Trov

This will be interesting to see how it affects his FA situation. He still will be able to hit, but will he get the mega deal we expected, or will it be shorter term deal, or maybe one with incentives based on innings pitched each season.

I was going to comment similar. Over the last month he is slashing .375/.474/.656 with OPS of 1.131 those are crazy numbers. He has walked 12 times struck out 10 over that time, hit 5 HR, power has been his big nock, stole 7 bases caught 2 times. Those are numbers over last 28 days. I saw a couple of the HR and they were no doubters not wall scrapers too. Not sure if it is just SSS or something has clicked, but if he can do anything close to what he is doing right now at AAA he should get called up for stretch run and possibly help us in playoffs. Sometimes need to ride hot bats and even if that all this is, why not see what he could do up here.

I read an interesting ESPN article about the Angels and the last 20 years, most last 10, of failing as a team. They highlighted big name free agent signings that failed, failed drafts, even worse over last decade. It got me thinking about the Padres of recent years too and how both teams have tried to build through big trades, and big signings that have not paid off yet, and how some fans have begged for us to be like them. The Angels have spent the last decade trying to build around Trout(played his first full season 2012 at age 20, getting second in MVP and 8.7bwar) and recently Otani have been touted as best players of generations and possibly ever. However, the Angels have failed to build around them. Trout has been injured much of recent years, noting he is now on the bottom half of his prime, but when healthy still puts up great numbers. However, the team would go out and sign big name after big name in hopes of winning it all. Pitching was always their main downfall. They were never afraid of signing big money deals, but for whatever reason they never were able to get over the hump. They also were never willing to go full all in rebuild like Houston did. Looking at Padres, they were a bottom payroll team and losing team for several years. Going back to 2014 they were a team in a pitchers park with no real direction of a team. A mix of vets and young guys with some decent pitching but little offense. In 2015 they decided to jumpstart their team with some trades of big game James Sheilds, the upton brothers and signing Matt Kemp. The Upton brothers and Kemp did fine, but pitching failed them. More moves come, trades and signings but more losses mount. Two years of more loses and then out of no where Padres spend huge on Hosmer. Many questioned the deal at the time, and it never paid off, but showed things to come. Many trades were being made as well. 2019 Manny Machado signs a huge deal, but pitching is still lacking. Tatis Junior is all the talk of the team 20 year old that put up bwar of 4.6 as a rookie. They got him for James Shields from White Sox, always love throwing that in when talking about trading top prospects for aging pitchers. 2020 comes they make moves for Mike Clevenger, and finally things look up for team in the short 2020 season. 2021 they bring in new pitching, Snell, Musgrove, and Darvish, but overall the team fails. 2022 their pitching comes around and they make trade for Soto, but fall in playoffs, but things look up they were built to win now. Coming into 2023 they are getting Tatis back, all the pitching is returning, they sign Bogaerts to huge deal, they sign Wacha who had great start to season. However, they are 6 games below .500 and no real chance of making playoffs. They have huge money invested for years, and does not appear to be much farm system to speak of. Padres may bounce back next year as health to pitching may help, but with not much farm system they are been grabbing at scraps. They sold everything to win now, and risked it all on every one having career years. Their bullpen is overall bad, outside of free agent to be Hader. They can go out and sign more guys, but trades will be hard to do now. Both teams have tried to win with making trades and free agent signings only to have little results with at best 1 good year. It is a way to build a team, but neither team, the Angels even more so, have shown much direction. The Padres in last 3 years have said we are all in and we do not care, but as each year passes they farm system is depleted, and their contracts will start to look worse and worse. It is a caution that spending big money and making big trades will not always equal success. Even brining in young stars that are best in the world does not mean you will win long term. Building a team, in my opinion requires depth at the farm system, something the Twins have shown this year. As injuries set in this year, or poor play of some others, we had guys to turn to, and now we are facing too many guys that deserve at bats, which is a good thing. Any fans that want the Twins to trade off all top prospects and buy all top free agents should look at these teams of what could go wrong. There are other teams that have made big signing that go no where too, but these teams have had interesting attempts over last 10 years.

When Buck is hitting like MVP he can DH, but when he is not, he needs to play in field. There was many debates about DH for ex amount of games or CF for 81 games, making assumptions that he would stay healthy as a DH. I argued that most of his injuries in his history has not been from playing the OF, but from running bases and hitting. Yes, he has had some injuries from playing OF, but as shown again this year, he will get injured just hitting, so taking away what he does best in trying to get him to be just a hitter really is not best for club. Hopefully he can play CF, but unless he can hit at MVP level, he should not be taking DH at bats from guys that are hitting better than he is. Just because he is getting paid like he is, we should not just send him out there to fail for us. I hope he can play CF even as a part time situation. Give him a few games out there to see if he can do it playoff time, because him manning CF at his normal level, and hitting even average will be best for us.

I remember early in 2019 it was pointed out the aggressive swinging of the team early in counts. Kepler has been doing that. I have always said if you go up looking for a particular pitch swing no matter the count. What I have liked about Kepler right now is he is willing to drive outside pitches to LC gap, where he used take those pitches more often looking for the inside pitch.

Outside of Otani there is nothing too great in FA wise to fit the timeline of payroll. Yes, we have some cheaper guys next couple of years, but the better they do, the more they will cost us even in the 3 years of arb years. There are a couple of middle of road pitchers that will be looking for 4 to 6 year deals is my guess. Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Julio Urías, Eduardo Rodriguez are the top starters that would be looking to get new big deals. Kershaw would be a type to try to sign to a 1 or 2 year big money deal, but he is never likely to leave Dodgers. For the right price I would be willing to sign any of those guys, but most will be looking for longer term deals that could be an issue at end of the deal when we will need to start to pay guys like Lewis. There are no Verlander/Scherzer type starters that are older and will take bigger 1 to 2 year deals, or guys that need to do prove it type deals outside of Severino from Yankees, he has been terrible this year after looking like a top arm for years. Do we want to gamble on that? In terms of pen arms, Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, are all some end of pen options that could be had on 1 to 2 year deals, but they are all aging and have had struggles at times in past, bouncing back this year, but any one of them could fall off the cliff too. I would be fine with going after 1 or 2 of them on 1 to 2 year deals. Hader I would be willing to look at 3 year deal but I never want to give a relief guy more than that. In terms of trades too early to speculate on that. The issue with trades of a top starting pitcher will be hard to do because it will require giving up some of young top talent, that allows us to have a low payroll. Someone wrote about going all in for Otani, on a crazy high per year short term deal, would he go for it? If so, I would be all in on that idea, but my guess he will take the longer term super high value deal than short term high annual value.

Keep in mind 3 of the guys drafted ahead of Jenkins are college guys, of which they all will likely lose their prospect status before Jenkins even makes Majors, unless Jenkins just goes ham next year. Skene was mentioned if needed could have just went right to majors, only reason he will be held back is that Pirates may want to control him longer. That is the thing with rankings too is as guys fall off others move up, and sometimes the top whatever are a lot weaker top whatever because the top say 5 to 10 all moved off the list, so a guy that was say top 20 now may be a top 10 but did nothing to move up other than no get worse.

It is not about rather playing bad veterans over take a chance on young players, but roster moves have a ripple affect. Lets say early in year we cut Gallo, Farmer, Polanco, a number of pen pitchers that are vets. If the young guys produce great, if they do not, who do we have to turn to? Even worse, what happens when they get hurt, as many players need even 10 days on IL from time to time. If we cut all our vets, understanding we cannot send them to minors, then we are forced to bring up even younger guys, most likely not ready to play. You have to sometimes think more than one move ahead, and have backup plans. Everyone wondered why we brought in MAT in off season, and assumed he would be 4th outfielder. However, FO knew Buck was less likely to play CF. If Buck could great, but we needed a backup plan because they did not believe Celistino was the option. The fact that we have so many guys pushing the MLB roster is a good thing, and a sign of depth we have. We did send Julien and Wallner down initially, but now they have forced they way back into lineup. However, where would we be if we would have sent vets packing and either get hurt?

To compare Neto to Lee situation is not a fare way to compare. This FO is more than willing to bring up guys under 24, if the player shows they can be better than what we got, or injuries force the hand. AK started a playoff game at age 22, then started regular season age 23. Royce Lewis called up at 23, and if he did not miss the full season prior, most likely would have been called up at age 22. Jose Miranda called up at 23, turned 24 later that season. Gilberto Celestino, due to need, was called up at 22. Simeon Wood Richardson got his first start last September at age 21, and many thought he would contribute this year, then regressed and one terrible start this year at MLB level and bad start to season in AAA. He is doing better now, but to say the FO never calls up guys until 24 or older just is not supported by data. Outside of Neto and Lee, everyone else from last year draft are below AAA. Neto is not lighting world on fire in Majors, but he is best LA has at SS right now. He is playing well for a 22 year old, just a few days older than Lee, but Angels really have no other choices, but the Twins have other choices to play infield above Lee. We have CC, Lewis, Julien, Polanco all as guys that can play. I would bet if Lee showed he was by far the best player to play out of them, they would give him a chance. Each team has their own situation, and sometimes a player gets pushed faster because the team has no other options. Sometimes injuries force hands one way or another.

They have a ton of kids at that level they give time to play, so a lot of days off from games, but they are still working in the complex daily. Really, I think most in organizations feel the work off the field will tell them more than the time on the field most of the time. Some guys on defense will not get a ball hit to them all game, teaches you little about how they play on defense. Hitting, they may nothing but fastballs by a pitcher early in counts and swing at them, teaches you nothing about how they handle breaking pitches. Just because they are not in games does not mean they are taking the day off at the complex. Once they get to higher levels things get different.

I doubt Lee will get a call, unless he is just lighting up the next couple of weeks. The reason, is he still has 2 more years before he NEEDS to be added to 40 man. Meaning unless he is going to make team out of spring next year, and he very well may, they can wait to add him to 40 man and save spots for guys that could be rule 5 eligible. Martin and Severino will both have to be added next year I believe, so less of issue adding them now. Chris Williams also would need to be added, but I am not sure team is sold on him as a future guy, I could be wrong. Stevenson I see no point on bringing him up. Kirsey would need to be added to 40 man or risk losing in rule 5, but I doubt they are too worried about losing a 26 year old guy that has not made MLB debut yet. Could he help sure, but he still ranks below many others on roster. I do agree adding a guy for playoff run can be helpful even if just to steal some bases, that is why I would push for Martin when looking at everything else.

No, we do not need to send him out there. His bat has been good to great, but that in part could be because he is getting rest. When you march him out to play every game at either catcher or first, this could have bad affect down the road. We have others that can fill the roll until AK returns.

Peoples over reaction to SSS is crazy. Yes, losing to Detroit is not great, but we have beat teams with better records as well. Any team can beat any team, even in a long series. That is why the WS is not always the better the team.

Happy to see Martin staying hot. Over his last 28 days, he is hitting at elite level, with an OPS 994 with walking about as much as striking out. He may not have the power the Twins seek normally, but I could see him playing CF next year leading off, getting on base and stealing bases. I do not know how he ranks in CF, but if Buck cannot do it, I would rather see Martin hitting over either Taylor or Celistino, unless Martin is just terrible out there. I know his arm is not super strong but if he can make the catches that will be more important.

Is the Keuchel pen suggestion a joke? He will get another start or two, and maybe he shows he can help us seal up the division but no way do I want him on the post season roster. Other than being left handed, he has nothing going for him. He walks too many, strikes out no one. Sure, we could get lucky if he came in with runners on for a double play, but he has 0 k's in 36 batters faced so far this year. Yes, he did well overall in 32 innings in the minors, but so far against MLB hitters he still looks cooked to me.

I know the second paragraph is a bit of a joke, pointing out they where traded, in part due to all our depth. However, to answer the question, if we still had them, Steer and CES would still be in minors and Urshela would be here instead of farmer or castro most likely. Arraez would be playing 1B instead of Salano most likely. CES would be about 5th on the 3rd base depth chart. He would be crushing in AAA but just as he has done in Reds he would be struggling so we would have sent him down. CES in SSS is putting up worse numbers than Gallo.

I think you need to read up on how the 40 man roster works. With neither Prato or Severino on the 40 man roster, both would need to be put on the 40 man roster to be able to be called up in September. This would mean either putting 2 people on the 60 day or DFA 2 guys. I could see Gallo getting DFA, but unlikely anyone else. In addition, if Gallo does get DFA it is unlikely for either of those guys. As for next year, maybe they get added, when other moves get done, but highly unlikely they get added this year.

Every year we talk about how Twins can, and maybe should, spend more on the roster. Fans go back and forth on it. The argument for spending is more you spend the more you win. Arguments against it is that you get tied to players and may spend wrong. There are years where the highest payrolls win the World Series, and years where low payroll win. Looking at this year, the highest payroll, by far is the New York Mets, at 344 mil. They have sold off some of their high priced guys after being below .500 and well out of playoff contention. Next is New York Yankees, who pretty much stood pat at deadline and are in last place in their division, still just above .500 but odds of making playoffs not good. Their payroll comes in at 279 mil. Next is a team compared to Twins by some, the San Deigo Padres, at 252 Mil. They are also below .500 and not likely to make playoffs. They also have sold much of their farm system to load up on talent in recent years. After those top three the playoff bound teams start coming in. the next four in order are Rangers 247 mil, Phillies 245 mil(wild card team most likely) Dodgers 238, and Houston 236(most likely a wild card team) The rangers spent big last year too, but failed to make playoffs. The other three made deep playoff runs, but one thing if you look deep into the roster development for all four teams, their teams were not just built from FA, but from many internal minor league players that came up, and each had traded for or signed big name FA as well. Houston big name signing Jose Abreu has actually been a negative war player. Angels come in just behind the Houston on payroll at 235 mil, but much of that payroll has been injured. They got off to hot start looking like a playoff team, then Trout, and Rondon do what they do and get hurt. Toronto comes in next at 213 mil, and they are fighting for a wild card spot 8.5 out of first but in the wild right now. Atlanta is at 205 mil, and crushing their division up 11.5 over Phillies. The next three teams are all fighting for playoff spots, Giants at 186, Cubs at 185, and Boston at 180. All are fighting for wild card, and cubs trying to win division too. Rockies are next just above league average at 169 mil. They are dead last in division, but one of their highest paid players has been hurt much of year. White Sox come in just below the league average payroll at 162 mil, and sporting a 4th place record and sold at deadline. Twins are next at 154, holding first place being only non selling team in division. Their highest paid players on offense have been some of the least valuable players as well. Just behind Twins at 152 mil is St. Louis, a last place team. Seattle is at 134 mil, fighting for wild card spot, with a slightly better win percentage than Twins. Milwaukee at 124 mil are in first place. Detroit at 121 mil are in third place with little chance of making playoffs. Diamondbacks at 118 started off super hot, but after break have fallen off cliff, dropping out of any playoff chances. Miami is at 101 mil fighting for wild card. The bottom 8 teams are a mixed bag. The Reds at 93 mil have surprised many with a hot stretch and was in first place for a bit. They have cooled off still fighting for wild card spot, but their top paid players are not the reason for the surge. The nationals come in at 93 mil as well, and have been near bottom of division all year. KC is at 90 mil, being one of worst teams all year. Cleveland comes in at 88 mil and has been neck and neck with Twins most of year, but sold at deadline. Next two are Tampa at 78 mil and Baltimore at 70 mil. Tampa surged to huge lead at beginning of year, then dropped back to earth in middle months. Baltimore built off of what last year brought and just kept going with their young hitters carrying the team to an AL leading record. Pittsburgh is 29th in payroll at 68 mil, started off hot being in first place in May, but since they have been what was expected, injuries did not help, but they sold at deadline. Then there is Oakland who is doing a real life Major League by actively trying to lose it would seem to force their way out of town. They have a payroll of 58 mil. Not even sure how they got their. A deeper dive into how the high priced players could open some more info, but it is interesting that this year, the top 3 payrolls are not likely to make playoffs, and only the Yankees can point to injury of their top guy, but it shows how lack of depth they really had, even paying Hicks to play now for Baltimore, where he is playing much better for them than he did for New York this year. Other teams have also under performed. Then you have the run of 10 teams in top half of payrolls all either clearly in, or fighting for a playoff spot. Next teams around league average are a mixed bag, either terrible or fighting for first place. Then there are the few very lost payroll teams among best records in league. When you look at how much money is on IL, Angles lead league with 101 mil currently on IL, mostly from Trout and Rondon. Yankees have 80 mil, and had Judge out for a long time as well. Those are the only teams on the high end of payroll that have 25% of payroll on IL. To sum up, high payroll this year, does not fully equate to wins, as the three highest are not making playoffs. However, higher overall payroll seems to help winning as the rest of the above average payrolls, outside of Rockies who are just above average, all are either well on way to playoffs or fighting for it. On the bottom half of payroll, a few teams are fighting for playoff spots, but most are in divisions were no one is paying huge sums. The AL central does not have 1 team in top half of payrolls, with White Sox just below average, and 8 mil more than Twins. Clearly it did not work well for Sox this year. The NL central has 1 team in top half, the Cubs, outside of that everyone has payroll below the Twins. So when compared to teams in the division, Twins are second in payroll, close to Sox, beating them badly, but barely above Cleveland who are last in division in payroll. The NL central the rankings of payroll and standings are a bit all over the place. Pirates are well last in payroll, and tied with Cards for last place, but the Cards are second in payroll behind Cubs. Cubs are essentially tied with Reds for second 3.5 behind Brewers. Then the 2 way low payroll to win ratio of Tampa and Baltimore. Rays are generally always low and have been a good team for years. Baltimore is doing it with young kids that are crushing getting league min. I think generally higher payroll will generally result in more wins, but clearly that is not always the fact. Really, if you look at the Twins, the high priced guys outside some pitching, they are not carrying the team, but the younger guys have been. This overall makes sense when you look at how things work. Even if you are not going out buying big name FA, when you have a controlled guy in arbitration you need to pay more for their production they give you. So even if you have younger team overall, if they are in arbitration years, they will cost you more if they perform well. So no matter how a roster is built if it is built by bring up guys through system and retaining them through arbitration years, or bringing in a ton of high priced FA, you will be spending more. Baltimore will need to raise payroll in a couple of years or trade away the young guys making league min that are carrying their team. However, I would also say, that just trying to trade for and buy FA will not equal wins either. Padres and Mets have shown that can be an issue. Part of the question is, does payroll equal wins, or will wins equal payroll to maintain?

If AK cannot return to form, and Lee gets hot quickly, then the move makes some sense, but that is a lot of ifs. However, Lee will needed to be added to 40 man roster in next two weeks, or someone will have to get injured in September and cannot return is my understanding of the rules. The Twins will only add Lee to 40 man if they know for sure they will call him up, because they will not want to DFA someone just for the chance Lee will contribute. That means he has 2 weeks to show he would contribute and then I could see a Lee for Gallo swap, but keep in mind some other guys may be coming off 60 man IL soon, which will complicate the 40 man roster situation.

This was the same debate we had with Polanco at SS years ago. Do we deal with subpar defense for better offense? For this year, I would say overall yes, because we do not have a clear better option, but long term no because we should have better options on defense with similar offense profile. 2nd should be filled by Lee or Lewis with the other playing 3rd for years to come, or until CC needs to move to 3rd, but either way 2nd should be filled by one of them. Julien should be moved off 2nd, or we should look to shop him like we did Arraez. I know people went crazy for Julien after his crazy hot stretch, but if you go outside his crazy hot stretch in July he has been just slightly above average, and in August he has been well below average at the plate. Clearly adjustments against him has been made, and he needs to adjust. I never go head over heals for rookies that have a hot stretch SSS. I am not saying he will not be a good hitter, he has all the makings of it, but there are many a hitter we over value in rookie years. I do hope umps stop ringing him up on balls clearly outside the zone. Many strike outs are on called strike 3 when they are well outside the box on the broadcast. Many times on pitches way inside or outside. Maybe getting the robo umps or challenges next year will help that.

I know wins are not something to care too much about, but I still think voters look at it a little bit. Cole or Eovaldi will get the Cy young, barring a huge drop off by both. Cole has better numbers as well, he has more games pitched, strike outs, and lower ERA. Eovaldi is best pitcher on one of best teams, voters care about that too. Sonny should be talked about, but he started off super hot, then leveled off a bit and no run support and bad pen outings cost him some. If he ends as hot as he started he will get votes, but Lopez is recently been the top guy in our rotation.

SWR has been pitching much better over last month or so. His walks are still up but he is limiting the damage overall. I am hopeful whatever led to his early struggles this year is going away and he can be someone we can count on next year when needed.

Not sure if TD editors or the authors do the links to baseball reference pages, but the Austin Martin link is not to the Twins Austin Martin. The link on this page takes you to an Austin Martin a relief pitcher pitching for Goshin College in Indiana. That particular Austin Martin did not have a good season pitching either.

For all we know they have behind the scenes and he was been terrible? People underestimate how valuable a good first baseman can be, and how a bad one can cost a ton of runs. I agree with the idea, but it is possible they have given him reps there in practice and he has been terrible. I think in the off-season they need to make him learn the position more, because we have too many good hitting and much better defending infielders ready to push him.

I do not understand how baseball has changed so much when it comes to players like him and Kyle Schwarber continue to get paid and play as much as they do. I get it that HR have huge value in the game, and so when you can do it, we do not care how much they hit nothing but HR. Personally, I find their style of hitting boring and not worth watching. I hate just watching either HR or strike out for most part. I believe MLB is trying to get more entertainment and action back into the game, and players like them will be looked down on again. We used to think if you hit under .200 it did not matter how much power you had, because you were not helping the team win. Now, as long as you OPS is high enough we do not care if you strike out 50% of time because your overall "value" is there. I used to get annoyed when Mauer would take a walk with runner on third and less than 2 outs when he would let a strike go right down the middle, then we would not score in the inning. I would take that now over watching the amount of strikeouts Gallo throws up.