Trov

Interesting that when our biggest strike out guys started sitting, for various reasons, our offense started to do better. Wonder if there is a connection on strike out rates and offense? I know the league has gone away from caring about strike outs for hitters, but I strongly believe, in most cases, they are the worst way to get out and it is not equal. Guys that are all or nothing swingers will miss chances to drive in runs on singles.

I get the logic in this, and if the home road splits were not so far with Maeda and Ryan I normally would not care. Ober for example has little difference to care where he pitches, but with the other two they are very different. As I said, without looking deeper to explain why, it is something to look into for the decision makers. It could be when the majority of the bad split was, for example was most of the bad starts for Ryan when he was hurt on the road, which would explain something, but a quick review does not look that is case, as he only had 3 road games versus 4 home games during that stretch too. Point is, for a team that uses so much data, they better be looking at that and figuring out is there an advantage to pitching Ryan at home versus the road, and Maeda on road versus home?

Rocco has said no plan for game 3, if needed has been made. Really, we need to win game 1 to worry much about a game 3, because if we lose game 1, then game 2 is all hands on deck, do whatever you need to do to get to game 3. So if we lose game 1, then do not be surprised if we see Gray go 4 or 5 innings, he is terrible round 3 through order generally, and we run out Maeda or Ryan as a piggy back depending on score. If we win game 1, we have a little more room for error in game 2 and will need to plan to be ready for game 3 and do not want to burn out pen for game 3 in a lost cause of a game, if that is the situation. You should never concede a playoff game, like you can in regular season, but at same time you need to be ready for do or die games too.

This is a crazy last week for the West. 3 teams playing for 2 spots and 1 of those being a bye most likely.

If we do not win at least 1 of the first 2 games, the starting pitching depth will mean nothing. As pointed out, we will be facing most likely a strong duo as well, against guys that could match our top 2 pitch for pitch. It is unlikely we will face Toronto, so one of either Texas, Houston, or Seattle. I hope we can win 2 and worry about who starts games 1 and 2 in round, but anything can happen in a single baseball game, and we have shown our offense turtles when in the playoffs.

I know this has been discussed a ton, but I wanted to point out some things that have not been discussed much as to who to go with game 3. The discussion has mainly been Ryan versus Maeda, with some talk about Ober. Most talk is Ober is not the guy because of recent slide, most think due to never pitching this many innings in a season before. When you look at his numbers in second half, he has given up more HR, and his walk/K rate is much worse. I would not run him out for a game 3 deciding game. I for awhile thought I would start Maeda because he is the vet, and has been on a bit better run of late. He also tends to not give up as many HR as Ryan has. Ryan could get blown up quickly. However, after looking at the home road split my mind got changed. Joe Ryan has 13 home starts and 14 road starts. Maeda has 8 home starts and 12 road starts. Ryan has put up much better numbers at home. He more K's at home, despite 1 less game. He gives up less HR per 9 at home. Batting average, On base percentage, and slugging allowed is all better at home, but a wide margin. Why is this, not sure have not done that deep of a dive, but the number sure look like something is better for him at Target Field. If we assume he is going to be 3rd or 4th starter, that means if we go to 3 games in first round, he will either start game 3 at home in round 1, or if we advance game 1 in second round on the road, and Maeda would do the reverse. When you look at Maeda's splits, he has better road numbers than home. His slash numbers are about as reverse for the road and in line with what Ryan does at Target Field than when Maeda is away from it. These are some extreme splits for whatever reason Maeda pitches much better away than at home. So to maximize Ryan and Maeda, we should have Ryan pitch game 3 if needed, and Maeda would pitch game 1 in second round. Now ideally we win in 2 games, then I run Maeda out for game 1 in second round, and hopefully whoever is game 1 starter in first round, assuming Lopez, will be on enough rest for game 2, and then Ryan could pitch game 4 at home, maximizing that split again. With how extreme Maeda's and Ryan's splits are I feel like they cannot be ignored and we should ride with them. There may be other reasons to make the call, but I hope the team does look at the home road splits and unless they know of a good reason why they are so extreme and they would be negated by other factors, it should be part of decision making.

I agree that Funderburk should be on the roster to add that 2nd lefty. There will be times where we really could use a lefty and if you have overused Thielbar or already used him we will not have one. I would go Ryan game 3, if needed. His home road splits are very in favor of pitching home, where Maeda does better on road.

Bwar has McLain ahead of Steer. McLain has better OPS+ and OPS generally. He plays much better defense. The only reason Steer has better counting numbers is because he has 200 more at bats. They are close, but I would go McLain over Steer too.

Betts and Acuna have similar WAR, but Acuna has the better offense numbers, Betts makes up the difference on defense. Acuna being the 5th ever 40-40 player, leading league in most offensive numbers will give him the nod.

Really with the teams the Twins are facing going 7-1 is not out the question, not likely but they are 3 of the worst teams in baseball right now. I am not counting on us catching the number 2 spot but there is a chance. Houston has been doing their best to not run away with it at least, and really Seattle and Texas are playing for the final playoff spot in a best of 7 series, with 3 game series as a break between.

I would not throw Varland into the highest leverage roll when he has never been in it, unless you have little choice. Yes, in his very SSS of relief pitching he has done well, outside his one appearance against Mets with 2 solo shots. That really is his issue is his HR he gives up. It is possible, without looking deeper into his HR issue, giving up 1 HR ever 4 innings, he could be more effective as a relief guy. Some guys when they reduce the pitch mix and increase effort for the 1 or 2 innings being asked they do better there, if the third or forth pitch is what they give up the HR on. Duran may be not as lights out as we want of late, but he still is the best option we have overall, and has the mentality to do the job. Varland strikes out less, walks a few less, but ratio is about the same, but Varland gives up HR at a much higher rate. Do not be fooled by 4 good relief outings. I still like Varland, but would not want to hand him the ball in a 1 run game in playoffs in 9th compared to Duran.

I personally do not think much of the Blue Jays. I do not think their pitching is that great. Gausman is clearly good, but Berrios is very up and down, as we know. When he is on he can be one of best, but he also can give up a lot of runs quickly. They do have a strong overall offense. To me it does not matter which team we play, each team we are facing will be a tough team overall.

It is early to dub him the next Kirby, but he clearly has a similar personality to go with great skill. If Lewis can grow over same time as Puckett did, we are in for some great things. They are no where the same type of player/hitter, but I get the post is more about the leader. Lewis clearly wants to play every day no matter how he feels. He wants to help the team win, and loves to come up with big hits. All similar to Puckett.

Greene was a potential 2 way player as well coming out. Some talked about giving him that chance, but Reds never did. I am good with Lewis over everyone so far. Greene has the velo, but walks way too many be a top pitcher in the league. He averages 5 innings a start, because he throws a lot of pitches. If he ever learns to pitch he could be great, but he is league average pitcher right now. Yeah, he got a ton of strike outs against a team that strikes out a ton. He averages about 12 per nine. but he also walks 4 per 9.

The reaction I saw of Lewis was not that of a significant injury, but someone who was upset they were taking him out for an injury. When he had the core issue, he clearly knew he was hurt for a period of time, but with this when Tingler was coming out of dugout, Lewis clearly was telling him he was fine to stay in, and Tingler told him no. If Lewis knew he had a significant injury he would not have argued with the manager and trainer to stay in. That is how I saw the interaction.

It is not the clock at this point, it would require someone to go on 60 day, and ask the league for a waiver to use him in the playoffs at this point. My guess the league would not give waiver, unless it was either Lewis or CC that went on the 60 day IL, instead someone else. I could be wrong, but my guess that is consideration as well.

I hope Stewert can get enough rehab to play in playoffs. I am a little worried because he has never had the track record he did early in year that he can be depended on, but who knows.

The way Lewis reacted after the swing I am hopeful it is minor. He was clearly trying to argue to stay in an play, and was told hell no. When he hurt his core, he got upset right away, this time he seemed upset he was coming out more so. I could be wrong, but the fact he appeared to be fighting to stay in gives me some hope.

I am not convinced Texas makes the playoffs. If they do, they could be tough matchup by throwing all those lefties at us. However, they have been streaky this year. Also, their offense is top heavy now, with the rest of the line up really holding them back at the bottom now. If they get on a hot streak again, they will be a tough out no matter who faces them though. They did have one of the top teams for first half so they will not be an easy out, but we did have some good comebacks against their pen this year.

You bring up the question, do you look at overall numbers for the year, or what numbers they put up during the time they did play and look to extrapolate out? I think the voters generally look at overall year numbers. Take De La Cruz from Reds for example. he lit the baseball world on fire when he first came up in June, and still did okay in July, for about 50 games. However last 40 plus games he has been terrible overall. Had he got injured after June or early July missing the rest of the season, do you reward what he did in the 30 to 40 games where he looked like MVP? Yes, Lewis has played more, he will play just over 1/3 of the season. Gunner Henderson will play nearly 4/5 of the season. Lewis is on pace should he have played the full year, to have like a 7 or 8 WAR, well beyond Henderson, but fact is Henderson WAR is around a 6 and Lewis is not likely to pass 3. When playing Lewis is looking to be the better overall player and contribute more than Henderson, but in this year, Henderson has given more to his team, because he has played. Personally, I think Lewis should finish second behind Henderson.

If Lewis had a full year he would be looking at the front runner. Jung was running away with it, until he got hurt. Then Henderson took a huge lead, helping lead a team most thought had no chance of making playoffs, to possibly 2nd best record in baseball at end of season. Lewis has been setting records and hopefully will be the better player, but for this season it should go to Henderson. He is also playing good defense at SS. Just think that Baltimore also has the top prospect and possible ROY next year too.

International pitching prospects are very rare generally. They sometimes develop, but if you look at the top international guys, very few are signed as pitchers. Trying to project a 16 or 17 year old pitcher is never going to be easy. Even highly talked about HS pitchers still are a high miss rate. In terms of the position players, E-Rod is a top guy. The rest of the international guys are really too young to tell what we got from them. Most are signed at 16 or 17 so takes at least a couple of years to even make full season ball normally.

I would not bet even money, but for right odds. My main point is that they are in an interesting situation, that they could push themselves into the picture because of who they play and who else plays each other. Unlike Cleveland who does not play us, they cannot control most of their own fate. However, Yankees do have a chance to control most of their own fate. It will take an insane run, but they can force the issue. I think it unlikely, but if Cleveland still had 6 games against us we would be talking about that situation more.

Defensive metrics grade Bellinger out as average CF right now, with having him negative runs saved. He used to be very good out there I would agree, but clearly over the last three years he has regressed in that area. Could he regain it, maybe, but just because he was very good in his early 20's does not mean he still is now. The numbers reflect major regression over last few years. If we could sign him I would not say do not play him out there, but you are mainly going to be signing for his offense not his defense at this point. I am also worried he may go back to what he did 2 years prior over what he did this year with Cubs. If he would not have been down right terrible his age 25 and 26 seasons he would up for one of biggest contracts in game. He is going to ask for that, pointing to past MVP and what he did this year, but 2 years of terrible play will hurt his offers. I am sure some team will give him a like a 7 or 8 year deal with opt out after 3 to see if he plays well enough to try and cash in again at age 31 free agent.

It is not too early to talk on here, but too early for FO to worry right now. I would not go Bellinger, he will be costly and is really not a CF, he is below average defense there. I would not look to move Lewis there, not because he got injured, but because he has hardly played there, he is doing just fine at 3rd, and he made a statement that suggests he will not be a good defender there in future. He made statement that the injury was not worth the effort on the play. Which in hindsight that is true, but if he is out there thinking should I try to catch this ball, will I get hurt, that will make him hesitate and that will not be good for him or the team. I would bring in someone like Taylor, if not bring him back on a 1 year cheap deal, then see if Buck can do it, if not we see if Martin can build on what he did this year in AAA and similar to what we did with rookies this year, transition him in as year goes on. You can always make trades from out infield depth too.