do you choose in that situation to DH, Joe Mauer or Jim Thome?

 

There isn't a wrong answer to that question.

 

But it also doesn't diminish the sheer greatness of Thome in 2010.

 

And if you want to bring up brittle, Thome didn't miss any time in 2010, but Cruz certainly has in 2019.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=thomeji01&t=b&year=2010

[yarnivek1972]

Rondell White is sad right now.

He must be the best. Not only did the Twins sign him. They signed him again the next year.

[Darius]

Cruz has missed some time lately, and he started slow. But, the last month or two seems epic (without looking at any numbers). I recall the stretch recently with multiple 3 HR games in the span of about a week. He nearly had a third 3 HR game in between (and would’ve in many other parks) with two doubles a foot from going over top corner of the wall out in right center of Target Field. I’ve never seen anything like it.

 

Thome was great, but for my money I’ll take Cruz.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Shame on all of you for forgetting that Nick Punto signed as a FA with Minnesota back in 2008.

 

That is the GOAT. End of discussion.

[ewen21]

Shame on all of you for forgetting that Nick Punto signed as a FA with Minnesota back in 2008.

 

That is the GOAT. End of discussion.

Even if this is strictly just a goof it's got me riled up!

 

Anyway, I gotta say Cruz over Thome

 

we are comparing two DHs here. Cruz already has hit 8 more home runs, has driven in 21 more runs and has a much higher batting average.

 

Thome was great and he did damage, but Cruz has done even more damage and has more weeks to do even more damage.

 

I would also give Cruz props for leadership. He's the kind of veteran that you want around young players and we really haven't had that since Thome.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

But in all seriousness, is Cruz better than Thome? Probably, but it's close.

 

Thome was awesome but what Cruz is doing this year has been phenomenal. 

 

 

The sad thing is Twins have had the opportunity to sign Nelson Cruz quite a few times over the years. He and Adrian Beltre were 2 guys I always wanted to Twins to go after, but they just never did. 

 

 

 

[yarnivek1972]

Even if this is strictly just a goof it's got me riled up!

 

Anyway, I gotta say Cruz over Thome

 

we are comparing two DHs here. Cruz already has hit 8 more home runs, has driven in 21 more runs and has a much higher batting average.

Thome was great and he did damage, but Cruz has done even more damage and has more weeks to do even more damage.

 

I would also give Cruz props for leadership. He's the kind of veteran that you want around young players and we really haven't had that since Thome.

 

Context matters.

 

The average AL team with 5 weeks left in the season has 180 HR and 624 runs scored.

 

In 2010, for the ENTIRE season, the average AL team scored 721 runs and hit 155 HR.

 

 

In 2010, 8 AL players had 30 HR. In 2019, there are already 7 and likely a dozen more that will.

[ewen21]

Context matters.

 

The average AL team with 5 weeks left in the season has 180 HR and 624 runs scored.

 

In 2010, for the ENTIRE season, the average AL team scored 721 runs and hit 155 HR.

 

 

In 2010, 8 AL players had 30 HR. In 2019, there are already 7 and likely a dozen more that will.

Then go ahead and prorate the numbers as you see fit. The fact remains Cruz has over 30% more RBI and HRs now than Thome did in all of 2010. He's also got a batting average that is 20 points higher.

 

TO ME Cruz is more impactful to this team than Thome was in 2010. This isn't to discredit Jim. It's just what Cruz is doing now is more exceptional than what Thome did in 2010.

[Vanimal46]

Context matters.

 

The average AL team with 5 weeks left in the season has 180 HR and 624 runs scored.

 

In 2010, for the ENTIRE season, the average AL team scored 721 runs and hit 155 HR.

 

 

In 2010, 8 AL players had 30 HR. In 2019, there are already 7 and likely a dozen more that will.

Thanks Rob Manfred and the juiced baseball! It's no longer possible to compare results today to results 3 years ago.

[FlauerPauer]

 

Rondell White is sad right now.

 

What about Tony Batista, Phil Nevin, Tsyoshi Nishioka? 

[mlhouse]

I thought signing Cruz was a mistake given the rebuilding nature of this team.  But, no one predicted that this team would be in contention.  Their front office didn't (if they predicted this team would be a contender, Ryan Pressley would be a Twin).   

 

Who would have predicted the offense from this team.  Look at last year.   Of the players with at least 100 plate appearances:

 

Above .850:   Escobar  .852   (Traded)

Above .800:   Rosario  .803

Above .750:   Polanco   Cave   Grossman

Above .700:   Garver Mauer  Dozier (Traded)  Kepler

 

Now, compare this to 2019:

 

Above 1.000:   Cruz

Above .900:     Garver

Above .850:     Polonco  Sano   Kepler   Arraez

Above .800:     Rosario   Buxton   Adrianza

Above .750:     Cron   Shoop   Gonzales   Castro

 

This is a massive rightward shift on power and OBP.  There are a couple of new names, but most of the names are the same.  That this is a random issue, every player on the team having career years, is very improbable.  

 

 

[spanman2]

 

Shame on all of you for forgetting that Nick Punto signed as a FA with Minnesota back in 2008.

 

That is the GOAT. End of discussion.

IALTO

[Mr. Brooks]

Thanks Rob Manfred and the juiced baseball! It's no longer possible to compare results today to results 3 years ago.

Sure it is. Just compare to league average.

 

Your approach would be to still be using the same equipment they did in 1902?

[Only Here in Negative]

 

Fair enough. Can't argue with statistics.

 

That doesn't stop most people.

[jimbo92107]

 

1  Morris

 

WS MVP flags fly forever

 

if Cruz helps win the WS I'll give it to him

Hard to beat pitching a 10 inning shutout in the World Series. But Cruz is getting mighty close.

[USAFChief]

I thought signing Cruz was a mistake given the rebuilding nature of this team. But, no one predicted that this team would be in contention. Their front office didn't (if they predicted this team would be a contender, Ryan Pressley would be a Twin).

 

Who would have predicted the offense from this team. Look at last year. Of the players with at least 100 plate appearances:

 

Above .850: Escobar .852 (Traded)

Above .800: Rosario .803

Above .750: Polanco Cave Grossman

Above .700: Garver Mauer Dozier (Traded) Kepler

 

Now, compare this to 2019:

 

Above 1.000: Cruz

Above .900: Garver

Above .850: Polonco Sano Kepler Arraez

Above .800: Rosario Buxton Adrianza

Above .750: Cron Shoop Gonzales Castro

 

This is a massive rightward shift on power and OBP. There are a couple of new names, but most of the names are the same. That this is a random issue, every player on the team having career years, is very improbable.

lots of people predicted this team would be in contention.

 

But even if not, what was the potential mistake of adding Cruz?