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Only Here in Negative

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Everything posted by Only Here in Negative

  1. I was in Vegas this time last year and my plan was to put $50 on the Twins to win the World Series this year but then got lazy and it was a whole fifteen minute walk to the sports bettor so I stayed poolside instead. #regrets, I think the odds were like 30 to 1 or something. Full disclosure, I was going to put $50 on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl too. I am not a sage.
  2. Will people be upset if the 25th spot goes to Gibson? I don't think its the best use of the roster but perhaps there are other team morale/loyalty reasons that Rocco and co. would bring him along? I think I would be fearful but not upset at the decision.
  3. 13 pitchers. Littel is a lock. Carry Stashak, Thorpe, and Graterol. 12 position players means the starting 9 plus Castro, Cave, and Schoop. I'm basing this on Adrianza not being back and in game shape for the ALDS. All reports show he's not close to coming back and obliques are tough. I'd rather carry that 13th pitcher than Astudillo or a pinch runner who can steal. It just seems like the Twins may need it given the issues with starting pitching.
  4. Dyson going down makes me more into Graterol because the options for that last pitching spot go down. Assuming they don't take Gibson, he's competing with guys like Stewart, Romero, Hildenberg, and Harper. Graterol has some warts but he's better than those guys. I will still be terrified when he comes into the 13th inning of a 23-23 Game 2 against the Yankees.
  5. That seems endemic to boards. Unless we institute a "sum up your back and forth" (which would get tough on some of these), its likely better for people to either read back for context or maybe not come in so hot when responding to something mid stream. It seems odd that it would happen in an analytical age when we question everything though. The Twins have remade their entire MiLB pitching program and have top executives who are focused on it. Feels like there must be something to it. That's why I think its likely a "jumping off point" kind of thing, where teams start from an innings pitched thing but take into consideration things like the build of the player, their motion, velocity dips, spin rates etc. It also makes sense that wouldn't be public knowledge since it would give up a competitive advantage.
  6. Yeah. It was in response to someone who was honestly asking why innings pitched would matter. All I was saying was that this is a relatively standard practice for analytically minded teams so there must be something definitive that impacts this. I agree with you that there's not a lot of independent reviews that prove that but there also aren't a lot of independent reviews that disprove it either (the ones you see tend to be either small samples or not have access to a lot of close information). That's likely because teams study it internally since they're the ones with the incentive to do so. In my opinion, innings pitched is too facile to be relied upon. I think teams are probably including it is as a factor but not a sole factor. For instance, the Twins this year seem to be using the pitches per inning thing more in the minors, which makes some sense. I also think it probably depends on the arm - a guy who relies on finesse and not power might get a longer leash. Unfortunately, that doesn't help Graterol much. His arm motion is relatively violent from what I've read and he throws so hard that I think some caution is a good idea. A lot will depend what the Twins do this offseason but I'd be fine with him in some sort of a hybrid role next year before being a full-time starter in 2021.
  7. Are we really defending Polanco's PED use? I thought it was a bit of an unnecessary low blow and imagine that it might make the MLB locker room uncomfortable for Clevinger (you seem like you're supporting management with that somehow), but as a fan, not sure it's my place to defend a PED guy to the end. I cheer for him as a Twin and he earns back trust over time but I'm sure each of us has had the same thought as Polanco broke out this year. I'm relatively indifferent to who makes the Wild Card. Cleveland seems the weakest of the three contenders so I guess I'd rather see one of the others who might actually beat the Astros?
  8. I never said that I believe this is key, just that most MLB teams do. The Twins have repeatedly referenced this during the development of pitchers, shutting guys down when they get close to big innings jumps (Romero last year if I recall?). That makes me think that they have some sort of evidence of this, whether its a study or something internal (teams guard stuff like this pretty tightly). I'd be surprised if they were willing to throw Graterol for 30+ MLB starts next year as it would be not in tune with how they've handled it in the past. That could mean aggressively skipping him, using six starters/bullpen games regularly with the 26 man roster, or starting him out as a reliever.
  9. I think we err in putting Perez in the same bucket as Gibby. Gibby is sick/injured and looks terrible. Perez is just erratic. His last 7 starts include four in which he went five innings and gave up two earned runs or less - and that includes good offenses like Milwaukee and Boston. The other three include a start of 4.2 with 3 ER and two where he got shellacked (though one of those his defense did him no favors). He sometimes is terrible but if you have a quick hook, Perez is a guy I don't mind handing the ball to. He seems as likely to have a solid short start as Smeltzer or Thorpe. They just can't treat him like Odorizzi or Berrios and give him a long leash. Edit: Of course, Perez is getting lit up as I wrote that
  10. Dobnak should start Game 1, not Game 2. If you're going to stretch the pen in a Dobnak game, you want Berrios after as he's most likely to give you 7 or 8. That's a break before Odo/Perez, who strain pens in general. And Berrios would still line up to pitch Game 5 on normal rest.
  11. I'm not going crazy looking but these from the first page of a Google search allude to it: https://www.nfhs.org/articles/reducing-pitching-injuries-count-pitches-don-t-count-on-surgery/ https://www.dukehealth.org/blog/prevent-overuse-injuries-baseball-pitchers https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21098816 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29861301 (against the correlation here!) I also think that the fact that all that most of the analytically minded teams concentrate on this is pretty strong evidence that they believe this theory (and I'll emphasize that I've been clear this is not proven, just influential). It does seem to be something that will develop over time and be more nuanced, which seems to be the issue with blanket concepts like innings limits.
  12. There have been numerous studies that show that when guys make drastic jumps in the number of innings pitched, they strain their arms and get injured. Those are by no means definitive and there are people who disagree (or agree but disagree with approaches to dealing with this) but there is validity. One of the issues for Brusdar starting next year is that his injury this year and time in the pen mean that he isn't likely to ramp up his innings much this year. It might not be a good idea to throw him out as a 180 innings starter next year. You may see the Twins start him in the pen and then stretch him out as they need someone as the year goes along. 130 innings may be solid and then they can work him up to a full-time starter. Kyle Gibson has had numerous better performances this year. Eight innings of two hit ball against these Royals Jun 14th springs to mind. That doesn't take away from Drobnak but we should not forget what a healthy Kyle Gibson can do. We also shouldn't forget that Drobnak is young and came out of nowhere. There's not much of a scouting book on him and teams will adjust as one starts to develop. Drobnak may still be great when that happens. Or he may become more of a 5th to 7th starter or a bullpen piece. Kyle Gibson's contract is going to be fascinating. A team could talk themselves into illness as the context for his struggles this year. That said, he is going to be 32 and his success has been fleeting. He could be a great value pickup or money flushed down the toilet. I wouldn't mind the Twins taking a shot if the years and money is right but won't be sad if someone gives him 3 years and it isn't the Twins.
  13. I'm always leery when someone uses an extraordinary example as the standard everyone should meet. Pete Rose was an extraordinarily competitive human being, an outlier out on the edges with Ty Cobb. He competed insanely and hustled relentlessly because he was driven to do so. He's not really reflective of all players. This is the guy who broke a catcher's arm in the All Star Game and never felt bad about it. The competitiveness made a good player great but it also alienated teammates and opponents and led pretty directly to his ban from baseball. I'm not saying he's not great, just that he's not a great reference since he's so far out there. It'd be like saying more baseball players should be like Ricky Henderson. Sure they should. But they can't, that's why he's Ricky. Its easy to say that these guys should go all out every play but that's more of an ideal than a reality. Guys would get hurt busting tail down the line on every groundball. They'd hurt opponents barreling into second base at full speed. There's somewhere between Puig and Pete Rose that's ideal. Eddie Rosario wasn't it that play but saying "Every player should play all out because we pay them to do so" is a pretty Draconian way of viewing it and isn't particularly realistic. P.S. I'm wary whenever anyone uses the phrase "off the backs of the hardworking folks". There's an amount of hyperbole there that's a bit much.
  14. Why is dragging injury into this off base? Eddie Rosario has dealt with nagging leg injuries all year. I think its worth thinking about that in contemplating why he might be gauging how hard he needs to run on a ball to the wall. I also think its entirely relevant when we explain why every player doesn't Pete Rose it every play. It isn't just laziness or lack of hustle - there are real injury concerns that come into play. You're going to tweak a hammy a certain percentage of times you run all out. If you can keep the number of times you sprint down, you'll be healthier. It's not different than telling a pitcher they don't need to throw it as hard as they can each pitch or strikeout each batter. Finding ways to succeed without doing that is the name of the game.
  15. Buxton is also constantly on the DL. I love watching Buxton going all out but I imagine that many of the people dogging Rosario for not going all out all the time are also the ones asking Buxton to take it easy. Also untrue that Buxton goes all out all the time. On clear doubles he too slows coming around first base and jogs into second. There just are less clear doubles for him :-)
  16. To the all-out runner crowd: Yes, we were all told to run all out in Little League. We were kids, they’re trying to teach you to hustle. But not all lessons from Little League are applicable to the majors, no matter how much we want to extrapolate from our own meager experience. MLB players don’t tend to run all out on the bases all the time. It’s just not reasonable. They play 150 games a year, often with weeks between off days. They play in all kinds of weather and all kinds of field conditions. They’re nursing injuries and getting medical treatment constantly. So they pick their spots. They don’t spring to first on a ground ball to 2B in the 4th inning of a 5 – 3 game. They run hard but not all out. If they did that, they’d be more likely to get injured and miss time. They save it for moments where they think it will matter. Eddie Rosario has dealt with lingering leg injuries all year. The games in question are not particularly important from a game theory perspective – the Twins are overwhelming favorites to win their division. And yet we’re talking about benching him without knowing anything about his health? Guys like Cruz and Sano fairly regularly run out ground balls at ½ to ¾ speed and don’t get much of a peep. I’ve seen Polanco and Kepler do the same. There’s just something about Eddie that is a lightning rod for hustle criticism and I’m not sure why. Maybe it’s because he makes some incredible hustle plays and gets people’s expectations up in a way other guys don’t? It’s very strange. Keep playing Eddie. A hot Eddie Rosario is the batter I most want to see down 4-2 in the 8th with two guys on and a tough reliever coming in.
  17. Two weeks ago Eddie saved the Twins against the Red Sox with an insane throw to the plate. Eddie Rosario has been one of the Twins hottest hitters, with three straight multi-hit games and a 1.007 OPS in the past ten games. The Twins have been giving outfield at-bats to guys like Ryan Lamarre, Arraez, Wade, and Miller over the past two weeks. Yeah, the Twins should definitely bench Eddie Rosario.
  18. These are the 22 givens 1. Berrios 2. Odorizzi 3. Perez 4. Rogers 5. Romo 6. Duffey 7. May 8. Littel 9. Smeltzer 10. Thorpe 11. Dobnak 1. Sano 2. Polanco 3. Arraez 4. Schoop 5. Cron 6. Garver 7. Castro 8. Cruz 9. Kepler 10. Rosario 11. Gonzalez So you're down to three spots and you're choosing between position players Cave, Astudillo, Wade, Miller, LaMarre, and Torreyes or pitchers Stewart, Hildy, Harper, Romero, Alcala, and Graterol. * We can cross out Hildy and Harper, they've been lapped in the pen. * Cave is the obvious first choice since they need a 4th OF who played it in the minors. * If you take two more position players you'd go Astudillo or Wade? * I have to think the pitchers who are possibilities , ranked in order, would be Graterol and Romero * Gibson is the wild card. I find it hard to think the Twins won't keep him on the roster if healthy, even as a long reliever in an extra inning game. There's a human factor to this. So I guess I'd bet on Cave, Graterol, and Gibson. If they shut Gibson down, I'd add Wade. But could be very wrong.
  19. It actually also might impact when you throw your bullpen game. There's some sense to doing the bullpen game first and then using the Berrios start in Game 2 to hopefully rest the pen before getting into the Odorizzi and Perez games. That also lines up Berrios for Game 5 on normal rest. Otherwise you may tax the pen to throw three straight games (though there is a day off between 2 and 3). It also perhaps accurately reflects the general feeling that the Twins pen is a stronger game than Perez starting.
  20. This does assume health for Cron and Kepler. Both seem pretty reasonable expectations given the amount of rest they can get. And yes, I think Marwin in RF is the way to go.
  21. Given the likelihood that the Twins pen is covering the last four innings of an Odorizzi start, the last five of a Perez start, and then potentially a whole game since Gibby looks sick/lost, I'm hoping the Twins carry as many pitchers as possible. They'll need the starting 9 plus Schoop and Castro. Cave is a 4th OF because you don't want Arraez out there. But then, I want 13 pitchers. Yeah Wade and Miller are nice weapons but the Twins may need all the arms they can get, especially if any game goes to extras.
  22. Well this seems hyperbolic . If you can walk to 3rd, you should. You score on a wild pitch or an infield single or a balk. Or a solid single right to an outfielder. You get a runner in a right handed pitcher's vision. You prevent an infield from shifting as strongly on a lefty. This is just me, but it sure seems like a triple fires up a team in a way a double doesn't. There's just something magic about a triple. There's a million good things about being on 3rd instead of 2nd. The "never make the last out at 3rd" is a great axiom for Little League, where most of us learn it. Most kids don't have the judgment to make good calls there and any hit to the OF is probably a run with two outs since the odd of a throw going home and a tag being applied are low. The rule still definitely applies to MLB but it should be relaxed a bit. There are definitely situations where it makes sense to make a reasonable gamble and get to 3rd. We should loosen up a bit on it.
  23. 2. Don't make claims and then say you're not going to bother to go back and total it up. At that point, you're not adding anything definitive. I went back. The Twins pitchers' WHIP on the year is 1.31. The WHIP since Detroit? 1.31. The WHIP since the first Cleveland series? 1.33. The WHIP since the last Cleveland series? 1.30. Your feeling of the game is not backed up in numbers and is an apt testament to the severe limitations of the eye test. Oh and the average MLB WHIP is 1.337. The Twins are 11th in WHIP. The pitching is not as dire as you make it seem. 1. You aptly name that a horror story. Horror stories are scary but they don't really come true. If I told you that one time a kid got killed in a park so my kids don't ever go to parks, you'd think I was insane. Similarly, trotting out one example doesn't suggest a pattern and shouldn't dictate behavior. (And that doesn't even take into consideration that Detroit didn't rest their guys when they stumbled, which perhaps indicates that they should have rested their players down the stretch.) The majority of teams who are up big rest players, particularly those who are banged up. The majority make the playoffs and do fine. Numerous articles have shown that there's no correlation between going on a huge winning streak into the playoffs or backing your way in. Its the team you have that determines that. A healthy Twins lineup is going to be key to advancing. If that means Ryan Lamarre plays five times a week, so be it. This Twins team is not going to collapse and the Clevelanders are not going to get to play Detroit every game. Lean on the depth, its what got us here. They're not sitting guys any more than they have been all year, why mess with what has worked?
  24. I could be wrong on this but I thought the CF was remarkably shallow on that. It was a great play, don't get me wrong, but most of the time the CF takes a deeper route back to the wall on that - usually when a RF falls the CF is chasing the ball towards the infield from the fence area. Guys take routes that get them to where the play is.The White Sox CF played it off the wall like it was his ball at Fenway off the Monster. It was a great play but it was atypical of how MLB outfielders handle that play. And yes, Rosario is always backing guys up. I've never heard even the biggest Rosario haters say that he doesn't back up teammates. And Rosario also habitually makes baserunning plays and throws that other guys wouldn't. With the good comes the bad.
  25. I was more saying that it wasn't the 2-3 second pause that people were indicating. Announcers are hyperbolic because that's their job. He wasn't moving as fast as he could and should regret that but he wasn't standing at home plate admiring it. He was moving down the line. Not a great play but not anything unusual in today's game. Interesting about checking in on the 3B coach. Its kind of in that weird in between area where he can get an eye on it but not see everything. I wonder what the 3B coach was saying, none of the angles show it.
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