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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The narrative from a few on Kepler in CF has created its own reality on TD. Rocco once talked about how they preferred him in RF because he is so good in that spot. He may be a better CF than Gordon for example but this isn’t an individual game. It is a team game and the overall outfield play is what matters. While Kepler may have been somewhat better than Gordon in CF he is much better in RF. The same can probably be said about Gallo or Celestino and maybe Castro. If they get to the point where the only options are Larnach, Kirilloff and Kepler then it might be the best combo to play Kepler in CF.
  2. jorgenswest
    Did you see the game? Pop ups? Weak grounders? edit: I should have read to the bottom. I read it as you saw the at bats.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins should use those lower leverage roles on relievers like those mentioned in this article. It is waste to have Pagán in that role. He isn’t a reliable high leverage option. He hasn’t been for years. Pitching well in low leverage doesn’t matter if you can’t occasionally pitch well when it really matters. Give that role to anyone with upside that can move up into a permanent role in the pen. I hope they move on from Pagán and see if they have a in house option for those innings before they give up prospects in trade. I have hope that Brock Stewart is more than a temporary back end role. Same hope for De León. Henriquez might be able to help. The AAA data for a reliever at this point is worthless. I can’t advocate for any based on their AAA data. I can advocate for the Twins moving on from Pagán. Maeda is near pitching from the mound again. Does he return in a bullpen role? Maybe he takes Pagán’s spot.
  4. jorgenswest
    They are both below average. Likely 15-20% below average. The stats do not support Jeffers being a better hitter than Vazquez moving forward this year. Vazquez is the superior defender. If the Twins are up against a quality starter I wouldn't give either a good chance to have an impact. They will need that superior game caller to keep that game close. It may be how the Twins are finding games for Jeffers. They get him in against a lefty or they give him the game against the poorer pitcher in day game after night game situations. Vazquez' stats are very skewed by the quality of opposing pitcher and the small ratio of plate appearances against lefties for which his OPS was 148 points greater last year. I am not here to defend Vazquez as a hitter though. I am here to argue that Jeffers' slash stats thus far do not support him being a better hitter going forward this season. If the Twins are interested in winning more this year it is not yet time for more Ryan Jeffers.
  5. jorgenswest
    I have to echo this here also. I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward. Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.
  6. jorgenswest
    I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward. Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. They both perform better against left handed pitching over their careers but Vazquez has seen very little left handed pitching this year. I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.
  7. jorgenswest
    Way too early to believe slash stats have meaning for the future. I don’t believe they will be sacrificing very much offense by going forward with Vazquez.
  8. jorgenswest
    Fans of several other teams might be wondering the same thing. The average OPS in the IL is nearly 800. Teams are scoring 5-6 runs per game. The average pitcher ERA is 5. The run scoring context is very different.
  9. jorgenswest
    Do you think it might be wise to get him at least 100 plate appearances in this reset before being worried about room? Slash stats will still be meaningless at that sample (100 PAs) but they can look at strike out rate. They will also assessing how he is handling AAA breaking balls. Entering this year Larnach has limited experience at AAA and he has not performed well there. He needs to dominate there over an extended weird of time.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins lost on this trade. I would take the same risk this July. My guess it might take something like 5 and then 15 in a two year contract to Mahle. I don’t think I would do that deal but it isn’t a clear “no” to me.
  11. jorgenswest
    Farmer isn’t a solution as an everyday player. Castro isn’t a solution as the left handed half of the platoon as he has better career numbers as a right handed batter. The only solution is Miranda. Maybe a trip to AAA can help him reset. I would stick with him here though and let him work it out at this level.
  12. jorgenswest
    I am not sure if any of these are close to stabilizing, strikeout rate would stabilize earliest and possibly meaningful. The batted ball data from statcast stabilizes with fewer plate appearances. Gordon’s xBA and xSLG are 255 and 405 based on the number and quality of balls put in play this year.
  13. jorgenswest
    Are we watching the same player? He is among the team leaders is hard hit rate and barrels rate. He is a very good defender. His walks are down but even with the poor walk rate his OPS is better than Larnach’s. I don’t know what is coming in May but up until today he appears to be one of the more valuable Twins and I am encouraged by the increases in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity.
  14. jorgenswest
    They don’t need a middle reliever. They need another effective reliever and probably two. Four reliable relievers isn’t enough. Someone needs to join that group.
  15. jorgenswest
    Without off days and entering the Yankee series I don’t think they can afford to push back Maeda’s start. They should IL him and go with Ober until Maeda can come back. They will need that additional arm from St. Paul.
  16. jorgenswest
    Maeda should go to IL and then a rehab assignment. Give Ober or Varland the opportunity to get a spot in the rotation and not give it back. Though this wasn’t related to Maeda’s arm it is an opportunity to give him some more time with the arm also. A healthy Maeda will be an asset to this staff. The myth that somehow they can hide Pagán in a low leverage role was busted today if there was really anyone who believed that role exists. I do believe there is value in a 13th spot flex role with Sands and now Headrick. That role is an opportunity there to impress and move up the ladder as Jax did last year. Someone needs to step up in that role and claim Pagán’s spot.
  17. jorgenswest
    Any trade of a reliever for a starting pitcher that finishes 2nd in the Cy Young voting for you is a win. Who would say no to that trade?
  18. jorgenswest
    Julien’s arm action will cost some outs. They will miss out on some double plays and close plays at first base. I am not sure it gets much better in AAA though repetition and foot work in the position can help. That kind of work would be easier to do in AAA. If he can show his bat will make up for those lost outs he needs to stay. He has a window to show his bat belongs at the top of a major league line up. It is up to him. It seems a real stretch to think that Brooks Lee was least aggressive. He is 22 with virtually no time at AA. How many drafted last year are above his level? If that is the best you found then the Twins were very aggressive in their promotions this year.
  19. jorgenswest
    Depth is important. If at some point everyone is healthy a few major league ready players with be in AAA on options. It won’t be long before they are needed. Last year the ink wasn’t dry on Miranda’s option to AAA before Lewis was injured and Miranda was back with the Twins.
  20. jorgenswest
    It happened multiple times last year. He faced the number 3 hitter a third time in most starts and some he gave up more than 4 runs. There was a Yankee game he only made it 19 batters but he had thrown 90 pitches. His first start of the season after the shortened spring was 19 batters and lower pitch count. The same for his first start following his absence for COVID. there was an Angel game in his second to last start where he threw only 69 pitches in 4 innings of three run ball. That might be your best example but at this point the Twins were out of contention and had a bigger pen. This persistent narrative about Baldelli and third time through isn’t supported by his use of Ryan last year. It isn’t supported by Gray either when you look at his shorts starts clustered around his three IL trips and the start of the season. You could argue that he should have had more confidence in Smeltzer, Archer and Bundy.
  21. jorgenswest
    Is there a team that doesn’t use the 13th spot to rotate pitchers through? The need for a long reliever is so unpredictable that teams no longer carry a long reliever but instead use AAA. It makes sense. A long reliever isn’t getting regular work and once used isn’t available the next few days. Cole Sands makes it 6 candidates and the first to have the opportunity of the 13th pitcher to move off the shuttle. Jax took that opportunity last year and earned a key role in the pen. Which of these 6 do you think will take advantage of the opportunity and earn a regular role in this year’s pen?
  22. jorgenswest
    I agree and would add when healthy. His first start was due to the short spring. He left injured in his second start. Once he returned starts 3 and 4 were short as he built up. Starts 5-7 went at least 6. Trip 2 to IL. Two starts to build up and then a 7 inning start. They were more cautious after the second trip to IL and we’re pulling him around 80 pitches eventually building to 90. If he pitched well he was getting through 6 in 90. They may have been overly cautious in the build up but he wasn’t pulled due to analytics. Two trips to the IL was the larger factor. In September he won two consecutive starts while facing 25 batters in each only to be followed by trip 3 to the IL in the next start.
  23. jorgenswest
    If there is a difference it won’t be a change in philosophy. It will be a change in conditions. Consider the top 5 pitchers in starts from last year. Bundy, Archer and Smeltzer are gone. Sonny Gray was on the IL three times. They had one healthy mid rotation pitcher last year in Joe Ryan. He typically saw the top of line up a third time through. The other two (Ober and Winder) with double digits starts came with a history of injuries and limited innings in a season. Baldelli will let good healthy pitchers see the line up a third time through and go deeper. How often did he have that opportunity last year? Hopefully that opportunity occurs a lot more this year.
  24. jorgenswest
    My guess is most teams trading for a good starting pitch at the deadline lose value in the long run. Castillo, Montas and Mahle were the top starters moved at the deadline. They all might be losses in the long run. The Twins didn’t have to give up their best prospects or prospects at key positions to get Mahle. Steer and Encarnacion are corner players with promising bats and marginal fielding value. Should they have a need for that type of player in the long run they will be able to find them. I would make the same type of trade for starting pitching whenever they have a need and are buyers at the deadline.
  25. jorgenswest
    Very different roles. Sands has an option. He can eat innings and then be optioned out. The Marlins needed that pitcher yesterday after the early injury. Coulombe would have to be DFA’d and probably couldn’t give them 60+ pitches. The Twins have several players that could fit that role. Winder and Henriquez are injured. Ober, Varland and Woods-Richardson are staying getting regular work as starters. It can be argued that one if those three would have been a better choice but I think getting a regular turn in the AAA rotation is better. We should see Winder for Sands in the pen soon. The wrong move may have been Pagán over Coulombe but I think Sands is the best fit for his current role.
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