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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If I tried anything for a few weeks it would to try to reduce strike outs and start more often the hitters that tend to put the ball in play. I would also be more aggressive on the bases in front of batters like Correa that tend to hit into double plays. Balls in play and running can energize a bench. Without the support of a study, I wonder if the volume of those strike outs are giving a boost to the pitcher and have a negative impact taking away some energy from the rest of the offense. There is no chance of stringing together a few bloop hits with all of those strike outs. In the baseball environment of the 90s there was almost no correlation between runs scored and strike outs. Is that still true in the 2023 environment. I might be worth the time to take a look. In a put the ball in play plan Miranda and Celestino might be the additions. I have been biased for quite a while by OPS driven up by power and walks. I wonder if baseball is shifting and I haven’t noticed. edit: A graph of team strikeouts per 100 games and runs per 100 games. The line looks similar as the 90s. If there is a relationship it may be quadratic. The teams that score the most runs happen to be more in the middle of the strike out list. They must have a balance between contact and power in their line up. If that is true in the new environment of 2023, how can the Twins achieve that balance?
  2. jorgenswest
    Your main stat OPS+ is based on slash stats and they need a very large sample to stabilize. Would it be wise to devise a lineup for the rest of the season based on the first (almost) half of the season?
  3. jorgenswest
    So many factors go into a pitchers path to the majors. Did they get drafted from college, high school or the international draft? Did they lose a season or even more to Tommy John or other serious injury? did they lose a season in the minors to COVID. Did it take them longer to find that second or third pitch or establish command? In Varland’s case, he went college and his first full age 22 season was lost to COVID. That puts him at 23 in his first professional season. I think it is pretty impressive and a credit to his hard work that he made his major league debut at 24. He has work to do and I think he will continue to do that hard work.
  4. jorgenswest
    My criteria for an established pipeline. 1) They no longer are filling the back end of the rotation with off season signings like Bailey, Bundy and Archer. 2) They no longer need to trade valuable resources like Arraez to fill out the rotation. They are getting closer but not there yet.
  5. jorgenswest
    Thoughtful work. Thank you. I appreciate the space for conversation here and hope that the Buxton conversation can happen here rather than nearly every post. I don’t think I fit in any of the categories. I certainly not happy to see him at DH only. I can’t imagine anyone would be happy including the Twins staff. I honestly don’t need more details on the medicals from the team. I appreciate that they are careful to protect the privacy of the player. I trust that if Buxton could play in the field he would be. I don’t need to know more.
  6. jorgenswest
    I am with you. I need to see four series wins in a row before I am a buyer. Atlanta would be a big step in that direction.
  7. jorgenswest
    Great job by the bullpen! Nice series win. It is time for the Twins to start showing they are buyers by winning the Braves series.
  8. jorgenswest
    I find the endless debate about Buxton the same as the endless debate about Mauer. Tiresome and unending. In both cases I trust that the Twins management is going by the advice and recommendations of their medical professionals. I am OK with not knowing the details and appreciate any privacy about health issues they protect. In both cases aI also trusted that the entire staff would prefer Buxton to be in CF and Mauer at catcher. I also don’t believe these decisions were the responsibility of the on field staff. I likely am in the minority but in order to avoid this (to me) tiresome and endless debate I will need to do the same as I did in Mauer’s time and put those who can’t let this go on the ignore list. I would suggest they do the same for me.
  9. jorgenswest
    Do you think the Twins medical staff incorrect in assessing that Buxton should not be playing in the field?
  10. jorgenswest
    Seems like some moves coming based on watching game but not yet hearing any reports. De Leon must be headed to IL. They will need an arm to come back. Did Ortega leave yet? Is Buxton headed to IL? That would be u fortunate timing with his recent bat. Wallner or Larnach? Julien seems so far from playing a passable 2B. I even question whether his throwing action is even fixable. He must have had it in college where they also moved him around looking for a home. Does he need to go to AAA and find another position? You just can’t miss on double plays. Those misses cause long innings and the need to go to the bullpen sooner. His double rate in the minors was so poor and I question whether it can ever improve to a passable level.
  11. jorgenswest
    Maeda and Vazquez took advantage of the umpire’s strike zone really early on, Maeda only needed to throw 38 of 83 pitches in the strike zone to get to his 53 strikes.
  12. jorgenswest
    They just split a 4 game series at home against the last place team in the AL East. This isn’t close enough to a World Series contender yet. It would be nice to see them win 4 series in a row. That is what they would need to do in the playoffs against the best teams. The best they have done is two series in a row this year. The playoffs are not a crapshoot. Some write that they just need to go 13-9. It should be added that they have to go 13-9 while winning 4 series in a row. Start out 1-2 or 4-4 and they are done. They don’t get the opportunity to get to the 13-9. They should hold for now neither selling or buying. If they can win 4 series in a row by July 30 go ahead and go for it. Be a buyer. Otherwise I think they should sell off their expiring contracts. Winning the central is not enough to sell the future. For now, if they were to move on from Kepler, Gallo or Pagán I would not consider that selling.
  13. jorgenswest
    The ace of the staff.
  14. jorgenswest
    Big hits from Farmer, Kepler, Vazquez and Buxton. Shut down inning from Moran. Let’s do it again tomorrow.
  15. jorgenswest
    I don’t think it is wise to believe that his next two months will be as dependable as his previous two months. The sample is too small. Solano in a role starting against left handed pitching and ready on the bench against a right handed starting pitcher will play to his strengths. That might require Lewis to play 2B against a lefty.
  16. jorgenswest
    Sometime later this year I expect the same article about Kirilloff. Young players are going to struggle and go through some rough stretches. I would let both Lewis and Miranda work it out here. There is space for both with Kirilloff in RF. They don’t need to play everyday to develop. (Note: veteran’s go through rough stretches also but there are other discussions to address those concerns).
  17. jorgenswest
    I have appreciated Solano since watching him break out as a 31 year old with the Giants. He reminded me of Manny Mota then and it still fits. At 35 he should be a short side platoon player and a valuable bat on the bench. He is a batter I would want up in the late innings and runners in scoring position.
  18. jorgenswest
    It matters how you get to those 70s. Did you get there is 4 innings or is 5 or 6 innings? Did you get there by having a 27 and 35 pitch inning? I think if you look to that detail you might see that Gray is treated differently because he arrived at those pitch count numbers differently. This is on Gray. Throw strikes to the Detroit hitters in the bottom half of the line up instead of putting up inning pitch counts of 27 and 35 by walking four of them and you will stay in the game. Against a team like Detroit we need him pitching 7 innings instead coming out after 4 and questioning whether he should get a 5th inning. He can’t get to 7 without throwing strikes.
  19. jorgenswest
    Winder is the current long man. The problem with a long man like Winder is once they go long they aren’t available for a few days. I guess they could have sent him down and flipped him with Headrick. Headrick is the best option as the next starter ready right now. It is good to keep him stretched out as the “6th starter” in AAA. I wouldn’t be surprised if he fills the Twins TBA starter slot Saturday. That start could also be given to Winder.
  20. jorgenswest
    If there is a need at catcher the Twins should call up Wolters because he is more ready to help the team win with both the bat and the glove. The Twins are fortunate to have the veteran off the 40 and in AAA as the third catcher.
  21. jorgenswest
    Are there instances of the other starters with a mid game 30+ pitch inning where they went back out at around 80 pitches? I think Gray has a few of these recently. I suppose Gray’s three trips to the IL last year might also be a factor in the decision. Easy solution. Gray needs to be better.
  22. jorgenswest
    Kirilloff and Solano have pretty similar stat profiles in 2023. They both have good OBP but less SLG and ISO than you might expect from a corner player. Both have relatively low launch angles and exit velocities though Kirilloff’s are a couple of percent below Solano. Both have high BABIPs. Are they perceived as similarly?
  23. jorgenswest
    It seems wise to pull a pitcher after a 35 pitch fourth inning. It is a long season and starting pitching depth is thin with Mahle out on Maeda a question mark. Yo pitches even,y split after 4 innings isn’t as stressful as when the 4th of those innings is 35. The solution is an easy one. Gray needs to pitch better and he needs to be dominant against the teams with losing records. This is on Gray.
  24. jorgenswest
    The Giants game gets referenced frequently. Isn’t it the case that virtually all of the offense in that game came from those bench moves? I think the three were on base 6 of 8 plate appearances and accounted for the only run. Somehow that has been forgotten over time. Kepler also got on base when he pinch hit for Lewis. That would make it 7 for 9 in those two games. Is the argument that it is the process and results are irrelevant? Should Kirilloff start against left handed pitching? If he gives the Twins a better chance to win then yes. I would qualify that yes if the medical staff recommends giving him some time off for his wrist. In that case I would maximize the plate appearances against right handed pitching.
  25. jorgenswest
    This line up needs Julien’s bat and strike zone awareness. I wonder if first base is the spot. I think Kirilloff can play RF adequately. There will be openings on the corners in 2024 and hopefully sooner.
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